NBA Preseason 2016: The Biggest Storyline for All 30 Teams
The preseason is already upon us, which means practices are underway and games (real games!) between NBA teams aren't far off.
It also means summer is over, and you've probably failed to finish whatever offseason projects you had planned.
It's fine; you're not alone.
The resumption of NBA action is a reminder that we need to start zeroing in on key angles and the most compelling stories shaping up to dominate the 2016-17 season. There are rotation battles to sort out, identities to define and, more than anything, expectations that need tempering.
Think of this as a snapshot of each club's current condition and a primer on what qualities or questions will define the upcoming campaigns.
Atlanta Hawks: Is Change Always Good?
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The Atlanta Hawks are a pit crew who knew the top speed of their car was fast but not fast enough to win the race. So they popped the hood, got in there and banged around aggressively with some hammers and wrenches and whatever else...scissors, maybe?
I don't know much about auto repair.
Anyway, maybe that top speed is higher now. Or maybe we're in for a wreck. The point is that the Hawks changed things up, forgoing another good-not-great season with Al Horford and Jeff Teague for a wider spectrum of options via Dwight Howard and Dennis Schroder.
This franchise had good reasons for moving on from two of its mainstays: Horford commanded a max deal, and it made sense to avoid lavishing long-term cash on a 30-year-old center. Teague would have been a free agent after this season, and getting younger and cheaper with Schroder was a defensible move.
More generally, though, the Hawks seemed to understand the status quo wasn't good enough. After winning 60 games in 2014-15, they brought back the same core (minus DeMarre Carroll, who broke down physically in his first year with the Toronto Raptors) and took a significant step backward, winning 48. A win total like that would constitute major success for most, but Atlanta sensed a need for more dynamic playmaking and a conventionally overpowering interior presence.
We'll know how the changes work out when the race starts.
Boston Celtics: Conference Finals or Bust
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"I have not accepted that yet," Boston Celtics president Danny Ainge told reporters when asked if a championship was beyond the reach of his team. "I have not accepted that."
Eventually, Ainge and the Boston Celtics will have to accept that.
The goal of this season is postponing that acceptance for as long as possible—at least until the Eastern Conference Finals. Getting to that point will constitute a success, even if Ainge has designs on something bigger.
Adding Al Horford to a roster that was already one of the East's best gives Boston the star power it lacked, and organic growth from a mostly young roster will also help. Put simply, the Celtics look like the second-best team in the conference.
Horford and the returning core—Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder—must mesh. If they can, the Celtics should deliver a No. 2 seed and a deep playoff run.
If the Cleveland Cavaliers falter or suffer a significant injury, the calculus changes, and Boston could end up in the Finals.
Brooklyn Nets: How Good Is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson?
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Some of these get a little high-minded. We focus on the overarching ideas that will shape a team's identity or the potential sticking points that'll make the difference between success and failure.
The Brooklyn Nets are simpler.
I mean, when the options are zeroing in on the development of an intriguing up-and-comer or searching for the path Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez will travel to reach 31 meaningless wins, it's not really a choice, is it?
The only thing that matters is how much better Rondae Hollis-Jefferson gets. So follow his box scores, analyze his SportVU numbers and dive into film study. His three-point mechanics and success at attacking closeouts matter more than any broader franchise concerns.
He's the only promising piece Brooklyn has, and he's young enough (21) to be a part of the core that comes out the other side of this purgatory period.
The Nets aren't built to win in the short term, and their long-range prospects are compromised by draft-pick indebtedness. Tanking won't help. Neither will winning, really.
So why not devote all resources to developing a second-year prospect described thus by Jonathan Tjarks of The Ringer: "He is longer than most big men and faster than most guards. The Nets' defensive rating was 8.2 points lower when he was on the floor (101.4) than when he was off (109.8), by far the best mark on the team, and they are going to give him every chance to translate that production into a bigger role next season."
Charlotte Hornets: The MKG Impact
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Under normal circumstances, we'd be focusing on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's ongoing development as a key for the Charlotte Hornets. But because the fifth-year forward has struggled with health concerns lately, the issue is more rudimentary.
