Updated Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team at Quarter-Season Mark
The quarter mark of the 2015-16 NBA season should come with a crystal ball.
It doesn't. Not for the most part.
The only truths revealed so far are the ones we could see coming before the campaign tipped off. The defending champion Golden State Warriors are incredible. Ditto for the San Antonio Spurs, already a contender last season before adding LaMarcus Aldridge and David West during their free-agency heist.
As for the bottom-feeders, that group looks equally short on surprises. The Philadelphia 76ers are tanking, and they're playing like it. The Los Angeles Lakers look like they're being led by a broken-down present version of a leader from their past.
There's plenty of smoke and mirrors beyond those four, with injuries, inconsistencies and still-developing identities clouding our view. But there's still enough data on hand to make educated guesses about what lies ahead.
Between current bodies of work and the track records behind them, we can get a sense of who's playing under, over or at its actual level. Factoring in health concerns (those we've already seen and the ones we're likely to encounter going forward) and scheduling quirks (overloaded home stands or road trips), we can gain a clearer picture of who's likely to rise or falter down the line.
Combine all of the above, and we can plot potential win-loss records awaiting all 30 clubs.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
Record: 13-9
Current Pace: 49-33
The biggest question facing the Atlanta Hawks this season was their ability to survive the offseason departure of DeMarre Carroll. So far, so good on that front.
Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha have masterfully handled the two-way duties on the wing. They've combined for 19.4 points on 49.4 percent shooting (40.9 from three), 9.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.3 steals per game. They've also helped offset the lack of impact provided by summer additions Justin Holiday and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Paul Millsap and Al Horford continue to make up one of the league's premier frontcourt tandems. Kyle Korver remains a high-volume, high-efficiency gunner from long range. But the Hawks were hoping for more from point guards Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder, both of whom are down multiple field-goal percentage points from their 2014-15 rates.
The Hawks are a good team, but they don't look like a 60-win one. They should, however, land within throwing distance of the Eastern Conference's top spot.
Projected Record: 50-32
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
Record: 12-9
Current Pace: 47-35
There are so many ways to lavish praise onto Boston Celtics skipper Brad Stevens, but perhaps none more effective than this: The team's whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
Taken individually, the Celtics don't have many fear-inducing players on their side. Isaiah Thomas is a combustible offensive threat. And there are a handful of wildly disruptive defenders.
But there's a reason Boston is seemingly always linked to every available (or potentially available) star. The organization lacks one of its own, save for the 39-year-old genius on the sideline.
At some point, that will prove problematic. The Celtics can pick off sleeping giants; their execution is precise (third in assist percentage), and they scrap like one of Stevens' old mid-major underdogs. But winning at a high level is nearly impossible without top-shelf talent.
Projected Record: 43-39
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
Record: 6-15
Current Pace: 23-59
The Brooklyn Nets' best player, Brook Lopez, is a plodding 7-footer who would have worked best in previous basketball eras. Their starting point guard, Jarrett Jack, is a 32-year-old who has started fewer than half of his career games. Their highest-paid player, Joe Johnson, has posted a personal-worst 10.0 player efficiency rating, according to Basketball-Reference.com—several levels below the league average of 15.0.
"They're just not a very good team," wrote ESPN.com's Mike Mazzeo, "which means their margin of error is extremely thin."
The Nets were 22nd in net efficiency last season, outscored by 3.1 points per 100 possessions. They have fallen to 27th this time around (minus-6.4), plagued by a sputtering offense (28th), a leaky defense (21st) and a dearth of outside shooting (30.1 percent, dead last).
The limited potential for internal improvement—the only high-ish level prospect, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, is out indefinitely following ankle surgery—makes it hard to imagine much of this getting any better. The Nets might have 20-win talent, but they'll battle longer than a typical bottom-feeder since their upcoming first-round pick belongs to the Celtics.
Projected Record: 24-58
Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
Record: 12-8
Current Pace: 49-33
The Charlotte Hornets are hard to recognize, and that's a good thing.
