Thunder 2015-16 Schedule: Top Games, Championship Odds and Record Predictions
The Oklahoma City Thunder were a postseason staple in the Western Conference prior to last year's injury-marred season. Things are looking up for the franchise heading into 2015-16, though there were minimal changes to the roster.
Hiring Billy Donovan as head coach in April was the biggest move made by the Thunder. The former Florida coach is inheriting one of the NBA's best rosters, led by former MVP Kevin Durant and last year's MVP contender Russell Westbrook.
Durant's health will be the focus of everyone's attention when Oklahoma City opens training camp. The 26-year-old played just 27 games last season due to lingering foot problems that required three different surgeries.
ESPN.com's Royce Young did provide positive historic results for the procedure Durant underwent in March:
Big men and foot problems are usually a recipe for disaster. Joel Embiid's career with Philadelphia has yet to get started because of his lingering foot problems.
Durant gave nervous Oklahoma City fans reassurances during the summer league, saying his expectation is to be fully cleared in August, per Young.
"We're doing X-rays every two weeks, and it's looking good," Durant said. "So I'm excited to get back, man. There's no pain, and looking forward to getting back."
Having Durant play alongside Westbrook completely changes the dynamic for the Thunder. They still won 45 games last season despite not having their best player for three-quarters of the year and losing Serge Ibaka for the final 18 games.
The oddsmakers are banking on big things from the Thunder in 2015-16, as Odds Shark lists them as having the fourth-best title odds at 17-2. The only teams ahead of them are the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers (11-4), the new-look San Antonio Spurs (3-1) and defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors (11-2).
This is an important season for Durant and the Thunder. He's an impending free agent who could become the source of the NBA's greatest bidding war, which makes this potentially the final year Oklahoma City's title window remains open.
The Thunder have only reached the NBA Finals once with Durant, back in 2012 before losing to Miami in five games.
With so much at stake for the franchise, it's time to look at the matchups that will define where it ends up by season's end. Their full schedule can be viewed here.
Analyzing Marquee Matchups
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
When: Wednesday, Oct. 28, 7 p.m. ET; Saturday, Mar. 12, 7:30 p.m. ET; Saturday, Mar. 26, 7 p.m. ET; Tuesday, Apr. 12, 7 p.m. ET
With respect to Golden State, which will be in the title mix once again, every team in the Western Conference this season will be judged by how they play against the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs dipped their toe into the big-time free-agent waters for the first time during the Gregg Popovich era, signing LaMarcus Aldridge to a max contract. That came after re-signing Kawhi Leonard to a max deal of his own.
As San Antonio's transition from the era of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to Aldridge and Leonard begins, that aging trio has no designs on going out with a whimper.
Prior to last season, the Thunder and Spurs met in the Western Conference Finals twice over the previous three years.
| 2011-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19); San Antonio Spurs (50-16) | Thunder def. Spurs, 4-2 | Heat def. Thunder, 4-1 |
| 2013-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23); San Antonio Spurs (62-20) | Spurs def. Thunder, 4-2 | Spurs def. Heat, 4-1 |
There's little doubt that Oklahoma City will be a playoff team again. In fact, with Aldridge leaving Portland, there's no reason to think the Thunder won't run away with the Northwest Division.
Berry Tramel of the Oklahoman wrote about what Oklahoma City's quest for a fifth division title in six years will entail:
"A guaranteed four games a year against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets, the TrailBlazers and the Jazz. Minnesota might get competitive soon but hasn’t been for a decade. Denver has fallen off the edge of relevancy. Portland has gone into total rebuild mode. Utah is getting better and might contend for a playoff spot this season.
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None of those games will test what the Thunder are capable of doing. The best barometer of success is playing well and defeating the best. The Spurs have been the exemplar franchise in the NBA for nearly two decades.
Even though the true measure of how far Oklahoma City has climbed since last season's disappointing run won't come until the postseason, regular-season tuneups against the Spurs will be critical for this franchise.
Oklahoma City vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
When: Thursday, Dec. 17, 7 p.m. ET; Sunday, Feb. 21, 2:30 p.m. ET
Even with the emergence of Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis last season, there's still a valid argument that Durant and LeBron James are the NBA's two best players when healthy.
In the 27 games he played last season, Durant was a monster averaging 25.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He also shot 51 percent overall and 40.3 percent from three-point range.
Using advanced stats from Basketball-Reference.com, the only seasons Durant posted better numbers than 2014-15 were the previous two:
| True Shooting % | 63.3 | 2013-14 | 60.1 |
| Player Efficiency Rating (PER) | 27.6 | 2013-14 | 24.7 |
| Win Shares per 48 Minutes | .252 | 2013-14 | .207 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 6.1 | 2013-14 | 4.5 |
As appealing as the individual matchup of Durant vs. James is, the Cavaliers' ability to reshape their roster over the last year has turned this battle into something else entirely.
Two of the league's most dynamic offensive weapons will lock horns when Westbrook and Kyrie Irving suit up at point guard. Both teams also have very strong third options who play different roles with Enes Kanter being Oklahoma City's presence in the paint and Kevin Love being good for a double-double each night.
With the Thunder and Spurs possibly serving as a Western Conference Finals preview, the Thunder vs. Cavaliers could provide a snapshot of the NBA Finals. James got the better of Oklahoma City during his time with the Heat.
There's no doubt that Cleveland's road to the Finals as an Eastern Conference contender is easier than what Oklahoma City will face out west, but both teams are equipped to do big things this season. That's what makes this interconference showdown so appealing.
It also helps having so much star power on the court.
Record Prediction
If you follow patterns, there's a very clear area where the Thunder have been when their stars have played full seasons. From 2009-13, they increased their winning percentage from .610 to .732 before "falling" back to .720 in 2013-14.
The Thunder's 45 wins last season playing in the Western Conference speak to how talented the roster is, even without Durant, and why the window of title contention remains wide open heading into 2015-16.
Donovan will have a learning curve as a new NBA head coach. His college career was a long string of postseason disappointments before finally breaking through with back-to-back titles in 2006-07. Florida lost in the tournament's first weekend five consecutive years from 2001-05, including three times as a top-four seed.
Now, Donovan is walking into a perfect situation for a rookie head coach. He's got two of the NBA's best players and excellent role players like Ibaka and Kanter. He can get away with a lot more growing pains on the sidelines because of that talent.
In many ways, Donovan will be this year's version of David Blatt. He's entering the NBA with a more well-known pedigree, but his only role is to not screw up what should be an easy gig. Some coaches can add to a talented roster, a la Steve Kerr with Golden State last season.
Time will tell what course Donovan's NBA coaching career takes, but there's no reason the Thunder shouldn't win at least 55 games with a full roster.
Regular-season record prediction: 56-26
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