Which Head Coach Should the Lakers Target Next If They Fire Luke Walton?

LOS ANGELES — Los Angeles Lakers head coach Luke Walton may end up being the fall guy for his team's disappointing season.

That may not be fair. The Lakers were in fourth place in the Western Conference before LeBron James strained his groin on Christmas Day—not to mention other significant injuries to Lonzo Ball (ankle), Brandon Ingram (blood clot) and Rajon Rondo (hand, twice). But Walton—one of the last remaining notable names from the pre-Magic Johnson/Rob Pelinka era—seems likely to take the blame.

James hasn't publicly thrown Walton under the bus, but in January, ESPN's Jackie MacMullan said LeBron's camp "would prefer a coaching change." Various executives and other media members believe the Lakers will fire Walton after the season.

Fair or not, speculation about potential Walton replacements is well underway.

On Tuesday, one new name surfaced with favorable odds: Miami Heat assistant and Pelinka's former University of Michigan teammate Juwan Howard. 

Howard is one of many assistants around the league deserving of a promotion, but is he ready for everything that comes with coaching James and the Lakers? The Lakers job may eat an inexperienced coach alive, but he might get that chance should James and Pelinka both believe he's ready for the challenge.

James may not mind a first-year coach if it's one he knows and trusts. He won two championships with James in Miami and made the move to the bench in James' final year with the Heat.

If the Lakers want the best shot at winning now, Tyronn Lue is the obvious choice among all of the rumored candidates. He won a championship with James in Cleveland as the lead man on the bench and has experienced the intense scrutiny that comes with coaching him.

Lue, who replaced David Blatt midway through the 2016 season, had a .624 winning percentage during his three-year Finals run with the Cavaliers. Under Lue, the 2016-17 Cavaliers had the league's third-best offensive rating (114.3), per NBA.com, but they were tied for 27th on defense (112.6). In Lue's second season, the Cavaliers were fifth on offense (112.0) and 29th on defense (111.0), but he was still able to navigate his team to the Finals in both years.

He also won back-to-back titles with Los Angeles as a backup guard in 1999-2000 and 2000-01. 

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Mark Jackson, part of the Klutch Sports family—the agency founded by James' longtime friend and agent, Rich Paul—would also be a suitable choice. 

Johnson has spoken highly of Jackson in the past. After the Golden State Warriors let Jackson go in 2014, Johnson tweeted: "If any NBA team is looking for a great coach, Mark Jackson is now available."

Given his ties to both James and Johnson, Jackson should perhaps be considered the front-runner. He taught the Warriors how to play defense at a high level (although his successor, Steve Kerr, unlocked the team's offensive potential). It's unclear whether Jackson's offensive vision has evolved in recent years while he's served one of the top color commentators with ABC and ESPN.

Lue might be a better option offensively, while Jackson may be the favorite if the Lakers prioritize defense. There's also the possibility that Johnson might base his decision more on relationships than the X's and O's of coaching entirely.

Perhaps that's why Jason Kidd is still considered a candidate, despite his struggles in Milwaukee. In January, Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher mentioned Kidd as a possible Walton replacement. Later in the spring, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted Kidd would be "among the serious candidates for the Lakers coaching job" if the team fires Walton.

Last week, Kidd (who coached the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks) told ESPN's Rachel Nichols on The Jump, "If you ever have the opportunity to wear the purple and gold, you can't turn that down—as a coach, as a player—because they're all about championships."

That led to a rebuttal from ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith, who stated on First Take, "In this particular story, the Lakers are saying, 'No, we're not interested in Jason Kidd." If Smith does have a pipeline to the Lakers' front office—he has a strong relationship with Johnson publicly—his recent commentary that Jackson is a better fit for the Lakers than Kidd speaks volumes.

Whether the rumors are true or not, it's worth looking at Kidd through the prism of ESPN.com's Kirk Goldsberry, who recently explained why Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer deserves to win this year's Coach of the Year award.

The numbers do not reflect well on Kidd's Milwaukee tenure. The Bucks have dramatically improved under Budenholzer in categories such as three-pointers made, defensive efficiency and winning percentage.

Los Angeles has asked Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski in the past if he'd leave the Blue Devils for the Lakers. Coach K has never been willing before, and there's no reason to expect that will change, even though he has a connection to James from their time together with Team USA.

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The Lakers may also pursue college coaches such as Michigan State's Tom Izzo (Johnson's former school), Kansas' Bill Self and Michigan's John Beilein (Pelinka's alma mater), among others.

Given the Lakers' expectation to compete for a championship with James and future acquisitions, they're unlikely to hire a first-time coach (like San Antonio Spurs assistant Becky Hammon), although Howard could be an exception. While Krzyzewski has never run an NBA team, the Lakers certainly wouldn't view him as a rookie.

Meanwhile, Walton still has the position. It's difficult to gauge how much blame he deserves for the team's struggles this season. He didn't put the flawed roster together, one that lacked steady shooting and initially had only one experienced center in JaVale McGee.

The Lakers did add Tyson Chandler early in the season, but he struggled to stay healthy. Ivica Zubac broke out, but Johnson and Pelinka traded him to the Clippers for Mike Muscala, who did not make a positive impact on the Lakers' failed playoff chase.

The Lakers' public pursuit of New Orleans Pelicans All-Star big man Anthony Davis at the trade deadline didn't help team morale, either.

Ultimately, the 2018-19 Lakers weren't built to win a title unless they avoided significant injuries and their younger players rapidly matured. It's easy to blame Walton for odd rotations and poor results, and he is undeniably responsible for some of what went wrong this year, but was it enough to get him fired?

Deserved or not, Walton is likely coaching his final few games for the franchise. Johnson and Pelinka haven't remade the team's roster and staff yet, but the purge seems inevitable.

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