NBA Playoffs 2011: Eastern Finals to Feature Bulls, Celtics or Miami?
At this time, I will be looking at just the Eastern Conference playoffs. I will admit that I am a New York Knicks fan from Indiana, which in the past would have been like admitting you’re a Duke fan on the UNC campus.
To preface this list of my predictions, I will not be picking the Knicks to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. That being said, here we go.
The first-round matchup I will discuss first is the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers. I have three very close friends who are diehard Pacers fans. We have all attended games together including a season finale between the Knicks and Pacers a few seasons ago. So I hear and read a lot about the Pacers, as a result.
The Pacers have Danny Granger, who I am on record as saying was a dumb draft choice. I was completely wrong about that, and Indiana fans would have slaughtered me if I had been the GM. (I would have picked Gerald Green at the time. Where is he now?)
After that, there’s not a whole lot to be had. Darren Collison is a good young guard and Roy Hibbert is a good young center. Rookie Paul George has been starting recently and playing reasonably well at times.
They also have the vastly improved Tyler Hansbrough, who I have already picked as the most improved player next year. Maybe this is bias, as he drove the Knicks crazy in the home-and-home series earlier this year, scoring 29 and then 30 in the two games.
What I’m trying to say here, is that Indiana does not have that second consistent scorer. It should be Hibbert, with his height and improved post game, but he has been inconsistent. Indiana does have good bench play at times with Dahntay Jones, Mike Dunleavy and Brandon Rush, as well as longest-tenured Pacer Jeff Foster, who brings hustle and rebounding. Josh McRoberts was starting earlier in the year, but (thankfully for Indiana fans) has been replaced by Hansbrough.
I assumed Chicago would win their division, but didn't think they would obtain the top seed in the East. I did not think the roster could do it. I overlooked some players, though. I’m not sure why, but I always forget about Luol Deng. It was another solid season from Deng this year, as he’s only missed one game and is averaging almost 18 points per contest.
Carlos Boozer was their big catch during free agency. He was injured at the start of the season, but recovered to average nearly 18 points and 10 rebounds a game. Combine these two with Derrick Rose at 25 per game, and you have three primary scorers capable of going for well over 60 points.
Throw in hustler Joakim Noah’s improvement and you have a strong frontcourt of Noah, Boozer and Deng that should have a slight edge over Granger, Hansbrough and Hibbert.
But the backcourt is where Chicago will win the series. Derrick Rose will probably win the MVP and I would not have a problem with that. He is a dominant player and there’s no one on Indiana’s roster that can stop him from penetrating and scoring or setting up Boozer and Noah for easy scores.
The bench is full of veteran players. Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, CJ Watson and Kyle Korver provide fantastic depth at guard and forward, with Taj Gibson and Kurt Thomas backing up the big men.
I think Indiana could be poised for better lands in the future with the development of Hansbrough and George. They currently lack that secondary scorer and need another veteran in the starting lineup. They may win two games, but Chicago is just too good and too deep. It helps having the soon-to-be MVP on your team, too.
Prediction: Chicago in five
Next is Orlando and Atlanta. I like Orlando’s team and their depth in the backcourt. Jameer Nelson has proven he can play at an All-Star level and this team has proved they can play without Dwight Howard, too. They nearly won a game against Rose and the Bulls without Howard.
In my mind, Howard is the league’s MVP. But all those new players that came in are not playing to their level they should. Howard has carried this team, averaging 23 points and 14 rebounds. However, I question if Howard can play in the playoffs without drawing an excessive amount of technical fouls. He MUST stay in the game. There is no one to back him and Brandon Bass up after Ryan Anderson.
I realize the Turkoglu can play four positions, but he is not the same since landing that huge contract.
The Magic have a lot of talent. Nelson, Jason Richardson, Quentin Richardson, J.J. Redick (I hear he’s almost over his injury) and Chris Duhon are an excellent group to have rotating in the backcourt.
Notice how Gilbert Arenas was not listed there.
I feel Arenas could be the key to this series if he can play. He’s dealing with injury right now, but if he were to play similarly to how he played a week ago against Charlotte, the series belongs definitively to the Magic.
On the other hand, Atlanta has very interesting pieces. They have two All-Stars in Joe Johnson and Al Horford, but Johnson’s production dropped after that lucrative deal he signed. Horford averages nearly a double-double even with his relative height disadvantage.
Josh Smith is an incredible athlete and a really good shot blocker. However, every time I think of him, the word “moron” comes to mind. I recall that All-Star weekend when he entered the dunk contest and put a piece of tape down on the floor, just inside the three-point line. And he then proceeded to dunk from a much closer spot.
Still, this is a very talented threesome that has played together a few years now.
Jamal Crawford is a super sub and super shooter, although I feel many of his shots are very questionable. However, he has won games for them and leads the league in four-point plays, interestingly enough.
I would have imagined Marvin Williams would have progressed more by now, but he is still an effective player.
The trade for Kirk Hinrich was a good move. He has playoff experience and is a good shooter from outside. What I see as problematic for the Hawks is a thin bench after Crawford, Maurice Evans and Zaza Pachulia, who can play very well when given minutes.
Atlanta has a better lineup to start the game, but has a very weak bench when compared to Orlando’s outstanding rotation. I see them being at a disadvantage trying to guard Howard. If they’re going to win, they need to get Howard in foul trouble.
This Orlando team and Atlanta team have seemingly stepped down from where they were last year. Both have several talented players, but something is still not right.
