NFL Playoff Picture Breakdown and Analysis for Week 17

Week 16 of the 2015 NFL season is now in the books, and it is time to re-evaluate the playoff picture. As is the norm for this league, things didn’t go according to plan for a handful of playoff contenders last week. This leaves us with a meaningful Week 17 that will determine who will be in the playoffs and where they’ll be playing.

While the NFC just needs to figure out the seeding for the playoffs, the AFC has some work to do. The sixth seed and second wild-card spot are still open between three teams. The AFC South also must cough up a winner.

We have you covered for the NFL playoff picture as Week 17 rapidly approaches. Leave your predictions for how this all plays out in the comments section below.

Current AFC Playoff Seeding

Associated Press

AFC No. 1 Seed: New England Patriots (12-3)

Despite still sitting in the No. 1 overall seed for the AFC, the New England Patriots appear to be backing into the playoffs at this point. It seems as if everyone on this roster is injured in some fashion. Many teams that suffer from such injury spells tend to be bad by the end of the year, and the Patriots do not look like a team that should be favored in the playoffs.

They have already earned a bye week in the playoffs, which is a positive to look forward to. With the Bengals losing to the Broncos, the Patriots need to beat the Dolphins to secure their seeding. Considering how Miami has played lately, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Remaining Schedule: at Dolphins (5-10)

AFC No. 2 Seed: Denver Broncos (11-4)

Denver won a critical game against Cincinnati to clinch its playoff spot. The Broncos will finish no worse than the fifth seed and have the ability to earn a first-round bye. A Week 17 matchup with San Diego looks like a somewhat easy win for Denver, which would be No. 12 on the season.

Due to the conference game record, the Broncos sit in the second seed. This is a huge change from last week, and it seemed unlikely until Andy Dalton got hurt two weeks ago. Now, Denver is in a commanding position. 

Remaining Schedule: vs. Chargers (4-11)

AFC No. 3 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Bengals dropped their fourth game of the season in Week 16. Losing in Denver is nothing to be ashamed of, but it puts the Bengals in a must-win situation for Week 17. Their first-round bye is gone thanks to their overtime failure.

Working with a backup quarterback in a critical stretch is far from ideal. But these are the waters the Bengals must navigate through until Dalton returns, if he can. Missing out on a bye week could prematurely end their playoff run.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Ravens (5-10)

AFC No. 4 Seed: Houston Texans (8-7)

The Houston Texans have been playing their best football of the season recently. Their 34-6 blowout victory in Tennessee gives hope they’ll finish the season with another win against the Jaguars. It may have seemed unlikely early in the season, but the Texans are likely playing past the regular season.

Houston’s ability to draw production from random sources has been key. This team won’t be favored in any postseason matchup, but the NFL is unpredictable. The Texans just need a chance to prove themselves.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Jaguars (5-10)

AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)

The Chiefs officially locked in their playoff spot with a 17-13 victory over the Browns. It was ugly, but another interception by Marcus Peters and a dominating defensive performance led the way. They took care of business and don’t have to fret about playoff status in Week 17.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Raiders (7-8)   

AFC No. 6 Seed: New York Jets (10-5) 

It seemed unlikely one week ago, but the New York Jets are in a commanding position for the final wild-card spot. Winning against New England in overtime significantly boosted their playoff odds. They’ll clinch with a win in Buffalo or a Steelers loss.

New York will be a tough opponent for anyone if it can make the playoffs. The Jets' physicality on both sides of the ball is something many teams can't counteract.

Remaining Schedule: at Bills (7-8)

Current NFC Playoff Seeding

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NFC No. 1 Seed: Carolina Panthers (14-1)

It took 16 weeks to happen, but the Carolina Panthers lost a game. A loss is never a positive, but losing a divisional game when you're undefeated and have only one more game left is not a big deal. Carolina is one game ahead of the Cardinals for the top overall seed.

There is a chance the Panthers could lose home-field advantage if Week 17 doesn’t go as planned. Losing to Tampa Bay at home, coupled with a Cardinals’ win against Seattle, would cause the Panthers to drop. Expect the Panthers to give it their all Week 17 to ensure they don’t leave Carolina until the Super Bowl.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Buccaneers (6-8)

NFC No. 2 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (13-2)

The best team in the NFL right now, regardless of record, is the Arizona Cardinals. This team is on fire, coming off a 38-8 thrashing of Green Bay. Arizona has won nine straight games, with its last two resulting in blowouts.

The Cardinals can earn the No. 1 seed with another win and a second straight Panthers’ loss. With Seattle already locking in its playoff seat, Arizona might be tempted to rest its players as well. Both teams may opt to keep their strategies close to the chest, as they may face off in the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Seahawks (9-5)

NFC No. 3 Seed: Green Bay Packers (10-5)

The Green Bay Packers are guaranteed to make the playoffs, but their seeding is not set in stone. Divisional rival Minnesota is coming to Lambeau Field this week to settle who will earn the NFC North crown. Considering how each team is trending, Green Bay might be in trouble.

