The One 2017 First-Round Opponent Each NBA Playoff Team Wants to Avoid
There's no such thing as a cakewalk in the NBA playoffs—that is, unless you're the Golden State Warriors and you get to feast on a sub-.500 squad right out of the gate.
Then again, even the Dubs might have trouble if Kevin Durant isn't right after a month (or more) in recovery.
Feed enough truth serum to any postseason-bound club, and you might hear about opponents they'd rather not face in a seven-game crucible. Contrasting styles sometimes create troubling mismatches in the Association's spring tournament. We won't know what those matchups look like for another month-and-a-half. There's also plenty of wiggle room for teams to shift the seeding one way or another, and for the No. 8 spot to change hands in either conference.
But if the 16 squads currently slated for playoff basketball had their druthers, they'd likely do their darndest to avoid these confrontations, based on regular-season results and the particulars of the players and schemes involved.
These are listed in order of seedings, starting with the East.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Milwaukee Bucks
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If LeBron James is the King of the East, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the conference's crown prince. Among all players in that half of the league, he's the only one to rank among the top 15 in points (23.4), free-throw attempts (7.4), rebounds (8.7), assists (5.5), steals (1.8) and blocks (1.9).
The Greek Freak has been even better than that when his Milwaukee Bucks have matched up with the Cleveland Cavaliers this season. He's averaged 24.0 points, 9.3 boards, 5.0 assists, 10.8 freebies, 2.3 steals and 1.8 blocks in four meetings with the defending champs.
Not that the Cavs should be shaking in their boots. They took three of four from their Central Division rivals during the regular season. The Bucks are no better position to challenge Cleveland now that Jabari Parker is done for the year, and have to leapfrog the Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat in the East's race for eighth place just to set up that showdown.
But if Milwaukee does make its move, it will have arguably the second-best player, in Antetokounmpo, on its side.
"For them to get into the playoffs and put a scare into a first-round opponent," former NBA coach and current ESPN commentator Jeff Van Gundy told Bleacher Report's Alex Raskin, "I think it's going to be driven by his greatness."
Boston Celtics: Chicago Bulls
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The Boston Celtics might not mind having another opportunity to watch Jimmy Butler up close—and woo him with their TD Garden crowd—before potentially returning to the negotiating table with the Chicago Bulls this summer.
But it's not Butler that Boston has to convince, since he'd be coming to Beantown via trade if he were to move at all during the offseason.
The bigger concern for the C's would be dealing with a Bulls squad that's manhandled them on the glass so far this season. Chicago has won two of three against Gang Green in 2016-17, winning the rebounding battle by an average margin of 16.3 boards across those three meetings.
Granted, that was before the Bulls dealt Taj Gibson—their leading rebounder and most physical force—to the Oklahoma City Thunder prior to the trade deadline. But Chicago isn't exactly short on bigs, with Robin Lopez still entrenched at center and Bobby Portis—who put up 19 points and eight rebounds off the bench against Boston prior to the All-Star break—settling in as a starter.
"I think Bobby has done a real nice job," Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said, per CSN Chicago's Vincent Goodwill. "He was a huge part of our win against Boston in our game right before the break. He just goes out and plays with so much energy. What I really like about him right now is he has no hesitation on his shot. He's stepping into his 3 with good rhythm."
And that's to say nothing of the 25.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists Butler has put up against his would-be future team. The C's should have the goods to outscore the offensively challenged Bulls in a seven-game series, but if this matchup becomes a grind, the Windy City's squad could have the upper hand.
Washington Wizards: Indiana Pacers
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Paul George wouldn't mind playing in the middle of a shooting-soaked lineup like the ones the Washington Wizards can field.
"You really don't see traditional center-power forward lineups. It's a couple teams that do it. They're really going away from that," George said, per CSN Mid-Atlantic's J. Michael Falgoust. "They want to speed the game up. They want more possessions. In order to keep up with those teams you have to have a lineup that can match up and compete against those kind of teams."
