Philadelphia 76ers: Making the Case for a Nuclear Winter

Two weeks before the end of the lockout, Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant urged the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association to meet in order to save the league from a "nuclear winter."

One of the league's franchises—the Philadelphia 76ers—may want to embrace a nuclear winter of its own.

It's a strange concept, to be sure. After all, it was easy to fall in love with the 76ers last season.

Despite a 3-13 start, head coach Doug Collins and his (mostly) young team continued to press on, displaying the kind of blue-collar grit synonymous with the city that they represent.

Philadelphia finished the regular season on a 38-28 run, and went toe-to-toe with the Miami Heat for five games in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Practically the same team returns this season—a definite advantage considering the abbreviated training camps teams will endure over the next two weeks.

Unfortunately, the 76ers are mired in the NBA's version of purgatory. They aren't good enough to compete with the best, yet not terrible enough to draft the type of player that can completely redefine a franchise.

They routinely flirt with the playoffs—often straddling the line between the eighth seed and the back end of the lottery. The one year where the ping-pong balls bounced the Sixers' way, they had the No. 2 pick in a draft with only one clear, potential superstar (John Wall).

And without that type of player, it's doubtful that there will be any ticker-tape parade celebrating the 76ers as NBA champions any time soon.

Barring any seismic shifts to the NBA landscape, there are only seven teams with a realistic shot of winning the title this season: Miami, Chicago, Boston, San Antonio, Dallas, Oklahoma City and the Los Angeles Lakers.

As ESPN's Tony Kornheiser would say: "That's it—that's the list."

All seven teams have one thing in common: each was built around a superstar who was acquired through the draft. And hate it or love it, adhering to that formula is virtually mandatory for any team that hopes to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

The NBA is a superstar-driven league. It always has been, and it will be for the foreseeable future.

Sure, there's a modicum of success to be had by shrewd teams who trade for and/or sign the right mix of players. But in order to win a title, a team basically needs to draft an elite-level talent, and then surround that player with complementary pieces acquired via trades, free agency or with other draft picks.

Numbers sometimes lie, but in this case, they tell a pretty convincing story—27 of the past 28 NBA titles were won by teams who acquired a superstar-level player via the draft.

The one exception—the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons—is what statisticians would deem an outlier. To this day, the debate rages on as to who was actually the best player on that team (Chauncey Billups? Richard Hamilton?), but there is no denying that the Pistons defied the odds when they captured the crown seven years ago.

So is it possible to win without drafting a single, transcendent superstar? Of course. But it's highly unlikely.

It's fair to question why a team has to draft a superstar as opposed to acquiring one through free agency. After all, since there is no true financial parity in the NBA, it only makes sense that the more well-heeled teams would be able to corner the market on talent.

That's what Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert believes. In his screed against the now-infamous Chris Paul non-trade, Gilbert (who didn't resort to Comic Sans font this time) expressed his thoughts on how low-revenue clubs were expected to compete with teams in larger markets.

"When will we just change the name of 25 of the 30 teams to the Washington Generals?" Gilbert wrote.

Gilbert's ire was misguided, however. Clearly, the Lakers and the New York Knicks and other large-market teams will always be able to outspend the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Charlotte Bobcats.

But having deep pockets doesn't necessarily equate to having success on the court. If it did, then the Knicks would have a couple of extra banners hanging in the rafters of Madison Square Garden.

The true competitive balance comes from the draft. Those who draft extraordinarily well, win. It's that simple.

For what it's worth, the 76ers have done relatively well in the draft in recent years. 21-year-old point guard Jrue Holiday is a potential All-Star, and Evan Turner appears to have the physical and mental makeup needed to become a solid NBA player.

But even at this stage in their careers, it doesn't appear likely that either will emerge as a top-10 talent in the NBA. So unless the 76ers are truly convinced that they have something special in Holiday and/or Turner, then some drastic measures are in order.

The blueprint is pretty straightforward. What the 76ers should do is immediately amnesty Elton Brand and trade Andre Iguodala in exchange for expiring contracts.

To call those two moves "bold" would be an understatement. On the surface, it doesn't seem logical for a team to willingly rid itself of its two best players.

But doing so will not only allow the 76ers' young core (Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young) the chance to develop some much-needed chemistry, but it will also free up an exorbitant amount of cap space over the next few seasons.

More importantly, shedding Brand and Iguodala will likely put the 76ers in a better position to draft that franchise player that they desperately need. Because if there was ever a year where a team shouldn't be disconsolate about finishing in the lottery, this is that year.

In the most heralded draft class since 2003, there are several prospects that are likely to have an immediate impact in the NBA. While it's too early to tell if there are any franchise-level talents in this year's crop, Philadelphia has a far better chance of drafting one this summer than signing one a few seasons from now.

All things considered, the Sixers should think long and hard before maintaining the status quo this season. However, what the 76ers should do is a far cry from what they will actually do.

It appears that Philadelphia's long-term plan is to roll with its current roster (more or less) until Elton Brand's contract expires two years from now. By that time, their young talent may have matured to the point where—at the very least—some of them could be No. 2 or No. 3 options on a championship-caliber team.

Brand's expected departure—coupled with an expiring Iguodala deal—will give the team the salary cap flexibility they'll need in order to acquire players who will complement their core.

The strategy is completely reasonable: After purchasing the team earlier this year, the 76ers' new ownership group isn't in a position to make wholesale changes.

One of the team's primary goals this season is to fill the Wells Fargo Center, and it would be difficult to do so without two players who accounted for nearly 30 percent of the team's scoring output last year.

In addition, from a business standpoint, it isn't fiscally responsible to give someone (Brand) $35 million and receive nothing of value in return, especially since the 76ers are a far cry from luxury tax territory.

The endgame of the new ownership group (aside from a championship) is to make the franchise more attractive to free agents. They've already taken the first step towards that goal by upgrading the team's practice facility. But while providing valet parking and adding a few couches are nice touches, that's not what will ultimately tip the scales in the 76ers' favor.

In professional sports, there are two things that will entice virtually any free agent to join a new team. One, of course, is money. The second? The chance to play with other established superstars.

But when it comes to those two things, the Philadelphia 76ers don't have either. A year from now—with the right moves—they could very well have both.

The money/cap space is only necessary to complete the supporting cast required for a championship run. The real value is in the potential lottery pick that could one day blossom into a star.

In order to get to that point, however, the 76ers will have to endure the cold of a nuclear winter. Otherwise, they'll be stuck in basketball purgatory for several years to come.