A team that once lived and died off of Al Jefferson's low-post production now tosses in more triples than all but six squads (9.5 per game on 34.9 percent shooting). Five different players average double-digit points, including the two ahead of Jefferson in the offensive pecking order: Kemba Walker (17.4 points, 4.7 assists) and Nicolas Batum (17.0 points, 4.7 assists).
More importantly, the extra offense hasn't come at the defense's expense. In fact, the Hornets are one of only three teams to post top-seven efficiency marks on both sides of the floor.
Sustainability will be something to monitor, though. Charlotte's top defender, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, is likely lost for the year after shoulder surgery. And the offense isn't exactly overflowing with reliable scoring threats. Some regression feels likely, as the eye test pegs the Hornets a few notches below their current level.
Projected Record: 43-39
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
Record: 11-7
Current Pace: 50-32
Fred Hoiberg's Chicago Bulls don't look a lot different than Tom Thibodeau's teams. Almost all of their success comes directly from the defensive end. They rank fourth in efficiency on that side and a maddening 26th on the other.
But this squad seems to be missing one critical component those groups never left home without: an unwavering toughness that helped them battle fatigue, injuries and talent shortages.
"I don't think we bring that fight every single night," Jimmy Butler said, via ESPN.com. "... We always need to and have to be the hardest-playing team."
The Bulls can't bank on their offense winning games. Not when four of the top seven players in their rotation are shooting below 40 percent from the field. And their defense could struggle to stay among the elite if they continue having issues with consistency in their effort.
New season, same story: Chicago intrigues on paper but has more good moments than great ones inside the lines.
Projected Record: 48-34
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
Record: 14-7
Current Pace: 55-27
A climb is coming for the Cleveland Cavaliers, quite possibly a very steep one. After literally limping through the early portion of the season with no Kyrie Irving or Iman Shumpert, the defending Eastern Conference champs are nearing the return of their starting backcourt.
"They both will accompany the Cavs on their two-game road trip through Orlando and Boston starting Friday," wrote ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "Their return is, in a word, imminent."
And important. When the Cavs had Irving and LeBron James on the floor together last season, they smashed opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions. When Shumpert and James shared the hardwood, that number was 17.5. For context, the undefeated Golden State Warriors currently boast a plus-16.3 net efficiency rating.
Cleveland hasn't shown anything close to its best yet. It has, however, coaxed better numbers out of Kevin Love, which should help the club keep stacking wins even if Irving has a little rust or James requires periodic rests.
Projected Record: 54-28
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
Record: 13-9
Current Pace: 49-33
Good luck making sense of the 2015-16 Dallas Mavericks. Every time out is another opportunity for them to test conventional wisdom.
At 37 years old, Dirk Nowitzki should be slowing down. He's pacing his club with 17.9 points and striping a career-best 43.8 percent of his threes. Wesley Matthews should be limping through the early stages of his comeback from a ruptured Achilles suffered in March. He already has a 36-point, 10-triple outburst under his belt.
Zaza Pachulia looked like a fingers-crossed gamble after Dallas' DeAndre Jordan pursuit fell apart. Pachulia has been a double-double machine and a boost of 4.4 points per 100 possessions when he hits the floor. The NBA ship had seemingly sailed on both Deron Williams and Raymond Felton. They're putting up a combined 24.2 points and 9.0 assists a night.
The Mavs haven't had many signature wins; only two of their 13 victories have come against teams with a winning record. But they've also played more road games than anyone (both Dallas and the Los Angeles Lakers have played 14 contests away from home). Look for the Mavs to continue on close to their current clip, falling a few games short along the way as their age shows.
Projected Record: 45-37
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
Record: 8-14
Current Pace: 30-52
There isn't much for Denver Nuggets fans to get excited about—for now. Their top scorer, Danilo Gallinari, is hitting less than 39 percent of his field-goal attempts. Their top setup man, rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, is coughing up 4.9 turnovers per 36 minutes.
