Washington Redskins: Over/Under Predictions for 2017 Season

Kirk Cousins throwing over 30 touchdowns, Jonathan Allen finishing his rookie year with 10 or more sacks and Terrelle Pryor topping 1,200 yards receiving are among the main things sure to add up to a successful season for the Washington Redskins.

Naturally, whether any of these things will happen is another matter altogether. Betting the over or under on predictions such as these relies on a few key factors.

For one thing, Cousins is under no small amount of pressure after betting on himself by accepting to play under a second straight franchise tag. He will be counting on players such as Pryor, who has just one season's worth of experience as a pro wide receiver, replacing the departed Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.

Big things are naturally expected of Allen, the 17th overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. However, he's still a rookie, one whose shoulders are a concern and one being asked to anchor a new-look defensive line.

Read on for an over or under call on eight predictions ahead of the Redskins' 2017 season.

Josh Norman Has 6 Interceptions

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Norman was signed to be the shutdown cornerback on this team and the cover man that quarterbacks don't want to risk testing, so he may find it tough to post six interceptions or more in 2017.

After all, the tally would represent a career best by some distance for Norman. The 29-year-old's previous high mark for INTs came in 2015, when he snatched four passes to help the Carolina Panthers reach a Super Bowl.

It was the same season Norman and the rest of the Panthers secondary were buoyed by intense pressure up front. A terrific front four kept the heat high on opposing quarterbacks to force a healthy share of errant throws.

The presence of inside linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis locking down receivers underneath also meant most quarterbacks were hurried into difficult throws to the outside—the type of passes opportunistic defensive backs dream about.

Norman doesn't have the benefit of quite the same supporting cast in Washington. Things look better defensively after an offseason largely dedicated to fixing this side of the ball, but there are still question marks.

Will the new D-line jell quickly? Can Allen live up his draft status? Will free-agent acquisitions Terrell McClain and Stacy McGee justify their contracts?

Similarly, can a healthy Junior Galette, along with rookie Ryan Anderson, provide the increased pass rush Washington needs to make life tougher for quarterbacks?

Failure in this area would naturally make Norman's job harder.

If there is one reason to think he could still pilfer more passes in his second season wearing Burgundy and Gold, it's the talent around him in the Redskins secondary. The presence of Bashaud Breeland on the other side, as well as the potential of Kendall Fuller, Quinton Dunbar and third-round pick Fabian Moreau, may mean Norman is tested more than many expect.

However, six interceptions or more still seem like a tall order.

Prediction: Under

Jonathan Allen Gets 10 Sacks

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Life will be a whole lot easier for Norman and Co. if Allen proves to be the pocket-collapsing game-wrecker his draft status says he is. It's worth noting this is an interior defensive lineman so highly regarded he was considered a steal even after coming off the board as early as 17th.

There are ample reasons to believe Allen will live up to the hype and be the force Washington's front seven has needed for too long. First, there is the talent and all-around game he showcased during four years at Alabama.

Allen played everywhere along the front for head coach Nick Saban and his hybrid schemes in Mobile. He proved himself adept as a formidable run-stuffer and explosive pass-rusher from a variety of techniques. Quality coaching is also something Allen can expect to receive in Washington, where line guru Jim Tomsula is one of the league's best.

There are so many positives surrounding Allen, yet there are also questions. Most notably, the health of his shoulders. Allen has undergone surgery on both, amid issues with arthritis.

There are those concerned about how long he will hold up in the pros, per ProFootballDoc writing for the San Diego Union-Tribune: "Already playing with bilateral shoulder braces, a projected move to the interior line would place even more stress on his arms as he attempts to occupy multiple blockers."

Aside from his health, Allen will need the support of the fresh faces set to ply their trade along Washington's defensive front in 2017. It means McClain and McGee must deliver. Both are talented linemen but were rotational players in their previous stops with the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders, respectively.

The holdovers on the Redskins line are also a mixed bag, with Ziggy Hood the pick of a bunch also featuring ultra-brittle Phil Taylor and untested Joey Mbu.

