The Best Player on Every NBA Team Entering the 2015-16 Season
For some NBA teams, pinpointing the best player on the roster is blindingly obvious. But for others, attempting to do so is tantamount to banging your head against the wall.
Every organization must have a top member. It's a mathematical certainty, even if we can't always boil down contributions into numbers that can be easily compared.
Finding the answer, however, can be quite challenging.
Who's the best player on the Utah Jazz this season? Now that LaMarcus Aldridge has joined San Antonio, would you choose him or some incumbent member of the Spurs' star-studded lineup? The Boston Celtics have a bunch of above-average players who aren't yet stars; which of them should serve as the squad's representative?
Chances are, some of these answers will change during the 2015-16 season. Every player's stock rises and falls throughout the year—to some extent, at least—as they either develop or take a step back.
But heading into the campaign, these are the players each organization can brag about. The selections were based solely on the expected level of on-court production at the beginning of the season.
Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford
1 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.3 blocks, 21.4 PER
Even though the Atlanta Hawks bring back all four of their All-Stars from the 2014-15 season—Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver—one man stands taller than the rest. Horford, with his 6'10" frame, is literally the tallest of the quartet, but he also narrowly edges out his teammates for individual supremacy.
To be clear, this is a close competition between Horford, Teague and Millsap.
All three are near the top of their traditional position's hierarchy, though it's the 29-year-old's ability to capably play either frontcourt spot that gives him a slight edge. That will be especially important in 2015-16, since the Hawks' roster includes a bevy of diverse big men who can capably team up with Horford—Millsap, Tiago Splitter, Mike Muscala, Walter Tavares and Mike Scott.
He doesn't put up the glamorous stats often associated with the league's best centers, but Horford's positive impact speaks for itself. And after years of honing his mid-range jumper and working on his defensive rotations, that applies to both ends of the floor.
Honorable Mention: Jeff Teague
Boston Celtics: Isaiah Thomas
2 of 30
Position: PG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.1 blocks, 20.6 PER
Of all 30 teams, this may have been the one that required the most head-scratching while trying to isolate a best player.
Though the Boston Celtics have a deep stable of guards and forwards, no one stands out as a true star. Instead, there's a litany of players who are good but not great. If you want to argue for Marcus Smart, Amir Johnson, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Tyler Zeller or even Jae Crowder, your rationale could be perfectly reasonable.
But Isaiah Thomas is the choice.
He might be a glaring liability on defense, but there's no denying his ability to provide the C's with a substantial offensive boost. Thanks to his scoring habits and ability to see around—definitely not over—defenders to find passing lanes, Boston was a completely different team when he was on the floor in 2014-15.
According to my FATS model (based on historical comparison and explained in full here), the Celtics performed like a 50.5-win team when Thomas was on the floor and a 38.1-win team when he was off it. Only Tayshaun Prince had a bigger split, but that came in an extremely small sample before he was traded from Boston to the Detroit Pistons.
Honorable Mention: Marcus Smart
Brooklyn Nets: Brook Lopez
3 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.8 blocks, 22.7 PER
Though Joe Johnson can still score in isolation and play a bit of underrated defense on the wings, the aging shooting guard is no longer the centerpiece of the Brooklyn Nets. Assuming health, Brook Lopez has claimed that role rather definitively.
Defense remains this center's enduring struggle. He can protect the rim when his feet are set around the paint, but an extreme lack of mobility prevents him from doing much else.
Offense, however, is a different story.
Last season, Lopez didn't just average 17.2 points per game; he did so while knocking down 51.3 percent of his shots from the field and 81.4 percent of his looks from the charity stripe. The former figure is actually the lowest he's posted in three years, and that speaks volumes about his ability to serve as a go-to option and torture overmatched defenders with his touch from so many areas of the half-court set.
Honorable Mention: Joe Johnson
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Charlotte Hornets: Al Jefferson
4 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks, 19.7 PER
With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist likely out for the season after going under the knife, this choice is blindingly obvious.