This is, in rebuilding terms, a lean year.
But it's also a starting point. Mudiay's continued game experience should only accelerate his development. Gary Harris played like a first-round reach last season. This time around, he looks more like a fixture (49.2 percent shooting, 43.8 from deep).
Under first-year coach Michael Malone, Denver is getting a sense of direction. But it will take some time before things start heading north.
Projected Record: 27-55
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
Record: 12-10
Current Pace: 45-37
Andre Drummond is the best center in the NBA. Before overanalyzing that statement, consider this: He's on pace to become the first player to average at least 18 points, 16 rebounds, 1.5 steals and one block since...ever. Or since the latter two categories were officially recorded, at least.
So, the Pistons have a star. (Yes, even if Drummond is lugging around his unsightly 37.1 free-throw percentage.) And they have a near-star in point guard Reggie Jackson, who's tallying 19.3 points, 6.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds a night, plus sporting a personal-best 21.3 player efficiency rating.
But it's unclear what the Motor City has behind those two. The next-highest scorer, Marcus Morris, is shooting just 39.9 percent from the field. Behind him is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a hard-nosed defender, but also a 40.1 percent shooter. Rookie Stanley Johnson oozes toughness, but that doesn't make his 37.2 percent conversion rate look any better.
However, the Pistons offense should get a lift when Brandon Jennings (Achilles) and Jodie Meeks (foot) return to action. Add in Detroit's ninth-ranked defense, and this group could have staying power.
Projected Record: 42-40
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
Record: 23-0
Current Pace: 82-0
Impossible, right? There's no way an undefeated campaign can happen.
Right?
Watching the Golden State Warriors, who even knows anymore what definitively can't happen on the hardwood. Reigning MVP Stephen Curry and All-Star backcourt mate Klay Thompson are shooting threats as soon as they get off the bus. Draymond Green is dropping dimes like a nervous bank teller. And interim skipper Luke Walton is either staying out of the way or making the defending champs even more potent.
The Dubs were by far the league's best outfit last season. They're even better this time around, dismantling opponents by 16.3 points per 100 possessions on a nightly basis.
Short of a significant injury to a central figure, it's getting harder to imagine what could keep this group from having a(nother) historically dominant run. Still, that may not mean 72-win dominance. If the Warriors played the rest of this year at last season's clip (.817 winning percentage), they'd wind up with 71 victories. We'll assume they concede a couple of games late for playoff rest and fall just shy of that mark.
Projected Record: 69-13
Houston Rockets
11 of 30
Record: 10-12
Current Pace: 37-45
Will the real Houston Rockets please stand up? Less than seven months ago, they were battling Golden State with an NBA Finals berth at stake. Now, they're struggling to string together anything of substance.
They already have three losing streaks of at least three games, and they've suffered two defeats at the hands of the Nets and the Nuggets. The three clubs with a worse defensive rating than Houston's 106.2 have a combined record of 16-49.
Are these the real Rockets, then? That's hard to fathom with so many players back from the Western Conference Finals squad, plus explosive point guard Ty Lawson, three-point gunner Marcus Thornton and energetic rookie Montrezl Harrell added to the fray.
Houston's rotation features a horde of ghastly shooting marks, none more concerning than James Harden's career-worst 39.7. He's too talented not to figure this out, but the Rockets are losing potentially valuable ground the longer it takes to get him going.
They're better than their current record, but apparently not by nearly as much as we all thought earlier this year.
Projected Record: 43-39
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
Record: 12-8
Current Pace: 49-33
Paul George is back like he never left. On second thought, he's back like he spent the past year getting his hoops doctorate, hitting the hardwood as an upgraded version of his previous All-Star form.
"This is definitely the best stretch that I have had," George said recently, via Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star. "I really put in a lot of work this summer and preparation to be ready night in and night out."