Allen will be good as a rookie, but he'll fall just under the double-digit mark for sacks.

Prediction: Under

Jordan Reed Has 90 Receptions

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

If you don't believe Jordan Reed can break records at his position in 2017, you haven't been paying enough attention to No. 86. He is perhaps the most dynamic "move" tight end in the NFL who is steadily getting better in every one of his four seasons in the pros.

Yet if Reed hinted at greatness his first two years after being drafted in the third round in 2013 by Mike Shanahan, he has moved at lightning speed the last two seasons under head coach Jay Gruden.

Reed was just 48 yards short of 1,000 and three catches shy of 90 receptions in 2015. He'll break both marks this season.

One reason Reed did so well two years ago was he stayed healthy, appearing in a career-high 14 games (eight starts).

To underline the importance of Reed avoiding injury, CSN Mid-Atlantic's Rich Tandler believes the playmaker can top 1,000 yards if he gets in 13 games.

The Redskins need Reed to remain upright in 2017, especially given the changes at receiver. There is no more Jackson and Garcon to take coverage away from Reed.

Yet the absence of Cousins' two best wideouts should see Reed get the ball more often. Even in just 12 appearances in 2016, he still managed 66 grabs.

Reed is primed for greatness, a view starting to be shared around the league.

Earlier this summer, MMQB writers Andy Benoit and Gary Gramling compared Reed favorably to San Diego Chargers great Antonio Gates on an edition of their 10 Things Podcast (h/t Sports Illustrated, via CSN Mid-Atlantic's Peter Hailey).

Gamling said: "Reed reminds me of a young Antonio Gates. I remember back in the day when Champ Bailey would try and cover Antonio Gates, and Gates would shake him. That's kind of what Jordan Reed is now."

Meanwhile, Benoit was clear about how far Reed's immense talent can take him:

"It would be wonderful for Reed to become that kind of professional athlete that Gates became, because if Reed can develop his game the way Gates did, Jordan Reed will go to the Hall of Fame, too. He's a long way off from that even being an appropriate discussion, but we're trying to get the point across: that's the kind of talent that he has right now."

Joining the Gates bracket will come for Reed once he reaches the 90-catch plateau. Gates never managed it, although he did finish one reception shy in 2005.

Reed has a better chance because he will be Cousins' go-to guy more than ever this season. With Pryor, Jamison Crowder and fellow tight end Vernon Davis around, there are still enough weapons to prevent defenses from zeroing in on Reed.

Prediction: Over

Terrelle Pryor Posts 1,200 Yards

Nick Wass/Associated Press

On the surface, Pryor has everything he needs to prove last season was no fluke. He has a competent Pro Bowl quarterback throwing him passes, along with the support of a platoon of other capable receivers.

Neither of those things was a luxury Pryor enjoyed in 2016 as a member of the 1-15 Cleveland Browns. Posting 77 receptions and 1,007 yards on football's worst team spoke volumes about Pryor's skills as a wideout.

Being surrounded by more talent should equate to more yards and more catches for the 28-year-old in D.C., right? Well, even though it may appear a simple equation, the stronger supporting cast around him could actually limit what Pryor does during his first year in Washington.

It's the view of CSN Mid-Atlantic's Rich Tandler: "Last year he got over 1,000 yards receiving with the disadvantage of playing with bad quarterbacks in Cleveland but the advantage of there being no other viable targets on the team. This year he'll have a much better quarterback, but Kirk Cousins will have plenty of guys to throw to."

Tandler thinks Pryor doesn't reach triple digits in 2017. It's not the most generous estimate, even if targets such as Reed and Crowder will surely take catches away from him.

Yet there are still reasons to believe Pryor won't be lacking in the yardage department. The best of those reasons involve the size and speed combination he brings to Gruden's offense.

At 6'4" and 228 pounds, Pryor has the frame to contest and win jump balls. He can climb the ladder and beat any DB in the league to the football as well as possessing the vertical speed to stretch coverage deep.

Those attributes add up to one simple yet crucial thing: big plays.

