Chicago Bulls Complete 2016-17 Season Preview
It was an early-season game between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons, a week before Christmas. The Bulls were still hoping to make a deep playoff run; the Pistons would be satisfied with a run at the playoffs. The game was tight.
Reggie Jackson hit Andre Drummond for a shot at the rim with 19 seconds left to go and tied it up. It was Derrick Rose time, the sort of thing Bulls fans had seen before and were expecting to see again.
Rose was going to hit the game-winner.
But it didn’t happen.
Nor, as he’d done in the past, did he take over in the first OT, or the second or third or even fourth. He tallied 10 points on 12 shots and turned the ball over twice. The Bulls lost the game, and as things turned out, that was the difference between the Pistons getting the No. 8 seed over Chicago when the season ended.
In both a metaphorical and literal sense, it was the day the Rose Era died.
Biggest Offseason Move
The Bulls signed two big names—specifically Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade—during the offseason, but they weren’t the biggest move. That was trading away Derrick Rose.
Yes, the Bulls were trading away the former MVP to the New York Knicks. Every season for the last half decade had revolved around him. Whether it was his winning the MVP, his injury, his recovery or how he was getting along with Jimmy Butler, Rose dominated the headlines.
In exchange for Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-round pick, the Bovines received Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant and Jose Calderon (who they later shipped to the Los Angeles Lakers along with two more second-round picks) to create the cap room to sign Wade. The acquisition of Lopez also signaled Chicago wasn’t keeping Joakim Noah—the Bulls' heart and soul during the Rose Era.
The signing of Rondo and Wade is confusing because they didn’t mesh with the future based on age, style or fit. Rather than embark on a new era, the front office tandem of Gar Forman and John Paxson settled on a 41-win holding pattern. Now no one seems to know where the Bulls are going.
One thing is clear, though. It’s not where they’ve been.
Rotation Breakdown
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| Rajon Rondo | Dwyane Wade | Jimmy Butler | Nikola Mirotic | Robin Lopez |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | Tony Snell | Doug McDermott | Taj Gibson | Cristiano Felicio |
| Isaiah Canaan | Paul Zipser | Denzel Valentine | Bobby Portis |
The top of the rotation is set. Rondo, Wade, Butler and Lopez are locked in as the 1, 2, 3 and 5, respectively. However, the starting power forward spot is up for grabs, with Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis each getting a crack during one of the three Bulls preseason games.
Mirotic is the most likely to win the job, as he’s the only one with a consistent three-point shot. With the Bulls' three perimeter stars not noted for their sharp shooting, it’s imperative there’s at least one player on the court who can drain a trey.
The pecking order for the bench, though, is harder to determine, in large part because the players are so interwoven. For example, rookie Denzel Valentine might get time running the team as a point forward. When he’s doing that, Isaiah Canaan, the best shooter of the Bulls guards, fits best.
However, Canaan isn’t a noted distributor, so when Valentine’s not guiding the second unit, Spencer Dinwiddie is the more likely of the other two backup point guards to get run. Meanwhile, Grant, who has the highest ceiling, is better served with regular minutes for the new D-League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls.
Tony Snell can play both wings. The Bulls' other rookie, Paul Zipser, can play anywhere from the 2 to the 4. Valentine can man the 1,2 or 3. Doug McDermott will spend time at both forwards spots. Portis and Gibson can both play the 4 and the 5.
Much of how the rotation will shake out depends on which kids get spots. That’s probably not going to be ironed out by Thanksgiving, much less when the season starts.
Reasons for Confidence
Almost every Bulls-related conversation pivots on the lack of three-point shooting. None of the “three blind mice” are going to become the new rendition of the Splash Brothers.
What is overstated, though, is the importance of it.
Yes, you can win games without making a bunch of threes, as illustrated by the chart below (hover over the name for the details). The Warriors won the most games and had the highest winning percentage, but the Spurs, who were second, only finished ahead of five other teams.
The Spurs were a great defensive squad, and you can argue that’s why they won (because it’s true). But the Toronto Raptors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers weren’t lighting the world on fire from deep either.
That line going across is a trend line, and its 0.15 R-Squared value (for those who don’t know) means there’s not that strong of a correlation between winning and making threes. So shooting is a concern; it’s just not a caustic one.
