2012 NFL Draft: Best & Worst Case Scenarios for the Chicago Bears

When I wrote this very same titled article last week, I used only player names to gauge the best vs. the worst possible scenarios for each round. This time, I'm looking at situations and names that could affect the Bears' draft plans.

For example, if there is a run on a certain position earlier than expected, the player(s) Chicago is targeting may all be gone, forcing the team to look elsewhere.

With all of the needs facing the Bears, there really isn't a lot of depth in this draft other than at the wide receiver position.

So, using the strategy of taking the best player available might be in the team's best interests.

What happens is a bunch of guys get into the "war" room with a large chalk or electronic board with the names at each position ranked in order of preference.

As guys get picked, the names get scratched off and when the team's turn comes around, you look at either the best player at a position of need or simply the best player overall.

That said, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Bears in the draft.  

First Round

The Bears are in a challenging position in that the best player in the first round could be a wide receiver, yet they have a head coach focused on defense and just acquired a receiver via trade.

That said, of course it would help if good players from several positions were still available at No. 19, so the Bears could win no matter which direction they chose.

With the first pick, the Bears must take a player who can start and contribute immediately. They need to stay away from players with injury histories so they can avoid another Gabe Carimi-like blowout.

They need another wideout, a left tackle, a cornerback and a defensive end, not necessarily in that order.  

Best-Case Scenario: Michael Floyd and/or Melvin Ingram are still on the board.

With this scenario, the Bears could go defense and take an explosive pass rusher to complement Julius Peppers. Ingram looked so good at the combine that he is expected to be gone, but stranger things have happened.

Meanwhile, if Floyd is on the board (he, too, enjoyed an outstanding combine) they may need to go against their better wishes (they do NOT want to draft a WR in the first round, I assure you) since Floyd is definitely a good value at No. 19.

This way, they can avoid reaching for Stephen Hill. Plus, with Floyd and Marshall on the field at the same time, opposing defenses will go nuts trying to scheme against the Bears offense. 

Worst-Case Scenario: An early run on wideouts, left tackles, corners and defensive ends.

Imagine if Ingram, Floyd, Hill, Dre Kirkpatrick and Jonathan Martin are all gone. It could happen. What would be left for the Bears, other than to trade down?

I don't like the off-field history of Janoris Jenkins, and there would be no other wideout I would draft at No. 19. A defensive end like Vinny Curry would be a stretch this early, and Martin is the only LT expected to be available this late.

I'm starting to like the idea of the Bears taking Martin, so if he's gone too, the Bears could stretch for a guy like Mike Adams, and I don't like that. Alternatively, they could take center Peter Konz and while I like him, the Bears have more pressing needs.

Second Round

The Bears need to find someone who can contribute this early in the draft to show that new GM Phil Emery is a better talent evaluator than his predecessor.

I also feel the Bears need to take a WR or a CB here if they want one that can be a starter. Starting with the third round, those positions will be for depth and not starters for the most part. 

Best-Case Scenario: A slower-than-expected run on defensive ends.

If this happens, the Bears can wait until the second round and still get a quality end who can possibly start alongside Peppers.

Vinny Curry is an option, but since the Bears don't pick until No. 50, he could be gone if DEs are prioritized by other teams. 

Worst-Case Scenario: A run on wide receivers.

Assuming the Bears avoid taking a WR in the first round, they will absolutely need to take one in the second or third round. But by No. 80 there is no guarantee a good, tall wideout will still be there, so the second round is the better bet.

However, if there is an early run on wideouts, by No. 50 all the top guys could be gone—Blackmon, Floyd, Hill, Wright (too short anyway), Sanu, Jeffery, Streeter, McNutt, Randle, et al.

Unless the Bears reach for one of the lesser wideouts, a bad move in a round that should produce a starter, they will be forced to go with what they have.

And while they are upgraded with the addition of Marshall, I feel they need another solid WR.  

Third Round

This is the round where the Bears absolutely must draft a WR or a CB if they haven't yet done so. By this round, the chances of landing an immediate starter at either position are slim, but still possible.

