Everything You Need to Know About the Chicago Bulls' 2015-16 NBA Season
Last season, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers sent the Chicago Bulls fishing early for the fourth time in his career. It was the third time in the last five years. And the disappointing finish was the last straw for the Bulls front office of Gar Forman and John Paxson.
They ended the somewhat successful, (but dysfunctional), multiyear relationship with coach Tom Thibodeau, whose set ways and insistence on taxing players with heavy minutes had worn management's patience thin. While the Bulls had positive results under Thibodeau during the regular season (255-139), the postseason was another story (23-28 and four series wins in five years).
Oftentimes, the Bulls that survived to the postseason were typically too wounded and worn to compete at the same level. And so, the duo colloquially known as GarPax replaced old-school Thibodeau with a new-school mentality in Fred Hoiberg.
Key Additions/Subtractions
Additions: 2015 first-round draft pick power forward Bobby Portis, Fred Hoiberg
Subtractions: center Nazr Mohammed, Tom Thibodeau
The Bulls did almost nothing this offseason in terms of changing the roster. The only addition to the roster who is likely to make the final cut is No. 22 pick, Bobby Portis out of Arkansas.
Portis has been impressive during the preseason, averaging 10.4 boards and 12.2 points. It's enough that Hoiberg is pondering how to get him minutes according to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
The Bulls only subtraction, other than Thibodeau, is emergency fill-in Nazr Mohammed, who retired.
Storylines to Watch
With Hoiberg in as coach, and the focus shifting from defense to offense, the Bulls will be a different team this year, which is weird because they have almost the exact same roster.
They’ve been averaging 30.4 three-point attempts during the preseason, which is significantly more than the 22.3 they did last year. And their 11.0 makes during the exhibition circuit is second among NBA teams, according to NBA.com. Thus, the fate of the new-fangled Bulls will depend on their best scorers and shooters more than the grit and grind of the Thibodeau era.
Jimmy Butler’s respectable shooting percentages, ability to draw fouls and failure to turn over the ball placed him among the most efficient scorers in the NBA last season. As I noted here for Today’s Fastbreak, he averaged 26.8 points per 100 possessions, but he used just 21.6 of those possessions, making for an average of just 1.24 points per possession used.
Only Anthony Davis (1.27) and Kevin Durant (1.30) fared better.
And when you look at Butler's scoring-to-usage ratio (points per game/usage percentage) compared to the best players to average 20 since 2007-08, the company is elite. There's certainly an indication that he has a higher level to which he can take his game.
The question for Butler now is whether he can continue to produce at such a high rate as his usage goes up. If so, he can average 25 points or more and be a dark-horse candidate for MVP.
Derrick Rose is going to try and overcome the “injury-prone” tag—a task made more difficult by the broken orbital bone incurred on the first day of practice. But if he can stay marginally healthy, he could thrive in Hoiberg’s system, which includes a lot of high pick-and-roll action. That, in turn, creates wide-open lanes to the rim, and Rose could take delight in abusing once he gets back to the court.
Finally, the crowded frontcourt with big men Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and surprising neophyte Portis is going to be worth monitoring. Who plays how many minutes and how Hoiberg puts those pieces together could make all the difference for the Bulls, for better or worse.
Hoiberg has already exhibited a willingness to mix and match players. He’s not nearly as stubbornly set in his rotations as Thibodeau was. If he can find the right groupings in which each player can cover another’s weaknesses with his own strengths, the Bulls will have a good run. But it may take some time to crack those combinations.
X-Factor
After finishing fourth in MVP voting during 2014, last season was an awful experience for Noah. He concluded the prior campaign with a knee that required surgery and tried to come back before it healed completely. So he played the entire 2014-15 season on a bad stem.
It showed. The “Tigger bounce” that is so easy to associate with Noah’s irrepressible energy was gone. The enthusiasm was still there, but the physicality to keep up with his vigorous soul was dissipated.
