Panthers vs. Titans: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?
When Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers take on the Tennessee Titans this Sunday, Newton will be looking to join a rather exclusive club.
Five active quarterbacks have put together streaks of 12 regular season wins or more. It’s a solid list, all things considered. According to ESPN, the list is Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. All five, of course, wear Super Bowl rings.
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Newton can pick up his 12th-consecutive win on Sunday. While the Panthers have a longer streak than that going, Newton missed the Tampa Bay game last year after fracturing his back in a car crash. Thus, only now can he join that list of five.
Quarterback wins aren’t a particularly meaningful stat—it’s a team effort, as everyone on that list would readily tell you—but captaining a team through an extended period of success is a staple of every great quarterback. It’s indicative of the step forward Newton has taken over the past calendar year, as well as the improved team around him, that Newton can be compared to that previous list of probable Hall of Famers.
Of course, very much wanting to keep Newton from that list are the Titans, who are riding high after a win of their own with the return of their star quarterback, Marcus Mariota, and their new head coach, Mike Mularkey. What will the Panthers have to do to join the 26 teams that have started their seasons 9-0? Let’s take a closer look.
Offensive Game Plan
While the Titans are not a good team, sitting at 2-6, they do have one good aspect to them—they defend against the pass well.
In their first seven games, they held opponents under 300 yards passing, and in three of their first four games, they held their opponents under 200 yards. They have nine interceptions, tied for 10th-most in the league—and they have an interception every 26.3 pass attempts, the second-most frequent in the league.
They’ve allowed the fewest completions and third-fewest yards in the league, although that’s in part a function of opposing teams generally running the ball to run out the clock. They also have 22 sacks, tied for seventh in the league. Those aren’t numbers you’d usually expect from a 2-6 team.
The Titans enjoy pressuring the quarterback, and the trio of Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan are all solid at bringing pressure on the quarterback. The threesome has combined for 13 sacks, 15 quarterback hits and 50 quarterback hurries this season, per PFF.
The Titans are going to attack Michael Oher and Mike Remmers, trying to pressure Newton and hit him the backfield. Dick LeBeau’s defense—he’s technically just an assistant, but the long-time Steelers defensive coordinator knows a thing or two about defensive football—has been remarkably adept at getting pressure this season, for a 2-6 squad.
Unfortunately for the Titans, Newton has been fairly solid when pressured this season. His mobility and awareness allow him to move around and avoid pressure, either taking off running or finding an open man. If the Titans bring pressure, in other words, they’d better make sure it gets to the target, or Newton is going to make a big play.
Further damaging the Titans’ pass defense this week is the injury status of their cornerbacks. Jason McCourty will be out with his groin injury, and both Perrish Cox and Blidi Wreh-Wilson are questionable with hamstring troubles. The injury situation in their secondary caused them to allow their first 300-yard passing game of the year last week to Drew Brees, and it doesn’t appear to be getting better.
The run defense has been an issue for the Titans all year long, as they rank 20th against the run, allowing 101.6 yards per game. They held the Saints to 61 rushing yards last week, but that’s partially due to how the Saints are built and partially due to the fact they were passing with ease. The Panthers are more built to be a power running team, and should find success attacking the Titan’s run defense.
Back in Week 5, Tyrod Taylor found success running against Tennessee, carrying the ball eight times for 76 yards and a touchdown. Last season, the Titans also struggled containing the likes of Blake Bortles and Alex Smith—quarterbacks with a bit of mobility have found room to run against Tennessee. There’s no quarterback in the game better at running the football than Newton, so that’s a potential exploitable matchup.
Expect the Titans to try to use middle linebacker Wesley Woodyard, a solid run defender this season, as a spy on Newton. Only four inside linebackers have a higher run defense grade on PFF than Woodyard does this season, and two of them are All-Pros Luke Kuechly and NaVorro Bowman.
It’s worth noting that grade is somewhat of an aberration—he hasn’t graded as highly in years past and was benched by Denver in 2013 before coming to Tennessee. He’s still been solid this year.
Defensive Game Plan
The Titans’ offense has not been particularly good all season long, but Marcus Mariota has shown flashes of tremendous production. In his NFL debut, Mariota threw for 209 yards and four touchdowns against Tampa Bay. He had a 367-yard day against Indianapolis in Week 3. He just threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns against New Orleans. The kid’s got an arm, in other words.
He also has had some soft teams to play against. According to Football Outsiders, New Orleans has the worst defense in football. Tampa Bay isn’t far behind them, with the ninth-worst pass defense. Of those opponents, only Indianapolis is in the top half in terms of pass defense, and they forced a couple of interceptions.
Carolina’s pass defense will be the toughest Mariota has faced. Josh Norman will be the toughest cornerback he has faced. The pass rush, with Kawann Short coming up the middle, will be the toughest pass rush he’s faced. I don’t want to take anything away from Mariota’s rather impressive beginning to his career, but Carolina is just a different beast on defense.
Not helping their cause is Byron Bell starting at right tackle. Panthers fans will remember Byron Bell as last year’s starting left tackle, mostly watching pass-rushers go by and forcing Cam Newton to have to scramble around out of danger on nearly every other play.
Bell’s been kicked back out to tackle because the previous right tackle, rookie Jeremiah Poutasi, had been a disaster. The Titans have allowed 28 sacks this season, and Mariota is still partially recovering from his knee injury—he’s not as mobile as he was in college.