Pryor won't have as many receptions as he did in 2016, but he'll do more with what he gets in Washington. As the man most likely to replace the deep threat Jackson imposed on games, Pryor is still a good bet to top 1,000 yards.

However, the desire to get others involved means this talented wideout won't crack the 1,200-yard mark.

Prediction: Under

Chris Thompson Catches 60 Passes

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Redskins haven't had a running back break the 60-catch barrier since Larry Centers did it in 1999 and 2000. Chris Thompson appears primed to snap the streak.

Thompson is on the verge of a breakout season as an increasingly valuable piece in Gruden's offense. The fifth-round pick from 2013 posted career highs for both rushing attempts (68) and receptions (49) in 2016.

While those numbers appear to hint at a greater importance in the running game, remember the Redskins drafted Samaje Perine in the fourth round for a reason. He is sure to handle most of the rushing chores alongside Rob Kelley.

Thompson is the speed complement to Kelley and Perine's brute force, anyway. At 5'8" and 191 pounds, he is unlikely to work defenses over on 25 or 30 punishing rushing attempts.

Instead, Thompson's best work comes out in space as a receiver. Gruden has expanded the type of routes Thompson attacks coverage on, with circle, wheel and swing concepts now as common as screens for the dynamic 26-year-old.

Pass-catching will remain this player's forte, with Gruden already making clear he sees Thompson's best fit on third downs, per ESPN.com's John Keim: "There's nobody who’s better as a third-down back than Chris. He has a huge role on our team. Whether he does more on first or second down will be determined. I'm sure he will. He's so valuable on third down, I have to keep him in that role for now."

Thompson will continue to get passes thrown his way and he's likely to see more as Cousins and the offense adjust post-Garcon and Jackson.

There is going to be a lot of passes to go around, even with Reed breaking 90 and Pryor being fed deep. Expect just over 60 to land Thompson's way in an offense still defined by success through the air.

Prediction: Over

Kirk Cousins Throws 30 Touchdown Passes

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Redskins couldn't agree a new long-term contract with Cousins, leaving the team's starting quarterback to play a second straight season under a franchise tag.

It's an unhealthy situation to be in at football's most important position and one sure to impact Cousins, despite his confidence to the contrary.

Cousins has already said he is content to back himself this year and let his play do the talking ahead of contract talks in 2018, per 106.7 The Fan (h/t Kevin Patra of NFL.com): "While the ball is in my court during the season to play football well, the ball certainly goes back to the Redskins' court to continue this process."

It's the same thing Cousins did when he was tagged in 2015. Backing himself then led to a first trip to the Pro Bowl. However, things look a lot different this year.

The primary difference is Cousins no longer has two 1,000-yard receivers to lean on. There may be plenty of talent remaining in the Redskins' receiving corps, specifically Reed, Crowder and Thompson, while Pryor will also make his presence felt.

Yet it would be foolish to discount how much Jackson and Garcon may be missed. The latter is one of the best intermediate targets of his generation, a tough-as-nails possession receiver who makes the circus catches and turns short grabs into big plays.

Speaking of big plays, no receiver made them more of a forte than Jackson, who can make a strong case for being the most effective deep threat in the game. He was the get-out ball Cousins knew he could always rely on.

Being without two receivers this talented would impact any quarterback, even if Cousins' arm will still carry this team.

Don't ignore the impact Kelley and Perine could have on Cousins' numbers, either. Both are bruisers between the tackles who can thrive near the goal line, reducing the number of passes the Redskins throw from close in.

More than who he is throwing to, Cousins' relationship with the team, particularly the front office, could play a major role in determining his success this season.

The relationship is frayed in the eyes of many, including Thom Loverro of the Washington Times, who believes team president Bruce Allen has damaged Cousins' credibility.

In particular, Loverro chided Allen for revealing the offer made to Cousins that he rejected:

"They called Bruce Allen the 'Prince of Darkness' when he ran the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and this week he pulled out his poison pen to remind everyone why. In a statement written in Kirk Cousins' blood, the Prince of Darkness exiled the team's starting quarterback with a scarlet 'G' for greed on his Washington Redskins helmet."

