B/R Staff Predictions for 2017 NBA Draft
For those of you who claimed the 2016-17 NBA season was boring and anticlimactic...welcome to the offseason!
At this point, it's clear that "off" and "season" make up the league's biggest oxymoron. Since the Finals concluded, there's been enough action to make up for any uninspiring narratives that failed to pique your interest during Cavs-Warriors Round 3.
Now, it's all about trades (which we've already seen plenty of), free agency (right around the corner) and, yes, the draft.
Bleacher Report has gathered its top basketball minds to predict how this year's prospect selection will pan out. It's widely presumed the Philadelphia 76ers will select Markelle Fultz after trading for the No. 1 pick, but what will the rest of the lottery look like? Who will be the draft's biggest sleeper?
And, of course: What will LaVar Ball do to go viral?
The NBA's supposed dog days have already seen unprecedented action just a week and a half into the summer. Will the draft keep up the pace?
B/R's best take a look ahead.
Markelle Fultz Will Be the Best Player in 5 Years
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Markelle Fultz will be the top player from this draft, both next season and five years from now. He's the NBA's next big thing—something the Philadelphia 76ers clearly felt confident about when they traded away multiple first-round picks to secure the right of first refusal for his services.
It's going to sting the Boston Celtics. The C's will still land the third selection Thursday night and have plenty of opportunities to draft high again next summer, but they're missing out on a unique player who has already stated he believes he can compete for MVP in his rookie year. (As lofty as that statement is, confidence is key in the NBA.)
Fultz's ball skills, scoring and playmaking ability are highly advanced, and he has the athleticism and length to back them up.
I expect All-Star Game after All-Star Game for Fultz starting in year No. 3.
Lakers Will Draft Lonzo Ball
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Everything is and has been in play for Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka to accelerate the rebuild, as they're looking to maximize every position they have, but the Los Angeles Lakers are fully prepared to do the long-predicted and draft Lonzo Ball at No. 2.
One scenario is to come out of draft night with both Ball and Paul George while holding on to Brandon Ingram, but that requires cooperation from the Pacers.
Ball's offensive creativity is a great fit for Luke Walton's offense. A far greater concern than any distraction from Lonzo's dad, LaVar, is how Ball will grow as a defender after the Lakers were disappointed in D'Angelo Russell on that end despite his similar size. Ball's length and athleticism are good enough that as he gains strength, the hope is that he could guard all three perimeter positions.
Celtics Will Stay the (New) Course
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You want fireworks. You want Danny Ainge to package that No. 3 pick with the Nets' 2018 pick—or the future Lakers pick, or the future Kings pick—plus a couple of starters and cash it all in for Paul George or Jimmy Butler. We get it. We all love the draft-day blockbuster. But don't bet on it.
George is a tough play, an All-Star entering his walk year with clear intentions to move to Los Angeles in July 2018. It would be foolish for the Celtics to blow their assets on a possible one-year rental and then watch him sign with their longtime rivals.
As for Butler? If the Bulls were truly motivated, they surely could have made a deal with the Celtics by now. There are still conflicting signals about whether Chicago is willing to trade Butler at all.
So brace yourself for boredom—and for Boston to use its pick on another versatile, athletic wing. The bet here is Ainge selects Duke's Jayson Tatum, a sleek 6'8" forward with an enviable 6'11" wingspan and two-way potential. Yes, the Celtics already have Jae Crowder and Jaylen Brown, but in today's NBA you can never have too many long, nimble wings with the tools to defend multiple positions (or too many guys named Jay/Jae).
Tatum is a solid three-point shooter and a skilled isolation scorer who can use his strength to overpower smaller defenders and his speed to skip past bigger forwards. His post-up and midrange game would give the Celtics a much-needed release valve when defenses double-team Isaiah Thomas.
In the short term, Tatum provides coach Brad Stevens another plug-and-play rotation piece. In the long term, he gives Ainge another shiny chip to play when that blockbuster moment finally arrives.
