Playing Trade or Keep with NBA's Top Trade Assets
The Blake Griffin trade was a useful reminder that players whose names aren't tumbling around the rumor mill for three months can be dealt in a flash. The corollary: Guys who've seemed halfway out the door since the season started aren't necessarily goners.
Still, we've seen a handful of players linked to incessant trade chatter all year. And if only to offer some finality on the matter, we're here to make a simple trade-or-keep suggestion.
Operating from the perspective of the potential trade target's current team, we'll dig into the nuances, sift around in the pros and cons and make a judgment. These are complicated decisions, but we've let uncertainty linger too long.
It's time to make a call.
Keep in mind, the NBA's financial landscape is changing. Money's going to get tighter, and that affects these decisions. A player's looming free agency doesn't necessarily mean his club should scramble to get assets back before he signs an inevitable max deal with someone else. Freeing up cap space and getting depth, youth or draft assets is always valuable to teams that aren't contending, but the days of panic-trading a free-agent-to-be are largely over.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
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The Blake Griffin trade changed the calculus here.
That's not to say the Los Angeles Clippers are suddenly scrubbed clean of all their foolish big-money commitments (Hi, Danilo Gallinari!). But getting Griffin off the books is a major cap-refresher.
What's more, the pieces L.A. got back—principally Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley—open up intriguing possibilities. Harris is a true three-point threat whose best position is power forward. He makes much more sense alongside Jordan than Griffin did. Even if Harris isn't the passer or ball-handler Griffin was, he'll space the floor better and attack the rim off closeouts. And with a declining deal that'll pay him less than half of what Griffin makes next year, he'll offer that better fit on the cheap.
Considering the dearth of interest in old-school big men and the empty coffers around the league, it now makes more sense than ever for the Clippers to let Jordan hit free agency. Granted, a gambit like this works about a thousand times better when the free agent in question is restricted (because the Clips could just match another team's offer), but we shouldn't assume several teams will come kicking down Jordan's door with max offers.
L.A. will still have Jordan's Bird rights, which gives it an advantage. It's time to play free-agency chicken.
Besides, if there were a no-brainer offer out there for Jordan, the Clippers would have already taken it.
Verdict: Keep
Lou Williams, Los Angeles Clippers
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This Clips impending free agent is a little different.
Because while Jordan's durability and proven two-way steadiness make him a pretty safe bet on a potential long-term deal this summer, Los Angeles shouldn't feel the same way about Lou Williams.
Give Williams this: He may have saved the Clippers' season. His scoring surge when Griffin went out, which remarkably continued once Griffin returned, averted what everyone assumed would be a total collapse. He's been fantastic, and any detractors ought to pull up highlights from the 50-spot he hung on the Golden State Warriors in L.A.'s first win over the defending champs since Christmas...of 2014.
But that's precisely why the Clips should move Williams. His value will never be higher.
He's in his age-31 season, and he's averaging a career-high 23.4 points per game on solid efficiency (52.5 effective field-goal percentage). Though he's a crafty player who isn't necessarily reliant on athleticism, Williams is still human. He's going to decline as he gets deeper into his 30s.
The Boston Celtics are reportedly targeting Williams, and any contender with second-unit scoring issues should have similar interest. L.A. should have its pick of offers.
Verdict: Trade
Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz
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Rudy Gobert has been on a miniature tear lately, but his production and, more importantly for this argument, availability, have declined this season.
Even if some of the dings and tweaks that have knocked him out since last postseason's ugly knee injury against the Clippers have been a little fluky (including a bone bruise in his right knee and a sprained PCL in his left knee this season), the Jazz must contend with the possibility that a healthy Gobert may not be the dominant force he was pre-injury.
When guys get hurt and recover, they don't always make it all the way back to their peak levels.
From that perspective, a really good backup center is suddenly less of a luxury than it once seemed to be, which means Derrick Favors' value to the Jazz is increasing. To be clear, Utah shouldn't break the bank for a guy who belongs behind Gobert in the rotation; overpaying backups is a great way to ruin your roster.
But when you consider how Favors has been available for a good long while with no deal going down, per ESPN's Zach Lowe, it seems to indicate good offers aren't pouring in—possibly because of Favors' own spotty health history. When you also include the inability/unwillingness of cash-strapped teams to spend more than the mid-level exception on a fringe starter this summer, it becomes more reasonable for Utah to believe it can re-sign Favors at or below normal market values.
Verdict: Keep
Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
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The Charlotte Hornets are set to pay Dwight Howard, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Glichrist and Cody Zeller over $88 million next year. Howard comes off the books after that, but the remaining four players will cost Charlotte another $68 million in 2019-20.
The Hornets are beyond cash-strapped.
Kemba Walker is due to hit free agency in the summer of 2019, which means Charlotte's negotiating leverage with interested parties is diminishing by the second. If the Hornets are ever going to get off some of their bad money, re-stock their draft cupboard and pull out of this mess, they'll have to move their best player.
