Fantasy Baseball: Total Bases/OPS Analysis

During the first week of Grapefruit and Cactus League play, it's hard to gauge the fantasy progress of established veterans or potential up-and-comers trying to convert a productive spring into an Opening Day invite. After all, most starting pitchers last only one or two innings in early March, precluding opportunities for hitters to adjust to pitchers twice in games, and vice versa.

Nevertheless, we can glean something from two of my favorite stats that don't appear in 5x5 roto standings: Total Bases and OPS (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging).

Here are the leaders in each category through March 10:

 

Total Bases

Melky Cabrera, Giants: 24
Eric Sogard, Athletics: 17
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs: 17
Brandon Belt, Giants: 16
Sterling Marte, Pirates: 16
Carlos Peguero, Mariners: 16
Dustin Ackley, Mariners: 15
Billy Butler, Royals: 15
Travis Snider, Blue Jays: 15
Mat Gamel, Brewers: 14
Brett Pill, Giants: 14
Delmon Young, Tigers: 14
Jaff Decker, Padres: 13
Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers: 13
Max Ramirez, Royals: 13
Logan Schafer, Brewers: 13
Matt Adams, Cardinals: 12
Elvis Andrus, Rangers: 12
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 12
Brennan Boesch, Tigers: 12
Andre Ethier, Dodgers: 12
Todd Frazier, Reds: 12
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 12
Darnell McDonald, Red Sox: 12
Eric Patterson, Tigers: 12
Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks: 12
Kyle Seager, Mariners: 12
Stephen Vogt, Rays: 12

Breakdown

1. The Giants' Cabrera hasn't lost any momentum from his superb 2011 with the Royals (18 HRs, 87 RBIs, 20 steals, .305 BA), grabbing early honors in both categories. Heading into his age-28 season, perhaps Cabrera isn't a one-year wonder. Perhaps he should be an entrenched member of the Top 40 outfielders and one who'll yield great value in Round 13 of 12-team roto or weekly drafts.

2. Yes, it's early, but Sogard is putting his best foot forward in the race to win the Athletics' third-base competition, just a few weeks after Scott Sizemore was felled by a season-ending injury. Based on his minor-league numbers, Sogard could be a three-category sleeper (runs, steals, BA) in the latter rounds of AL-only leagues.

3. It's only a matter of time before Decker, one of the jewels of the Padres' loaded farm system, forces his way onto the parent club (after June 1). With a little seasoning, Decker could be a four-category factor in the majors...and a 20-20 candidate sooner than later. In leagues that have spots for "minors'"  prospects, Decker is an ideal late-round pick.

4. It's wonderful to see Lawrie, Belt, Lucroy and Snider taking a serious approach to spring ball. All four players have the potential for solid seasons, although the notoriously hot-and-cold Snider will remain a tenuous wild card in fantasy drafts. He's a late-round flier at this point.

OPS (minimum nine at-bats)

Melky Cabrera, Giants: 1.667
Elvis Andrus, Rangers: 1.643
Billy Butler, Royals: 1.500
Albert Pujols, Angels: 1.472
Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: 1.347
Cory Sullivan, Dodgers: 1.280
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 1.279
Daniel Descalso, Cardinals: 1.266
Erick Aybar, Angels: 1.252
Travis Snider, Blue Jays: 1.216
Carlos Peguero, Mariners: 1.211
Brandon Belt, Giants: 1.197
Mat Gamel, Brewers: 1.188
Alberto Callaspo, Angels: 1.182
Jaff Decker, Padres: 1.165
Dan Uggla, Braves: 1.163
Matt Adams, Cardinals: 1.162
J.D. Martinez, Astros: 1.161
Donnie Murphy, Marlins: 1.155
Darwin Barney, Cubs: 1.143
Brent Morel, White Sox: 1.133
Adam Dunn, White Sox: 1.128
Eric Sogard, Athletics: 1.109
Josh Reddick, Athletics: 1.085
Todd Frazier, Reds: 1.083
Alex Gordon, Royals: 1.078
Brandon Wood, Rockies: 1.077
Gordon Beckham, White Sox: 1.071
Alexi Amarista, Angels: 1.067

Breakdown

1. The Indians' Choo currently stands as my No. 18 outfielder in mixed leagues, a lofty ranking that essentially ignores last year's sluggish campaign (8 HRs, 36 RBIs, 37 runs, .259 average). That's not to say I'll be reaching for Choo in Round 7 or 8; it's simply an acknowledgment of his 25-25 potential and four-category track record (2011 aside).

2. It's a fantasy shame that Billy Butler doesn't have 1B eligibility to start the season. He's an annual lock for 18 HRs, 90 RBIs and .295 batting average, and yet, he can only occupy the "UTIL" spot in leagues that don't recognize designated hitters. Butler has excellent value in Round 9 and beyond.

3. Brent Morel will be a four-category factor for the White Sox if he tallies 600 at-bats, and with new manager Robin Ventura calling the shots, perhaps Morel will recapture his 25-steals mojo from 2009 (Single-A level). Heading into his age-25 season, Morel could be a stealth pick from Rounds 22-24.

4. I'll be surprised if Dan Uggla matches his 36-homer output from last season with the Braves. On the flip side, I'll be shocked if he doesn't collect 95 RBIs.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.