NFL Picks Week 5: Gut-Check Time for the Philadelphia Eagles

If there is one thing we have learned about the NFL over the years, it's that you should always expect the unexpected. No matter what year, there will always be a team that shocks people and a team that disappoints.

This year has been no different.

Heading into Week 5, who had the Lions 4-0 and the Eagles 1-3?

Not me, that's for sure.

That's exactly where we are though, and it's what makes the NFL so exciting. Come on, don't tell me you weren't thrilled seeing the Lions come back from 27-3 last week in Dallas. This city deserves it.

Week 4 Rankings

Top QB: Aaron Rodgers (30-of-38, 387 yards, 4 TDs)

Top RB: Fred Jackson (23 carries, 172 yards, 2 TDs)

Top WR: Steve Smith (10 catches, 182 yards, TD)

Top Kicker: Lawrence Tynes

Top Defense: New York Giants

The New Orleans Saints at the Carolina Panthers

Thus far in his rookie season, first pick Cam Newton has already faced Aaron Rodgers (and nearly out-dueled him) and almost won in Soldier Field a week ago, among other things.

Now, in Week 5, Newton's got another big test, and that is to beat the 2009 Super Bowl champs.

This year the Saints smell blood, and they are not a team to be messed with. 

Last week in Chicago Newton shined again, throwing for 374 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for two of his own.

Once again though, it resulted in another loss for the 1-3 Panthers.

And once again, Newton is getting no help from that defense, as they gave up 34 points in a loss.

If you ask Newton, it's not the defense's fault—it's his, as he had a chance to win the game, but couldn't deliver. As the season goes along, you can assure yourself that Newton will get more and more confident in late-game situations.

One guy who knows how to deliver with the game on the line is Drew Brees. After a Super Bowl in 2009, Brees wants more, and the Saints have all the pieces to do it again this year. They've won three straight after dropping the opener in Green Bay, and got Marques Colston back last week.

This game in Carolina won't be easy, and the defense will need to come to play. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a shootout here, but I expect the Saints to win it. The Panthers keep it close once again, but can't pull it out.

Fearless Forecast: Saints 30, Panthers 26

The Oakland Raiders at the Houston Texans

That Arian Foster hamstring injury?

Yeah, I'd say it's healed now.

In his first full game back, Foster exploded, rushing 30 times for 155 yards. Fantasy owners of Foster rejoiced on Sunday, as he shredded the Steelers' defense. The Texans won it 17-10, and their improved defense continues to be the story of their season.

In the win though, the Texans lost Andre Johnson to a hamstring injury, and he could be out three weeks.That means guys like Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter need to step up to give Matt Schaub some more weapons on offense. With Johnson out though, the Texans will be pounding the ball to Foster, and after last week it looks like he's more than ready for a full workload.

After beating the Jets 34-24, the Raiders were looking to upset another AFC East opponent with the Patriots coming to town. That didn't work out though, as the Patriots took care of business in Oakland, winning 31-19.

This week, a confident Hue Jackson said the Raiders are going to win the AFC West.

They could start with a win here in Houston.

With a revamped defense and Arian Foster healthy, this is going to be the year the Texans finally break through. This isn't just the same old Texans; this team is different. That's why they are going to win this game.

This year, the Texans win games in which they should.

Fearless Forecast: Texans 24, Raiders 17

The Kansas City Chiefs at the Indianapolis Colts

This week, the Colts will win their first game during life without Peyton Manning.

It's now or never, really.

In his first career start last week, Curtis Painter had some bright spots in Tampa Bay, throwing two touchdowns in a 24-17 loss. It's not easy to have your first career start under the bright lights on Monday Night Football, but Painter fared well.

With Kerry Collins still out with a concussion, Painter gets another shot, this time against the Chiefs—who are coming off their first win of the season.

After getting outscored 109-27 in their first three games of the season, the Chiefs won 22-17 over the Vikings.

It wasn't pretty, as Matt Cassel and Todd Haley got into a heated exchange on the sidelines; I don't see how Haley makes it through the entire season if things continue to go this way.

On Sunday, expect an ugly, low-scoring game between two struggling offenses. The Colts will win it as Painter gets the first win of his career. This game's not going to be pretty, though.