As it happens, the Indiana Pacers have held their own against the Wizards so far. Washington won three of four against the Indiana this season, though only the most recent meeting—a 111-98 D.C. victory in Indianapolis—was decided by double digits. The rest were knock-down, drag-out battles between these Eastern Conference foes.
It helps to have a crunch-time weapon like George in close contests like those. And when he's matched up with a young wing like Otto Porter Jr., the odds swing further in the Pacers' favor. George's scoring average against Washington (27.3 points per game) is his highest opposite any Eastern Conference squad.
Would the Wizards have any better luck with a bulkier forward like Markieff Morris defending George? Or a young, long-limbed wing like Kelly Oubre Jr.? Or the recently acquired Bojan Bogdanovic? Probably not.
That would put the onus on John Wall and Bradley Beal to do that much more to counteract George however they can. Those two are capable of being the two best players on a floor shared with Indy's All-Star, though George is just as liable to take over in a pinch.
Toronto Raptors: Indiana Pacers
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How does an Indiana Pacers squad hovering just above .500 become the bane of existence for not one, but two of the East's top five teams?
Again, it comes down to Paul George.
Last spring, George almost singlehandedly knocked the Toronto Raptors out of the playoffs during the first round. He torched Toronto for 27.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists while draining 41.9 percent of his threes and getting to the free-throw line 9.1 times a night. Had he and Indy prevailed, we might be talking about an entirely different Raptors coaching staff and team right now.
Granted, George wasn't the only Pacer who pushed Toronto. George Hill—who now plays for the Utah Jazz—set the nets ablaze to the tune of 56.1 percent shooting from the field and 48.1 percent from long range.
The bad news for the Raptors is, Jeff Teague, Hill's replacement at the point, has also posted solid numbers against Toronto over his career: 12.6 points, 5.9 assists, 45.5 percent from the field, 36.7 percent from beyond the arc. I
f Kyle Lowry is at all rusty upon returning from his wrist injury, Teague could have a field day against his opposite number and put Toronto's hopes of another deep playoff run in serious peril...again.
Atlanta Hawks: Toronto Raptors
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Once upon a time, the Atlanta Hawks might not have fretted a first-round showdown with the Toronto Raptors. For one, Toronto seemed to have a bede on the No. 2 seed in the East, well ahead of Atlanta.
And the Raptors, for all their guard play, had a gaping hole at power forward for Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard to exploit.
Now, Toronto is in position to finish fourth in the conference, just ahead of Atlanta. And as of the trade deadline, the Raptors have two players—Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker—who can mess with Millsap and Howard in some capacity.
Ibaka, in particular, could be a thorn in the Hawks' side. The Congolese big man is one of the better defenders at his position and brings the ability to open up driving lanes for Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan with his three-point shot (38.6 percent from deep this season).
Of course, that's all window dressing compared to what Lowry and DeRozan might do against the backcourt of Dennis Schroder and Thabo Sefolosha. The Raptors' All-Star duo combined for 49.6 points and 11.0 assists through the first two games between Toronto and Atlanta this season.
Indiana Pacers: Boston Celtics
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Paul George can't really control his own destiny until the summer of 2018, when the player option on his current contract comes due. But if the Indiana Pacers intend to build around him for the foreseeable future, they probably wouldn't want him getting too big a taste of what life is like for the Boston Celtics.
According to DYST Now's Mike Ortiz, the C's weren't willing to give up the Brooklyn Nets' 2017 first-rounder and three of four impactful perimeter players (Jaylen Brown, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley) for someone they weren't sure would want to stick around.
Perhaps George would be more keen to consider a long-term stay in Beantown if, say, Gang Green lays it thick on the Pacers in front of some boisterous crowds at the TD Garden. After all, that's one of the reported reasons Al Horford chose to sign with the C's this past summer, per the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach.
Those are considerations for the summer, but may be difficult to ignore should Indy and Boston come to blows this spring.
