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Predicting Every NFL Division's Standings for 2026 Season Ahead of Preseason Week 1
The first full week of the NFL preseason is another checkpoint on the offseason calendar. Adjust your regular-season expectations accordingly.
Since the beginning of training camp, we have more intel on notable injuries and key position battles. Teams have also made moves to fill leftover roster needs.
The NFC South has been hit hard with injuries. The Washington Commanders signed wide receiver Stefon Diggs. We have some clarity on the biggest quarterback battles.
The latest buzz around the league has moved the needle for win-loss projections. So, here are the latest record predictions for each team by divisionโall 272 wins and losses.
AFC East
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Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Buffalo elevated Joe Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach. So expect the team's high-powered offense to continue its scoring flurries with wideout DJ Moore in the mix. The Bills will need time to establish a defensive identity under first-year play-caller Jim Leonhard. That said, they have the veteran talent to field a stingy unit with the addition of edge-rusher Bradley Chubb and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson joining the No. 1 pass defense from last season. The Bills must figure out how to stop the run, but they're the best team in the AFC East.
New England Patriots: 10-7
The Patriots made a post-June 1 trade splash with the addition of wide receiver A.J. Brown. They signed wideout Romeo Doubs early in free agency. Third-year quarterback Drake Maye will take another developmental leap after a close loss to Matthew Stafford in the 2025 MVP race. On the flip side, New England will play a much tougher schedule than it did last season. The Patriots win their final regular-season game to punch a ticket to the playoffs.
New York Jets: 5-12
The Jets' record has trended in the wrong direction over the last three years. The good news is they'll top their win total from last season. Gang Green should see more offensive production with quarterback Geno Smith in his second stint with the club. However, as we saw in the previous campaign, he's prone to turnovers. The Jets won't be able to overcome those mistakes playing against NFC North and AFC West opponents on a brutal schedule.ย
Miami Dolphins: 2-15
The Dolphins will be in competition with the Arizona Cardinals for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 draft. Miami is a rebuilding squad without a proven go-to receiver and inexperience across its secondary. First-year head coach Jeff Hafley will go through a rough season in a developmental year for his young roster. With one of the league's weakest supporting casts, Malik Willis may not be able to do enough to keep the Dolphins' eyes off 2027 quarterback prospects.
AFC North
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Baltimore Ravens: 12-5
The Ravens won't play a postseason team from the previous campaign until they go on the road to Buffalo in Week 8. Three of Baltimore's first seven games are against NFC opponents, teams that don't game plan for Lamar Jackson's athletic playmaking ability every year. The Ravens should start the season on a hot streak, giving them enough cushion to claim the division title despite a tough late-season stretch.
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
Like the Ravens, the Bengals will benefit from a favorable schedule. They'll match up against the AFC South and NFC South. Although the AFC South had two playoff teams in the previous campaign, Cincinnati beat one of them, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bengals get the Jaguars at home again in Week 4. If quarterback Joe Burrow stays healthy, Cincinnati gets back to the playoffs with some help from an improved defensive front led by newcomers Dexter Lawrence II and Jonathan Allen.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
Pittsburgh hired a proven head coach in Mike McCarthy to replace Mike Tomlin, who stepped down at the end of the 2025 term. In 18 seasons, McCarthy's teams have won 61 percent of their games. The Steelers won't bottom out on his watch, though there's some concern about a roster with several key players older than 30. At 42, Aaron Rodgers can still perform at a high level, but he needs more from his defense, which ranked 17th in scoring and 26th in total yards last season. Newcomers Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker must shore up the secondary.
Cleveland Browns: 3-14
The Browns will be an interesting watch through the 2026 season. They won't win a lot of games, though. Regardless of who wins the quarterback battle between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, the signal-caller will need time to build a rapport with rookie receivers, KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. He'll also play behind an entirely new offensive line. The Browns traded edge-rusher Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams, which is a significant blow to their pass rush and ability to win low-scoring games. Cleveland will size up quarterback prospects in the 2027 class after a three-win season.