Harry Giles Will Fall
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Plenty of scouts had Harry Giles No. 1 overall entering the season. Between his physical tools and impressive high school resume, there was a lot to like about the freshman when it came to both his collegiate projections and his eventual NBA ceiling despite an established injury history.
He'll now be lucky to go in the lottery after a preseason knee surgery—his third since his sophomore year in high school—and a one-and-done season with little production.
The potential reward no longer seems worth the risk of a high pick in the draft. He's highly injury prone, raw and inexperienced.
Don't be shocked if Giles is still on the board in the mid-to-late first round.
Derrick White Will Be This Year's Biggest Sleeper
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Derrick White is this year's sleeper to track. He's a scoring guard who can create his own shot, shoot or facilitate.
He's amazed observers with a surprise rise that shouldn't stop now.
A former Division II standout, White transferred to Colorado, sat out a year and then put together a huge season in the Pac-12. A standout performance against big names at the combine only helped validate the numbers he put up during the year.
We'll be talking about White's story for years once he breaks into the league. This isn't a player to bet against.
Phoenix Suns Will Draft Jonathan Isaac
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Jayson Tatum will appeal to the Phoenix Suns if he falls to No. 4, but he gets a hard pass from them if Jonathan Isaac is on the board. The same story goes for Josh Jackson.
It's true that Isaac doesn't match the superstar oomph carried by other top-seven prospects. He's more Patrick Patterson than Draymond Green. But there is immense value in having someone who can do a little bit of everything.
Isaac shot a high enough clip from beyond the arc (34.8 percent) and at the foul line (78.0 percent) to suggest his jumper will transform into a reliable weapon. He's shown he can put the ball on the floor, launch off the catch and explode around screens. He will lead the occasional fast break. He has the length to protect the rim and the foot speed to defend in space.
Every team needs this kind of two-way prospect, and the Suns are no different. They have a one-way titan in Devin Booker and two captivating, albeit raw, projects in Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. But Isaac could end up being the most complete and consistent talent of the bunch.
Kings Will Draft for Talent...and Also for Need
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Drafting for need is a mistake in almost every circumstance, and the rebuilding, cornerstone-less Sacramento Kings would be especially irresponsible if they did anything but take the best player available with both of their lottery picks.
There's a good chance, though, that the top overall talent left at No. 5 will also fill the Kings' most glaring need. If Josh Jackson makes it past the first four teams, Sacramento must consider him. But point guard De'Aaron Fox seems more likely to be there, and Sacramento should take him.
At No. 10, Lauri Markkanen would be a steal (and honestly someone the Kings could consider with their first pick). He and Fox would give the Kings a foundational pick-and-pop tandem—one that'd make use of Buddy Hield's gravity and Willie Cauley-Stein's perfect fit in the "dunker" spot. Those two represent Sacramento's optimal outcome, barring unforeseen slippage from someone like Jonathan Isaac.
Assuming Markkanen isn't around, the Kings could go with Zach Collins at No. 10. Sacramento is already laden with bigs after last year's draft netted Skal Labissere and Georgios Papagiannis, so Collins would have to fight for playing time, which is good! A young team like this will need to find competitive outlets somewhere.
Dennis Smith Jr. Goes to the Magic
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The Orlando Magic don't have to worry about whether Dennis Smith Jr. will fall to the No. 6 slot. He'll be there. They just need to find the guts to take him.
Elfrid Payton shouldn't stop them. It's because of him the point guard situation is even an issue. His jumper has never developed, and he's now one year away from restricted free agency. Smith lets the Magic ride out Payton's contract situation until next summer without feeling pressured to match any over-the-top offers that come down.
Oh, also: Smith is really good. The ACL injury he suffered as a senior in high school didn't bilk him of his moon-boots hops. He'll finish above the rim off the bounce and even throw down lobs. Point guards aren't supposed to do that. He has the physical tools to be a pesky defender, and his jumper is good enough for him to be stashed off the ball for those times he plays beside Payton.
Orlando needs a cornerstone to build around, and Smith has a better shot at anchoring a quality franchise than Payton or Aaron Gordon. The new front-office regime shouldn't shy from making this dare-to-be-great pick.
