Philadelphia 76ers Have All the Pieces, but Who Can Be Their Closer?
Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown phrased it best when he said Jimmy Butler was the "adult in the room" after a Game 1 first-round loss to the Brooklyn Nets last season.
From the moment Butler was acquired from the Minnesota Timberwolves last season, he was the Sixers' closer. In his early days in November, he hit a step-back, game-winning three in overtime against the Charlotte Hornets to prove it.
A lot has changed, though. Butler and JJ Redick are gone, Al Horford has come over from the Boston Celtics, and expectations are sky-high. FiveThirtyEight projected the 76ers to be the top team in the NBA with 58 wins and gave them a 54 percent chance to make the Finals, with a 25 percent chance of winning the whole thing.
But they have one big question: Who is going to close games?
Husband and wife NBA referees, Jonathan Sterling and Lauren Holtkamp, join The Full 48 with Howard Beck to discuss their new baby daughter and how they plan to navigate parenthood during the coming season, Lauren’s ACL injury rehab, their respective rookie years in the league, and the changing landscape of females in the NBA.
Could It Be Embiid? Eh...
Running an end-of-game play for a post player is difficult. It gets even tougher if there are only four or five seconds and it's easier to double the post. Not many big men have been their team's go-to guy.
Few big men have been nearly as dominant as Shaquille O'Neal, but at the end of games, because of his free-throw problems and how long it takes to set up a post play, he only had nine of these shots after 2000. Kobe Bryant was responsible for most of them during Shaq's Los Angeles Lakers days. Bryant took 64 from 2000 to 2004, while O'Neal only took six.
There is no question Joel Embiid is the Sixers' best player and their first option on offense. But with the majority of his points coming from post-ups, it makes him a hard target for these shots. He has taken 12 in his career and has yet to convert one.
It played out in a close game for the Sixers against the Celtics in February. In the final minute, the Sixers end up with an Embiid post up. He gets pushed out to nearly the three-point line and eventually gets the ball stripped by Horford.
How About Simmons? Here's the Thing...
This isn't the season for Ben Simmons to be the go-to guy either, but it's not for the reason most think. There is no secret about his inability to shoot hurting in clutch situations, but that hasn't stopped Giannis Antetokounmpo at the end of games.
The problem for Simmons is that he's a career 58.3 percent free-throw shooter. It was such an issue in a tied game against the Miami Heat two seasons ago that Dwyane Wade intentionally fouled him with 24 seconds left. He missed one of two, and the Heat went on to win.
The poor free-throw percentage manifests itself in other ways too; it makes Simmons want to give up the ball more than take the shot.
Here is a clear example: After forcing a steal, Simmons is on the break with under 30 seconds and the game tied. Instead of attacking the lane and forcing Cody Zeller to meet him at the rim, he passes it off to Embiid, who draws a blocking foul. This is a risky play because the pass gives Zeller a chance to get into position and draw a charge.
Gotta Be Harris, Right?
Harris does not have a long history of being a go-to guy. In his eight years in the NBA, he has only taken 22 shots to either take the lead or tie a game with 30 seconds or less left, according to Basketball Reference.
During his career, he has played in 167 "tight" games (up or down three with three minutes left), averaging just 0.8 points per game, shooting 41.9 percent from the field and 31.2 percent from three, per NBA.com.
A lot of Harris' work in the clutch has been playing off others and not as the primary ball-handler. In Philly, he played off Butler, Embiid and Simmons.
In the same game against Boston earlier, the Sixers are down two with two minutes to go. Simmons begins to post up Gordon Hayward, with Redick setting a screen on the weak side that springs Harris for a wide-open three that he misses.
Now down three with 13 seconds left, the Sixers are using the post to set up a game-tying shot. Harris inbounds to Embiid and comes off another Redick screen, but the Celtics take that action away. Now they are in scramble mode, and Embiid hits Harris and sets a ball screen for him. Harris comes off and misses a pull-up three.
It was a similar scenario with the Los Angeles Clippers, with Lou Williams as the primary ball-handler in clutch time. He had a usage rate of 39.1 percent before Harris was on the team, while Harris had 13.6 percent usage in those clutch games before being traded.
In a tied game against Charlotte in February, Williams is holding for the last shot when the Hornets try to double, and Harris ends up with the ball and Kemba Walker on him. He drives right by him and sinks in a game-winning floater, one of his eight career game-winning or game-tying shots.
Harris has not had a lot of opportunities to be the guy. His other seven game-winners are all different types of shots, from putbacks, transition plays, spot-up threes and plays off screens. It's unclear whether he can be given the ball at the top of the key and told to go attack.
Life Without Butler
The Sixers got a little taste of closing a game after Butler was ejected in Game 4 against the Nets. Up one with under a minute left, Harris is the lead ball-handler, rejects a screen and hits the popping Embiid, who thinks he has Redick open, but Caris LeVert recovers to come up with a steal.
Then down one with 25 seconds left, the Sixers come out of a timeout with a nice play set up. The design is to get the ball to Embiid right in front of the rim, with everyone on the weak side lifted up high taking away any help. Joe Harris still comes over and knocks the ball out of Embiid's hands. The Sixers, though, get a fortuitous bounce, and the ball gets tipped to Mike Scott, who hits the game-winning three.
It's hard to go to a big man consistently at the end of games, so that takes out Embiid.
Until his free-throw shooting improves, Simmons cannot be the guy.
That leaves Harris to take over at the end of games. He has the skills, but does he have what it takes to be the guy? The Sixers' championship aspirations could depend on it.