The proof of that labor is in the production. The Eastern Conference Player of the Month for November, George has topped 25 points in 14 of his 20 outings. He is the key catalyst for the Indiana Pacers' ninth-ranked offense, leading the way in scoring (27.9), threes (3.5 per game) and three-point percentage (44.8). He's also routinely taking and acing Indy's toughest defensive assignment.
George can keep Indiana in the playoff picture, but the supporting cast will determine what seed this squad can secure. The Pacers need more from the perimeter trio of George Hill, Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey. A healthy, rapidly developing Myles Turner could have fortune-changing potential.
Projected Record: 46-36
Los Angeles Clippers
13 of 30
Record: 12-9
Current Pace: 47-35
Doc Rivers spent his summer vacation trying to fix a broken Los Angeles Clippers bench. The early return on those efforts suggest there's plenty more work to be done.
Paul Pierce is either starting to lose his battle with Father Time, or he's stuck in an unfortunate shooting slump. Either way, the 38-year-old is posting career worsts from the field (30.0 percent) and three-point line (24.6). Ditto for 35-year-old Jamal Crawford, who's hitting just 37.4 percent of his shots and only 32.6 percent of his long-range looks.
Consistency is an ongoing issue for former lottery picks Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson. The Clippers have reportedly "gauged trade interest" in the volatile duo of Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith, sources told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears.
There's more going wrong than right in Clipperland, which could be the primary reason for optimism going forward. With healthy versions of Chris Paul and J.J. Redick back in the mix, surrounding the explosive frontcourt tandem of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, L.A. is never far from a season-altering winning streak—even if the revamped reserve unit fails to come around.
Projected Record: 50-32
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
Record: 3-18
Current Pace: 12-70
Don't be fooled by the lopsided record or the intriguing collection of young talent. The Los Angeles Lakers are not rebuilding.
They absolutely should be, both to better prepare for the post-Kobe Bryant era and give themselves the best shot at exercising the top-three protection on the first-rounder owed to the Philadelphia 76ers. But they're not. They're force-feeding 37-year-old Kobe Bryant touches he clearly can't handle (16.2 points per game on 17.8 shots) and benching top-10 picks D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle.
"This change wasn't so much based on them not performing up to their capability," Lakers coach Byron Scott said of the demotions, via Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times. "It's based on where we are as a team."
The "logic" here is hard to follow. Both Russell and Randle have been far more efficient than Bryant. If Scott wants to put his strongest five on the court, it's hard to imagine that collection including someone with a higher age than field-goal percentage (30.6).
Besides, the success of this Lakers season shouldn't be measured by wins and losses. Player development has to be top priority, especially with L.A. careening toward another cellar-dweller finish regardless of who it plays.
Projected Record: 16-66
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
Record: 12-10
Current Pace: 45-37
The Memphis Grizzlies don't mind life in the mud. But lately, they seem to have fallen victim to their own trap.
"It might be time for a change in Memphis," wrote ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. "Opponents have outscored the Grizz starting five by 20 points per 100 possessions, effectively turning them into the Sixers until Dave Joerger yanks someone."
There isn't enough offense to go around. They have a hard time hitting from anywhere, sitting 27th in field-goal percentage (42.2) and 29th from deep (30.4). An elite defense once offset similar issues, but that side of the floor has become its own problem. Memphis sits 25th in defensive efficiency and has let 12 of its first 22 opponents clear the century mark.
With more clubs embracing the pace-and-space style, Memphis' grit-and-grind mantra feels more dated by the day (especially with the defense leaking like it is). But the Grizzlies can't exactly alter the formula, as they lack the firepower needed to become an offense-first club. That probably won't mean the loss of a playoff berth, but a top-four seed in the West seems out of the question.
Projected Record: 44-38
Miami Heat
16 of 30
Record: 12-7
Current Pace: 52-30
The Miami Heat have had good wins and bad losses, encouragements and frustrations already, and they've yet to hit the 20-game mark. Still searching for chemistry after an injury-ravaged 2014-15 campaign, the former perennial finalist is one of the harder clubs to peg down.