He just needs to put together a full season.
The Hornets, who lost Courtney Lee, Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson over the summer in free agency, are optimistic about MKG's health...and there's never been any question about his impact.
"When we started making our big move from around 12th (in the East) to (a four-way tie for) the third spot, it was early February. That’s when MKG came back. That was no coincidence," Nicolas Batum told Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer.
Batum is right: Even though his contributions lasted just seven games last season, Kidd-Gilchrist made a difference. MKG has always mattered for the Hornets; he's key to enabling an ultra-aggressive switching defense, and his energy changes games by itself.
If he can stay healthy, he could more than offset the free-agency losses. And if Charlotte winds up in the East's top four, he'll be the reason why.
Chicago Bulls: Mismatched Roster, Unproven Coach
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How's this going to work?
The dual components of that question are roster construction and coaching.
The Bulls added Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade to a personnel group that was supposed to belong to Jimmy Butler. Both newbies need the rock, and Rondo's track record of combustibility, zero defense and singular ball dominance seems ill-fitting alongside a rising alpha like Butler.
The mix is odd, to say the least.
The guy charged with managing it, head coach Fred Hoiberg, didn't wow anyone in his debut last year. If the Bulls had provided him with talent suited to his open, uptempo offense, there would still be uncertainty about his chops at the NBA level. His rookie season was that shaky.
But with the Bulls' obscene lack of backcourt shooting and Rondo's halting, grind-it-down pace preference, it's as if Chicago's front office is deliberately setting its coach up to fail. So how will this team overcome its issues?
Here's K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: "Despite the roster overhaul flying in the face of the league's emphasis on shooting and floor spacing, management and coaches are optimistic proud veterans such as Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo will be out for something to prove and will coalesce with a young core ready to take the next step."
So...despite conspicuously mismatched parts and a coach not used to employing them, the Bulls will make this work because a couple of vets have something to prove? Got it.
Cleveland Cavaliers: How Much More Can Kyrie Carry?
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We're not headed for royal succession in Cleveland.
Kyrie Irving—NBA Finals arrival and all—will never be what LeBron James is. Not this year, not next year and not at some undetermined point in the future when James is no longer king of the Cavs.
But the extent to which Irving is ready to ease James' burden this year and, on a related note, the extent to which James needs someone to consistently give him breaks, will be the angles to watch.
Irving wasn't his best in 2015-16, as his stats fell across the board during an injury-shortened 53-game campaign. He showed up in the Finals when it mattered, though, and it's fair to say that despite his diminished statistical production, his star has never been brighter.
With James entering his 14th season and burdened by the mileage of six straight Finals appearances, Irving's leadership and fitness for full top-dog status will be more important than ever. LeBron will need rest—for games or even weeks at a time—if he's to be healthy for yet another protracted postseason run.
That means Irving must shoulder larger loads and, critically, do it consistently. He can't shoot 32.1 percent from deep again; he can't treat defense like it's optional; he can't make a negligible on-court impact during the regular season. (Cleveland posted a net rating of plus-5.7 with him on and plus-5.9 with him off the floor last year.)
It's possible LeBron's decline won't accelerate, but no king sits on the throne forever. Irving is key to prolonging James' reign.
Dallas Mavericks: Are the New Guys Enough?
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Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut symbolize another summer of Dallas accepting fallback options after missing top targets, but they may also represent the last decent chance to make Dirk Nowitzki's twilight matter.
Both new additions should help the Dallas Mavericks defense, though it's hard to see how Barnes will play much power forward, which is where his defensive abilities are most helpful. Bogut is an upgrade over Zaza Pachulia, but he comes with health concerns and a virtual allergy to shooting the ball.
If those two can duplicate their performances from last season, the Mavs could again push their win total into the mid-40s and secure a playoff seed.
But if Bogut slips or Barnes proves overwhelmed by the increased demands attached to his max salary, it's difficult to imagine how Dallas stays relevant.