Best-Case Scenario: Some taller wideouts and good CBs are available.

If guys like Tommy Streeter (raw but 6'5" with speed), Justin Criner (6'3" with a phenomenal Senior Bowl but a slow 40 at the combine) and Marvin McNutt defy the odds and are somehow still there at No. 80, the Bears are sitting pretty.

Likewise, I'd love to see Alfonzo Dennard or Trumaine Johnson (6'2") still on the board.

Worst-Case Scenario: An early run on WRs and CBs.

If this occurs, then the Bears will either be forced to reach for depth only and not get a true starter at either position, regretting that they didn't take one in the second round, or look at other positions.

I'd absolutely love to see Kevin Zeitler still here, but I am sure he'll be long gone by No. 80. So, the Bears would end up with a project in the third round.

Fourth Round

By this point, immediate starters are usually very, very hard to come by, so the Bears want players who project well or can contribute in other ways, such as on special teams.  

Best-Case Scenario: A good linebacker (hopefully a middle LB) is still on the board.

If linebackers are not taken as quickly as expected, there is a slight chance there could be a linebacker who can play solid special teams and can help occasionally on defense while learning to replace Brian Urlacher eventually.

Likewise, if offensive linemen are not taken as much as normal, there could be a guard or a center still available that could help the Bears' rotation. Specifically, I'd like to see Audie Cole or Tank Carder still on the board at No. 111.

Center David Molk would be a good pick this late.

Worst-Case Scenario: Safeties, LBs and offensive linemen get taken quicker than expected.

I feel the fourth round is the Bears' last chance to grab a decent offensive lineman who can eventually work his way into the rotation.

Also, a strong safety would be nice, as I am not sold at all on Major Wright. After this round, everything is a crap shoot, so if the positions I've listed are dwindled down to nothing, they will reach for a player with little chance to contribute.

Fifth Round

By this time, I do not feel that a run on a specific position has much bearing on anything. This is where the Bears take a chance on an injured player or hope their scouting sees something the other scouting departments miss. 

Best-Case Scenario: A player with talent but an injury or off-field history drops down.

Imagine if Janoris Jenkins' troubled past makes teams pass on the corner. What a steal (talent-wise) he would be this late in the draft. It probably won't happen, but it would be a great scenario.

Another intriguing thought would be if the horrible combine that Vontaze Burfict had drops him down. He would definitely be worth the risk this late.

Worst-Case Scenario: The Bears draft a developmental QB or a free safety.

I am fine with Chris Conte at free safety. He hasn't solidified the position by any means, but I've seen enough to know that we can let this draft pass by without picking another one.

Meanwhile, if the Bears feel that Nate Enderle is not who they want to develop, they could take a QB and put him on the practice squad.

That would be a bad choice, as we have three QBs so we finally have some depth at the position. And to select a player just to put him on the practice squad is a waste in my opinion, as another team could just steal him away from us.

Sixth Round

The Bears are lucky to be getting a warm body this late, so I'd look for players with upside and versatility.

Best-Case Scenario: An athletic player or someone who can contribute on special teams.

Players with athletic ability may be raw but you can develop them, teach them technique and eventually have something in a couple years.

Likewise, players who can play more than one position, especially those than can be standout special teamers, add value even if they never become regulars. 

Worst-Case Scenario: Drafting for positional need.

This is never a good idea, especially this late. So you pass up a kid with better athleticism or one who can help at multiple positions just because you realize you haven't yet taken a safety, for example?

No thanks.

Seventh Round

By the seventh round, it is important to know which players are likely to become free agents. Why spend a draft pick on someone you can possibly obtain later?

Best-Case Scenario: An overlooked, tall tight end or best player available

A tight end may be harder to find late in the draft than it used to be, given how successful teams have been in utilizing the TE in their offense. But that or simply the best player available is the best way to go this late.

There are statistically a lot of running backs, so maybe one is still on the board that isn't a stiff and can actually help.

Worst-Case Scenario: Drafting to fill a need

As with the last round, you should avoid worrying about which position a guy plays this late and just take the best player available regardless of position.