Fantasy Football 2012: Drew Brees Analysis After Sean Payton Suspension

I'm neither prepared nor comfortable to offer any knee-jerk assessments of Drew Brees' fantasy value in the wake of the NFL suspending Saints head coach Sean Payton for a full season (starting April 1). Without a doubt, Payton is one of the league's most respected offensive minds and play-callers, but his absence also doesn't presume that Brees will be lost without him; or that the Saints, on the whole, will be a rudderless group in 2012.

This much is certain, though: Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (4,643 yards passing, 48 total TDs last year) is the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy quarterback heading into next season, a status that will not change throughout the spring and summer. Neither Brees nor Matthew Stafford or Tom Brady has the track record, supporting cast and enough positive mojo to usurp the top spot from Rodgers, the reigning NFL MVP.

Yes, Stafford has the capacity for another 5,000-yard/40-TD season, and yes, Brady (5,235 yards passing, 42 total TDs in 2011) has the superb triumvirate of Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd at his disposal. But barring major injury, Rodgers stands alone as the Big Cheese at his position (dairy-themed pun intentional).

Even with Payton in the fold, Brees would have been a long shot to replicate last year's numbers (46 TDs/NFL-record 5,476 yards passing), including career highs in pass attempts (468) and completion percentage (71.2). A lot would have to go right for Brees to shatter his own NFL record in consecutive years. On the flip side, a lot would have to wrong for him to finish below 4,500 yards and 34 touchdowns—we're talking something more substantial than New Orleans having seven outdoor games in the 2012-13 season.

Perhaps something like...Brees not signing his franchise-tag tender until after training camp begins.

There will be plenty of time to reclassify the QB rankings. But for now, I'll maintain the same order from the "Top 25 Quarterbacks Right Now" list. I simply won't overreact to one of the most prolific passers in league history missing his muse.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.