Chicago Bulls: Washington Wizards
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A strong defensive backcourt is a prerequisite to competing with the Washington Wizards. If you can't at least slow down John Wall and Bradley Beal, you might as well lay down your arms and beg for mercy.
Which is right where the Chicago Bulls might find themselves should they draw the Wizards as a first-round opponent.
Prior to the 2016-17 season, a perimeter trio of Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo looked no worse than workable opposite the Association's top backcourts. But Butler has been in a rut since the Bulls declined to move him at the trade deadline (16.0 points on 34.0 percent shooting). Wade may not have enough fuel left in his tank to hang with the young guns, and Rondo has long been in exile from Chicago's starting rotation.
Wall and Beal, meanwhile, have been playing out of their minds, and they're no longer alone in that regard among: Otto Porter Jr. is the league's sharpest volume three-point shooter, and Bojan Bogdanovic looks like a game changer for Washington after dropping 27 points at the Raptors' expense on Wednesday.
Chicago will see how well it might survive in the Wizards' world when the Bulls head to the nation's capital on March 17.
Detroit Pistons: Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Detroit Pistons have been down this road before. Last spring, they went nose to nose with the Cleveland Cavaliers and got swept out of the first round.
Yet, don't expect Detroit to fear Cleveland after that. Stanley Johnson certainly didn't—not if his public potshots at LeBron James were any indication. As Johnson wrote for The Players' Tribune:
"Now, do I regret what I said about Bron?
No. I meant every word I said.
I wasn’t going to just roll over because he was the best player in the league. At the time, I felt I was making the game hard for him. I never back down from competition and I always feel like players put their shoes on the same way I do.
But was my delivery wrong?
Yes. It was a rookie mistake.
"
Johnson has learned from his transgressions, just as the Pistons took away plenty from that surprisingly competitive series.
That doesn't mean, though, that Detroit is any better equipped to take down the defending champs during the postseason. If anything, regressions from Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond this season have left the Pistons even more vulnerable against a Cavs squad that's been loading up on talented castoffs left and right in recent weeks and should be much healthier by mid-April.
Golden State Warriors: New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans have a long climb ahead of them if they're going to crash the Western Conference playoff party. After dropping three straight to tip off DeMarcus Cousins' arrival, the Pelicans sat behind five other teams in pursuit of the West's No. 8 seed.
Not that the gap between New Orleans and the Denver Nuggets is so vast. (At February's end, the Pelicans were four games back of the Nuggets in the standings.)
New Orleans could make that up in a pinch once Cousins and Anthony Davis figure out how to play with each other. And of all the teams in the field, the Golden State Warriors might be least equipped to handle the hulk and bulk of that All-Star combination.
"Any time you’re in a playoff series and you face players of that talent, it’s not going to be an easy series,” a Western Conference executive told Bleacher Report, “just because those guys offensively are so great.”
The Warriors aren't shy on firepower themselves, even with Kevin Durant sidelined for at least the next four weeks. Between Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, Golden State has a more-than-formidable foundation with which to start its latest title run.
But as much as the Dubs can afford to move forward without KD, they would have to dig even deeper into their bench for reinforcements against Cousins and Davis. And with Alvin Gentry—who was an assistant under Steve Kerr during the 2014-15 season—at the controls in New Orleans, the Pelicans would have a unique opportunity to pick at the Warriors' weaknesses.
San Antonio Spurs: Memphis Grizzlies
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The team that the San Antonio Spurs swept out of the playoffs last season was the Memphis Grizzlies in name only.
Marc Gasol and Mike Conley Jr. played as many minutes combined as you and I on account of injury. Lance Stephenson tied Zach Randolph for the team lead in scoring (13.0 points per game). Jordan Farmar, who's now out of the league, started all four games at point guard. JaMychal Green, Memphis' starting power forward this season, played just over 18 minutes per game during that series.
These two teams have met just once so far in 2016-17, when the Grizzlies handled the Spurs, 89-74. Kawhi Leonard didn't play that night, so the result should be taken with as much salt as Memphis' shortfall last spring.