AFC South
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Houston Texans: 13-4
The Texans are led by defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans, who's a former linebacker, and his unit has star power and quality depth on all three levels. Two-time All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. and Pro Bowler Calen Bullock are in the secondary. Pro Bowl linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is in the middle. Five-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter and All-Pro Will Anderson Jr. bookend the front line. C.J. Stroud won't have to post gaudy passing numbers to lead his team to victories with that defense. Houston bullies its way to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8
In 2025, Jacksonville emerged as one of the biggest surprises and won the AFC South with the second-best record in franchise history (13-4). The Jaguars will open the season with a tough slate, facing playoff teams from the previous campaign in four of their first six games. The club will also play the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers and Texans in a three-game stretch (two on the road) between Weeks 13 and 15. Trevor Lawrence finished the previous season with a 60.9 percent completion rate; his accuracy could be an issue this year. The Jaguars regress but avoid a losing season.
Tennessee Titans: 7-10
Head coach Robert Saleh will call plays for the defense, and former New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll will lead the offense. Both have solid resumes as coordinators. Several Titans defenders played under Saleh in the past. The Titans signed former Giants wideout Wan'Dale Robinson, who broke out in Daboll's system last year. Quarterback Cam Ward should make strides with rookie wideout Carnell Tate and Robinson in the aerial attack, but his pass protection is a big question mark. Offensive tackles Dan Moore Jr. (eight) and JC Latham (eight) allowed 16 sacks combined last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Indianapolis Colts: 5-12
Quarterback Daniel Jones hasn't been able to put together solid back-to-back campaigns in seven seasons because of injuries or subpar play. Coming off a torn Achilles, he's back on the practice field without restrictions, but the Colts should be concerned about his career inconsistencies. Keep in mind that top wideout Alec Pierce is still on the mend from ankle surgery.ย By the way, Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's defenses have ranked 21st or worse for three consecutive seasons.
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AFC West
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Denver Broncos: 11-6
In 2025, Denver went 11-2 in one-score games, tying an NFL record for victories in such circumstances. The Broncos won't win that many contests by the skin of their teeth again, but they may not need to with a stacked roster. Denver returns its starting offensive line that includes All-Pros Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz. The club added explosive receiver Jaylen Waddle from the Miami Dolphins. Defensively, the Broncos will have a stout and stingy unit with mostly the same players from last year's third-ranked scoring group. Denver wins another division title.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-7
The Chiefs will be a popular pick to bounce back from a losing season. Coming off a torn ACL, Patrick Mahomes is a full-go at practice. Travis Kelce is back for his 14th season. Kansas City signed running back Kenneth Walker to take some of the offensive load off Mahomes' arm. Mahomes may need some time to get back to himself coming off a serious knee injury, but he'll have time to ramp up on a third-place schedule. After a home opener in Denver, Kansas City will face three sub-.500 teams from the previous season and then go on a bye week. The Chiefs get to 10 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
New Chargers play-caller Mike McDaniel will refresh the offense with multi-tight-end sets and multiple running backs in the backfield, but the Chargers have a brutal stretch between Weeks 3 and 10. In that span, they'll face five playoff teams from the previous campaign, the Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, who hired their defensive coordinator. And with a first-time defensive play-caller, this club could lose some heartbreaking high-scoring games that may factor into playoff tiebreakers.
Las Vegas Raiders: 5-12
New Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak brings a breath of fresh air to the desert with his offensive expertise. Three-time Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum will strengthen the front line. All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers is healthy after missing five games last season. Maxx Crosby is back with Silver and Black after the Baltimore Ravens backed out of a trade for him. While that all sounds good, Kirk Cousins will likely start the season under center. Las Vegas has a challenging schedule with games against the NFC West, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots in addition to tough division battles. Cousins starts the season, and rookie Fernando Mendoza finishes it, taking some lumps in the process.
