Top 2016 Offseason Priorities for the Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons got swept in their opening-round series with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but their season was a success. It was their first postseason visit in seven years, so it was just nice to have an opening-round series to be swept in.
As head coach Stan Van Gundy’s philosophy took hold, both through personnel changes and coaching, the Pistons improved by 12 games, tied for fourth in the league with the San Antonio Spurs, and only behind the New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Charlotte Hornets.
Sometimes success can’t be measured by championship or bust. Sometimes it’s about moving forward, and the Pistons most certainly did that. What do they need to go from playoff team to contender?
How Much Cash?
Let’s look at where they are regarding cap and free-agency situations based on the information at Spotrac.com. This includes guaranteed contracts, free-agent cap holds and the hold for their No. 18 pick. Don’t read too much into this table just yet because there’s quite a bit to consider. But $86.3 million is the starting point
| PLAYER | POS. | 2016-17 | Type |
| Tobias Harris | SF | $17,200,000 | Guaranteed |
| Reggie Jackson | PG | $14,956,522 | Guaranteed |
| Aron Baynes | PF | $6,500,000 | Guaranteed |
| Jodie Meeks | SG | $6,540,000 | Guaranteed |
| Marcus Morris | PF | $4,625,000 | Guaranteed |
| Andre Drummond | C | 8,180,228 | RFA Cap Hold |
| Anthony Tolliver | PF | 3,900,000 | UFA Cap Hold |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | $3,678,319 | Guaranteed |
| Stanley Johnson | SF | $2,969,880 | Guaranteed |
| Joel Anthony | C | $2,500,000 | Nonguaranteed |
| Steve Blake | PG | $2,821,605 | UFA Cap Hold |
| Reggie Bullock | SF | $2,255,644 | Guaranteed |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | PG | $980,431 | Nonguaranteed |
| Darrun Hilliard | SF | $874,636 | Nonguaranteed |
| No. 18 Pick Cap Hold | $1,420,100 | Rookie Cap Hold | |
| Lorenzo Brown | PG | $1,015,696 | Team Option |
| Josh Smith | SF | $5,400,000 | Dead |
| Aaron Gray | C | $452,049 | Dead |
| Total | $86,270,110.00 | Total |
Detroit has $58.7 million in guaranteed contracts it has to pay out. In addition, it's still paying for Josh Smith (and will be doing so in perpetuity it seems) and Aaron Gray due to previous buyouts. Darrun Hilliard’s contract is also partially guaranteed for $500,000. That (and four incomplete roster charges to fill up the roster) would put them at just over $65 million as the most cap space they can have.
However, they’re not going to do that. They’re obviously going to keep Andre Drummond and their pick. Those two, plus the eight guaranteed contracts, put the Pistons at $68.3 million and still in need of two roster spots.
That leaves the Pistons $23.7 million in cap space to work with, as well as their room exception.
Hold Off on Andre Drummond
Observant readers will note that the figure listed above for Andre Drummond is way too small. In reality, he’s probably going to get a max contract starting at $23 million (25 percent of the expected $92 million cap reported by Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today).
However, because his hold is only $8.2 million, the Pistons can wait on giving him his max deal, spend in free agency, then max out Drummond to go over the cap. That would still leave them roughly $5 million below the projected $111 million luxury tax.
This is a tactic employed by the San Antonio Spurs last summer when they secured LaMarcus Aldridge before re-signing Kawhi Leonard. It’s the plan for Drummond as well, according to David Mayo of MLive.com, who reported at the time:
"Andre Drummond has agreed not to pursue a contract extension this year, a key business decision that figures to give the Detroit Pistons almost $13 million more in salary-cap space in summer 2016."
Free-Agent Targets
The teams who do the best in free agency aren’t always the ones securing the biggest stars. Those that improve depth can also be big winners. Detroit Free Press writer Vince Ellis quotes general manager Jeff Bower, “We’re at the point now, too, where we can use the work of the team to build the team, which is a good place to be.”
Particularly, they need to start with an upgrade at backup point guard, which is something Van Gundy addressed in his exit interview. Also from Ellis:
"While the Pistons have done a good job acquiring talent in two years of the Stan Van Gundy era, getting a good backup point guard in the off-season is a priority.
“It’s a lot of ways a point guard-driven league right now,” Van Gundy said Thursday. “It’s a big pick-and-roll league, and the more guys you have that can play like that, certainly that’s something that would be a priority for us.”