Mariota has been sacked on 27.4 percent of the plays he’s been under pressure on, worst in the NFL, per PFF. Meanwhile, the Panthers have sprung to life with 12 sacks in their last three games, and they could be getting Dwan Edwards back for depth purposes, which should help with the fatigue the defense has suffered from in the fourth quarter the last two weeks.
This looks like a matchup where Kony Ealy, up against Bell, and Kawann Short, the leading defensive tackle pass-rusher in football, can regularly and consistently get pressure on Mariota, disrupting the timing of the game.
Mariota doesn’t have very many receivers to throw to, with Kendall Wright missing another game. His top target, and the one the Panthers will need to work hardest to eliminate, is tight end Delanie Walker. Walker is the team leader in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns, and he has had five games with more than 50 yards receiving, including all of the last four.
Roman Harper will likely be the primary defender against Walker, and he’s coming off a couple of good days in a row against Richard Rodgers and Coby Fleener. If he can keep Walker under control, the Titans’ passing attack will be highly hampered.
Tennessee’s best rusher at the moment appears to be Antonio Andrews, who has rushed for more than 50 yards in each of the last three games as he’s become the team’s lead back. Andrews is not special athletically, but he’s tough between the tackles and good at getting what’s blocked for him.
The Panthers have struggled a little against the run this season, at least by the standards of an undefeated team. That means they’ve been merely above average, rather than particularly good, at defending it. They had a four-game stretch where they allowed 100 or more yards rushing to Tampa Bay, Seattle, Philadelphia and Indianapolis. Seattle and Philly are tough, but Tampa Bay and Indy less so—it’s probably the biggest defensive point for concern.
Still, they’ve been solid, and they held the Packers under 80 rushing yards last week. If they win the battle at the line of scrimmage, they should be fine against the run in this one.
Key Players
Panthers QB Cam Newton
With a secondary missing possibly three cornerbacks and a defense that has struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks, Newton could possibly have a huge day against Tennessee this weekend. I’m not sure he’ll top the 300-yard passing mark Drew Brees was able to hit against the Titans, but another multiple-touchdown day doesn’t seem out of the question.
I’m not fully buying into the “Newton for MVP” argument that’s going around, but the Panthers would not be the same team without Newton at quarterback. He’s taken a step forward into being at least a top-10 quarterback this season, and he’s simply a mismatch for defensive fronts to deal with.
Titans TE Delanie Walker
Walker is one of the best all-around tight ends in football. He’s the Titans’ leading receiver, and a significantly above-average blocker. With Justin Hunter missing this game with an injury, his role will be even more important in this matchup.
Walker has over 50 yards receiving in each of his last four games, but 61 of those yards last week came on one of the most bizarre plays you will ever see. Don’t let the luck involved in this double-deflected touchdown reception fool you, though—Walker is a legitimately dangerous target.
Panthers DE Kony Ealy
The Panthers get the benefit of going up against old teammate Byron Bell. Bell was overmatched at left tackle last season, but he was more solid moving inside to guard earlier this season. Circumstances have forced him back to an outside role, however, and while right tackle is easier than left tackle, it’s still not Bell’s ideal position.
It’s a weak point on a line that has allowed 28 sacks this season, and an opportunity for Ealy. Ealy has picked up his game in the past two weeks, with a pair of sacks and 11 total quarterback pressures, per PFF. It’s another chance for a big day for Ealy, in what should be a positive matchup for Carolina.
Panthers DT Kawann Short
My personal choice for Panthers MVP through eight games, Short has been a human wrecking ball up front this season. He’s been getting consistent pressure up front, both pressuring the quarterback and stopping running backs in their tracks. He needs to be consistently double-teamed or he’ll win matchups and wreck plays.
The Titans are starting rookie Andy Gallik at center and either rookie Jeremiah Poutasi or ex-49er Joe Looney at left guard. Whichever one gets the start, that’s a massive advantage for Short. The relative inefficiency of Tennessee’s offensive line is likely to be their downfall.
Titans LB Wesley Woodyard
Cam Newton not only has more rushing yards than any other quarterback, he’s the 32nd-leading rusher in the league with 343 yards on the season. That’s more than any one rusher on Green Bay, Cleveland, Washington, Houston or, yes, Tennessee. Couple that with Jonathan Stewart’s solid season and you have the sort of rushing attack that can punish opposing defenses.
Woodyard is the man responsible for stopping these runners before they can break one deep. He leads the Titans with 28 defensive stops, per PFF, and a big day by him in the run game is probably necessary if Tennessee is going to pull off the upset.
Prediction
No 2-6 team has ever beaten an 8-0 team—at least, not since the merger, when they are 3-0.
The Carolina Panthers have never beaten the Tennessee Titans, going 0-3 in three matchups. They did beat the Houston Oilers back in 1996 but haven’t even topped 20 points since the Titans set up shop in Nashville. Clearly, one of these two streaks will end on Sunday.
The Titans have more hope now with Mariota at the controls and Wisenhunt out of the picture, but they’re still a 2-6 team for a reason. They may not be mathematically eliminated, but they’re playing more for future development and pride, while the Panthers are trying to ensure a solid playoff spot.
Don’t entirely discount the possibility of a letdown after the rough stretch the Panthers just went through, but they are the better team and should come out on top.
Final Score: Carolina 27, Tennessee 17
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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