NFC East
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Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
The Cowboys hired a new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker. Dallas acquired edge-rusher Rashan Gary from the Green Bay Packers and drafted versatile defensive back Caleb Downs along with edge-rusher Malachi Lawrence in the first round. Cornerback Cobie Durant, a free-agent acquisition, is an underrated signing. If linebacker DeMarvion Overshown stays healthy, the Cowboys' defense will be one of the most improved units from the previous campaign. Dak Prescott and his offensive playmakers get some help from the other side of the ball in a division-winning season.
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-7
With new offensive play-caller Sean Mannion, quarterback Jalen Hurts must adjust to a new-look receiver group after the team traded A.J. Brown. He'll likely rely on DeVonta Smith while building a rapport with rookie first-rounder Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. Philadelphia's aerial may be less explosive without Brown, but running back Saquon Barkley and a stingy defense can get this team some wins until the offense figures itself out.ย
Washington Commanders: 8-9
Early in the season, Washington may be led by its revamped defense. The Commanders signed Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson to shore up their pass rush. They also added rookie first-rounder Sonny Styles, nose tackle Tim Settle, and linebacker Leo Chenal to strengthen their front seven. Still, this team's fate will be dictated by Jayden Daniels' development. He'll make plays to Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, but he could be under constant duress without five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil.
New York Giants: 7-10
Thus far, the Giants' offense has struggled at training camp. Given offensive coordinator Matt Nagy's mediocre play-calling resume, it all makes sense. In three out of four years as the Chicago Bears' primary play-caller, his offenses ranked 22nd or worse in scoring and 24th or worse in total yards. He has a dynamic quarterback in Jaxson Dart, but the young signal-caller must learn to protect himself in a run-first offense. Wideout Malik Nabers may need time to get back to 100 percent coming off a torn ACL. The Giants have too many offensive question marks to feel good about their season outlook.
NFC North
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Detroit Lions: 11-6
As the Arizona Cardinals' play-caller, new Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing fielded the 12th-ranked scoring offense in 2024. He helped Trey McBride emerge as a premier pass-catching tight end. With Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and a healthy Sam LaPorta, the Lions should field another high-scoring offense. On the other side of the ball, defensive backs Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph could be back on the field in the near future. The Lions will play indoors for all but one game between Weeks 5 and 16. They're going to win several high-scoring battles.
Chicago Bears: 10-7
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, safety Coby Bryant underwent knee surgery and will miss four to six months. Also, Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times reported that the Bears aren't expected to fill a need at defensive end. Chicago's defense has question marks, but the club finished 23rd in points allowed, gave up the fourth-most yards and still won the division last season. You can mark a Ben Johnson-led offense down for top 10 in scoring, which will offset some of the issues on the other side of the ball. Chicago has earned the benefit of the doubt, but it has little margin for error.
Minnesota Vikings: 9-8
As the Vikings' starting quarterback, Kyler Murray has a chance to write his redemption story in Minnesota as Sam Darnold did two years ago. If Murray stays healthy, he could post career numbers with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as his cast of receivers. Play-caller Brian Flores molded the Vikings defense into a top-10 unit in scoring and total yards. This team has the balance, but Murray's injury history raises concerns. Since 2021, he's only played one full season. We may see McCarthy start a few games, and those will be losses.
Green Bay Packers: 9-8
The Packers could have a slow start to the season without Micah Parsons, who's recovering from a torn ACL and damage to his meniscus. Between Weeks 5 and 7, Green Bay will face the Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Lions, three teams that finished within the top 10 in scoring last year. Even if Parsons is back on the field in early October, he may not take on a full workload for a few games. Green Bay has a suspect cornerback group that needs Parsons' pass rush to neutralize aerial attacks. A rocky start will cost the Packers a playoff spot.