For an organization as stable and well-run as the Mavericks, it's a little strange for so much to be riding on a pair of middling acquisitions. Dallas has generally made the most of its roster, though, so there's still hope Bogut and Barnes will prop Nowitzki's window open a little longer.
Denver Nuggets: Are the Kids All Right?
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The Denver Nuggets would probably prefer to win games this year, but the larger organizational concern is the growth of an exceptionally young roster.
Lottery pick Jamal Murray is 19, Emmanuel Mudiay is 20, and Nikola Jokic is just 21. Toss in Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris (both 22), and a chunk of the rotation needs permission slips to go on road trips.
The goal this season is development, though Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried are established veterans (though not a single one of them is over 30 yet), and they'll provide guidance for their young counterparts. Jokic must get stronger. Mudiay has to hit outside shots. Nurkic needs to prove he can stay healthy and finish on offense.
The Nuggets have a lot of work to do here.
Fortunately, Denver's kids have already shown signs they can play. Despite losing Chandler and Gallinari for large portions of the 2015-16 season, the Nuggets managed to win 33 games. If Mudiay and Jokic take steps forward, the growth process could get a valuable boost from something unexpected: meaningful games all the way through March.
Detroit Pistons: KCP's 3-and-D Development
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The macro angle here is the same as it is for a lot of teams in the Detroit Pistons' position: We'll be watching to see if they show signs of taking a big step forward.
After making the postseason a year ago, it's realistic to imagine 50 wins and a top-four seed in the East if things go right. Andre Drummond rounding out his offensive game (and maybe making some free throws) could go a long way toward helping Detroit reach its potential, but it feels like the Pistons center is approaching "he is what he is" territory.
So maybe we should keep eyes on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit's 23-year-old shooting guard who is at least halfway to being one of the NBA's best three-and-D wings.
KCP has the defense part down. He's already one of the top perimeter stoppers in the league—good enough to check both backcourt positions. You won't find a better reel of dogged on-ball defense than the one he put together against Stephen Curry last November.
A career 32.7 percent shooter from deep, Caldwell-Pope saw his long-range accuracy dip to a personal worst 30.9 percent last season—seriously disappointing after a 34.5 percent effort in 2014-15. His form is far from broken, and if the Drummond-Reggie Jackson pick-and-roll continues to lure help defenders into the lane, KCP will keep seeing good looks.
If he becomes a real threat as a standstill sniper—say, 38 percent—Detroit's offensive ceiling would rise considerably.
Golden State Warriors: Greatness-Induced Anxiety
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A strange thing happened to the Golden State Warriors about halfway through the 2015-16 season. Or, actually, it happened to their home crowds.
As highly entertaining, destined-for-history dominance became an expectation, anxiety crept in alongside the happy delirium. The stakes rose with every game, and as the Warriors kept winning and zeroing in on immortality (via 73 wins or a unanimous MVP or, theoretically, a second straight title), things got really tense whenever vulnerabilities surfaced.
You could sense it even more strongly in the playoffs. Whenever the Warriors struggled, the crowd got tight. The feeling didn't necessarily extend to the players, but fans grew almost palpably nervous because (perhaps subconsciously) they understood losing with such a stacked deck and so much on the line would result in disappointment and embarrassment.
When winning seems inevitable for so long, reminders that it isn't are jarring.
Now imagine the level that anxiety will reach as Kevin Durant joins up to form a team with never-before-seen talent. Broadly, that will be the story of the Warriors this year: How will they handle a situation in which success is almost unprecedentedly expected?
How do they manage the pressure that comes with being an all-time superteam?
How will they (and, to a similar extent, their fans) handle the moments of vulnerability that conjure up memories of last season's failure? It's difficult to imagine how the Warriors will do anything but obliterate the league. Chances are they'll win the championship.
But there will be moments when success seems less certain. Those will be the ones to watch.
Houston Rockets: Strength Masking Weakness
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Directed by head coach Mike D'Antoni and produced by James Harden, the Houston Rockets offense is going to be one of the league's best.
Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, both good scorers and reliable shooters, joined up. And Dwight Howard isn't around to clog the lane or demand post touches anymore.