Injuries—as well as overall wear and tear—have forced Nicolas Batum into an early decline, leaving some question marks about his ability to serve as a three-and-D stud with his new team, the Charlotte Hornets. Kemba Walker is far too inefficient. Frank Kaminsky has yet to play a game that actually counts.
Al Jefferson is the only logical choice.
A double-double monster, this center has seen his defensive inadequacies mitigated by head coach Steve Clifford's brilliant system, and that makes him even more dangerous. After all, he's an absolute master of operating from the left block, to the point that some opposing teams focus almost entirely on preventing him from touching the rock at his sweet spot.
Jefferson may be 30 years old now, but his fancy footwork in the post and undeniable touch around the basket should both help stave off Father Time's ill effects for a while longer.
Honorable Mention: Nicolas Batum
Chicago Bulls: Jimmy Butler
5 of 30
Position: SG/SF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 21.3 PER
Though the Chicago Bulls have four players who could reasonably be bandied about as All-Star candidates in the Eastern Conference, Jimmy Butler stands out above the other three. Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose aren't nearly as complete at this stage of their respective careers.
When he was breaking into the league, Butler made a name for himself with his defensive prowess. He could shut down most shooting guards and small forwards with his fundamentals, athletic ability and unending levels of tenacity. And even though he's taken a step back on that end while filling a bigger offensive role, it's not like he's dropped out of contention for one of the league's All-Defensive spots.
Now, it's his offense that allows him to achieve pure, unadulterated superstardom.
Butler has become a go-to scorer—the go-to scorer, really—for the Bulls, thanks to his knack for draining shots from the outside and excelling as a slasher. Not only did he score 20 points per game in 2014-15, but he did so while knocking down 46.2 percent of his attempts from the field, 37.8 percent of his three-pointers and 83.4 percent of his looks from the charity stripe.
Honorable Mention: Pau Gasol
Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James
6 of 30
Position: SF/PF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 25.9 PER
No offense to the other members of the Cleveland Cavaliers' Big Three, but this one is quite obvious.
"No, I don't, but I do also know that Father Time is undefeated," LeBron James explained at media day when asked if he thinks about how much longer he can play, per Brad Sullivan of CavaliersNation.com. "But I definitely don't think about me not being the best basketball player in the world. It's been that way for a while, so I kind of got used to it."
You can argue about the veracity of that statement, but the fact he can utter it with such unbridled confidence is enough. And when you're the best basketball player in the world—or, at the very least, close to it—you're likely the best player on your own team.
Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love may supplant him one day, but let's not pretend James is too old to hold on to his crown for a while longer. Though he'll turn 31 years old near the end of December and has plenty of miles under his belt, he's still going strong.
Honorable Mention: Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki
7 of 30
Position: PF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 37
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 19.2 PER
This spot could go to a number of different players by the end of the 2015-16 campaign.
In a new location, Deron Williams could resuscitate his career and return to playing at an All-Star level. Wesley Matthews could buck the odds and become the rare veteran to recover fully from an Achilles rupture, taking back his spot as one of the league's most underrated wing players. Chandler Parsons could heal from his mysterious injury woes and take over as the future face of the franchise.
But none of them are safe bets, especially with Parsons set to miss the entirety of the preseason.
Technically, Dirk Nowitzki isn't a safe selection, either. The 37-year-old power forward started to decline during the 2014-15 season, wearing down under the weight of the franchise he's carried for so many years.
Even still, he remains the best player on the Dallas Mavericks, able to make up for his defensive lapses and lack of impact on the boards with a tremendous jumper and, hence, ability to space the floor.
Honorable Mention: Chandler Parsons
Denver Nuggets: Danilo Gallinari
8 of 30
Position: SF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.8 PER
Don't sleep on Danilo Gallinari.
The Italian forward moved into the Denver Nuggets' starting lineup right after the All-Star break, and averaged 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks while shooting 44.3 percent from the field and making 40.4 percent of his triples. He highlighted the stretch with two separate 40-point explosions in his final nine games.