Both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have looked like stars, but each is currently holding a career-worst field-goal percentage (45.5 and 44.4, respectively). Hassan Whiteside can play like a savior—he's blocking shots at a rate unseen in a decade (4.5 per game)—but Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has had a hard time fitting the 7-footer into today's smaller, quicker NBA.
Miami's second-ranked defense should keep this club in it for the long haul, but it has limited margin for error at the other end. Between dribble penetrations, off-ball cuts, pick-and-rolls and post-up plays, so much of the Heat's offense is centered on the interior. That area can prove hard to unclog by its 28th-ranked three-point attack (31.5).
The Heat's home-heavy schedule to start the campaign has left some lengthy road trips ahead. The injury bug has already made a few appearances and, based on recent history, isn't likely to leave South Beach alone. That's a long-winded way of saying this veteran group could face its share of stumbles over the 82-game trek to the postseason.
Projected Record: 46-36
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
Record: 9-13
Current Pace: 34-48
This was supposed to be the season when the Milwaukee Bucks blossomed from League Pass darlings to full-fledged sleepers. Armed with a new No. 1 scorer (Greg Monroe) and a thicket of long-limbed defenders, the Bucks seemed ready to build off last season's surprise playoff berth.
One look at the record shows that hasn't happened. The Bucks have nose-dived from second to 26th in defensive efficiency, a fall at least partly attributable to Monroe's arrival and Jabari Parker's return. That pair was supposed to spark Milwaukee's stagnant offense, but the team is actually scoring fewer points per 100 possessions than it did last season (99.7, down from 100.5).
The Bucks may not stay down for long. Coach Jason Kidd is still ironing out his rotations—10 different players have already started a game—and the pecking order is still being established. Not to mention the uncharacteristic shooting struggles of Khris Middleton (39.3 percent, 44.5 for his career) and Greivis Vasquez (34.2, 42.0), which should be corrected with time.
Remember, Milwaukee has a lot of moving parts and young ones at that. This group's identity is still being formed. There's enough raw talent to at least push the defense back to the middle of the pack, and the offense has upward mobility, assuming Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo keep climbing the food chain.
Projected Record: 37-45
Minnesota Timberwolves
18 of 30
Record: 8-12
Current Pace: 33-49
The Minnesota Timberwolves are officially terrifying. Or they will be sooner than later, at least.
They've handed over the keys to their high-ceiling youngsters, letting rookie Karl-Anthony Towns and sophomores Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine lead them in field-goal attempts. But they've surrounded the budding ballers with battle-scarred veterans like Kevin Garnett, Tayshaun Prince, Andre Miller and Kevin Martin.
This allows ample room for growth while also providing guidance. The Timberpups can figure things out on their own, but they don't always have to. There are seasoned soundboards to answer questions, make suggestions and provide the recipe for a successful NBA career.
It's hard to argue with the results. Both Wiggins and LaVine have added more than four points to their scoring average while also experiencing a significant bump in PER. Towns looks talented beyond his 20 years, notching 14.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks a night.
The Wolves are still feeling growing pains on either end of the floor, and their vets are old enough that they're more valuable for their smarts than their actual skills. Another lottery appearance is awaiting this group, which would only make their promising future even brighter.
Projected Record: 29-53
New Orleans Pelicans
19 of 30
Record: 5-16
Current Pace: 20-62
The New Orleans Pelicans have tried to build a contender around soaring superstar Anthony Davis. But the results of those efforts have been nearly impossible to read, as this core has been consistently broken apart by injuries.
This season has been no exception. Four of their five projected starters (Davis, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Omer Asik) have skipped at least three games. The only one who hasn't (Eric Gordon) has a track record suggesting his absence is coming. Arguably their most talented five—Davis, Holiday, Evans, Gordon and Ryan Anderson—have logged just a single minute together so far.
