2012 NFL Draft: Who Will Perform Best in Each Scouting Combine Drill?
Identifying Combine Warriors can be a tricky business.
"What will you run in the 40?" I overheard a scout ask an unnamed corner prospect in an interview conducted during the week of practices leading up to the 2011 East-West Shrine Game. "Between a 4.3 and 4.4," the player confidently replied, approximately one month before running solidly into the 4.5s at the 2011 NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis.
If only the stopwatches measured good intentions or confidence.
I cannot tell you how many times I have heard about how so-and-so is running 40 times in the 4.2 range in training only to be fantastically disappointed with times in the 4.5 range once they try and prove it in Indianapolis.
At the same time, I also cannot tell you how many guys I have seen jump, run and cut far better (or worse) in skivvies and a pair of shiny new Under Armour cleats than you would have swore from watching them on tape.
But, that certainly does not stop us trying to predict the best combine performances every year. We just cannot help ourselves. Overall, I try not to go rumor-chasing for the players that are supposedly burning up the track at their private training centers. I try and stick with determining explosive and speed factors from the film. If I am way off, it leaves me something to work and improve upon the next year.
That said, let's get to the predictions, shall we?
Bench Press Best in Show: DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
1 of 8You didn't think I would start with the all-important 40-yard dash, did you?
Dontari Poe is a 350-lbs. defensive tackle prospect whose strength coach fully believes he could compete as an elite-level professional lifter if he were to give up football.
I just got done talking about how I try not to chase hot rumors about track and training prowess when it comes to predicting Best in Show performances at the NFL scouting combine, and so now I feel like a hypocrite.
However, the fact of the matter is Poe is a huge, strong player. On tape, his explosiveness and agility at his size are what stand out most, along with his brute strength.
Guys as big and strong as he is often run danger of their arms being too long to have extreme success lifting the 225-lb. bar too many times. I do not foresee this being an issue with Poe, as I do not believe his arms are particularly long.
Wonderlic Best in Show: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2 of 8In horse racing we have a term for someone that always bets on the favorite. We refer to that person as a "chalk-eating weasel." Let me tell you, I feel awful weaselly picking the Stanford graduate for a Best in Show prediction on the infamous Wonderlic exam.
For those that do not know, the Wonderlic exam is a very basic 50-question test that must be completed in 12 minutes. Simple, almost inane questions such as, "What is the ninth month of the year?" are interspersed with more difficult mathematical or logical queries. You are not penalized for wrong answers, so you have every incentive to answer as many questions as possible in the allotted time.
Having taken the exam, I can tell you that it is no picnic, and human resource officers unofficially consider a score of 50 out of 50 to be nearly impossible unless the person taking the test has had training.
The history of the test as it pertains to the NFL is dubious. Not long ago, the test only had a limited number of editions in circulation. Therefore, clever agents were infamously able to obtain past copies of the exam in order to train and familiarize their clients with the exact questions that would likely end up on the test in Indianapolis. While nobody is claiming that exposing a player with the IQ of a doorknob to 300-plus questions he could never hope to even begin to memorize will result in scoring in the high 30s or 40s, the exposure to the exact questions likely to be on the test does provide a boost to your score.
The NFL has commissioned new editions of the Wonderlic to be drawn up every year, which makes studying for the test a little bit more honest, like studying for an SAT or GMAT exam.
Andrew Luck graduated as co-valedictorian of his class at Stratford High School, a school with mean SAT scores about 15 percent above average. He graduated Stanford with a degree in architectural engineering. He is my ringer for best Wonderlic result, and for him I would gladly subject myself to being deemed a chalk-eating weasel.
Pass Speed Best in Show: QB Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
3 of 8I can't be a chalk-eating weasel forever.
In this case I am going to go with a real long shot to topple Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden for best ball velocity on the scouts' radar gun. That long shot is San Diego State's Ryan Lindley.
Weeden once boasted a 97 mph fast ball. His receivers have joked about the ball completing an extra revolution in their hands even after they catch the ball. However, Weeden is 28 years old and the aspect of his throwing that has always drawn my attention has more to do with the clean spin and accuracy he puts on the ball.
The quarterback in this combine who throws it on a frozen rope better than anyone else may actually be the less heralded Lindley, who can throw out patterns that travel 35 to 40 yards through the air without high arc. Lindley is not yet a consistent or accurate thrower of the football, but one thing he definitely has in his tool box is a gun.