Fearless Forecast: Colts 14, Chiefs 12

The Cincinnati Bengals at the Jacksonville Jaguars

We have a matchup between two rookie quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and Blaine Gabbert, in Jacksonville this week.

This game could be ugly, folks.

Hosting the Bills last week, the Bengals overcame a 17-6 deficit to take it 20-17 on a Mike Nugent field goal. What impressed me about that game was how Dalton had such a short-term memory, and put his mistakes in the past. The Bengals have been somewhat a surprise this season, led by their defense, which is currently giving up the fewest yards in the NFL. 

As for the Jaguars, after cutting David Garrard before the season started, then benching Josh McCown just two weeks in, the Blaine Gabbert experiment began early.

So far, he's 0-2 with losses to the Panthers and Saints. Could his first win be on the radar this week when they host Cincinnati? 

I like the Jaguars to win this one. Gabbert looked better last week, and he will only get more comfortable as the weeks go on. 

Fearless Forecast: Jaguars 16, Bengals 14

The Arizona Cardinals at the Minnesota Vikings

In Minnesota this week, a matchup of two familiar quarterbacks meet up when Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb go head-to-head.

You know the story of their history, right?

After drafted by the Eagles in 2007, Kolb sat behind McNabb for two years and was named the starter in 2010 when McNabb got traded.

Unfortunately for Kolb, one concussion later, Michael Vick came in and changed the fortunes of both the Eagles and Kolb's career in Philly.

As for McNabb, he got shipped to Washington, which was a failed experiment, and now at 0-4, his Vikings era is off to a rocky start.

It sure doesn't look like McNabb has anything left in the tank, but he wants this game. McNabb wants to beat the guy who ran him out of Philly. 

In all four of their games this season, the Vikings have led—and by double-digits—their first three games at halftime. The offense has looked stagnant, and you have to feel for Adrian Peterson. At 0-4, and in a division that includes the Packers, Lions and Bears, the season is already nearly lost.

I love McNabb, but at this point, where are the Vikings going with him? It might just be time to get on with Christian Ponder.

For the Cardinals, by all means, they could be 4-0 right now. They've lost three straight after beating the Panthers in Week 1, and in each game Kolb has had a chance to win it, but has failed to deliver.

Kolb has looked good at times, and bad at others. So far, it looks like that $63.5 million contract may have been a risky move.

Kolb is unproven, and got so much hype sitting behind McNabb and Vick. Now he finally has his chance and in a bad NFC West; if Kolb really is that good, the Cardinals should win the division.

On Sunday, I fully expect the Vikings to finally put it all together and win a game. The Cardinals have a bad secondary, and McNabb will play well.

Please, Donovan, don't make me look bad again.

Fearless Forecast: Vikings 23, Cardinals 17

The Seattle Seahawks at the New York Giants

Are the Giants the best team in the NFC East?

After dropping their opener in Washington 28-14, the Giants have come out strong and won their last three games. They are rallying around all of their injuries, and players continue to step up.

But wait, haven't we seen this before from the Giants?

In 2009, New York started out the season with a bang and were 5-0, only to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Last year was a similar result, as the Giants were 6-2 before collapsing late in the year to miss the playoffs yet again.

Is this Giants team different?

Meanwhile, trailing 27-7 against the Falcons last week, Tarvaris Jackson nearly staged a second-half comeback, but the Seahawks fell just short, 30-28.

Now here we are a week later, and the Seahawks are on the road, in New York.

Gulp.

If you know the Seahawks' history in the past, then you know that this team is just plain bad on the road. There's no way around it. This game in the Big Apple will not be pretty.

The Giants win this one easily.

Fearless Forecast: Giants 34, Seahawks 7

The Tennessee Titans at the Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the most interesting games of the week is between the resurgent Titans and the Steelers.

Perhaps the most underrated pick up of the offseason thus far has been the signing of Matt Hasselbeck to the Titans. After a rough start in Week 1, Tennessee has rebounded beautifully, and Hasselbeck has put them right in the mix for the AFC South.

How's it feel letting him go, Seattle?

This week will be a big test for the Titans.

The Steelers come into this game at 2-2 and have not looked like the Steelers of last year in any way.

Their offense has struggled to move the ball, and both Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall are banged up.

All signs are pointing to Roethlisberger playing, but how effective will he be? This year it hasn't been pretty for the two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback, as he has just five touchdowns and three interceptions.