It already sounds beautiful, per D'Antoni's comments to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle: "Spread the floor. Quick, but don't hurry. Take the first, best shot. That can be at any time. If it happens in the first seven (seconds), great. It's (about) spacing, ball movement, lot of pick-and-rolls, create opportunities. If it happens in the first 10 seconds great, but we can take the whole shot clock."
How could it not look and work well?
This commitment Houston is making to dominating one end of the floor is admirable, but it raises an obvious question: Will the Rockets score enough to offset what could be one of the NBA's shoddier defensive units?
Embracing a strength rather than bolstering a weakness is an interesting team-building conundrum, and the Rockets have opted for the former in hopes it will put a charge back into a team that disappointed a year ago.
Houston is preparing for nightly shootouts; it'll be fascinating to see if it wins enough of them to be relevant in the West playoff picture.
Indiana Pacers: What's the Pacers' Pace?
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Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird wants his team to score more—105 or 106 points per game, according to his comments on The Dan Patrick Show.
Adding Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young should help in that endeavor, but the biggest hindrance might be new head coach Nate McMillan.
Here's Matt Moore of CBSSports.com about that: "Between 2008 and 2011, the Blazers under Nate McMillan finished 30th in pace (possessions per game, a standard stat used to describe the pace of play) three out of four seasons. In the other season they finished 29th. The entire offensive model of Portland under McMillan was 'slow and efficient.' The offense was great. It was just slow."
McMillan's offenses have been good but never big on points per game because they've always plodded. If Bird had only said he wanted his team to score effectively, the McMillan move wouldn't have seemed so odd.
But by laying out a preference for volume (not efficiency), Bird is either sending a signal to McMillan to change or suggesting he's confident the change has already occurred.
McMillan has been around the league for a long time, and coaching styles tend to calcify. It'll be interesting to see if he can implement the tactics Bird wants...because he's never really done it before.
Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Show, Season 7
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What kind of player will Blake Griffin be this season?
From the Los Angeles Clippers' perspective, the first answer to that question is easy: a healthy one. A quad injury cost him 47 games in 2015-16.
Beyond that, it might not matter if he's the high flyer of years past or the guy whose improved jumper and blossoming facilitation offset his waning bounce last season.
Dan Woike of the Orange County Register wrote:
"Lost amid the Kia vaulting, hand breaking, joke telling and weird postseason exits, Griffin’s been a dynamic NBA player with an ever-growing arsenal. He recorded back-to-back triple-doubles during the 2015 playoffs, including one against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7. He’s become more comfortable with his jump shot, stretching his range to just inside the three-point arc. He’s gone from an unwilling participant at the free-throw line to a competent shooter from the stripe.
"
The Clips can deal with questions of his role (should Griffin be a de facto point guard on the second unit as his passing keeps developing?) whenever they get around to them.
First, though, Griffin has to look healthy in training camp. Because if he's fit, L.A. occupies its typical spot just below the top-end contenders—pushing up toward 60 wins and hoping one of the elite title threats encounters bad injury luck.
That's not a bad place to be, but the Clips only get to be there if Griffin looks good.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Big Excuses Are Gone
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Totally legitimate excuses are still excuses.
Former head coach Byron Scott emotionally belittled his young players and didn't put them in positions to succeed on the court. Kobe Bryant's farewell festivities inverted the Los Angeles Lakers' priorities: No. 24 first, success and growth second.
"Everything I went through was new," D'Angelo Russell said of his rookie season, per Tania Ganguli of the Los Angeles Times. "There was no guidance from the people that were supposed to give me the guidance."
Having Scott and Bryant gone is a positive. Yet at the same time, Russell and the Lakers are now short on asterisks for their inevitable struggles this season.
Sure, they can rely on the general caveats of youth and a new coaching regime led by Luke Walton. But there will be a new sort of exposure now. Russell and his teammates won't get the passes they got last year—the ones that come with playing in a dysfunctional environment.
