AL Cy Young Award Rankings: Justin Verlander Making a Run at a Repeat

A full week has passed since I last updated my American League Cy Young rankings. It's time to update them again.

This time last week, Los Angeles Angels ace Jered Weaver was the clear favorite for the AL Cy Young. The Texas Rangers then proceeded to absolutely destroy him on Sunday.

Weaver's claim to the Cy Young was weakened as a result. Fortunately for him, several other notable AL Cy Young pursuers have also gone through some struggles recently.

All except one. Justin Verlander has been pitching quite well recently, and it's looking now like he may actually be the man to beat in the American League.

That's a question that will be answered within. Here are my updated rankings for the top-five AL Cy Young contenders.

5. Derek Lowe, Cleveland Indians

Last Week: Unranked

Very quietly, Derek Lowe is having an outstanding season for the Cleveland Indians.

Lowe shut out the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday, upping his record to 6-1 and lowering his ERA to an AL-best 2.05. He's been hot lately, compiling an ERA of 1.28 in his last four starts.

Naturally, Lowe is getting it done thanks to his sinker. Per FanGraphs, his ground-ball rate is up over 63 percent this season, which is high even for him. He does have a pretty high WHIP, but he's left a lot of runners stranded so far this season. His LOB percentage is nearly 83 percent.

Common sense suggests that Lowe's luck is bound to run out eventually. He's playing with fire in putting so many runners on base, and it's just a matter of time before the habit comes back to bite him.

Maybe not. Lowe is pitching a lot right now like he did back in 2002, when he won 20 games and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting.

As long as Lowe's sinker is working, he'll be a tough guy to face.

4. Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

Last Week: No. 3

Jake Peavy entered his start on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers with an AL-best 1.89 ERA. He was pitching as well as any hurler in the American League.

And then he came back down to earth. The Tigers beat Peavy like a drum, as he gave up nine hits and six earned runs over 5.1 innings pitched. An absolutely brutal sixth inning did him in.

Peavy's record now sits at 4-1, and his ERA. is all the way up to 2.65.

Nonetheless, his Cy Young candidacy is still strong. The one brutal inning he suffered through on Tuesday is by far the worst inning he's had this year, but the vast majority of the others have been excellent. 

The way he's pitching, Peavy is going to be in the Cy Young race all year long.

...Unless he gets traded to the National League.

3. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

Last Week: No. 1

Jered Weaver went into his start against the Texas Rangers on Sunday with a perfect 5-0 record and 1.60 ERA.

The Rangers didn't have any trouble whatsoever hitting Weaver. He gave up eight earned runs in 3.1 innings on 10 hits and a walk. It was his shortest start since 2009.

Weaver's record is now 5-1, and his ERA jumped from 1.60 to 2.83. Yuck.

But just like with Peavy, Weaver is still in the mix because the rest of his body of work is very strong. He's only made two subpar starts all season. The rest have been really good, and he, of course, threw a no-hitter on May 2 against the Minnesota Twins.

Weaver's WAR is 1.8, according to FanGraphs. Only Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy are ahead of him in that category in the AL, and Peavy's WAR hasn't yet been adjusted to account for his stinker against Detroit.

2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Last Week: No. 2

Felix Hernandez took a loss against the New York Yankees his last time out, giving up four earned runs on 11 hits and two walks in 6.2 innings.

Hey, at least he lasted 6.2 innings, and the damage caused by those 11 hits and two walks could have been a lot worse.

Hernandez's 3-2 record doesn't look all that great, but pretty much everything else looks solid. He has a 2.29 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and an AL-best 58 strikeouts. His WAR is 1.7, according to FanGraphs.

Just as important, Hernandez is leading the American League in innings pitched, with 59. He has pitched at least 6.1 innings in all eight of his starts, and he's lasted at least seven innings in six of them.

Hernandez is a workhorse, and this year, he's pitching a lot like he did in 2010. He won the Cy Young that year, and he's making a run at another this year.

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Last Week: No. 5

The AL Cy Young race is closer right now than it's been all season, but Justin Verlander has a slight edge on the competition.

All of Verlander's numbers look good. He's got a 4-1 record, 2.47 ERA, an AL-best 0.87 WHIP and 56 strikeouts. His WAR is an AL-best 2.0, according to FanGraphs.

Like Hernandez, Verlander has been a workhorse. He's pitched at least six innings in all eight of his starts this year. In fact, he's lasted at least six innings in each of his last 50 starts.

Verlander's most recent start was a vintage Verlander performance. He went seven innings against the Oakland A's, giving up one run on just two hits and a walk while striking out eight. He could have kept going, but a bleeding callus on his right thumb forced him to make an early exit.

His Cy Young candidacy is strong now, and the odds are good that it's only going to get stronger. On May 15 last year, Verlander was 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA. He, of course, went on to win 24 games with a 2.40 ERA on his way to winning both the MVP and the Cy Young.

A similar hot streak could be in the cards.

Last Week's Rankings

5. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

He's shot up the rankings, partially due to his own pitching and partially due to subpar pitching from the competition.

4. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

His most recent start was pretty ugly.

3. Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

He's hanging in there, but he finally showed his humanity on Tuesday.

2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Steady as she goes.

1. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

Not even he could tame the Rangers.

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