Even Without Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors Have Talent Edge over Spurs
The NBA playoffs are finally here, and it couldn't come soon enough for the Golden State Warriors. Their final stretch wasn't pretty.
Headlined by a 40-point drubbing at the hands of the Utah Jazz, the Warriors dropped six of those final 10 games and finished that stretch with an offensive rating of 105.6 (which would have ranked 17th on the year), a defensive rating of 109.9 (which would have ranked 29th) and a net rating of -4.3 (would have ranked 25th). Not great Bob dot gif.
This all transpired without Stephen Curry, who missed the final 10 games of the regular season and 16 of the Warriors' last 17 due to injury. But Golden State was already locked into the second seed, and finishing the season strong wasn't necessarily a priority.
Curry is beyond critical to what the Warriors do. There will always be a debate, but he's their most important player. Kevin Durant even called Curry "the system" in Golden State, and that's absolutely correct.
Curry is not expected to play even a minute in the first round, which puts them in a precarious position heading into a first-round playoff matchup with the San Antonio Spurs.
How precarious? ESPN's Zach Lowe reported rival executives would rather play the Warriors in the first round because of their disinterest down the stretch. "I was talking with several coaches and execs from teams in the West morass from 3 to 8, 9," Lowe said. "The fear factor for the Warriors without Curry does not exist. There are people who will say, 'I'd rather play the Warriors right now in the first round than the Thunder or the Jazz.
"These are G-chats and texts that are happening last night during the Jazz's destruction of a team that clearly doesn't care very much."
The Spurs may feel they've lucked into an easier first-round matchup, but that's betting heavy on the Warriors not caring enough to take the Spurs seriously, and Curry's absence being too much to overcome. To that end, it should be encouraging to Spurs fans.
The Warriors do need to engage intensity mode in order to make it to the second round. But, they also need to plug the Curry-shaped hole in the starting lineup. Just because they're so talented elsewhere doesn't mean Curry's absence won't be a problem.
Luckily, they've found their guy in Quinn Cook, who has filled in nicely. He's been able to serve as the primary option when Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson were out with injury. Even better, he is an elite three-point shooter who operates well off the ball, allowing the Warriors to use him in their system as a floor-spacer and cutter who can run some pick-and-roll in a pinch.
Whether he will be enough is another question. He'll have his work cut out for him against the stingy Spurs' point-of-attack defense, which, by the way, finished fourth in defensive efficiency without Kawhi Leonard, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year. With LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol in their starting lineup. Coach Gregg Popovich is a sorcerer.
Cook's production aside, the Warriors are stylistically a very different team without Curry to serve as the offensive engine. In his absence, Durant assumes that role, and his usage follows suit. Up from 29.9 to 34.5, expect more isolations, more mid-range pull-ups and less open shots created by Curry's gravity. Durant may be impossible to stop anyway, but that's not the Warriors' best offense.
Regardless of how engaged the Warriors are and how their style of play changes, they're still supremely talented without Curry. On paper, the Spurs aren't very close. They rely on sharp basketball fundamentals, but they're reduced by their shot selection. Taking the fourth-fewest shots at the rim, fifth-fewest three-pointers and fourth-most mid-range attempts, their offensive production is not what it could be if they prioritized more efficient looks.
This isn't to subjugate the Spurs offense. Popovich has concocted the league's 17th-best offense despite their old-school shot selection and without their best player. This will be grueling for the Spurs. For possibly the first time ever, the Spurs have dealt with their share of off-court problems. The NBA is famous for its petty wars and soap opera, but the Leonard drama is on another level.
Most recently, Pop said Leonard was with his "group" in New York, per Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News.
"I don't know when he and his group are going to feel like they are ready to go," Popovich said. "If I knew, he'd be here. When he and his group feel he's ready, then he'll be ready."
Leonard could certainly make a comeback, but those prospects seem slim, and from the Warriors' perspective, it makes more sense to game-plan for San Antonio without their star.
For the Warriors, catching the Leonard-less Spurs is a break. It's impossible to count Popovich out because he is one of the best coaches in NBA history, but their lack of talent without Leonard may be too much to overcome. However, that could either afford the Warriors a chance to turn on the jets or lull them further into complacency, waiting for their most important player to return to action in Round 2.
It seems rare that both teams entering a series might be breathing a sigh of relief about their opponent, but the Warriors and the Spurs are just what each team needs in a first-round matchup.
Stats via NBA.com, CleaningtheGlass.com, NBAwowy.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted. Follow Will Gottlieb on Twitter: @wontgottlieb.
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