Allen's actions could lead to a quicker-than-expected divorce between Cousins and the Redskins, at least according to Rick Snider of the Washington Post:

"After failing to reach an extension with Cousins by the NFL's deadline Monday, the team tried to blame the QB. President Bruce Allen, who rarely discusses contracts, shared the club's offer to Cousins, thereby portraying the player as a mercenary ready to depart after another season under the franchise tag.

This relationship is going to end badly, and it might end sooner than expected."

Snider thinks there is a chance Cousins may be benched by Thanksgiving in favor of backup Colt McCoy.

Anything is possible, but these do read a lot like doomsday scenarios put forth before Cousins has even gotten used to the feel of a second tag.

A middle ground seems more likely, one where Cousins isn't quite as effective as he was in 2015, but still good enough to direct a prolific offense and guide the Redskins to a third winning record in a row.

Cousins threw 25 touchdown passes a year ago and he'll hover around same number again.

Prediction: Under

Kirk Cousins Throws 10 Interceptions

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Cousins may not put as many scoring strikes on the board as he has in previous seasons, but there are reasons to believe he will protect the ball better than ever before in 2017.

Turnovers have often been an issue for a QB who was an interception machine during his first few starts in the league. However, now Cousins can enjoy the benefit of a supporting cast tailored to encouraging shorter, safer throws.

Consider the three players likely to be among Cousins' favorite targets for 2017: Reed, Thompson and Crowder. All three are short-range or intermediate weapons, playmakers who turn quick and easy dump-offs into big yards after the catch.

Even a player like Davis affords Cousins an obvious safety valve underneath. With the right amount of "small ball" concepts in this offense, there should hardly be a need for Cousins to force things.

There will be even less of a need for Cousins to press the issue if the revamped defense plays up to its talent. A stouter D will mean the offense gets to protect leads more often, rather than chasing them down, often the case in the last two seasons.

If Cousins is protecting a lead, he will be more inclined to hand the ball off. Handing the ball off is something he will certainly do more often if the running game makes the strides expected, with Kelley looking to build on an impressive first season and Perine is a true sleeper as a rookie runner.

Enough signs point to Cousins throwing the fewest interceptions in a season of his career (his high is 12 last year).

Prediction: Under

Washington Wins 11-12 Games

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Redskins are more loaded than they have been at any time since Gruden took the reins in 2014. He is overseeing a dynamic and versatile offense, while the defense has been boosted by new faces and will benefit from better coaching this year.

Optimism is justified as the Burgundy and Gold prepare to make the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. Gruden's men were 9-7 when they won the NFC East and reached the postseason in 2015, but a double-digit winning season seems more within his reach in 2017.

As to exactly how many games the Redskins can win, the schedule should give cause for concern. One reason is the East is no longer the feeble division many have portrayed as in recent years.

Bitter rival Dallas is loaded offensively and boasts the most dominant run-blocking line in football. Meanwhile, the New York Giants could be primed for a Super Bowl run, thanks to quality passing game led by Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall along with a tough defense underpinned by Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Landon Collins.

Then there are the Philadelphia Eagles, led by a burgeoning star at quarterback in Carson Wentz. He will be better in Year 2 thanks to a productive offseason dedicated to putting better players around him, including running back LeGarrette Blount and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. An already solid defense will be better after a trade netted pocket-collapsing tackle Timmy Jernigan. Doug Pederson is also an outstanding young head coach.

Getting out of this division looks tough enough, but the Redskins will also have to deal with road trips to take on the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints. There are also games against the AFC West: the dangerous Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs.

Of course, Washington's own roster is loaded. Cousins has become arguably the best of the second tier of NFL starters, while Reed, Crowder, Thompson, Davis and Pryor form a supporting cast most teams would envy.

If the defense makes the strides it should, the Redskins will be a playoff team, even if 10-6 looks like their most realistic ceiling.

Prediction: Under