It's tough to dig too deep into their struggles when they've rarely had their preferred personnel. But the numbers are what they are: minus-7.6 points per 100 possessions, third-worst net efficiency rating overall. That can make anyone restless, and New Orleans has reportedly had "preliminary contact" about a trade for Phoenix Suns forward Markieff Morris, sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania.
There isn't enough evidence to figure out if New Orleans' methods are working. That means there's also no guarantee this group ever rights the ship. The Pelicans aren't this bad, but they could easily be denied a return ticket to the postseason.
Projected Record: 36-46
New York Knicks
20 of 30
Record: 10-12
Current Pace: 37-45
So much for the road back to respectability. The New York Knicks' encouraging 8-6 start has since fizzled after a stretch of six losses over eight outings. At different times, the offense has failed to ignite and the defense has broken down.
"We're having a hard time physically sustaining the activity level and intensity that a game demands," Knicks coach Derek Fisher said, via Marc Berman of the New York Post. "... We got stagnant and leveled off."
The lone constant has been presumed project pick Kristaps Porzingis. The 7'3" 20-year-old has 10 double-doubles in 22 games, 12 outings with multiple blocks and five 20-point outbursts. His 20.5 PER leads the 'Bockers.
Carmelo Anthony, still feeling the effects of February knee surgery, is shooting a career-worst 40.6 percent. The Knicks have struggled to find reliable options among their supporting cast.
This is a better team than last year but not yet a legitimate playoff threat.
Projected Record: 34-48
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
Record: 13-8
Current Pace: 51-31
The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't quite there. When they've had Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook healthy before, they've found themselves on a very short list of the NBA's elite. This group is close to that level, sitting second in offensive efficiency and 10th at the other end.
But it's a half-step or so below its typical dominance. The Thunder's current .619 winning percentage would be their second-lowest since 2009-10, topping only the 2014-15 campaign they spent mostly without Durant.
Not that this is entirely surprising. They're working under a first-year head coach in Billy Donovan (hired in April), and their supporting cast looks substantially different than it did a year ago. Durant and Westbrook have been incredible, erupting for 54.3 points, 15.3 rebounds and 13.7 assists per game. But it can be a crap shoot behind them, as only two other regulars have an above-average PER (Enes kanter, Serge Ibaka).
With this two-headed monster at the wheel, the Thunder shouldn't have any problems navigating their way to a prominent playoff position (health obviously permitting). And if Donovan can elicit more from the guys around his dynamic duo, OKC might maintain a sprinter's speed for the duration of this marathon.
Projected Record: 53-29
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
Record: 12-9
Current Pace: 47-35
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Scott Skiles walks into a young, defensive-minded locker room and transforms a promising tomorrow into a playoff-caliber today. Well, it's happening again.
The Magic look head, shoulders and a torso above where they spent last season. Their winning percentage has spiked from .305 to .571. They've skyrocketed from 25th to fifth in defensive efficiency, and they sit fourth overall in field-goal percentage against (41.8).
"I love what Scott Skiles has done so far in Orlando with a very young team," wrote NBA.com's David Aldridge. "They're not only playing very good defense, they've been good on offense."
Skiles has helped balance the backcourt by splitting the non-shooting duo of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. Evan Fournier has enjoyed a career year, and Channing Frye's promotion to the starting lineup has spread the floor and opened driving lanes. With Frye on the floor, the Magic have played like a top-three offense (107.2 points per 100 possessions).
Projected Record: 41-41
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
Record: 1-21
Current Pace: 4-78
At least we know for certain the Philadelphia 76ers won't go winless. Beyond that, it's hard to tell what they can—or even want—to accomplish.
Nine of their 21 losses have been decided by double-digits. Their net rating is a grisly minus-12.0 points per 100 possessions. They've been essentially as inept as the San Antonio Spurs have been dominant (plus-12.4 net rating).
While that might seem like part of "The Process" for the Sixers, is anyone still certain of what that process entails? If patience is the key to Philly's ultimate success, why did the franchise just make 76-year-old Jerry Colangelo its chairman of basketball operations? Because patience is a precious commodity.
