Are NY Knicks the Last Chance for Former No. 2 Pick Derrick Williams?

It's been a typically unpredictable, underwhelming offseason for the New York Knicks, but reconstructing a 17-win team requires some wagering on high-upside players, and the acquisition of former No. 2 pick Derrick Williams falls squarely into that category.

After handing a surprising chunk of change to a 24-year-old who is widely considered a draft bust—SI.com labeled the two-year deal worth $10 million "curious"—the Knicks hope they can finally maximize the potential of the athletic combo forward who has yet to find the right fit in the NBA. And if Williams can't work himself into being at least a meaningful contributor in this rotation, his future as a pro will grow gloomy indeed.

Untapped Potential

Williams was the 2011 Pac-10 Player of the Year at Arizona, and his draft stock rose even higher after his Sweet 16 heroics in the NCAA tournament, coming up with a career-high 32 points plus 13 boards to help 'Zona edge top-seeded Duke.

His versatility and athleticism prompted the Minnesota Timberwolves to pounce on him with the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft. Four seasons later, Williams just joined his third team and has yet to prove himself worthy of his draft position.

Williams can throw down stunning dunks like this embarrassment of Bismack Biyombo from last season, but he's failed to develop a rounded skill set to match his athleticism and seems caught in limbo as a 6'8" tweener forward. Ambitiously, the Knicks coaching staff hopes to suddenly help Williams realize his potential.

Knicks president Phil Jackson and sophomore head coach Derek Fisher will persist in trying to form a triangle offense out of the current jigsaw puzzle.

Williams' most recent head coach with the Sacramento Kings, George Karl, expressed optimism that Williams will fit with the Knicks' system, telling the New York Post's Marc Berman: "I think he’s caught between a 4 and a 3, but the triangle can be good for him. He has explosive athletic talent. He’s big, strong, can run and score." However, the Knicks have yet to prove that their triangle can be good for anybody. 

And yet, the team sounds irrationally hopeful that Williams is primed for a breakout season based primarily on his athleticism. As Knicks general manager Steve Mills told Berman:

"

I really hope that Derrick Williams comes as a surprise because he’s a guy that, as we went through the interview process, we understood he played multiple sports, baseball, football, and basketball growing up.

In ninth grade, he grew from 6'0" to 6'6", and that’s when he really started to play organized basketball that year and AAU. So this guy has an incredible body, has some really nice athletic ability, and just hasn’t been playing basketball all that long.

"

Though the current NBA has trended away from static positions, thereby increasing opportunities for tweeners like Williams, he's remained stuck in the middle. His principal shortcomings have thus far included unimpressive shooting, subpar defense and ghostly rebounding. 

Rocky Widner/Getty Images

Assessing Williams' shooting first, the ability to create and convert open jump shots remains a cornerstone of the triangle offense. Williams has shot 30.1 percent from three-point range in his career, and he connected on roughly 35 percent of his two-pointers beyond 10 feet, per Basketball Reference.com. He'll have to bank on making plenty of backdoor cuts, as more than half of his two-point attempts last season came at the rim, where he converted 69.6 percent, but he shot just 31.1 percent from a range of three to 10 feet.

And offense is the strongest aspect of Williams' game.

When it comes to defense, with Williams on the court last season, the Kings' opponents scored 5.2 points per 100 possessions more than when he sat on the bench. Sactown Royalty's Greg Wissinger described Williams' defense:

Perhaps that is due to plays like this, where Williams shows little esteem for the defensive end.

Regarding his game on the boards, Karl offered a quip after Williams turned in a zero-rebound performance in April, saying (via ESPN's Ian Begley): "You shouldn't be playing 20 minutes a game and not get a rebound. I mean, the Coke machine can get a rebound some nights."

While the league does not record rebounding stats for vending machines, Williams clocked in with a rebounding rate of 7.7 percent last season, which ranked 109th among the 135 forwards who played at least 60 games, per NBA.com. That's slightly worse than Wesley Johnson and 35-year-old Richard Jefferson.

Overall, Williams' track record and development are not encouraging.