That momentum didn't end with the season. In eight EuroBasket games for Italy this summer, Gallinari scored 17.9 points per contest, knocking down 56.9 percent of his field-goal attempts and 40 percent of his shots from beyond the shortened arc, according to Real GM.
Now fully healthy, the 27-year-old is ready to pick up where he left off before tearing his ACL near the end of the 2012-13 campaign. He's a deadly scorer with some oft-overlooked defensive chops, and with Ty Lawson now a member of the Houston Rockets, he's the Nuggets' best player.
Honorable Mention: Kenneth Faried
Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond
9 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.9 blocks, 21.4 PER
Andre Drummond's prowess on the offensive glass and ability to thrive as the dive man in pick-and-roll settings has made him the top dog on the Detroit Pistons. And he isn't done developing yet.
If the Motor City representatives hope to take the next step and end a playoff drought that's dragged on since they were eliminated in the first round of the 2009 postseason, the burden rests on this 22-year-old's broad shoulders. Becoming a capable scorer in the post is absolutely vital, and so too is becoming a reliable rim-protector rather than an athletic shot-blocker who isn't disciplined enough to serve as a defensive anchor.
Drummond has the tools necessary to make the proverbial leap. But even if he doesn't, he's already talented enough on both ends of the floor to outpace every other member of this roster.
Unless, of course, Reggie Jackson somehow manages to maintain the torrid pace at which he played during the tail end of the 2014-15 season.
Honorable Mention: Reggie Jackson
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry
10 of 30
Position: PG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 28.0 PER
This only takes three letters of justification: MVP.
Though Klay Thompson and Draymond Green could both solidify themselves as top-20 players in the Association, only one member of the Golden State Warriors has his sights set on the very top of the NBA's individual hierarchy. That would be Stephen Curry, fresh off another record-setting campaign for the reigning champions that finished with him lifting the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
At this point, we're all familiar with his shooting exploits. But somehow, his remarkable defensive improvement has flown completely under the radar, thanks to a crowd that refuses to accept a small, relatively unathletic guard with a history of porosity as a point-preventing presence.
I'll let ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss, who broke down Curry's defensive impact near the end of last season, take it away:
"Curry doesn't look like a prototypical defender. He's skinny, not especially long and unathletic enough that it's a surprise every time he dunks. But according to defensive real plus-minus, he has a more positive impact than more celebrated defenders such as Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley and his teammate Shaun Livingston. And RPM suggests his defense is the best in the league among MVP-caliber guards, ahead of James Harden, Chris Paul or Damian Lillard.
According to the numbers, Curry positively impacts the Warriors' defensive efficiency more than any of his backcourt teammates—yes, even Klay Thompson, who drew the tougher assignments under Mark Jackson—and ranks second among all guards in the league at opponents' field goal percentage.
"
It's easy for every part of Curry's game to pale in comparison to his marksmanship. But to focus only on that singular aspect of his performance is doing yourself—and him—a disservice.
The preconceived notion that Curry is a defensive liability is an inaccurate one.
Honorable Mention: Klay Thompson
Houston Rockets: James Harden
11 of 30
Position: SG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 27.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, 26.7 PER
Let's see what James Harden said about his runner-up finish in last year's MVP race, per NBA.com's Fran Blinebury:
"I know I was the MVP. That's 100 percent given all the things that happened last season.
Credit the Golden State Warriors for an unbelievable year. They had an unbelievable team, coaching staff, everything.
But that award means most valuable to your team. We finished second in the West, which nobody thought we were going to do at the beginning of the year even when everybody was healthy. We were near the top in having the most injuries. We won our division in a division where every single team made the playoffs.
There's so many factors. I led the league in total points scored, minutes played. Like I said, I'm not taking anything away from Steph, but I felt I deserved the Most Valuable Player. That stays with me.
"
Something tells me the bearded shooting guard wouldn't react favorably if we claimed he wasn't the best player on the Houston Rockets and gave that honor to Dwight Howard instead.