This summer, Noah worked to get back to where he was before he had been hobbled, according to Nick Friedell of ESPN.com:
"Noah spent much of the summer working out in Santa Barbara, California, at P3 The Peak Performance Project, an athletic training facility that, at least in part, is known for helping athletes get back on track after various injuries. Former Bull Kyle Korver swears by the facility. Alongside his trusted friend and trainer Alex Perris, Noah spent much of the offseason in Santa Barbara trying to get his body back in order. The difference in his game early in training camp has been noticeable to teammates who watched him hobble through last season.
"I just feel bouncier, just lighter on my feet. Just waking up in the morning and moving good, that's a good feeling. Doing a lot of yoga every morning before I come in. Just taking care of myself a little different. This isn't my first rodeo."
"
And in the preseason he’s looked better—maybe not quite back to the pre-injury Noah, but decidedly better than the post-injury version.
How much he can get back will make a difference in how the defense fares, and while much of the focus will be on the offense, you still have to get stops to win at the NBA level.
Making the Leap
With Mike Dunleavy Jr. out for the first part of the season and perhaps even longer, Doug McDermott will be getting a chance to prove his mettle. Last year, due to his defensive liabilities and Thibodeau’s reluctance to allow young players to learn from mistakes on the court, McDermott had a short leash with a choke collar. Hoiberg is giving McBuckets a lot more freedom, and it’s paying dividends.
He has been positively lit during the preseason. Through games played on Oct. 14, he had made more triples than anyone in the league, and he’s knocking them down at a rate of 43.2 percent.
It’s pretty easy to figure he’s going to have a much better sophomore than freshman campaign. To put things into perspective, McDermott's 16 triples this preseason are three more than all of last year! So yeah, Hoiball agrees with him.
Best-Case Scenario
The Bulls have a very, extremely, remote, distant, outside chance of getting to the NBA Finals. Theirs is probably better than anyone’s in the East who doesn’t have LeBron James on their team. And, unless James is not able to play, the Bulls probably aren’t going to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in a seven-game series. But Chicago doesn't necessarily have to beat the Cavs to get to the Finals.
There’s a version of events where the Bulls take the No. 2 seed, which isn’t all that silly. And it’s also more than a remote possibility that the Milwaukee Bucks win the No. 4 or 5 seed. And that’s where things could get interesting.
The Bucks' lengthy wingspan, lane-clogging ways and ability to generate a good number of turnovers would make them a difficult matchup for the isolation-happy Cavaliers. The Bucks could surprise Cleveland in the second round and then lose to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Remember, the Golden State Warriors didn’t have to beat the San Antonio Spurs to win the West. They just had to beat the team (the Houston Rockets) who beat the team (the Los Angeles Clippers) who beat the Spurs.
If someone can topple Cleveland, the Bulls match up well in a seven-game series with anyone else in the East. Ergo, the best-case scenario is a 55-win season and the NBA Finals.
Worst-Case Scenario
Another version of events doesn’t go so well for the Bulls. In this sad reality, the injury issues don’t go away with the new coach. A new slate of freak accidents and derailments besieges them. Their defense never gets working, and their offense isn't as advertised.
Butler comes back to earth. Rose doesn’t build on last year and misses half of this one. Gasol just gets older and slower. Noah doesn’t get his rhythm back. McDermott’s defense renders him unplayable. Dunleavy misses most or all of the season. And Hoiberg never figures out the rotation.
In this nightmare, the Bulls are struggling to win 40 games and could be in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since the year before Rose was a rookie.
Predictions
The most likely scenario, though, is that the Bulls win around 50 games and get ousted in either the second round or in the conference finals.
But regardless of what their record is, the thing that will mark this campaign is that they won’t be so horrendously boring that watching them makes you want to repeatedly jab an ice pick in your eye because it would be less painful than seeing the Bulls try to cram one more dangerous pass into the paint.
Chicago will be aesthetically pleasing this year. With the high pick-and-roll, fast pace and spread court, it will be downright fun. And that’s the next-best thing to winning.
Final Record: 50-32
- Division Standing: 2nd
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- Playoff Finish: Eastern Conference Finals
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