Now, if they play poorly or don't develop, it'll be on them. And while we should expect and forgive some hiccups for a team this young, we don't know how they'll deal with this new sense of personal accountability. How Russell and his teammates handle their liberation will say a lot about what we should expect from them as they grow.
Memphis Grizzlies: The Nobility of Stubbornness
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The Memphis Grizzlies will finish this thing on their terms. Eventually.
Unconcerned by the prevalence of spacing, three-point shooting and downsized lineups for as long as the current core has been together, the Grizz enter yet another season depending on size, grimy defense and veteran chemistry.
Mostly, Memphis' anachronistic approach still works. It made the playoffs last year because an old-school style piled up enough early wins to survive even after Marc Gasol's season ended with a broken foot.
Mike Conley is back on a massive deal, rejoining Gasol, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph for yet another run. So: status quo. Chandler Parsons and his repeatedly rebuilt knees have arrived from the Mavericks, bringing with them the prospects of a little more offensive dynamism but not nearly enough.
The Grizzlies will succeed or fail on the strength of their, um, strength. They'll pound it down low, run a mostly inefficient offense through Gasol at the high post and defend collectively. This has worked for years, yielding six consecutive postseason berths.
The angle to follow in 2016-17 is the same as it's been for a long time: Can Memphis' outdated, stubborn style hold up one more time?
Miami Heat: End of an Era
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Eras are ending left and right these days, with Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett stepping away all at once. Chris Bosh's health-induced separation from the Miami Heat (and Wade's departure) may not quite rise to the level of three all-time greats retiring at the same time, but it's still a big deal.
The Heat are moving on.
"Now we're on to rebuilding, I mean really rebuilding," president Pat Riley said, per Ethan Skolnick of CBSSports.com.
The team belongs to Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson now—with Goran Dragic standing in as the veteran steward. A strange season awaits, but the story of the Heat should be more exciting for its unpredictability.
And if precedent holds, it won't be long until the Riley regime hauls in a free-agent star to vault the organization out of the rebuilding phase ahead of schedule.
In the meantime, Miami will struggle to make the postseason but should benefit from thrusting its younger players into leadership roles.
Milwaukee Bucks: Full-Season Freak Show
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Khris Middleton's torn hamstring makes finding a replacement for the team's most important wing shooter a major issue for the Milwaukee Bucks, but the most intriguing aspect remains Giannis Antetokounmpo, point guard.
Essentially, we're about to find out if this is a real thing—if it's feasible to operate with a 6'11", athletically supercharged arachnid-humanoid hybrid as the full-time starting point guard.
Indications from last year are hard to decipher.
On the one hand, Antetokounmpo's production spiked when he got the full-time gig after the All-Star break, and the Bucks were actually in positive net rating territory with him on the floor, per NBA.com. That's quite a feat for a 33-win team, and the minus-5.9 that Milwaukee posted after the break when Antetokounmpo sat suggests he made a real difference at the point.
Opponents have now had a full season to think about countermeasures, though, and we should expect them to test Antetokounmpo's suspect shooting and push him on the defensive end. Of course, based on the meteoric rise of the last three seasons, we should also expect Antetokounmpo to improve.
Milwaukee sure does, based on the $100 million extension it gave him.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Surrendering to Wild Enthusiasm
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You have two choices here: Either focus on Tom Thibodeau's impact on a young roster and how that affects the Minnesota Timberwolves' long-shot playoff chances...or have a joy conniption thinking about how good Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be.
Option two, right? Easy.
As much as Thibodeau's influence will matter, Towns making the leap toward superstardom is the more exciting angle to watch in Minnesota. The fifth-ever unanimous Rookie of the Year comes into his second season without a ceiling.
Forty percent from three? Maybe.
Defensive Player of the Year? Why not?
Everything is on the table for Towns, whose only weakness last season was inexperience.
Bleacher Report's Joel Cordes explained how significant Towns' assured excellence is for a Wolves team on the rise: "When your team's star is smart, coachable and seemingly mature beyond his years, your biggest variable is already a certainty. All you need are the right supporting pieces."
Minnesota may have those supporting pieces in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn. But it definitely has the foundation in Towns.
