4 Keys for New York Giants Against the Jets, Plus Week 16 ATS Picks

Rex Ryan is talking the talk. Tom Coughlin would rather walk the walk.

While the bombastic coach of the New York Jets has provided enough quotes this week for a Super Bowl media day, the more mild-mannered coach of the New York Giants said simply, “Talk is cheap, play the game. That is the way I’ve always believed,” according to Yahoo! Sports.

Make no mistake, though; Saturday’s matchup between the Jets and Giants at MetLife Stadium is huge for the playoff lives of both teams. The Jets, at 8-6, hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC with Cincinnati also 8-6 and Tennessee, Oakland and San Diego lurking a game back at 7-7.

The Giants, meanwhile, are 7-7 and will win the NFC East with wins in their last two games against the Jets Saturday and at home on New Year’s Day against the Dallas Cowboys, who currently lead the NFC East at 8-6.

The Giants still control their own playoff destiny—win and they are in—but they have dropped five of their last six games and are trying to bounce back from an ugly loss to last-place Washington at home last Sunday.

Big Blue’s defense continues to be a concern. The Giants have been shredded for 432.2 yards a game in their last five contests, including an average of 293.8 through the air. On the season, the Giants are ranked 29^th in the league against the pass at 257.5 yards a game.

Ryan is still talking boldly even though the Jets were pounded at Philadelphia on Sunday, 45-19.

“I didn’t come here to be anybody’s little brother,” Ryan said earlier this week. “I came here to win, to be looked at that way and to take over not just this city, even though it’s the city to take over, but also this league.”

Jets receiver Santonio Holmes called out Giants cornerback Corey Webster, cautioning Webster to be “ready to bring his ‘A’ game” on Saturday. Holmes may be talking to move past a dreadful performance against the Eagles. His first catch ended with a fumble that Philadelphia returned for a score and a dropped pass later in the first quarter wound up as an interception that the Eagles later turned into a touchdown.

Holmes also was flagged for taunting after flapping his arms like wings after scoring a touchdown—after a score that pulled the Jets to within 18 of the Eagles.

Eli Manning is having one of his best seasons but he’s coming off a poor outing against the Redskins when he threw three picks and no touchdown passes. He has completed 61.6 percent of his throws this year for a career-best 4,362 yards but he also has logged 10 interceptions in his last seven games after tossing just five in his first seven.

Mark Sanchez, meanwhile, hasn’t thrown for more than 181 yards since Week 11.

In this infrequent series between Gotham’s two franchises, the Giants have had the better of it recently, winning four in a row since 1996. This is the latest in the season the teams have met since the Jets knocked the Giants out of playoff contention with a win in the final week of the 1988 season.

There are four keys for the Giants in this road game at home against the Jets. Those follow, along with my ATS picks for Week 16.

Burn the Blitz

The Jets will want to use a variety of pressure packages against the Giants’ inconsistent offensive line, believing they are strong enough on the corners with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to blitz seven or eight and leave their corners exposed in man coverage.

The Giants should look for quick slants and maximum protection schemes to get the ball downfield and exploit those one-on-one coverages.

Run the Rock

The Giants, averaging just 3.4 yards a carry this season, have been better on the ground the last two weeks, upping the per-carry mark to 5.2 yards against Dallas and Washington.

The Jets hold opposing runners to less than four yards a tote but have been inconsistent at times. If Big Blue can establish Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw on the ground, it will open up the play-action passing game.

Mix Up the Coverages

The Giants secondary has been exploited often this year and the Jets like to go for the long ball in their play-action game.

The G-men will rely on the front four to generate pressure on Sanchez while showing two- and three-deep zone coverages over the top.

Stop the Run First

The Jets have to be effective on the ground to win. The Giants have been vulnerable against the run this season, allowing 4.5 yards per attempt.

The Giants need to focus on stopping the Jets ground attack with some eight-man fronts and zone-blitz packages to force Sanchez to sustain drives through the air from poor down-and-distance positions.

The Picks

It was an ugly week last week as the “Any Given Sunday” theme kicked in with seven teams with losing records beating teams with winning marks. This put an end to my seven-week stretch of plus-.500 prognosticating.

As always, home teams are in CAPS.

COLTS (+7) over Texans: Reality seemed to set in for T.J. Yates last week. The Colts have lots of momentum with their one-game winning streak.

CHIEFS (-2) over Raiders: Kyle Orton seemed to stabilize Kansas City’s offense while Oakland is still dealing with their fourth-quarter collapse against the Lions.

Jaguars (+8) over TITANS: I like Tennessee to win this one, just not by more than a touchdown.

Rams (+17) over STEELERS: A rule I like to live by in games with huge spreads is this—if a team may not be capable of scoring more than the spread, take the points.

Broncos (-3) over BILLS: Denver is 5-2 on the road this year and Buffalo seems to have mailed this year in a few weeks back.

PANTHERS (-8) over Buccaneers: The pirate ship is taking on water from all directions right now.

Vikings (+7) over REDSKINS: Minnesota seems to have the close-loss thing down to a science.

Browns (+13) over RAVENS: More an indictment of Baltimore’s offense than an endorsement of Cleveland’s chances.

Dolphins (+10) over PATRIOTS: Miami has played as well as anyone in the second half of the season.

Giants (+3) over JETS: Big Blue wins the Gotham City Desperation Bowl.

Cardinals (+4) over BENGALS: Cincinnati has struggled against good teams. Don’t look now but Arizona is a good team.

Chargers (+3) over LIONS: Both teams have momentum but it’s December and it’s San Diego.

49ers (-2) over SEAHAWKS: San Francisco stays in the hunt for home-field advantage...for another day.

COWBOYS (-3) over Eagles: Dallas is essentially out of the NFC East race with a loss here. Philadelphia’s slim hopes are extinguished in Jerry Jones’ Funhouse.

Bears (+13) over PACKERS: Chicago’s defense against Green Bay’s banged-up offensive line keeps it close, particularly if Josh McCown can keep the turnovers to a minimum.

SAINTS (-7) over Falcons: New Orleans wraps up the NFC South with another solid performance at dome, sweet dome.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 122-89-11