Fortunately, we don't have to find out.
Honorable Mention: Dwight Howard
Indiana Pacers: Paul George
12 of 30
Position: SF/PF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, 13.0 PER
Though George Hill is coming off an underrated season and Monta Ellis is now in town, the crown belongs to Paul George. While it may be difficult for the forward to rebound to his pre-injury level after only playing in six games during the 2014-15 campaign, his upside is unmatched on the Indiana Pacers.
It won't matter if George is content to line up at the 3 or tries to figure things out at a bigger position in the lineup. His ability to serve as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate while adding around 20 points per game leaves just shy of superstardom. That's something no one else on this roster can claim right now, even if Myles Turner seems to have a shot at getting there eventually.
Was George a bit overhyped before suffering the brutal leg fracture last summer? Possibly, but that's irrelevant now.
He's a two-way stud, as well as the only Pacer who possesses the slightest chance of capturing celestial status.
Honorable Mention: George Hill
Los Angeles Clippers: Chris Paul
13 of 30
Position: PG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 19.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, 26.0 PER
No disrespect to Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, but the Los Angeles Clippers belong to Chris Paul.
Even if Stephen Curry has surpassed him in the point guard rankings—a debate for another time and place—he's one of the league's absolute best at controlling a game on both ends of the floor.
Few display such mastery over the half-court set with the ball in their hands, as Paul's herky-jerky motions, hesitations and eye fakes constantly open up enough space for him to torture the opposition with deft passes and accurate shots from the elbows. On defense, this 30-year-old floor general is still difficult to get past in an on-ball setting.
Couple that with a refusal to turn over the rock, and Paul remains one of the most ridiculously efficient players this league has ever seen.
That's not the least bit hyperbolic, either.
Honorable Mention: Blake Griffin
Los Angeles Lakers: Kobe Bryant
14 of 30
Position: SG/SF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 37
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 17.6 PER
For the first time in forever, Kobe Bryant's status as the clear-cut alpha dog on the Los Angeles Lakers is in jeopardy. It surely isn't in the Black Mamba's mind, but his atrocious defense and inefficient shooting have allowed other members of the roster to turn this into a contest.
Could Jordan Clarkson supplant Bryant as the Lake Show's top-ranked member if he continues to prove he's a bona fide stud and not just a player who benefitted from opportunity in 2014-15? Absolutely.
Could Roy Hibbert, who has shown flashes of a working mid-range jumper during preseason action, protect the rim well enough to become the team's most impactful contributor? Sure.
Could a young gun such as D'Angelo Russell or Julius Randle prove to be much further along in their development than anyone could have expected? Without question.
But Bryant is the choice for now, thanks to his unyielding desire to put up points and his ability to serve as a premier facilitator when the situation calls for him to fill such a role. Though he'll no longer play like an All-Star, Bryant is the leader of this team, as well as its top offensive threat.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Clarkson
Memphis Grizzlies: Marc Gasol
15 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.6 blocks, 21.7 PER
Marc Gasol has never put up ginormous numbers, but he doesn't have to. And he doesn't have to post box-score statistics to make an impact.
Defensively, this center is a master of positioning. He's always in the right place at the right time, contesting opportunities that would otherwise have been converted into easy scores, helping out his teammates after their lapses and directing traffic from his spot as the last line of the unit.
Offensively, he can do everything. Whether he's serving as a go-to scorer (which he did more than ever in 2014-15), setting screens to get shooters and cutters open, drawing a defender at an opportune moment or using his passing chops to serve as a hub in head coach Dave Joerger's system, the Memphis Grizzlies are more dangerous when he's involved.
As Rob Mahoney wrote in Sports Illustrated's ranking of the top 100 players for 2015-16, "By nature, Marc Gasol tends to defer—not to any specific teammate, per se, but to the pursuit of the best shot possible."
And for what it's worth, Gasol showed up at No. 9 in that countdown. His highest-ranked teammate, Mike Conley, was at No. 27.
