New York Giants: 4 Keys to a Week 14 Win at Dallas Cowboys, Plus the ATS Picks

Everyone knows what’s at stake.

The New York Giants head to Jerry Jones’ personal Taj Mahal in Arlington Sunday night to battle the Dallas Cowboys with first place in the NFC East on the line.

There are two teams with a chance to win the division, and they play each other twice in the season’s final four weeks. The schedule-makers will pat themselves on the back over that one.

Big Blue trails the all-time series in Dallas 18-31-1, but the Giants are unbeaten at Cowboys Stadium—a 33-31 win in Week 2 in 2009 and a 41-35 victory in Week 7 of last season. Both of those games were played under the glare of the prime-time lights, as will this week’s pivotal matchup.

The Giants are still very banged up, although there have been positive signs coming out of practice this week, with linebacker Michael Boley getting more work. Mario Manningham’s status is still up in the air and Prince Amukamara is battling a balky back.

As for momentum, it’s six-to-five and pick ‘em. The Giants have lost four straight but went toe-to-toe with the unbeaten Green Bay Packers last Sunday before losing on a field goal at the final gun, 38-35.

The Cowboys took one on the chin in Arizona, losing to the Cardinals after a timeout wiped out what would have been a game-winning field goal.

Dallas then surrendered the game-winning touchdown on the first possession of overtime when about nine different Cowboys defenders couldn’t bring down LaRod Stephens-Howling on a 52-yard scoring pass that was in the air for about eight feet.

I see four things the Giants must do if they are to run their winning streak in Dallas to three games and—oh, by the way—get a leg up in the race for the division title.

My Week 14 picks against the spread will follow at the end of the slideshow.

Keep Working the Ground Game

After the running game struggled through much of the season’s first 11 games, the Giants broke out of their funk against the Packers.

New York averaged five yards a carry against Green Bay, and Dallas’ run defense has been solid at times, not so much at others.

The Cowboys give up an average of 4.2 yards an attempt.

If the Giants want to keep their vulnerable linebacking corps off the field, the best way to do it will be with heavy doses of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw between the tackles.

Keep Eli Upright

Dallas’ pass-rush is led by DeMarcus Ware, who has 15 of the Cowboys’ 35 sacks this season and has been engaged in a bit of a war of words with Giants defensive lineman Justin Tuck this week.

Dallas got to Kevin Kolb five times in the loss at Arizona.

Eli Manning has only been sacked 21 times this season, but New York has been vulnerable to speed rushers off the edge, such as when they surrendered three sacks to the Philadelphia Eagles in a Week 11 loss.

The Giants will likely try to slide protection toward Ware’s side and speed up the passing game with shorter drops and quicker routes.

Make Romo Work to Move the Chains

DeMarco Murray has brought a new element to the Dallas offense as he has emerged as the Cowboys’ primary running back as a rookie.

But as the Cardinals slowed Murray down (he had just 38 yards in the loss last week), the Cowboys offense struggled to sustain drives because they were on the wrong side of down-and-distance situations.

If the Giants can keep Murray bottled up, it will free up the pass-rush for some opportunities to tee off on quarterback Tony Romo in obvious passing situations.

Pressure Romo, but Be Smart

Much like Aaron Rodgers of the Packers last week, Romo is another quarterback who does a good job of using his feet to keep plays alive.

He is elusive in the pocket and is willing to leave it and make plays off scrambles.

For all of the continued “is Romo a great quarterback” talk that seems to permeate every season, he’s been Dallas’ No. 1 guy, and his numbers look good this season—22 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.

The same admonition I gave the Giants defense about Rodgers applies again this week with Romo—pressure Romo in the pocket, but keep him there so he can’t make big plays outside of it.

The Picks

(Home teams in CAPS)

COWBOYS (-3) over Giants: His interception aside, Chase Blackburn being back with the Giants two years after being deemed too slow to be an effective linebacker says everything that needs to be said about Big Blue’s defense, and ultimately the gaping holes at the position will be the difference.

Browns (+15) over STEELERS (Thursday night): Pittsburgh played practically perfectly in pummeling the Bengals. I like the Steelers in this one, just not 15 points worth of like.

Saints (-4) over TITANS: New Orleans is more jugger-not than juggernaut when out from under the friendly roof of the Superdome, but if this turns into a typical Saints shootout, I like Drew Brees’ chances.

RAVENS (-17) over Colts: Dan Orlovsky will not lead Indianapolis to three fourth-quarter touchdowns this week.

JETS (-10) over Chiefs: I generally shy away from spreads of more than about three on the Jets because I’ve seen their offense play. But then I remembered that Kansas City’s only offensive touchdown in three weeks came on a twice-tipped Hail Mary at the end of a half.

LIONS (-7) over Vikings: Christian Ponder has looked really good at times. Then he does things like throw easy interceptions in tie games with less than two minutes to go.

Texans (+3) over BENGALS: The fact that I’m taking a third-string quarterback on the road against a playoff contender speaks much more to my confidence in Houston’s defense than it is an endorsement of T.J. Yates.

JAGUARS (+1) over Buccaneers: I believe that Jacksonville has given up on its season slightly less than Tampa Bay has.

Falcons (-3) over PANTHERS: Atlanta laid a giant egg in Houston last week. If the Falcons want to stay in the playoff hunt, they can’t do it again.

DOLPHINS (-3) over Eagles: Michael Vick, Vince Young, Ron Jaworski, Norm Snead—it doesn’t matter who plays quarterback for Philadelphia. Miami is one of the hottest teams in the league right now.

REDSKINS (+9) over Patriots: I smell another backdoor cover against New England’s bend-until-it-shatters defense.

CARDINALS (+4) over 49ers: A young team that just won something for the first time in forever and they’re not going to have a letdown? OK, sure.

BRONCOS (-4) over Bears: Hey, I’m not one to risk the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. Plus, I mean, it’s Caleb Hanie, for crying out loud.

Bills (+7) over CHARGERS: Forgive me for not looking for a seat on the San Diego bandwagon after one win against a team with a brand-new interim coach.

PACKERS (-12) over Raiders: You cannot get blown out in Miami and be taken seriously when going to Lambeau Field in December the following week. You just can’t.

SEAHAWKS (no line) over Rams: Sam Bradford’s got an ankle. A.J. Feeley’s got a thumb. Tom Brandstater needs a discount double-check, and fast.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 105-76-10