Timberwolves, Bulls Shake Up the Draft
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It's no secret the Minnesota Timberwolves, drafting at the No. 7 position, are dangling their pick tonight.
What they get for it is the big question. They hope, league sources say, to pry Jimmy Butler away from the Chicago Bulls and would be happy to sacrifice their pick to do so. (They have the cap room to absorb Butler's $18.7 million contract without sending anything back, although the Bulls assuredly want a young talented player as well as the pick.)
The T-Wolves' interest in Butler is not new territory—Tom Thibodeau was interested in acquiring Butler earlier this season. Butler developed into an All-Star under Thibodeau in Chicago and has been dangled by the Bulls to multiple teams for the last year.
While the Timberwolves' interest has been kept much quieter—in recent days, anyway—than the talk that the Cavaliers and Celtics would make bids for Butler, one Eastern Conference VP said the T-Wolves appear to be going after him harder than anybody. The VP even intimated that Thibodeau might be willing to part with Andrew Wiggins, the team's uber-athletic 22-year-old shooting guard, to land Butler, who would be an important locker room advocate of Thibodeau's disciplined defensive approach. Several league executives are surprised Thibodeau slogged through a 31-51 season without dealing for Butler or some other veteran help already.
Whatever the Timberwolves wind up doing—dealing for Butler or swapping for a future draft asset—using the seventh pick to acquire another young talent makes little sense. Their starting lineup last season averaged 23 years old, and that was with 26-year-old Ricky Rubio still ahead of waiting-in-the-wings 23-year-old point guard Kris Dunn.
Knicks Will Draft Frank Ntilikina
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A few days ago, all the talk that surrounded the New York Knicks and draft night was about whether they'd select a sharpshooting guard from Kentucky, an explosive athlete from NC State or a Frenchman with a last name no one knows how to pronounce.
Then the Kristaps Porzingis rumors started swirling, and now it seems like the future of the franchise could hinge on what team president Phil Jackson elects to do Thursday night.
The prediction here, though, is that the Knicks hold on to all their players and stay at No. 8 to draft Frank Ntilikina. Ntilikina's skill set fits into the triangle offense (lol) perfectly, whereas Dennis Smith is more of a pick-and-roll guard. That's something nearly every other NBA team would covet. The Knicks, though, are not like other NBA teams.
Ntilikina will be the pick.
With Top Point Guards Gone, Mavs Will Go Big
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Point guard is the most pressing need in the Metroplex. But with all the top options off the board, the Mavericks can start planning for their post-Dirk Nowitzki future by taking the player who most resembles the giant German in frame and game: Lauri Markkanen.
Like Nowitzki, Markkanen is a legit 7-footer with even-more-legit offensive skill. He drained 42.3 percent of his 4.4 three-point tries per game during his lone season at the University of Arizona. The Finnish forward is also adept at scoring inside the arc, courtesy of a tricky back-to-the-basket game and a fadeaway jumper that evokes visions of The Diggler.
Nowitzki's lesser traits (i.e. so-so rebounding, middling defense, subpar athleticism) also dog Markkanen. But if there's any organization that knows best how to deploy a towering sharpshooter with those deficiencies, it's the Mavs.
Charlotte Hornets Will Find Local Talent
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The Charlotte Hornets could use their 2017 draft pick to bring in local talent under Michael Jordan. The last time they drafted someone out of Tobacco Road was 2009, when the then-Bobcats nabbed Duke's Gerald Henderson Jr. with the No. 12 pick. North Carolina's Marvin Williams is the only player from that famed cluster of ACC schools who's currently on the roster in the Queen City.
There's nothing that says the Hornets have to keep prospects close to home, but this year might be the best time to do so.
If Charlotte wants a sharpshooter, it can target Duke's Luke Kennard. If general manager Rich Cho feels his team needs a wing stopper with improving range, he can look to North Carolina's Justin Jackson. Should power forward be the play, Wake Forest's John Collins looks like a solid pickup.