NFC South
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New Orleans Saints: 9-8
Saints lead skipper Kellen Moore will put himself in the conversation among the league's ascending play-calling head coaches with the new additions to his offense. The Saints signed running back Travis Etienne Jr. and drafted wideout Jordyn Tyson in the first round. Both will be strong contributors for a blossoming offense under a proven play-caller. Edge-rushers Cameron Jordan and Chase Young will lead a respectable defense that makes timely stops. The Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18 for the NFC South title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9
This offseason, Tampa Bay lost leadership on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Lavonte David retired, and wide receiver Mike Evans signed with the San Francisco 49ers. Baker Mayfield will show (again) why he's a franchise quarterback in a contract year, but he'll lose several scoring shootouts. Under play-calling head coach Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers defense has ranked 16th or worse in total yards and scoring in back-to-back seasons. Keep in mind that the team is in a contract dispute with nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay remains stagnant under .500.
Carolina Panthers: 7-10
The Panthers are headed for significant regression. In 2025, they lost three of their last four regular-season games but still clinched a playoff berth with an 8-9 record. The NFC South is still a weak division, but one of these teams (the Saints) will finish above .500. There's a reason Carolina is hesitant to give quarterback Bryce Young an extension; he barely eclipsed 3,000 passing yards last season. Between Weeks 8 and 11 against the Green Bay Packers (on short rest), Denver Broncos, Saints and Baltimore Ravens, this team will fall apart on a losing streak.
Atlanta Falcons: 5-12
Atlanta won't be able to slow down opponents without a respectable pass rush. According to Josh Kendall of The Athletic, James Pearce Jr. is facing charges that include aggravated battery with a deadly weapon, fleeing police and resisting an officer with violence. Kendall reported that the NFL is likely to suspend Pearce while the matter is pending. Last week, fellow edge-rusher Jalon Walker tore his ACL. If Tua Tagovailoa wins the starting quarterback job over Michael Penix Jr., who's still on the mend from knee surgery, he'll need another 4,600-plus-yard passing season to keep this team out of the NFC South basement.
NFC West
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Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
Rams head coach Sean McVay told ESPN's Sarah Barshop that Aaron Donald's "arrow" for return from retirement is "trending up." If the three-time Defensive Player of the Year rejoins the team, he'll line up alongside the league's best pass-rusher, Myles Garrett, on a star-studded defensive line. Los Angeles will have the defense to complement an offense led by reigning MVP Matthew Stafford that racked up the most points and yards last season. The Rams should be the favorite to finish with the NFC's best record this year.
Seattle Seahawks: 11-6
The reigning Super Bowl champions should make it back to the playoffs with resurgent starter Sam Darnold at the helm. However, Darnold lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the team's 10th-ranked rushing attack from the previous season lost lead running back Kenneth Walker and may be without running back Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL) for multiple weeks. The Seahawks defense is equipped to win games, and it may need to do so early with question marks on offense.
San Francisco 49ers: 9-8
The 49ers haven't played a preseason game, and they have a rash of injuries at wide receiver. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Mike Evans has a "minor" quad strain. Christian Kirk is dealing with a calf strain. The team placed Ricky Pearsall on season-ending injured reserve. The 49ers may be relying heavily on Christian McCaffrey, which is a dicey proposition given the wear and tear on his body. Also, Nick Bosa is dealing with tendinitis in his surgically-repaired knee. This team's health will be the story of the season. The 49ers have enough talent to stay above .500, but they miss the playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals: 2-15
If you squint your eyes, you may be able to see a couple of wins on the Cardinals' schedule. In arguably the toughest division, they're going into the season with journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett as their starter. He'll likely finish the season on the sideline if the losses pile up. Don't be surprised if the team trades disgruntled pass-rusher Josh Sweat before the deadline. Arizona will have a top-three pick in the 2027 draft. Book it.
Playoff Seeding
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AFC
1. Houston Texans (13-4)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-5)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Denver Broncos (11-6)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)
7. New England Patriots (10-7)
NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams (13-4)
2. Detroit Lions (11-6)
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
4. New Orleans Saints (9-8)
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-6)
6. Chicago Bears (10-7)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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