Keep an eye on that guy—he might amount to something.
New Orleans Pelicans: The Anthony Davis Do-Over
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Will this be the year we see Anthony Davis become what he's supposed to? The year he builds on the greatest age-21 campaign in league history with a statistically obscene, MVP-caliber demolition of the NBA?
In other words: Will this be the year we thought we were getting in 2015-16?
AD is healthy after losing 21 games to knee and shoulder injuries, and he's still just 23. If his body is fit, there's good reason to expect the resumption of his rise.
There's been some turnover, as Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson are gone, as well as some awful luck: Jrue Holiday's playing status is up in the air as he tends to his ailing wife. But so long as Davis is unfettered by injury, we should be able to refresh our search for the necessary hyperbolic descriptions of his game.
Yahoo Sports' Dan Devine is already working on it: "Anthony Davis is 1988 Bomb Squad production run through an Ibanez Tube Screamer played on 100-story speakers loud enough to tear down the walls of Jericho."
How much descriptive brain-wracking will Davis' return to dominance force among writers?
A lot, hopefully.
New York Knicks: Keeping It Simple
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Practically speaking, the key storyline for the New York Knicks isn't all that different from the Timberwolves'. Throw out all the complications and uncertainty of a revamped roster. Move past worries about Derrick Rose's health, productivity and legal issues. Forget Joakim Noah's apparent nosedive, and ignore questions about the remaining length of Carmelo Anthony's prime.
Those are real issues—no doubt about it. But the only thing that matters for the Knicks is Kristaps Porzingis' development. Yep, just like Towns with the Wolves.
Everything about the Knicks should be viewed through the Porzingis prism.
Does Noah's presence mean KP won't see as much time at center? If so, that's bad.
Can Anthony and Rose defer not just to each other but to the 7'3" franchise cornerstone, helping him develop consistency and confidence as a lead option? If so, that's good.
You can get bogged down in the questions (and, admittedly, intriguing potential) of the Knicks, but everything is simple if you keep priorities in order: Whatever happens this year or next hardly matters...except for the effect it has on Porzingis, who'll be around for a long time.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Offensive Survival Post-KD
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Keep something in mind when the Oklahoma City Thunder become a defense-first outfit in 2016-17: Everything is relative.
When OKC's defensive rating ranks higher than its offensive rating this year, it won't be because the rangy, undersized group that stifled the Warriors during the Western Conference Finals reached another level.
It'll be because the offense falls off a cliff.
Durant is the most versatile scorer alive; his exit filed down OKC's fangs. But losing Serge Ibaka, one of the best spacing bigs in the game, might render the Thunder entirely toothless.
Without KD and Ibaka pulling defenders out of the lane, Russell Westbrook and his pick-and-roll partners won't have any room to operate. Opponents will crash into the paint, inviting kick-outs to (gulp) Victor Oladipo and (double gulp!) Andre Roberson while daring Westbrook to fling up mid-rangers off the dribble.
That's a recipe for a bottom-10 offense.
The Thunder have the athletes to get stops, and Steven Adams may be ready to assume legitimate defensive-anchor status. Those things will have to happen to offset the inevitable scoring decline.
Orlando Magic: The Tricky Part
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A new head coach (Frank Vogel) and major roster turnover (just six players return from last year's roster) make the Orlando Magic unstable for a team that has theoretically been on a slow rebuild for the past few seasons.
That opens up any number of possible key storylines: chemistry, youth development, new additions meshing and make-or-break seasons for talents who must prove they're part of the future. But instead of canvassing the full spectrum, we'll narrow the focus to the messy mix of frontcourt bodies that Vogel must juggle.
Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo are newly aboard, and those two would constitute an excellent front line on their own. Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon were already on the roster, though, which means the minute distribution could be difficult. Depth up front is always a good thing, and if the Magic lose one of their four key bigs to injury, they'll be glad to have contingency plans.
Unfortunately, an injury may be the only way Gordon sees significant time at power forward, which is a shame because that's the position that makes the best use of his athleticism.