Mike Tomlin can't be pleased with how his team has performed thus far this season. You have to assume though that as the season goes along, the Steelers will get to where they want to be, and would you want to play them in the playoffs? Big Ben is a straight-up winner.

But for right now, things are looking a little cloudy in Pittsburgh, which is why I'm taking the Titans. They are playing better football right now and will win it at Heinz Field.

Fearless Forecast: Titans 20, Steelers 16 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the San Francisco 49ers

Is there any doubt of the great job Jim Harbaugh has done in San Francisco thus far?

Five weeks into the season, his Niners are 3-1 and fresh off of a 23-3 comeback win in Philadelphia. He has brought some discipline to this organization and has his team believing they can win every game.

This week, they get another test when the 3-1 Buccaneers come to town. 

In the Bucs' three wins this season, none of them have been pretty for the NFL's youngest team.

Last week against the Colts, it took them a late LeGarrette Blount touchdown to lift them, resulting in a 24-17 win.

Do you think the Bucs care at all if these are ugly? No, not at all. A win is a win, and this team is just growing. Raheem Morris has done an amazing job with them, and they are just getting started. 

On Sunday, don't expect to see an offensive outburst because that is not what you are going to see by any means. Points have not come at a premium for both of these teams this season, and there won't be any difference on Sunday.

With a win here, the Niners can really gain some more ground in a bad NFC West. All you need in that division to win is to be 8-8. It's sad, but it's true at the same time.

I like the 49ers in an ugly one on Sunday. 

Fearless Forecast: 49ers 17, Buccaneers 14

The San Diego Chargers at the Denver Broncos

As every week goes by, it's becoming more and more clear that the Broncos have no plans to use Tim Tebow.

I mean, none.

Last week, while getting blown out 49-23 at Lambeau Field, they refused to give Tebow a shot, leaving Orton in the game.

You took a first-round pick on this guy, why not see what he's got? I'm simply baffled at this point. 

This week, the Broncos open up their division play against a 3-1 Chargers team. I wouldn't be surprised if this game was close, because the Chargers love to play close games.

No, scratch that—I expect this game to be close.

The Chargers absolutely love to make games interesting. After missing the playoffs last year, this is Norv Turner's final shot to make a run. This team is too talented to have a let-down every single year. 

On Sunday, the Chargers will likely be without Antonio Gates again, but I don't think it will matter. Rivers will have no trouble against the Bronco secondary.

Go Chargers, go.

Fearless Forecast: Chargers 34, Broncos 26

The New York Jets at the New England Patriots

Ever since Rex Ryan took over as the Jets' head coach in 2009, an old rivalry has been renewed with the Jets and Patriots. The drama was higher than ever last season, and now it's time for a new chapter in the rivalry.

In case you forgot about last year, let me just refresh your memory.

After the Jets beat the Patriots in Week 2 a season ago, the Patriots would go on to lose just one more game the rest of the regular season. That record includes a 45-3 massacre over the Jets in Week 13 on Monday Night Football.

The next time they met though, things were different. After a first-round bye in the playoffs, the Patriots were shocked by the Jets in the playoffs, losing 28-21.

Following the win, the Jets went on to parade around the field like they just won the Super Bowl, and then of course there was Bart Scott's famous, "Can't Wait" interview.

I already couldn't stand the Jets, and that game just added to it.

Now it's a fresh season, but the rivalry is the same.

And you can assure yourself that Tom Brady wants revenge on these Jets.

At 3-1, the Patriots' offense hasn't missed a beat this year.

Their defense though? Yeah, it needs some work, as they currently rank 32nd in the NFL, giving up 477.5 yards per game.

Can Mark Sanchez break out of his slump against this Patriots secondary? Last week in Baltimore, it was ugly for Sanchez, as he finished 11-of-34 for 119 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. This needs to be the year Sanchez takes that leap forward and be the quarterback who can take the Jets to the Super Bowl.

I can assure you that will not happen if this keeps up. 

I'm riding with the Patriots in this game and for Brady to get some revenge from the playoffs last year. He does not forget how the Jets acted after they won that game.

Fearless Forecast: Patriots 31, Jets 21 

The Green Bay Packers at the Atlanta Falcons

Next, we have another playoff rematch from last year, this time between the Packers and Falcons.