Despite their defense ranking 10th in points allowed per game, the Packers do not look like a Super Bowl contender right now. Their offense has been running through mud, which is shocking considering what this team was for the previous several years. This team must find itself quickly and start piecing together quality football to be a real threat.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Vikings (10-5)

NFC No. 4 Seed: Washington Redskins (8-7)

What we have seen down the stretch from Washington speaks volumes to the work Jay Gruden and his staff has done with this team. Yes, Washington plays in a bad division, but he decided to put his job on the line by starting Kirk Cousins. That decision is paying off wonderfully, as Cousins and the Redskins offense has flourished with Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson in the lineup.

With confidence instilled, this team is making plays. Rookie pass-rusher Preston Smith really stepped up, notching his seventh sack of the season against Philadelphia. Getting production from players who emerge throughout the season is a sign of good talent evaluation and development. With those in hand, the Redskins are certainly trending upward.                                                                                                               

Remaining Schedule: at Cowboys (4-10) 

NFC No. 5 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (10-5)

Coming off a destruction of the New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings are looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Their passing game is alive as Teddy Bridgewater has surged down the stretch. With a healthy defense and Adrian Peterson, this Vikings team is good enough to beat any NFC foe.

The youth of the team is what could hold it back. The Vikings have a major test in Week 17 against the Packers. This is especially notable since they lost their previous head-to-head matchup with Green Bay. The winner will earn the divisional title and third overall seed.

Remaining Schedule: at Packers (10-5) 

NFC No. 6 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (9-6)

The Seattle Seahawks were white-hot before playing the Rams in Week 16, where Seattle dropped to 9-6 and into the sixth seed. The Rams are a bad matchup for Seattle. Of their last eight matchups, the two teams have each won four times. Considering where the Rams have finished compared to Seattle, it is clear these two teams just play each other tough.

Seattle has clinched a playoff spot already. The Seahawks' Week 17 matchup with Arizona can only boost them to the fifth seed. They may just want to rest their starters and prepare for the postseason.

Remaining Schedule: at Cardinals (13-2)

Teams on the Bubble

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a seemingly easy path into the playoffs. Win and they were in. Now, they need help to reclaim the sixth wild-card spot.

Pittsburgh’s offense surprisingly faltered in Baltimore, which leaves this team in an undesirable position of being on the outside looking in. Injuries have cost the Steelers, but those are part of the game. The pressure is on Pittsburgh to take care of the Browns in Week 17.

Remaining Schedule: at Browns (3-12)

Indianapolis Colts (7-8)

Indianapolis took care of business in Week 16, winning 18-12 in Miami. This keeps the Colts relevant in the AFC South race. They must beat the woeful Titans at home to have a chance at the divisional title.

If Houston slips up and the Colts win, then they will need the common opponents to also help the Colts. It’s convoluted and unlikely, but here is a breakdown of how the Colts can make the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Titans (3-12)

Teams out of Contention

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The NFL playoff picture is as closed off at this point as it could be without being completely decided. Only two AFC teams have any chance at cracking the current set of 12 teams. Everyone else can be found below.

Teams Eliminated from Playoffs

AFC: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans

NFC: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AFC Seeding Odds

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AFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: New England Patriots

New England is still the favorite to earn the top overall seed. It's no longer a heavy favorite to seal this up, but the Patriots have a favorable matchup in Week 17 to clinch.

Long Shot: Denver Broncos

Two teams can catch the Patriots for the top spot, including the Bengals and Broncos. The Broncos are the longest shot since they would need several common opponents to win and help Denver’s strength of schedule. It’s not impossible, but one wrong result would eliminate Denver from the No. 1 seed.   

AFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Denver Broncos

As stated above, if the Broncos, Patriots and Bengals all take care of business against bad teams in Week 17, then this is the order they’ll finish. Denver must win to ensure it gets a first-round bye. It could end up as the top overall seed, but that scenario requires several other teams to cooperate.

Long Shot: New England Patriots

It’s possible the Patriots end up with the second seed, but their advantage matchup-wise with the pathetic Dolphins is a major reason why it is unlikely. It is simply hard to see this team losing in Week 17. If it does, then it could end up as low as the third seed.

AFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Cincinnati Bengals

If Week 17 ends in wins for the Patriots, Bengals and Broncos, then the Bengals would finish with a first-round bye. Considering the weak schedule for these teams, this is the most likely outcome. The Bengals need a first-round bye desperately in hopes of getting Andy Dalton back, but they need Denver to now lose.

Long Shot: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City can move up to the third seed if it wins and the Broncos and Bengals lose in Week 17. The Chiefs can also win the division if just the Broncos lose. This would give them home-field advantage for the opening week of playoff games.

AFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Houston Texans

Houston is close to making the playoffs for the first time since 2012. In the franchises’ two playoff trips, it was able to win on Wild Card Weekend before bowing out. Another run like that would be a pleasant surprise to keep things from getting stale. Houston must win this week to guarantee its playoff spot, but it is likely it will finish in first place in the AFC South and be crowned divisional champions.