Honorable Mention: Mike Conley
Miami Heat: Chris Bosh
16 of 30
Position: PF/C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 31
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 21.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.6 steals, 19.8 PER
It's entirely conceivable that Dwyane Wade or Goran Dragic could hold down this spot by the end of the upcoming season, even if it is Chris Bosh's to lose as we head into the campaign. You can easily make arguments for any one of the Miami Heat's three lead players.
From a single-game standpoint, Wade might be the best choice. However, it's a virtual certainty he'll miss a significant portion of the year with various injuries and/or rest days, after he sat out a combined 48 games in the last two go-rounds.
That leaves Dragic and Bosh as the two final candidates, and the latter narrowly edges the former, thanks to his multifaceted play. As slithery and effective as the guard may be on the offensive end, he's not a plus on defense. Bosh is, having gradually improved his interior defense ever since leaving the Toronto Raptors in favor of some warmer weather.
Is he a standout stopper? Of course not, given the limitations of his physical profile. But he has improved as a team defender, and his understanding of Erik Spoelstra's schemes earns him the nod.
Honorable Mention: Goran Dragic
Milwaukee Bucks: Greg Monroe
17 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 21.2 PER
As underrated as Khris Middleton may be, Greg Monroe is better right now.
Finally freed from the Detroit Pistons, the 25-year-old big man should thrive as the Milwaukee Bucks' new go-to scorer. He possesses a deft touch around the hoop, and his intelligence working with his back to the basket should be on full display throughout the 2015-16 campaign. Points were hard to come by in Milwaukee last season, but the team didn't have as reliable a scorer as Monroe has previously proved to be.
Lest we forget, this Georgetown product has averaged at least 15 points per game during four of his five seasons in the NBA. For perspective, the Bucks' three leading scorers last year were Brandon Knight (17.9 points per contest before leaving for the Phoenix Suns after 52 appearances), Michael Carter-Williams (14.1 in 25 games) and Middleton (13.4).
It was a long road that led Monroe to Brewtown, but his role in the offense should almost immediately make the destination worth the journey.
Also, don't sleep on Giannis Antetokounmpo exploding and inserting himself in this discussion by the end of the year.
Honorable Mention: Khris Middleton
Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins
18 of 30
Position: SG/SF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 20
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 13.9 PER
As Grant Hughes of Bleacher Report so perfectly explained, the Minnesota Timberwolves now have an ideal support system in place for Andrew Wiggins' continued development:
"KG will also have veterans Tayshaun Prince and Andre Miller to help with Wiggins' ongoing tutorial—though every trend and recent indication suggests Wiggins is getting more aggressive on his own.
The Timberwolves have a historically respected bully, a guy sharp enough to be known as the Professor and one of the last decade's top wing defenders in place to mentor a young talent already showing the physical and mental markers of greatness.
"
Scarily enough, everything seemed to click during the second half of Wiggins' Rookie of the Year campaign. As Hughes broke down in detail, the swingman began attacking the basket with aplomb, trading the inefficient long twos that plagued the first half of his season for assaults on the rim that led to easy buckets and plentiful attempts from the charity stripe.
During his last 15 games, the Kansas product averaged 22.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists while shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 80.7 percent from the line. Most impressively, he was taking double-digit free-throw attempts during his typical outing.
If Wiggins has spent the offseason improving his three-point stroke, the NBA could soon morph into his own personal plaything.
Honorable Mention: Ricky Rubio
New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis
19 of 30
Position: PF/C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.9 blocks, 30.8 PER
Of course it's going to be the 22-year-old MVP candidate coming off a season in which he joined Shaquille O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, Dwyane Wade, David Robinson, LeBron James, Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan as one of eight qualified players in NBA history to post a player efficiency rating in the 30s.
The New Orleans Pelicans' Anthony Davis is basically the model basketball player for this era. Some would argue he's already the No. 1 individual in the league, and yours truly would be one of them.