Vogel could get bold and give major playing time to Gordon-Ibaka duos—probably Orlando's best big-man tandem—but he might have a hard time selling that decision to a management group that extended Vucevic a couple of years ago and spent big on Biyombo this past summer.
Philadelphia 76ers: The One-Man Process
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You're not supposed to judge a process, let alone The Process, by results. But that's what will happen with the 2016-17 Philadelphia 76ers.
It won't be about the win total or progress on offense. It won't even be about Ben Simmons developing enough of a jump shot to scare defenders into guarding him outside the lane.
It'll be about Joel Embiid.
If he stays healthy and shows signs of being the Sixers' true cornerstone—a legitimate two-way, weakness-free star in the way that Philly's other lottery picks aren't—he can validate departed executive Sam Hinkie's controversial approach.
There may not be a bigger "if" in the league than Embiid, who hasn't played a game in two full seasons because of injury. But a strong showing from him could mean it'll no longer be if the Sixers can turn it around.
It'll be when.
Phoenix Suns: Patience and the Payoff
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Tolerance—for growing pains and a lot of losses—will be the most important concept for this season's Phoenix Suns.
"It's odd to think that the Suns will be worse in Year 4 of [Ryan] McDonough's tenure than in Year 1, but much closer to actually accomplishing something," Paul Flannery wrote for SB Nation. "That assumes that [Alex] Len, [Marquese] Chriss and [Dragan] Bender work out, or at least two of the three, and they didn't have anywhere near the upside talent base when McDonough arrived. That will take time to develop, so let's hope for patience."
Devin Booker showed promise and the confidence of a future star in his rookie season, but he's entering his age-20 campaign. No matter how high his ceiling might be, he'll have to pick himself up off the floor more than once in 2016-17.
Phoenix's last few years have been marked by potential, quick-pivot reactions to adversity and a general misjudgment of where the team was in its ascent. The Suns must avoid overreacting to the inevitable rough spots ahead.
There's talent on the roster...or at least the potential for talent eventually. For now, appreciating modest growth, keeping perspective and trusting in a longer-term vision will be vital.
The Suns have gotten this part of franchise-building wrong lately. They need to get it right this time.
Portland Trail Blazers: Is More of the Same Enough?
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If you're convinced last season was the start of something for the Portland Trail Blazers, you must be ecstatic about their league-best continuity rating. According to NBA.com's John Schuhmann, nobody is bringing back more 2015-16 minutes than Portland at 90 percent.
With Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli joining such a stable and youthful roster, improvement might seem like a foregone conclusion.
The flip side, of course, is that the Blazers overachieved last year and may struggle to duplicate that performance. That's not to say Portland will fall off a cliff, but it's worth noting that Andrew Johnson's historically trustworthy win projections at Nylon Calculus have the Blazers slated for 44 victories—exactly what they achieved in 2015-16.
Will Turner complicate the ball-handling mix and cramp the floor with his lack of shooting? Will Ezeli ever play a full season? Can C.J. McCollum keep making those tough mid-rangers?
Assuming an uninterrupted rise is more fun, and it's possible the Blazers will keep climbing. But there's also a chance that merely repeating last year's performance will be difficult.
That battle with expectations will define Portland's season.
Sacramento Kings: How Different, Really?
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The outward signs of a new beginning are all here: tweaked uniform designs, a new head coach and a sparkling downtown arena. This season's Sacramento Kings aren't so much rebranding as they're legitimizing—outfitting themselves in the trappings of a functional franchise.
Maybe it will work.
Because in addition to the new look, digs and sideline leadership, Sacramento's roster is deeper than the one that managed 33 victories with a checked-out coach, an injury-riddled rotation and Rajon Rondo's defense. With Dave Joerger in charge, DeMarcus Cousins smack in the middle of his prime and help from offseason additions Matt Barnes, Arron Afflalo, Anthony Tolliver and even Ty Lawson, the Kings look better on paper.
Why shouldn't 40 wins be on the docket?
Mainly because the ownership and management structure presiding over these last few years of dysfunction is still there—the one familiar element that could render all the other changes meaningless.
