Chicago Cubs: Is Matt Garza Worthy of a Long-Term Extension?

Matt Garza is a good starting pitcher on a bad baseball team.

The 2011 Cubs finished 71-91, but Garza was sixth in the National League in both FIP and WAR. At 28, Garza is in the prime of his career. Unfortunately for the Cubs, this likely means that Garza's best years will coincide with their worst years under the Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer-led regime. Epstein and Hoyer must decide if signing Garza to a long-term extension is a better decision than trading him for prospects.

The argument for trading Garza is based upon the belief that Epstein and Hoyer will need three to five seasons to turn the Cubs into a contender. By trading Garza for prospects, now, the Cubs will acquire young talent that will become key contributors when the Cubs are ready to contend.

However, trading away high-quality starting pitchers is a risky move that rarely brings back equal talent. In addition, the Cubs farm system is not well stocked with young arms. There are no Cubs minor league pitchers ranked in Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects.

With no guarantee that a trade will bring back productive players, and no promising pitchers in their farm system, it is imperative that the Cubs sign Garza to a long-term extension. 

If Epstein and Hoyer are successful in building winning baseball teams, Garza is young enough that he can be a key contributor on those teams. In five years, Garza will only be 33 years old. Garza would still be young enough that he could contribute to the Cubs' success. His previous playoff experience, which includes starting and winning Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS, will be a valuable commodity to a Cubs teams chasing a title.

Matt Garza is more valuable to the Cubs as a starting pitcher than as a trade piece. Epstein and Hoyer need to include Garza in their plans for rebuilding, and sign him to a long-term extension.