The outcomes of their next three meetings—scheduled over a three-week span between mid-March and early April—could be just as unreliable. By the time Memphis and San Antonio come to blows again, the Spurs might already be aggressively resting their guys.
On paper, though, the Grizzlies have the goods to give the Alamo City a run for its money: The size to give San Antonio's frontcourt fits, a lockdown wing defender (Tony Allen) to sic on Kawhi Leonard, a point guard (Conley) who can punish an aging Tony Parker, an elite defense and just enough three-point shooting to keep pace with the Spurs' slow-but-efficient offense.
Maybe the sting of last year's postseason lingers long enough to light a competitive fire under a team that's had success against San Antonio during previous playoff pushes. Nor would anyone mind seeing the sibling rivalry between the Gasols over a seven-game series.
Houston Rockets: Oklahoma City Thunder
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No team in today's NBA has a greater love affair from three-point range than the Houston Rockets.
And few are better at breaking their hearts beyond the arc than the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Among Western Conference clubs, only the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs have been better at depressing the Rockets' field goal percentage from deep than the Thunder. OKC doesn't have nearly the corps of shooters to compete on its own end, though the emergence of rookie Alex Abrines and the arrival of Doug McDermott have given head coach Billy Donovan two more weapons with whom to spread the floor.
Not that the Thunder need to light it up from deep. Their big-man tandem of Steven Adams (12.7 points, 8.0 rebounds vs. the Rockets this season) and Enes Kanter (11.0 points, 7.7 boards) has done its fair share of damage against Houston's thin front line.
The addition of Taj Gibson, a physical fiend in his own right, should only threaten the Rockets further.
But, like all things Thunder, the real danger of this matchup comes down to Russell Westbrook. He's the only player in the league who can rival James Harden's stat-sheet-stuffing prowess, with 30 triple-doubles to the Beard's 15.
On any given night, Westbrook can be (and often is) the best player on the floor. Andre Roberson's robust defense on Harden (29.1 percent shooting, 6.7 turnovers vs. OKC this season) could swing things further in Russ' favor—and against Houston's hopes of another deep playoff push.
Utah Jazz: Los Angeles Clippers
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The Los Angeles Clippers have beaten the Utah Jazz every which way this season.
They've done it to the Jazz in their house (88-72 on Feb. 13) without All-Star point guard Chris Paul. They've beaten Utah in L.A., and they've done it the Jazz's way, grinding out an 88-75 result at Staples Center in late October.
On paper, the Jazz should have a better shot to top the Clippers. Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors and Boris Diaw have size and skill to compete with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan up front. George Hill is a fine defensive floor general with the length and lateral quickness to frustrate Paul. L.A.'s lack of top-end talent on the wings should afford Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood a feast.
But neither of the Jazz's strengths has yet shown much ability to weaken the Clippers' core. Perhaps those will shift toward Salt Lake City when Utah and L.A. clash twice more in March.
Even if it does, the Clippers will hold at least one clear advantage come April: experience. As the Deseret News' Ryan McDonald detailed:
"The Clippers over the past five seasons have been in the upper half of the Western Conference, meaning they have plenty of playoff experience. Even with veterans Hill, Johnson and Boris Diaw, the Jazz don’t have much. No matter who it draws in the first round of the playoffs, Utah is going to have to grow up quickly, but that’ll be the case even more if it plays Los Angeles.
"
Los Angeles Clippers: Houston Rockets
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It was one thing for the Los Angeles Clippers to get run over by the Houston Rockets in late December, with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both on the shelf. It was another entirely for the Rockets to shoot the lights out at Staples Center and take what should be a bigger, stronger, more physical Clippers squad to task on the glass with all of its ducks in a row.
"I thought we abandoned our stuff. We didn't trust it enough," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told Bleacher Report after Wednesday's 122-103 defeat. "We went into iso, holding the ball, ball on one side. They just stuck with their movement and kept doing it. That's what we thought we were and that's who they were."