San Antonio Spurs: Regarding Timmy
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There's no other Tim Duncan, and the San Antonio Spurs can't expect to replace everything he gave them by committee.
But they'll have to try.
Kawhi Leonard must become a better leader. To a lesser extent, so must LaMarcus Aldridge. They were the Spurs' most consistently productive players a year ago, but with Duncan around, they never had to feel the pressure of 11 other sets of locker-room eyes turning to them for guidance...or strategic paintball advice.
Admittedly an easier task with Leonard and Danny Green on the perimeter, defending the rim will still be tough without Duncan and his perfectly timed mini-shuffles anchoring the interior. Dewayne Dedmon is a low-cost patch job, but he'll help. And Pau Gasol can alter a shot as long as he doesn't have to defend a pick-and-roll first.
The Spurs will almost certainly win another 50-plus games and look as dangerous as anyone outside the Warriors. But they'll still be missing something irreplaceable.
How they go about trying to fill the Duncan void, and how close they come to doing it, will be a major story all year.
Alternate option for the 10th straight season: Is this finally it for the Spurs?
Toronto Raptors: Maintain, Maintain, Maintain
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Sometimes, avoiding a fall is better than continuing a climb.
That's where the Toronto Raptors are these days. Following a 56-win season that saw them reach the conference finals, the Raps cannot expect similar health and productivity from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan—both of whom had career seasons in 2015-16.
That's not to say Toronto's backcourt has no shot at running it back at last year's level.
It's just that expecting a repeat would be a mistake...and a little unfair.
Per Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley: "Between the East's collective rise and the defensive damage done by Bismack Biyombo's departure, Toronto won't match last season's success. The Raptors aren't in danger of a dramatic drop, but they'll lose a spot or two in the conference standings."
Though it's fair to expect DeMarre Carroll to play more and Norman Powell to take a step forward, Toronto must get comfortable with the idea that a modest step back isn't the same thing as failure. In fact, merely maintaining last year's franchise-best levels would be a massive success.
Utah Jazz: It's Time
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If your susceptibility to getting caught up in Utah Jazz optimism rates high on the spectrum, this is your third season in a row with playoff expectations. And even if you weren't an early believer in their interior defense, youth and good hair (that part is mostly Gordon Hayward), you probably at least saw reasons to get excited last year.
The bandwagon was full of early adopters and hipsters two seasons ago. Last year, it added some more mainstream passengers. And now, it's loaded with all comers.
That distills the biggest storyline down to one wildly complicated yet somehow simple sentiment: Is this the year "this year" is this year?
Hayward is in his prime. Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are the best interior defensive tandem around. Dante Exum is back. Rodney Hood and Trey Lyles are legitimate rotation talents (and maybe more). Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw add veteran experience. Alec Burks might be healthy. Last but not least, Joe Ingles remains slo-mo Manu Ginobili, and you cannot underestimate that.
It's a strange thing, this idea of major expectations for a team that hasn't technically accomplished anything. But the enthusiasm is real, and the demands will be significant. Another year of potential, promise and encouraging advanced metrics won't cut it.
It's time to deliver.
Washington Wizards: No More Excuses
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This is John Wall's seventh season. It's Bradley Beal's fifth.
The Washington Wizards, then, no longer get to hide behind the young-team-finding-its-way excuse. That's the message new head coach Scott Brooks is imparting.
"I've had experience coaching a lot of young guys," Brooks told the Washington Post's Jerry Brewer. "The thing that I've told every player I've coached: 'Once you play in the NBA, age is not even considered.'"
With a mindset like that, the Wall-Beal relationship will bear monitoring. And rotation helpers like Otto Porter may not get the kind of slack they did under former coach Randy Wittman. This feels like a necessary next step for the Wizards, who have generally matched every promising flash with a disappointing regression.
Brooks wants his team to get serious and step off the mediocrity treadmill. If it doesn't look like the Wizards are meeting his demands early, perhaps the big storyline this season will be a roster shake-up in Washington, D.C.