Except...
"[Owner Michael Jordan] called [Walker] and they had a great talk about it," Hornets head coach Steve Clifford told reporters. "I think it would be very difficult to imagine a situation where he would be traded. He's the face of our franchise, he's an All-Star player. ... Obviously, you never say never. I just think it'd be very difficult to find a scenario where he'd be traded."
Here's another scenario to consider: Walker, tired of a franchise so committed to paying premium prices (to everyone but him) for mediocrity, gets a fat offer next summer and leaves.
Verdict: Trade
George Hill, Sacramento Kings
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The Sacramento Kings aren't in a hurry to move George Hill, according to Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee.
Because of course they're not.
Why rectify a bad offseason decision (using cap space on veterans instead of taking on bad money with picks attached) by getting those picks, or at least younger assets, in exchange for an experienced point guard who could really help a playoff team?
Why take advantage of this second shot at sensible roster-building? Why force younger players into heavier minutes, thereby accelerating the tank?
Why anything, Kings? Why anything?
Verdict: Trade
Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic are "gauging the trade market" on Gordon, according to the Athletic's Michael Scotto, and it's hard to fault this organization for considering change of any kind.
But maybe Gordon isn't the place to start.
Per ESPN's Zach Lowe: "Trade Gordon, and you have almost nothing beyond Jonathan Isaac to show for years of post-Dwight tanking. Gordon is really good. He will get better. Even at a big salary, he is worth more than the typical No. 6, 7, or 8 pick on a cost-controlled rookie-scale salary."
And that's the thing: Gordon might not get as big a salary as expected.
If someone throws him a hefty offer sheet in free agency, maybe the Magic decide then that they'd rather have the cap space. With so many teams looking to get off bad contracts, that room could entice an ugly deal and a pick for Orlando's trouble. That's one way to get a rebuild going.
But if the cash doesn't come pouring in, the Magic could match a reasonable offer or agree to one with Gordon outright.
Better to put out feelers on Elfrid Payton or Evan Fournier than cut bait with a lottery pick who has shown serious growth this year—and is still only 22.
Verdict: Keep
Tyreke Evans, Memphis Grizzlies
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There's not much difference between the logic behind L.A. trading Williams and the Memphis Grizzlies flipping Tyreke Evans.
Both are reliable bench weapons who've produced career seasons for struggling teams. Both have spent considerable time as starters, too, without any significant statistical decline. That's important for suitors who'll need to trust Williams/Evans against playoff-level competition. Sustaining production against first units is a good sign.
Both are due to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, and neither figure into their teams' long-term plans. And finally, Evans' numbers this season (19.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists on 39.2 percent shooting from deep) were just as worthy of borderline All-Star consideration as Williams'...if Evans' team had done a lot more winning.
The key difference is that the Grizz are telegraphing their intentions to make the right keep-or-trade call.
They're sitting Evans, per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
Verdict: Trade
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
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The value's just not there right now.
Plus, Memphis could just as easily shut Marc Gasol down, aim for the top of the lottery and add a stud rookie to make the big man's life easier next year.
You'd have to think he'll be motivated to prove he can still be a star after a down year like this, and perhaps a fresh start, Mike Conley's return and a new head coach back would rejuvenate him.
Saying Memphis has hope to be much better next year with Gasol returning to form is the positive way to approach it. The pragmatic concern gets you to the same place, though. The Grizz shouldn't trade Gasol now because they can't possibly expect to get a fair return. If they want to eventually move on, the smarter time to do it is next season, when Gasol's value is hypothetically rehabilitated, and when there's one fewer year left on his deal.
The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported that although teams are inquiring about Gasol's availability, there's little chance Memphis pulls the trigger.
Good.
Verdict: Keep
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
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Having already encouraged the Jazz to keep Derrick Favors, it might seem odd to suggest they move on from Rodney Hood—particularly since his impending restricted free agency gives the Jazz considerable control over the amount of his next contract...and whether they'll be the ones to pay it.
But Hood's persistent health problems (he missed about 20 games per year through his first three seasons and 15 so far in 2017-18) mean he's a risky re-signing candidate. The particulars are different, but the Jazz signed Alec Burks to a four-year extension in 2014 and got a total of 100 games over his next three seasons.
If any team has an excuse to be cautious in this regard, it's Utah.
Hood can play, which is probably why the Thunder, Bulls and Pistons are interested in his services, according to Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune. A good three-point shooter who defends more than one position adequately, Hood is the type of talent who fits anywhere.
He's not much of a passer and will always be limited in his efficiency because of an inability to get all the way to the hole (and the foul line). Somebody is going to want him, and if the Jazz know they'd rather spend their money this offseason on someone they can trust to stay healthy, why not move him now?
Verdict: Trade
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
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