And in the event NC State's Dennis Smith Jr. slips, the Hornets could have a hard time passing him up, even with All-Star Kemba Walker already entrenched at point guard.
Detroit Pistons Will Add Shooting with Luke Kennard
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Whether the Detroit Pistons stick with Stan Van Gundy's patented four-out, one-in system and continue trying to build around Andre Drummond or veer off in another direction, one thing is abundantly clear: They desperately need more three-point shooting.
Even after attempting to address the issue in 2016-17, they finished No. 28 in three-point percentage (33.0 percent) and No. 26 in three-point attempts per game (23.4), which is incongruous with the Association's modern-day trends.
Enter Luke Kennard, the shooting guard from Duke who emerged as one of the NCAA's premier offensive threats during his sophomore season.
Kennard might not be a shot-creating force like some of his positional counterparts, but he can score both off the bounce and as a spot-up weapon. He took 5.4 triples per game and splashed them home at a 43.8 percent clip—numbers no member of the Pistons has ever matched or exceeded.
Denver Nuggets Will Holler at John Collins
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For the Denver Nuggets, this offseason revolves around two separate pursuits: finding a superstar (if possible) and acquiring a power forward who can complement Nikola Jokic. They likely won't achieve the former goal with the lottery's penultimate selection, but they can certainly aim at acquiring a big with both some semblance of stretchiness and rim-protecting skills.
John Collins, a 6'10" combo big out of Wake Forest, blocked 1.6 shots per game during his sophomore season—a tally that's even more impressive considering he played just 26.6 minutes during the average contest. The first part of this analysis is contested by other draftniks, but Josh Riddell of Draft Express writes: "It's unlikely he will become a dominant rim protector due to his reach, and he was often swiping at the ball or chasing blocks, but he can definitely grow into a player who makes it difficult for opponents around the rim thanks to his athleticism and natural instincts."
Though he missed the only three-point attempt of his collegiate career, a couple of factors indicate he could become a floor-spacing option as he develops. He's already hitting 74.5 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe, and he showcased a soft touch on face-up moves and mid-range jumpers for the Demon Deacons.
Miami Heat Will Draft Donovan Mitchell
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What if I told you the Miami Heat could land a prospect eerily reminiscent of Dwyane Wade?
"The Heat will have a tough time passing on [Donovan] Mitchell if the Hornets and Pistons do," Chad Ford wrote for ESPN.com. "His elite athleticism, length and game give him a passing resemblance to a young Dwyane Wade. I don't think he has that same ceiling, but his talent is definitely worth taking a risk on here."
The beauty of Mitchell's combo-guard status is that the Louisville product could work alongside Goran Dragic at first, complementing the slashing floor general with his defensive chops and ability to work away from the hoop as an off-ball cutter. But he could simultaneously serve as the heir apparent at the 1, waiting for Dragic to be moved elsewhere or decline gracefully into a backup role. There's significant malleability here, and it happens to be wrapped up in one of the draft's most athletic packages.
LaVar Ball Will Steal the Show
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LaVar Ball has already stolen the draft. Yesterday, the walking meme/father of presumptive No. 2 pick Lonzo Ball was videotaped roaming the streets of Manhattan agitating for his prodigiously talented son's professional prospects.
It's not as though Lonzo needed any more help in getting the attention of the NBA or its fans, yet his dad could not help but hop on the campaign trail to do some last-minute lobbying.
No moment in Thursday's draft is more primed for viral explosion than whatever occurs with Lonzo and LaVar. If the Lakers trade the No. 2 pick, the cameras will focus on LaVar's exasperated expression. The Great GIF Maker in the Sky will start raining memes of furrowed brows and dirty looks upon us. If the Lakers keep the pick and draft, say, Josh Jackson, Twitter might crash.
Even if the expected marriage of America's most polarizing helicopter parent and its most glamorous, if troubled, sports franchise does occur, whatever Vince McMahon-esque strut of satisfaction LaVar whips out will be endlessly analyzed. The Ball family was made for our social media age. No matter the outcome, they will own the evening.