He made All-Rookie Second Team in 2011-12, though MarShon Brooks received more votes. Williams' sophomore season with Minnesota in 2012-13 was his finest campaign to date, when he logged 24.6 minutes per game and averaged 7.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com. However, those numbers were inflated by the absence of Kevin Love, who played only 18 games that season due to hand and knee injuries, and Williams still ceded plenty of playing time to veterans Andrei Kirilenko and Dante Cunningham that year.

In short, Williams has had his opportunities to show the full measure of his talent and carve out major minutes on poor teams, but he has failed to distinguish himself so far.

Environmental Concerns

The NBA can be a slow burn, and some players gradually round into form through learning and hard work—just look at Tristan Thompson, selected two picks after Williams, who posted a breakout postseason this spring—while others finally flourish once they find the right environment.

For a promising prospect like Williams, four years should be sufficient to prove himself, but it didn't pan out with the T-Wolves or Kings, and the Knicks have seldom shown they can maximize raw potential.

Ben Margot/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

The Knicks think that Williams' paucity of experience with organized basketball (only about 10 years) is a virtue. But two other second-overall picks from the past 10 years offer a cautionary tale: Marvin Williams, drafted in 2005, and 2008 draftee Michael Beasley.

Both of them brimmed with potential but saw middling success during their rookie contracts, and then their production steadily declined after their fourth season. Both had more success than Derrick Williams, who would be lucky to put up Marvin's numbers. Beasley just saw the Miami Heat decline his $1.3 million option. By contrast, 6'7" combo forward Draymond Green, the 35th pick in the 2012 draft, recently re-signed with the Golden State Warriors for five years and $85 million following his third season. 

After striking out with the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Monroe, the Knicks had to compromise and take some chances this offseason, but it's odd that they inked Williams to such a hefty deal. Berman called it "the most puzzling move of summer" and pointed out that "most NBA observers figured Williams would be heading for the minimum" instead of $10 million over two years (with a player option).

The Knicks seem to have overpaid considering the general lack of competing bids, and the wager hinges on Williams' ever-present potential and athleticism entering his fifth season. But if he can't demonstrate success as a Knickerbocker, his best hope will likely be whittled down to minimum contracts after six seasons of disappointment.

For his part, Williams sees a promising transition ahead despite going from the dysfunctional Kings to the dysfunctional Knicks. As he told Berman:

"

I had three coaches in one year. I don’t know if that’s happened in the NBA. It was crazy. Three different strategies. Three different defensive schemes. Sometimes it does get tough when you don’t know what’s going to happen next. You don’t know what I was going through my first four years. But we’re starting all over.

Phil really wants to start this over and get back to the top, getting pieces around Carmelo and drive off that. ... I just got to keep growing. I want to learn from the best basketball mind there is. That’s the only way you’ll get better.

"

However, Williams is joining a Knicks team with a spotty record of fostering young talent. Iman Shumpert searched for consistency throughout his time in New York and then promptly blossomed following a trade to a competitive environment with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Tim Hardaway Jr. regressed in his second season, and the Knicks were delighted to unload him in a trade to the Atlanta Hawks for rookie point guard Jerian Grant. 

Additionally, the Knicks did not add any significant veteran leadership in free agency to help guide a player like Williams. Though the two primary signings certainly bolstered the starting lineup, Robin Lopez beats up mascots, and Arron Afflalo's claim to fame stems from nearly making the All-Star team. Mentoring Williams could very well end up as another task on Carmelo Anthony's long to-do list.

NBA Photos/Getty Images

This season will serve as a referendum on the Knicks in general and on Williams in particular. If he's an orange-and-blue bust, it will have a ripple effect on the payroll, win-loss record and 2016 crop of free agents. 

This is Jackson's chance to prove he can build something approaching a playoff contender and Fisher's chance to prove he can be an NBA head coach by improving on last year's 17-win debacle in his rookie campaign. Molding Williams into an effective contributor would mark a major success, but beyond hopeful optimism, there's little reason to think the Knicks can capitalize on Williams' chief asset: potential.