"It signals a change in the Sixers' rebuilding plan," wrote USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "... The 76ers hired Colangelo to rebuild the team faster than [general manager Sam] Hinkie."
Maybe that makes Philly more aggressive near the trade deadline, swapping future assets for present relief. But this roster is so stripped-down, it might take years for anyone to make it competitive.
Projected Record: 12-70
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
Record: 9-13
Current Pace: 34-48
The Phoenix Suns aren't necessarily stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity, but they might have borrowed it for the duration of this season. They're still missing a star—LaMarcus Aldridge would've looked great in purple and orange—and their best players aren't quite of the transcendent kind.
There aren't many backcourts better than Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. There aren't many rookies with a higher ceiling than Devin Booker. There aren't many better defensive anchors than Tyson Chandler.
But all of the above are out there, which makes it hard to see how this Suns group can be special.
So far, their best has been decent: a 7-5 start to the season, 102.0 offensive rating (tied for 14th overall). Their blunders have been several layers below: a 2-8 record since, the league's second-highest field-goal percentage against (46.7).
The Suns are more solid than good and certainly not in the neighborhood of greatness. Even in an apparently weakened Western Conference, that probably means a losing record and a return trip to the back end of the lottery.
Projected Record: 36-46
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
Record: 9-14
Current Pace: 32-50
Backcourt of the future, meet underwhelming supporting cast of the present. After spending the past few seasons with one of the NBA's strongest starting fives, the Portland Trail Blazers are resetting themselves around the electric guard tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
The appeal in that pair is obvious. Together, they've piled up 44 points and 10.8 assists per game, both hitting multiple threes a night on 37-plus percent shooting. Lillard turned 25 in July, and McCollum celebrated his 24th birthday two months later. This prolific production is only the beginning.
But the Blazers are still learning what else they have. Allen Crabbe has nestled into a permanent role, while Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis have given Portland two active bodies around the rim. But Al-Farouq Aminu has struggled with his shot, Meyers Leonard has battled both inconsistency and injury, and Noah Vonleh has looked organic-granola raw.
In the big picture, none of that really matters. This is a year of discovery for the rebuilding Blazers, and as long as they can identify the keepers, this campaign will have been a success—even if the record seems a bit unsightly.
Projected Record: 32-50
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
Record: 8-15
Current Pace: 29-53
All things considered, things could be much worse for the Sacramento Kings. There have been reports of a rift between their head coach, George Karl, and best player, DeMarcus Cousins, dating back to the summer. The front office lacks experience, and the owner, Vivek Ranadive, has burned through four coaches in less than three seasons.
Maybe 8-15 isn't that bad, especially when the Kings have gone just 1-7 with Cousins out of the lineup. For all of the reported dysfunction, this season has had its share of pleasant surprises. Who foresaw Rajon Rondo turning back the clock and pacing the NBA with 11.0 assists per game and four triple-doubles? Did anyone realize Rudy Gay is having the second-best shooting season of his 10-year career?
But that brings up a troubling question—how can things get better? The Kings are still below .500 when Cousins plays. They've been outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions with Gay on the court; 5.5 during Rondo's minutes. They might not have the coach, nor the players, needed to turn around their 28th-ranked defense.
Sacramento's nucleus falls short of being postseason-caliber, and there aren't enough prospects to change that fate.
Projected Record: 34-48
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
Record: 18-4
Current Pace: 67-15
This is textbook San Antonio Spurs style. Leave it to the silver and black to be sprinting along at a franchise-record pace (.818 winning percentage) and have no one paying attention. If we weren't so distracted by that shiny, golden object in Oakland, we'd be marveling over Gregg Popovich's newest creations in the Alamo City.