Though he needs to improve his discipline on the defensive end, his raw tools—the lateral quickness to switch onto anyone, the springs that allow him to elevate multiple times in quick succession, the impossibly long arms and the preternatural timing—already make him one of the Association's premier stoppers. And while he hasn't hit from the outside with consistency yet, his ridiculous combination of volume and efficiency makes him one of the sport's most potent scorers.
Go ahead. Try to find a glaring flaw in Davis' game, other than his ability to stay healthy—an issue that could be remedied after he added even more muscle to his developing frame during the offseason.
But before you start upon that impossible quest, just make sure you've set aside enough time. A full 24-hour period, maybe?
Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday
New York Knicks: Carmelo Anthony
20 of 30
Position: SF/PF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 31
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, 21.5 PER
It's all about perspective.
The New York Knicks improved so much this offseason that they could emerge as the team with the top year-to-year win increase, but that doesn't mean the roster is overflowing with quality contributors. There's very little star power in place here, even if new additions such as Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo represent massive upgrades when compared to some of the fringe NBA players who filled in those spots last year.
In that vein, Carmelo Anthony remains the unquestioned No. 1 player who plies his trade at Madison Square Garden, and it's not even close.
Those Sports Illustrated rankings we referred to earlier? Anthony (No. 15) is 69 spots clear of Lopez, and no other member of the organization earned a spot in the top 100.
Honorable Mention: Robin Lopez
Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant
21 of 30
Position: SF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, 27.6 PER
Let's pretend for a minute.
Instead of Kevin Durant dealing with a recurring foot injury, it was Russell Westbrook who couldn't stay healthy. Would the Oklahoma City Thunder still have missed the playoffs?
Obviously, we'll never know the answer. But it feels safe to assume they would've made it to the first round, considering they found themselves in the lottery only after losing the tiebreaker for the No. 8 seed to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Durant might not put up triple-doubles like Westbrook, but he's still the better player. The league's most talented scorer, he can post gaudy figures in the scoring column without sacrificing a lick of efficiency, thanks to his remarkable accuracy from all areas of the court. Plus, he's become an underrated defender and distributor over the years, as those areas of his game just get overshadowed by his scoring prowess.
According to my FATS model, Westbrook added more value to the OKC cause in 2014-15, but that was primarily because he spent more time on the court. As you can see below, the Thunder were significantly better when Durant was playing:
| Kevin Durant | 57.0 | 38.5 | 18.5 | 4.29 |
| Russell Westbrook | 43.4 | 34.4 | 9.0 | 5.26 |
No offense to Westbrook, but the competition between the two leading OKC stars isn't that close.
Honorable Mention: Russell Westbrook
Orlando Magic: Nikola Vucevic
22 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 19.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, 21.5 PER
Writing for the Orlando Sentinel, Brian Schmitz made it clear that the expectations for Nikola Vucevic are rather high as we head into the 2015-16 season:
"Making the Eastern Conference All-Star roster is the next step for Vucevic, who received consideration last season despite playing on a losing team. Clippers coach Doc Rivers called him All-Star worthy, saying he was "the best player nobody knows."
The Magic want Vooch to keep putting up double-doubles and certainly block more shots. Tobias Harris surpassed Vucevic as the team's highest-paid player. Whether that changes the Harris-Vucevic dynamic will be interesting to monitor.
"
Speaking of Tobias Harris, he's one of a few members of the Orlando Magic who can reasonably provide a challenge to the big man's supremacy. Victor Oladipo is the best bet to do so, however, and we can't rule out charges from Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon, given their youth and upside.
But even if Vucevic doesn't improve whatsoever, his ability to dominate the glass and score in a variety of ways make him the safest bet to continue serving as the leader of this up-and-coming squad. His game is defined by counters, because he's able to take what the defense gives him and find a way to adjust each and every night.
There's also room for improvement. If Vucevic becomes a more consistent presence on the defensive end under new head coach Scott Skiles, rather than continuing his subscription to the Brook Lopez school of rim-protecting immobility, he'll be just about untouchable in this spot.