Vertical Best in Show: WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
4 of 8Many people expect Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon to take the title as highest jumper in Indianapolis this year. However, not unlike his counterpart Brandon Weeden, I expect an underdog to "rise up" and take the crown.
Michael Floyd has always looked to me to be a highly explosive athlete at Notre Dame. If not for some off-field issues related to alcohol, he would be discussed more seriously as potentially giving Blackmon competition for top receiver honors in the 2012 NFL draft.
I expect Floyd to have a very good combine showing, which could propel him into that discussion despite the past trouble with alcohol-related incidents. His best event should be the vertical, and so he is my pick for Vertical Best in Show.
Broad Jump Best in Show: WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
5 of 8Justin Blackmon can jump. However, I do not believe he will be amongst the most vertically or horizontally enhanced players tested at the 2012 NFL scouting combine. His strengths lie elsewhere.
Nobody can take away the simple fact that Blackmon is an explosive athlete with an incredible catch radius. However, he owes that catch radius more to his incredible body control and concentration than to his pure jumping ability.
Kendall Wright, a former triple and broad jump champion in high school, could and probably should take the broad jump title in Indianapolis this year. Most will have him competing for the best 40-yard dash time. The fact that I have Wright winning the broad jump should indicate to you that I do not expect that to happen.
Wright is absolutely a fast player, but what makes him probably even more dangerous is how explosive he is on his feet. I do not think he will win the title in vertical jump, but I think the broad jump title is attainable for him.
Three Cone Best in Show: WR Devon Wylie, Fresno State
6 of 8You may not have heard of receiver Devon Wylie of Fresno State, but you will just have to trust me when I say the man has the suspension system of an Aston Martin. One of the most difficult decisions I was forced to make in my predictions was whether Wylie will take the pole in the short shuttle or three cone drill. He very well could take both competitions.
As a draft prospect, Wylie is not just a set of Gumby ankles. I saw him practice live during the week leading up to the 2012 East-West Shrine Game, and his ability to adjust on the ball in the air stood out the most among all the receivers in St. Petersburg, Fla., which included some players with big names and deserved reputations.
His eyes for the ball in the air were good, but it was his quick feet and ankle flexion that were primarily responsible for the ability to track and adjust to the ball in the air. At the NFL level, he should prove a gifted slot receiver and punt returner, as long as he can stay healthy.
Short Shuttle Best in Show: RB Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati
7 of 8This is not an easy award to hand to a tailback, as the title usually belongs to a corner or receiver. I just cannot help but be enamored with Cincinnati running back Isaiah Pead's quick burst and cutting ability.
If forced to choose a tailback for this award, I am sure many would choose the more famous LaMichael James of Oregon, or the lightning fast Chris Rainey of Florida. However, there is something about Pead's lateral explosiveness that makes me steer toward him instead.
There will be others vying for this prize. I have already awarded titles to the likes of Devon Wylie of Fresno State as well as Kendall Wright of Baylor. Others that could make a strong push for this title include cornerbacks Asa Jackson of Cal Poly or Morris Claiborne of LSU. Utility man Brandon Boykin of Georgia could make a nice run at the pole position in this event.
However, I keep coming back to Pead, who really turned some heads with his quickness and punt return abilities at the 2012 Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala.
40-Yard Dash Best in Show: RB Chris Rainey, Florida
8 of 8There is just something about the 40-yard dash.
A test that started as a miscellaneous measure of a player's ability to cover punts on special teams has turned into an all-important, overrated and overused yard stick for player speed.
We all know this. We all talk about how overrated it is. But we also assiduously track and calculate the number and brazenly use it to compare players.
The real champion in this event likely would have been Chris Rainey's teammate, Jeff Demps. However, Demps' speed is so legitimate he has chosen to eschew a potential NFL career (for now) in favor of training for the upcoming Summer Olympics. Rainey, possessing of the same Olympic-class sprinter speed as Demps, has chosen to stick with football.
Demps' decision is Rainey's gain. As I have watched Rainey on film, I cannot shake the temptation to stick him at slot receiver rather than continuing to try and push him as a tailback. He does not have the frame or physicality to survive as a tailback at the next level. However, what is scary about him is that as fast as he might be in a track setting, he actually possesses the quickness to match.
His quickness, speed and ability to catch the football should be put to good use at the next level, as he switches to receiver.
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