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So the Pistons are looking for a specific type of backup point guard: one who can play well in the pick-and-roll and is able to hit from deep (knowing Van Gundy’s penchant for the three-ball).
I looked at the top 10 point guards in free agency listed at HoopsHype that wouldn’t be Pistons retreads (so no Brandon Jennings or D.J. Augustin), how they did in the pick-and-roll based on numbers at NBA.com, their three-point percentage and assists per 36 minutes.
| Player | PNR | 3P% | ASS/36 |
| Mario Chalmers | 0.87 | 30.9 | 3.8 |
| Mike Conley | 0.86 | 36.3 | 7.0 |
| Jeremy Lin | 0.79 | 33.6 | 4.1 |
| Raymond Felton | 0.78 | 45.0 | 4.7 |
| Ty Lawson | 0.77 | 33.3 | 6.0 |
| Rajon Rondo | 0.75 | 36.5 | 11.9 |
| Langston Galloway | 0.74 | 34.4 | 3.7 |
| Deron Williams | 0.72 | 34.4 | 6.5 |
| Randy Foye | 0.70 | 30.0 | 3.5 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 0.68 | 41.0 | 6.5 |
The Pistons should allocate a maximum in the $12-13 million range. That might seem steep for a backup point guard, but remember there's going to be massive inflation this summer. Last year's $10 million contract will absorb as cap space as this year's $12.7 million contract. And with almost every team having money to spend, it will escalate inflation.
The Pistons wouldn't have to spend that much money, but they should be ready to.
Mario Chalmers will be coming off a blown Achilles, Mike Conley will be too expensive and Rajon Rondo is probably too much of a headache to consider. That leaves the best realistic options as Jeremy Lin or Raymond Felton. And if you’re feeling lucky, roll the dice on Ty Lawson and offer him $5 million. He might actually work well in Detroit.
The other pressing need is a backup center because of Andre Drummond’s free-throw problems (his 38.0 percent is the worst of anyone in history with 1,000 attempts, according to Basketball-Reference.com).
However, when Aron Baynes, Drummond’s backup, was on the court, the Pistons were minus-4.7. They had a net rating of plus-2.0 with Drummond.
That’s just not sufficient. Most of the top centers will be out of reach, but Zaza Pachulia, Bismack Biyombo or even Timofey Mozgov could be available for around $10 million and would provide a serious upgrade.
Fortifying the 1 and the 5 would go a long way toward helping the Pistons reach the next level, but a veteran wing they can get on the cheap with the room exception would also help.
Perhaps someone like Joe Johnson, whose best days are behind him, but who could provide tutelage and leadership to developing players Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Stanley Johnson. The Pistons could offer the room exception of $2.9 million, which might be enough to pry him away from the Miami Heat if they refuse to go over the cap and re-sign Hassan Whiteside to a max deal. Johnson would need to be willing to take a massive pay cut to play another key role for a winner, something Detroit could offer in spades.
Finally, the Pistons will be getting back Jodie Meeks, who has spent the majority of his Pistons career injured. He missed 22 games his first year with a back injury and 79 last season with a broken foot. It’s also possible that Van Gundy tries to trade him away, but it might be hard to find a taker considering the history.
Draft-Day Targets
Draft day won’t be as important to the Pistons as it has been in recent history, since they only have the No. 14 pick. That’s the kind of “problem” you deal with when you’re making the playoffs.
Considering where they’re at as an organization, it would make more sense for them to draft someone who is closer to playing now, meaning an upperclassman. And considering Meeks’ injury history, it makes sense if that’s a 2-guard.
Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report projected the Pistons to take Denzel Valentine out of Michigan State, on March 23.
"Valentine's upside is debatable, but not his fit in the pro game. He made over 100 three-pointers for the second straight year and finished second in the country with a 45.8 assist percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.
I wouldn't bank on his 19.2 points per game carrying over, but at 6'5", 220 pounds, his shooting and passing should translate from the 2-guard position.
Detroit could use some backcourt depth, and Valentine can provide it at both guard positions.
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Valentine would be an excellent fit and be able to play right away. But he may be gone by the time the Pistons’ pick comes up. Demetrius Jackson, a senior from Notre Dame who averaged 16.4 points and 4.7 assists, might still be there. And if they’re both gone, Taurean Prince, the senior swingman from Baylor, is NBA-ready and looks like he has a career as a three-and-D wing who would slide nicely into Van Gundy’s system.
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