Honorable Mention: Victor Oladipo
Philadelphia 76ers: Nerlens Noel
23 of 30
Position: PF/C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 21
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.9 blocks, 15.0 PER
If Nerlens Noel had spent the entire season playing like he did during the second half, he may have been the Rookie of the Year favorite. As it turned out, he was an impactful defender from start to finish, and his offense seemed to click a bit more after the All-Star break. With a workable mid-range jumper, he was no longer a complete liability.
But defense is the focus here.
Steals and blocks aren't always indicative of point-preventing ability, but they're still impressive in this case. Throughout NBA history, only seven players had averaged at least 1.8 steals and 1.9 blocks during a qualified season before Noel joined the club as the youngest member. Prior to last season, that honor belonged to Andrei Kirilenko, who earned it during his age-22 season.
Jahlil Okafor could make enough of an immediate impact for the Philadelphia 76ers that he enters this conversation quickly. But it's hard to bet on a rookie serving as a team's best player from Day 1, so this spot is Noel's to lose.
Honorable Mention: Jahlil Okafor
Phoenix Suns: Eric Bledsoe
24 of 30
Position: PG/SG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks, 18.4 PER
Eric Bledsoe is one of the NBA's most overlooked stars. His production vastly outpaces his reputation, which is somewhat surprising give that he spent time as the up-and-coming "Mini LeBron" while he was with the Los Angeles Clippers.
In last year's B/R NBA 200—which looks exclusively at production during the 2014-15 season—the following players were the highest ranked among the Phoenix Suns' current members:
- Eric Bledsoe: No. 19
- Brandon Knight: No. 43
- Tyson Chandler: No. 59
- Markieff Morris: No. 92
Even if Brandon Knight closes the gap a bit, Bledsoe's versatile offensive contributions and ridiculous ability to shut down isolation plays will ensure he holds on to the top spot in the desert.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Knight
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard
25 of 30
Position: PG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 21.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 20.7 PER
This isn't even a competition.
Now that LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are all suiting up for different squads, the Portland Trail Blazers have plunged firmly into rebuilding mode. Damian Lillard is the only incumbent starter left on the roster, and he stands head and shoulders above everyone else set to represent Rip City in 2015-16.
Lillard has made each of the last two All-Star squads, and he's a strong bet to make it a trifecta while shouldering an enormous load for a team that could slip way down the Western Conference standings. In fact, the more interesting debate revolves around who is Portland's second-best player.
The smart money is on Meyers Leonard to emerge as a bona fide starter with massive upside. He's coming off a 50/40/90 campaign in which he protected the rim quite well, and playing time could be the only thing holding him back.
But we can't rule out a plethora of other players, including Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh, C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee.
Honorable Mention: Meyers Leonard
Sacramento Kings: DeMarcus Cousins
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Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 24.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 25.2 PER
"Reachable, man?" DeMarcus Cousins told Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding when asked if the next MVP trophy was in reach. "It's mine to grab."
Though the Sacramento Kings as a whole could prevent him from earning such an impressive individual achievement—even if they improve substantially, it's unlikely they rise to one of the Western Conference's top spots—this idea isn't so far-fetched. If MVP actually meant what it stands for, Cousins would indeed emerge as one of the top candidates.
According to FATS, the Kings played like a 22.8-win squad when their star big man was on the bench. But when he stepped onto the court, they suddenly threatened .500, emerging as a 40.3-win unit.
That's a monumental difference, one indicative of a true MVP candidate.
No one else on the roster can claim anything close.
Honorable Mention: Rudy Gay
San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard
27 of 30
Position: SF
Age at Start of 2015-16: 24
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, 22.0 PER
Take your pick of Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Tim Duncan.
Seriously. Just pick one. No matter which stud you chose, there's a legitimate case to be made that he's currently the best player on the San Antonio Spurs. There are no wrong answers.
However much agony the selection may have caused, Leonard is our choice for a number of reasons.