How L.A. is still in the midst of an identity crisis—in its fourth season with Griffin, Paul, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick in its core—remains a mystery that nobody seems to solve, and that could be the Clippers' downfall come playoff time. They seem to get shook far too easily when faced with adversity, and nothing will put a team in such a ditch quite like the three-point barrages that the Rockets are so capable of putting together.
Dropping to No. 6 in the West may be the best way for the Clippers to avoid the dreaded Golden State Warriors for as long as possible, but they won't see them at all—not in the second round and certainly not in the conference finals—if they first run into the Rockets, who came back from a 3-1 lead against L.A. two years ago.
Oklahoma City Thunder: San Antonio Spurs
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Last spring, the San Antonio Spurs had no answer for the Oklahoma City Thunder's size, strength and athleticism during a six-game second-round defeat.
By and large, OKC still owns those advantages against San Antonio—except the Thunder will no longer aggravate the Alamo City with a certain 7-foot scoring wing.
Russell Westbrook can still make hay against the Spurs' corps of point guards, led by the aging Tony Parker. During their lone meeting so far this season, Westbrook dropped 27 points, 14 assists and six rebounds on San Antonio, albeit with six turnovers.
That was long before Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott came to OKC, and before Alex Abrines emerged as a legitimate floor stretcher for the Thunder.
Still, OKC will have its issues against San Antonio without a real answer for Kawhi Leonard. Nor can the Thunder expect rookie Domantas Sabonis to stop LaMarcus Aldridge, who torched him and the team's other forwards for 25 points on 15 shots in late January.
For OKC to compete with San Antonio over seven games, Westbrook might have to get a triple-double every night. Even then, the Thunder's 20th-ranked offense figures to have a tough time scrounging up enough points against the Spurs' NBA-best defense to force a long series across the Red River.
Memphis Grizzlies: Utah Jazz
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A series between Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz would be chock-full of Z's, and not just in their team names. Those two teams check in 27th and 28th, respectively, for points per game and among the bottom three in pace.
The Grizzlies own a clear edge in experience between the two: Memphis is on pace for a franchise-record seventh straight playoff appearance, while Utah is about to bust a four-year postseason drought—tied for its longest since the team moved from New Orleans to Salt Lake City in 1979.
Both squads are spectacular defensively, though the Jazz have been better thanks to Rudy Gobert's Defensive Player of the Year campaign in the middle.
And while Memphis doesn't have a true bonafide scorer—Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph are complete players, but not offensive juggernauts—Utah can turn to Gordon Hayward and his 22.5 points per game.
Granted, the Grizzlies can gobble him up with Tony Allen, though that would leave a perpetually hobbled Chandler Parsons to handle the likes of Rodney Hood and Alec Burks. Those swingmen are but two parts of a young, hungry talent base that's ready to make a name for itself by pushing Memphis into the West's history books for good.
Denver Nuggets: Golden State Warriors
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The Golden State Warriors would be a bad matchup for anyone in any round, let alone for the Denver Nuggets right out of the gate. Denver dropped its first two meetings with the two-time defending Western Conference champs this season before blasting Golden State in mid-February, (sans Klay Thompson and Zaza Pachulia).
That game could offer a blueprint of sorts for attacking the Warriors without Kevin Durant. The All-Star forward could miss the rest of the regular season while recovering from a bone bruise and a knee sprain. That night, Denver dropped an NBA-record-tying 24 three-pointers while holding Golden State to 8-of-24 from deep.
The Nuggets may be able to replicate their defensive performance beyond the arc once or twice, IF Durant is either rusty or not yet ready to play.
On the other hand, it's beyond unrealistic to expect Denver to pop off from long range like that again and again, though the Nuggets have quietly crept into the NBA's top 10 in three-point attempts, makes and percentage. Outside of a sustained three-point explosion, Nikola Jokic and company could be toast from the get-go against a Warriors team hell-bent on avenging last year's Finals heartbreak on the back of an all-timer roster.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats and salary information via NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