What the Bulls do have is three noteworthy playmakers who are happy to share the ball. Head coach Fred Hoiberg discussed that with CSN Chicago’s Vincent Goodwill:
"The biggest thing is we have multiple playmakers now, we have guys who can get in and break down the defense. That’s the most important thing to have on an NBA roster is multiple ballhandlers, multiple playmakers. Bigs who are gonna set screens and put pressure on the rim.
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According to NBA.com, through three preseason games, Rondo is averaging 9.4 dimes per 36 minutes, Wade is at 7.1 and Butler 6.6. Having three willing distributors who can create is a rarity.
Most of the envisioning of the three-point clanking disaster involves the trio on the court at the same time. But splitting them up among the Bulls’ array of bench shooters and scorers (Valentine, Canaan, Snell, McDermott, Mirotic, Portis and maybe even Zipser) gives the Bulls a way to not only develop their young players but to send attacks in waves.
There are problems with that, which we’ll discuss next. But at least it could be entertaining.
Reasons for Concern
The scenario described above would be a lot of fun—for both teams. The Bulls defense is almost certain to be dreadful this year.
Sure, there’s a magical, alternate-world scenario where Rondo rediscovers caring about D, and Wade reaches further back into the fountain of youth. But this group is woefully short on plus stoppers.
According to ESPN, Wade’s defensive real plus-minus last year was -1.78, which was 67th out of 92 shooting guards. Robin Lopez’s was plus-.97, 41st out of 63 centers. Rondo’s was minus-0.59, 29th of 77 point guards. That doesn’t signal a lot of defensive help for a team lacking in that department last year, particularly down the stretch, where they were 22nd with a 108.0 defensive rating after the All-Star break.
Snell and Gibson have value among the reserves, but McDermott is still not athletic enough. Neither is Valentine. Portis was the fourth-worst power forward with a minus-2.25 DRPM. The wing shortage in an era where you need wing defense is going to be hard to compensate for.
In sum, the Bulls don’t even have the talent to be an average defensive team. So their only hope of winning is to just try to outscore the other guys.
Player to Watch
The maddest I ever got watching a game was the infamous moment Rondo threw Kirk Hinrich into the scorer’s table, so it’s not with great glee that I write this.
He can help the Bulls be their very best, or he can effectively destroy them.
Last year Hoiberg lacked an advocate on the court, a bridge from his coaching office to the locker room. And while Rondo should be the weirdest person to pull that off, he and Hoiberg are clicking, and it’s having a positive impact.
The coach told ESPN’s Nick Friedell:
"The biggest thing that I've been most impressed with with Rajon is, the minute he stepped on this floor, when he got back here in August, is he pulled everybody together. His voice -- he's got the best voice on the team.
When you have your point guard out there that can get you into something and talk the way he does, that sets the tone for everybody. If you got a guy not only offensively getting you into something, but defensively making sure guys are pointing and talking and getting back and getting matched up in transition, that's where it starts. He's been here. He's been great. He's a guy that [you] can watch film with -- in September before we got rolling here in camp. He's been great, and today he got us off to a great start.
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If he can keep that going, the Bulls will top out their expectations. But if he goes off the rails, as he’s done in the past, this season could end like Thelma and Louise.
Predictions
The Bulls will be among the also-rans for most of the season, fighting for a playoff spot along with a half-dozen teams in the East. Their contention will have as much to do with the overall mediocrity of the conference as their own quality.
Fans should pay more attention to player development rather than Chicago’s placement in the standings. Remember, it’s a holding pattern.
McDermott and Mirotic will need to prove their mettle. Snell will need to prove he’s worth keeping around at all. And the crop of kids such as Cristiano Felicio, Portis, Valentine, Grant and Zipser should hopefully get plenty of minutes with the mother ship, the D-League affiliate or both.
Don't be surprised by a major midseason trade, which would go contrary to what the Bulls normally do. But if they see something that can work with the long-term rebuilding process, they’ll probably jump on it.
They’ll eke out a playoff berth and get ousted in the first round. But no one will care.
Final Record: 41-41
Division Standing: Third in Central Division
Playoff Berth: Yes
B/R League-wide Power Rankings Prediction: 19th
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