I look for Howard to dominate inside with no one really capable of guarding him. If they double-team him, Turkoglu, Nelson, both Richardsons, Redick and Arenas (if healthy, those last two) are all very capable.
Joe Johnson needs to show why he has the massive contract by upping his scoring to 25 per game. Look for Crawford to win AND lose one game for the Hawks. I don’t see Atlanta having quite enough firepower to win, but the teams are evenly matched…almost.
Prediction: Orlando in seven
"The Knicks are back."
Amar’e Stoudemire has been saying that all year. And it's true.
Back in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, the Knicks managed to get the sixth seed, assuring them of a matchup with the Celtics for the 13th time. This is the second most-played series between two NBA teams.
The Knicks were tied with the Timberwolves for the longest current playoff drought. They have proven they can hang with the tough teams and lose to teams below them, losing most notably to Cleveland three times this season. They have managed to build a nucleus of Amar’e, Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. All have notable playoff experience, with Anthony having never missed the playoffs in his career.
Rony Turiaf is not the ideal starter at center, but he blocks shots now and then. They have a weaker bench after trading away many players for Anthony and Billups, but have capable players in Toney Douglas, Roger Mason, Shawne Williams and Jared Jeffries. Not a great bench squad, but they can pack scoring punch, especially when it comes to three-point shooting.
I feel the key to this series is actually going to be Landry Fields. He’ll probably be guarding Ray Allen frequently and cannot allow Allen to hit five three-point shots per game. Fields has been a steal of a draft pick this year and is the one player New York refused to part with in their big trade. His scoring dropped after the trade, but he shot 50 percent this year and is going to get open looks that he will need to hit.
Stoudemire should be able to dominate the Celtics without Kendrick Perkins, and especially if Shaquille O’Neal is not playing. Stoudemire must have a great series if New York hopes to win. If New York’s slightly improved defense can step up another notch, this series could be VERY interesting.
I picked Boston at the beginning of the year to go to the NBA Finals, but I’m just not sure now after the Perkins trade. I don’t feel Boston’s age is affecting them as much as the trade itself has. Granted, who knows what to expect from the O’Neals, but if both are healthy and Glen Davis and Nenad Krstic are as well, the Celtics will dominate inside when combined with Garnett’s play. If necessary, Troy Murphy has also returned from injury.
We all know what to expect from Allen and Paul Pierce. Nothing needs to be said there.
Rajon Rondo has been an All-Star twice now and loves playing in the playoffs apparently, being only two years removed from averaging a triple-double there.
The Celtics have the deeper bench and frontcourt, when healthy. They also have Delonte West and Jeff Green, who can both step in and score.
The team is very experienced, but the only place it shows is with the O’Neals and both are supposed to be healthy in time for the playoffs. How well the series goes for Boston depends on the frontcourt and how many of them play effectively. Also, Garnett is going to have his hands full guarding Stoudemire. He’ll need to limit him to jump shots and keep him off the free-throw line.
It will be an interesting series, and could go either way. I do not think the Knicks can hold up in a seven-game series with a team like Boston. While I want New York to win, they do not have a deep enough team to contend with a healthy Boston.
Prediction: Boston in seven
The last series pits the King and Flash against an improved Sixers team.
Philadelphia is full of players many people haven’t heard of before. There are eight players averaging seven points or more, led by a healthy Elton Brand with 15 points and eight rebounds per game. Andre Iguodala’s production is down, but he still averages about six rebounds and six assists.
It seems that Doug Collins already has this team playing together and accomplishing the same objectives. They’re not going to win the series, but I would not have thought they would make the playoffs either.
They have a very young backcourt with Jrue Holiday already starting and the second overall draft selection in 2010 in Evan Turner. The team is looking up and may win one game, but they’re not going to “shock the world” and have a VCU-like run in the playoffs.
The Heat were supposed to win 70 games and have a cakewalk to the finals. I said that, and was completely wrong from the very beginning.
The year started off slow with Wade injured and the team taking time to gel. At one point, Chris Bosh was whining about how he could not score if he did not get the ball in the post. But here it is, playoff time, and the Heat are the second seed.
However, should they win the first-round matchup, they’re staring at the Celtics, who took three games from the Heat this year. It would be a great matchup. However, first they must handle the 76ers.
I expect the Heat to sweep this series, since James and Wade play outstanding basketball in the playoffs, except for when James quit on his team last year. Wade, James and Bosh should score 70 per game in addition to Mike Bibby and Mike Miller’s scoring output.
Eddie House and Mario Chalmers also fill in at guard with House being a streaky scorer. Zydrunas Ilgauskas also a capable scorer who is lethal if given an open shot.
Also filling the frontcourt bench are Juwan Howard and Erick Dampier. The Heat are so deep that former All-Star Jamaal Magloire never leaves the bench. The Heat should roll right through the series with very little trouble.
The 76ers are young and have a few nice pieces, but too many role players. They need a special player and don’t have that yet. They will get better under Doug Collins’ tutelage, but are not ready to play the Heat in this series.
Prediction: Heat in four
This would set up series of Chicago and Orlando in the top and Boston and Miami in the bottom.
Two teams at the top with one superstar and surrounding pieces and two teams with a "Big Three" and deep frontcourts. I think the East has almost caught up with the West. There used to be such a disparity between the two, and while I still think the West is stronger, Eastern conference teams are getting there. Anyway, thanks for reading.