Long Shot: Indianapolis Colts

When I say the Colts are long shots, they are the definition of it. According to ESPN.com writer Jeremy Mills the odds are 3,326-1. They need a lot of help, and it is highly unlikely.  

AFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City isn’t locked into this seed. It could ascend to the third spot or drop to sixth depending on the result of the Week 17 matchup with Oakland. The Chiefs will make the playoffs, though, as they own a tiebreaker with the Jets to protect them from falling out of the playoffs completely.

Long Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers hurt themselves by losing at Baltimore last week. There’s really no excuse for it, either. Pittsburgh can get up to the fifth seed with help from Denver, Kansas City and the Jets. The Steelers must have each team lose and beat the Browns as well.

AFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: New York Jets

The Jets pulled a minor surprise by beating the Patriots at home last week. Winning in Week 17 clinches their wild-card seeding. That’s a simple formula. If New York loses, then it needs the Steelers to lose as well. 

NFC Seeding Odds

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NFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: Carolina Panthers

Carolina is still seated at the top, although its grasp is slipping a little. The Panthers cannot afford to lose in Week 17 if home field means anything to them. If they do, the Cardinals can swoop in and snatch the top overall seed if they beat Seattle.

Long Shot: Arizona Cardinals

Arizona may not reach the top seed, but it deserves credit for at least getting this far. Regardless, the Cardinals have a first-round bye week in the bag as a worst-case scenario.

NFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Arizona Cardinals

This isn’t a bad spot for Arizona. If the Cardinals decide to take Week 17 off and rest starters, or if they just lose to Seattle, they’ll settle for a first-round bye and home field for at least one game.

Long Shot: Carolina Panthers

If Carolina loses against Tampa Bay and the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, then Carolina moves into the second seed. That would be a major disappointment in terms of momentum from where Carolina was one week ago. It may be a moot point, as Carolina clinches the top seed with a win.

NFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are trending upward and actually playing like a playoff team right now. They have impact players at the most important positions on the field. They have obvious limitations at receiver and offensive line, but the same can be said for Green Bay right now. If they win in Green Bay this week, they’ll be division winners.

Long Shot: Green Bay Packers

It’s hard to bet against the Packers since their franchise history is so strong and they still have Aaron Rodgers. But right now this is not a good football team. It’s not just Rodgers, but he is surely missing Jordy Nelson and an in-shape Eddie Lacy. It seems more likely the Packers lose in Week 17, which pushes them to the wild card.  

NFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Washington Redskins

This one is simple since the Redskins already clinched the division. They can just sit back and relax in Week 17 and try to stay healthy.

NFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Green Bay Packers

As mentioned above, whether the Packers are the favorite for the fifth seed or the third just depends on your prediction for the Vikings and Packers matchup. I believe the Vikings will win, pushing Green Bay down. The fifth seed will end up playing in Washington on Wild Card Weekend.

Long Shot: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle can move up, but losing last week made the situation a little more muddied. Now we have to factor in strength of schedule and divisional records, which won’t be known until after Sunday’s slate of games play out.

NFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Seattle Seahawks

The worst-case scenario for Seattle is also the most likely. Surely, the Seahawks would rather face Washington than Green Bay or Minnesota, but they could be the favorite either way. Seattle may choose to rest this week instead of battle for a fifth seed.

Long Shot: Minnesota Vikings

A loss for Minnesota and a win for Seattle can possibly push the Vikings down to the sixth seed. It’ll come down to common-opponent record, so the results there can cause the Vikings to drop. 

Week 17 Games with Biggest Playoff Implications

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

For the New York Jets to solidify their playoff spot, the easiest route is through western New York. The Jets can win and lock in a wild-card berth. This would be their first trip to the playoffs since 2010 when they reached the conference championship.

Buffalo is another physical team, but it has eroded down the stretch. The Jets are familiar with the crash-and-burn style of Rex Ryan, but that element of revenge from the Bills’ head coach maybe provides extra motivation for the team to play hard in Week 17.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

This game could be an epic playoff preview or a complete dud filled with backups. It all depends on whether each coaching staff values the chance to improve its seeding. The difference between the second and first seed is small for Arizona, and the same can be said for the fifth and sixth seed for Seattle.

If these teams decide to go 100 percent, clear your late Sunday afternoon off because these are two of the best NFC teams right now. Two excellent quarterbacks, head coaches and defenses will make this a game we should hope to see come playoff time.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

We know this game will be taken seriously. There is a scenario where these teams will play again next week in the Wild Card Round. The winner will own home field if there is a third game between these familiar foes.

Both Green Bay and Minnesota will make the playoffs, but where and whom they’ll play has everything to do with the result of this game. Each staff wants to find the more advantageous matchup to help them win.

All stats used are from Pro-Football-Reference.com. Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow @NFLFilmStudy