Duncan should take a backseat role on offense with Aldridge in town, and that hurts him—even if he could handle more touches as he continues to fend off Father Time. As for the new arrival, he's knocked down by the inevitable adjustment period he'll endure at the beginning of the season. And his ball-stopping ways don't fit in perfectly with Gregg Popovich's system, which makes some up-and-down play just about inevitable.
That said, this isn't just about what Duncan and Aldridge can't or won't do. It's also about how ridiculously good Leonard has become.
The young small forward became the rare player who was allowed to improvise in the strict San Antonio offense during the tail end of the 2014-15 season, and throughout the playoffs, he proved exactly why he was afforded such freedom. Not only is Leonard the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, but he's also coming off a postseason in which he averaged 20.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from beyond the arc.
Sure, Leonard is far less established than either of his two star teammates. But that's not relevant here.
Only expected production is.
Honorable Mention: LaMarcus Aldridge
Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry
28 of 30
Position: PG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, 19.3 PER
Yes, it's the time of year when every player seems to be in the best shape of his life. But, as James Herbert of CBS Sports wrote, Kyle Lowry might be the exception to the rule that such weight losses and muscle gains are largely irrelevant:
"Most media day storylines are hogwash, especially when it comes to weight loss. The #MUSCLEWATCH phenomenon is very real, with 85 percent of NBA players supposedly in the best shape of their lives. There is one instance this season, however, where a professional athlete dropping some pounds is legitimate news: Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry looks like he's been preparing for a movie role.
"
Lowry has shed the notion that he's a bad locker room presence. He's completely changed his mentality and attitude toward the sport, which has, in turn, allowed him to cement himself as the franchise point guard for the Toronto Raptors.
Now, he looks more svelte than ever, and that could pay enormous dividends.
Last year, Lowry began the season on a torrid pace before falling back to earth and wearing down as the season progressed. If he can withstand the rigors of the NBA calendar in 2015-16, he'll assert himself as one of the true elites at his position.
Honorable Mention: DeMar DeRozan
Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert
29 of 30
Position: C
Age at Start of 2015-16: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.3 blocks, 21.6 PER
Could Gordon Hayward take this spot? Thanks to his versatility on offense, absolutely.
Could Derrick Favors earn the honor? Despite his underrated status, his success as both a dive man and a defensive stopper lead us to believe he can.
But Rudy Gobert is the man to beat, even if the NBA world as a whole hasn't caught up to how effective he can be.
The 23-year-old is arguably the NBA's best interior defender, rendering anything he does on offense gravy. According to NBA.com's SportVU databases, the French 7-footer held opponents to 40.4 percent shooting at the rim last season.
That's an unbelievably low total. It's so low that not a single player who suited up in more than 20 games and faced at least 3.5 shots at the hoop per contest was able to top it.
The Utah Jazz figure to be Western Conference playoff contenders, and it's Gobert who stands at the center of that charge.
Somewhat shockingly, the organization's wholly internal rebuilding process has produced three All-Star candidates. Good as Hayward and Favors may be, Gobert has emerged as the top dog.
Honorable Mention: Gordon Hayward
Washington Wizards: John Wall
30 of 30
Position: PG
Age at Start of 2015-16: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 19.9 PER
Though it feels like I beat this drum each and every offseason, I'll solider on and try once more: This could finally be the year John Wall joins the exclusive club composed of players who average at least 20 points and 10 assists in the same season.
Only eight players have ever gained entry—none more recently than Chris Paul during the 2008-09 campaign. But Wall certainly has the tools necessary to make it nine.
So long as his shooting stroke gets a bit better, he's capable of continuing to improve as a scorer. Even without that important tool, his quickness in the open court is great enough to allow him a lane to the rim from virtually any angle. The threat of a consistent pull-up jumper would only make defenders' lives more miserable.
Wall is already close to the necessary mark in the scoring column, and he's coming off a year in which he averaged double-digit dimes. Give him a bit more scoring responsibility in the Washington Wizards' offensive flow—something that's very possible as Marcin Gortat and Nene continue to move further past their primes—and he could make history.
Honorable Mention: Bradley Beal
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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