Do you need your memory refreshed from the last time they met?

Well, since you asked, here you go. 

Last year, in the divisional playoff round, it was all Packers—and I mean all Packers.

Aaron Rodgers shredded the Falcons' defense for 366 yards and three touchdowns.

Did I mention he also went 31-of-36? That resulted in a 48-21 rout for the Packers, and they never looked back on their way to the Super Bowl.

Now, a season later, they have not missed a beat and look even better than last year—that's scary.

The Falcons, on the other hand, don't look like the same team; something isn't right with them.

At 2-2, they were lucky to escape with a win last week in Seattle after blowing a 27-7 lead to win 30-28. Their defense has some problems, and they better try fix it when Aaron Rodgers and company come to town, or things could get ugly again.

On Sunday night, expect a shootout. I just don't see the Falcons winning it though. The Packers look like they are head and shoulders above every team in the league and will prove it here in a win.

Fearless Forecast: Packers 34, Falcons 27

The Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions

Where do I even begin to talk about this Lions team?

At 4-0, they are fresh off back-to-back 20-point comebacks, and everybody is jumping on this bandwagon.

It's a good bandwagon to be on, if you ask me. Matthew Stafford has finally been able to stay healthy, and the No. 1 pick is showing why the Lions took him there.

It also doesn't hurt when you have Calvin Johnson. Through four weeks, Johnson has become the first player in NFL history to catch two touchdowns in each game.

Yeah, that guy is pretty good.

It's going to be a madhouse in Detroit on Monday night. 

Are the Bears ready for it? That offense is going to have to come to play on Monday night or things could get ugly fast.

Other than Matt Forte, no player on this Bears offense has been able to step up much this season. Jay Cutler needs some help, and the Lions are the hottest team in football. Good luck. 

In this game, I would be shocked if the Bears win it. It's going to be a rowdy crowd in Detroit, to say the least. I wouldn't be surprised if this one turned into a blowout. 

The Lions improve to 5-0 here. Yep, the Detroit Lions.

Fearless Forecast: Lions 31, Bears 17

The Philadelphia Eagles at the Buffalo Bills

Before the 2011 NFL season started, no team had a bigger target on their back than the Philadelphia Eagles.

After revamping their roster to bring in guys like Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Jason Babin and Vince Young, just to name a few, it was Super Bowl or bust in Philadelphia. I mention Young because he proclaimed the Eagles to be a "Dream Team," even before the season started. This is coming from a backup quarterback as well.

Using this Miami Heat analogy that everyone has stupidly compared the Eagles to, that would be like Eddie House saying the Heat were a "Dream Team."

Like they say on Monday Night Countown, "C'mon man!"

After winning their opener in St. Louis against the win-less Rams, the Eagles have dropped their last three games, and the pressure is on Andy Reid.

You won't find an Eagles fan in Philadelphia who isn't praying for the firing of Reid. Everything that could have gone wrong for the Eagles thus far this season has.

That defense that was supposed to be shut-down? Yeah, not so much. Through four games, the Eagles have been exposed, and they rank 30th in the NFL in stopping the run, giving up 139.5 yards per game.

Bad news for the Eagles in Buffalo: They get a Bills team that loves to run the football, averaging 137 yards per game.

So do you know what the Bills are going to on Sunday?

You guessed it. Run, run, run. 

Following the Bills 34-31 win over the Patriots in which they snapped a 15-snap skid over them, the Bills lost in Cincinnati, 20-17 (a game they should have won, as they led 17-6).

A game like that has many fans thinking if that Bills team we saw against the Patriots was a fluke.

I've got news for you: The Bills will be around all season long. With a strong running game and a fearless quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills will win games. They are thinking one thing this season, and it's playoffs.

In this game, the Eagles are desperate. Fans in Philadelphia will lose it if they lose this one. This team has too much talent to be playing such undisciplined football.

On the other side of the field, the Bills have a little something to prove as well. They don't want that 3-0 start to go to waste. 

I'm torn as to who to pick in this game. The Eagles fan in me is telling me that they are going to rally through and win this game, but the football fan in me is telling me that the Bills will expose the Eagles' weakness and pound the run with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.

Ah, forget it, my Eagles side gave in.

Eagles win it.

Fearless Forecast: Eagles 27, Bills 23