Remember when Kawhi Leonard left San Diego State with the non-shooter label on his back? He's currently leading all qualified snipers with a 50.0 three-point percentage while launching a career-high 4.1 per game. Remember the concerns that LaMarcus Aldridge might be too selfish for San Antonio's egalitarian system? Tell me this recent quote about his declining stats doesn't sound downright Spursian.
"It doesn't really matter. It's not about me," Aldridge said, via ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright. "It's about the team, and the team's been winning. So that's all that matters, really."
It's been nothing short of an absurd start for the Spurs. Their plus-12.4 net efficiency rating is comical, even if it is (somehow) only the league's second best. Oh, and Danny Green, a career 41.2 percent shooter from deep, hasn't found his long-range touch yet (29.4).
The best is still to come for San Antonio. This roster may well hold something close to 70-win talent, but Pop's playoff preparations will likely leave some wins on the table.
Projected Record: 60-22
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
Record: 13-9
Current Pace: 49-33
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have twice delivered the Toronto Raptors their most successful campaign in franchise history. This could be another standard-setting year, as both perimeter players have elevated their games to new heights.
Lowry, who dropped a significant amount of weight over the summer, belongs on everyone's MVP watch list. If the season stopped today, he'd have new personal highs in points (22.2), rebounds (4.9), steals (2.6), PER (25.9) and true shooting percentage (59.6). His floor presence has meant the difference of 15.7 points per 100 possessions.
"He's simply doing everything that already made him a good player at an even higher level and is in better physical condition to prevent him from wearing down," wrote SB Nation's Jesus Gomez. "As long as he remains in great shape, he is the star that can lead the Raptors to the second round (and possibly beyond) for the first time in 15 years."
DeRozan is tallying 21.1 points a night, and his career highs include 4.3 assists and a 19.0 PER. And thanks to newcomers like DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and Bismack Biyombo, the Raptors have jumped from 23rd to 12th in defensive efficiency, showing the two-way balance they couldn't harness last season.
Projected Record: 51-31
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
Record: 9-10
Current Pace: 39-43
If the Utah Jazz can't make their anticipated leap this season, blame the injury bug. It robbed them of lanky young point guard Dante Exum before the year (torn ACL), and it's since sidelined shot-blocking machine Rudy Gobert indefinitely with an MCL sprain.
Without their 6'6" head of the snake and 7'2" rim protector, the Jazz have disappointed defensively. They're tied for 16th in efficiency, surrendering 101.6 points per 100 possessions—nearly seven more than they did after the All-Star break last season. That's not a bad number by any stretch, but it's also not where it needs to be for Utah to make any noise in the West.
This offense doesn't have much margin for error. The Jazz's high scorer, Gordon Hayward, ranks just 27th overall at 18.6 points per game. They play at the league's slowest pace (95.04 possessions per 48 minutes) and attempt the seventh-fewest threes (21.1 per game).
Dominating defensively is the key to any substantial success for this core. That won't be easy with Exum on the shelf and Gobert out for the foreseeable future.
Projected Record: 40-42
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
Record: 9-10
Current Pace: 39-43
The shackles are fully off the Washington Wizards offense. They're playing as quick and small as possible, flooding the floor with shooters and attacking at every opportunity.
What that means as far as on-court gains remains uncertain. Their raw scoring is up more than two points per game (100.9, from 98.5), but they've actually fallen from 19th to 22nd in offensive efficiency. Making matters worse, their defense has tumbled from elite (fifth last season) to below-average (22nd).
And yet, there are reasons to feel bullish about the Wizards' future. The biggest—and most obvious—is the recent play of All-Star floor general John Wall. After struggling through the first 14 games to the tune of 16.1 points on 39.0 percent shooting and 7.6 assists, he's scorched his last five opponents for 28.0 points on 56.0 percent shooting and 9.4 helpers.
Add the leaping-before-our-eyes Bradley Beal to this backcourt, and an eventual playoff picture starts to take shape. With frontcourt reinforcements coming off the injury report, the Wizards seem poised to snap out of their early-season malaise.
Projected Record: 45-37
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Dec. 8.
