Signing Arron Afflalo Is a Start, but New York Knicks Have a Long Way to Go
The bass was pumping, fat stacks of cash were being thrown around, people were getting lots of action, but the New York Knicks weren't getting any play. Finally, they scored shooting guard Arron Afflalo early this morning. Nice start, but still a long way from a team.
Young center-forward Greg Monroe just signed with the Milwaukee Bucks, despite rumors flying for months that he would come to New York. An unnamed league executive once told the Daily News' Frank Isola that was "as close to a done deal as you can get." Yet, Monroe's agent said that the Knicks offered the max but Monroe "wanted a playoff team," per Isola. Thus, the Bucks landed him with a three-year, $50 million contract (the third year is a player option), according to ESPN's Chris Broussard.
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I am among those who said that Monroe might not be worth a max contract, particularly at a time when the Knicks have more than half a roster to fill and only about $27 million with which to fill it. Yet seeing Monroe go still gets some butterflies flapping around in my gut, because the list of no-longer-free agents is growing fast.
The list includes both the hottest stars and the attractive role players who've just landed themselves star salaries. If the Knicks miss out on their other top targets, their Plan B options are quickly dwindling.
The Knicks are also stuck in the middle of trying to do a rebuild and trying to make the most of the 31-year-old star Carmelo Anthony whom they still owe $75 million to.
If the Knicks are truly rebuilding, Afflalo can hardly be considered part of it, because he only signed a two-year ($16 million) deal, as reported by ESPN's Ramona Shelburne. If the team wants to make anyone in the 2015 free agent market part of the long-term future with draftee-project Kristaps Porzingis, who won't be NBA-ready for two to three seasons, they need to close more deals soon.
Who's left for the Knicks to bring home to New York, and what should they do if they lose out?
Who's off the table
As for big-men re-signings, Kevin Love's somewhat surprising commitment to the Cleveland Cavaliers—a five-year, roughly $110 million max contract—will get most of the attention. Yet, from a New York perspective, the bigger big-man news is that Paul Millsap re-signed with the Atlanta Hawks and Draymond Green stayed with the Golden State Warriors.
Some of the Knicks' outside options for the frontcourt have begun finding new homes. Tyson Chandler and Al-Farouq Aminu both left the Dallas Mavericks; Chandler for the Phoenix Suns and Aminu for the Portland Trail Blazers. Amir Johnson left the Toronto Raptors for the Boston Celtics. Brandan Wright heads to the Memphis Grizzlies after playing for three teams last season.
The best small forwards and swingmen are now spoken for or soon to spoken for. So any plans to slide Carmelo Anthony back over to the 4 spot had better involve calling up Thanasis Antetokounmpo from the D-League.
Kawhi Leonard, of course, re-signed with the San Antonio Spurs, as did Danny Green. DeMarre Carroll left the Hawks and signed with the Raptors. Khris Middleton re-signed with the Milwaukee Bucks for an outlandish five-year, $70 million deal. Mike Dunleavy re-signed with the Chicago Bulls and Iman Shumpert with the Cavaliers. Even Paul Pierce got a three-year contract from the Los Angeles Clippers.
That's not all. Jimmy Butler, of course, re-signed with the Bulls and Goran Dragic with the Miami Heat. The Suns held onto Brandon Knight.
Who's left
So far, none of the fine gentlemen (and other guys) who wore Knicks jerseys last season have been signed in free agency. So Cole Aldrich, Lou Amundson, Lance Thomas, Jason Smith, Shane Larkin, Alexey Shved, Quincy Acy, Travis Wear, and (whimper) Andrea Bargnani are all up for grabs. According to ESPN's Ian Begley, the Knicks have already reached out to Thomas, and Phil Jackson certainly owes a call to Aldrich and Amundson.
According to USA Today's Sam Amick, LaMarcus Aldridge is waiting to make a decision until he hears what the Knicks have to say when the team meets with him Thursday. So Aldridge is still a possibility, albeit a slim, exceptionally expensive possibility, that's perhaps too similar to Carmelo Anthony to merit paying both of them that money. Yet, according to Amick, the San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns seem to be the front-runners for Aldridge.
Other options in the frontcourt who've left the door open are flashy stud DeAndre Jordan, wild-haired defensive center Robin Lopez, veteran bulldog forward David West, and young small forward Tobias Harris, a local kid and friend of Carmelo Anthony who is a restricted free agent with the Orlando Magic.
DeAndre Jordan is meeting with the Knicks, but according to Bleacher Report's Jared Zwerling, it's a "50/50" split between staying with the Clippers or becoming a Maverick.
Despite earlier reports that David West was likely to become a Knick, West's own comments don't inspire much confidence. West told Bob Kravitz of WTHR Sports Wednesday night that his key reason for opting out of the last year of his contract with the Pacers was that he didn't think he could win a championship in Indiana in the near future. "At this point in my career, I just want to win," West said. That's not something Phil Jackson can promise in his sales pitch.
Earlier this season, the Magic said they would match offers for Harris, but the price may be getting too high. Last week, Shams Charania of RealGM reported that Harris is pursuing a max contract, making the Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics the front-runners for him. However, Boston pulled out of the race for Harris Wednesday night, citing that Orlando would match big offers, per the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett, despite a report Tuesday night by the Boston Globe's Gary Washburn that Orlando said they would not match a max offer.
This could mean that the Pistons will have Harris easily, or it could mean that Harris overvalued himself in the market. One thing is certain though: if the Knicks declined to give the max to Monroe—who has more experience and would have served more of the Knicks' needs—they're highly unlikely to offer it to Harris.
Lopez met with both the Knicks and the Bucks Wednesday, and teams that miss out on Aldridge, Jordan and Monroe "will join pursuit too," according to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne.
Lopez would be an excellent option for the Knicks. He will likely come at a better price—although that might be expecting too much considering the way money's being thrown around right now. He's a big energy guy, both in personality and athleticism. He can give the Knicks the defense and rim protection they've so desperately been needing, while also being able to keep up a fast-paced offense.
As for the backcourt, the Knicks may be looking at Jeremy Lin to join Afflalo. However it seems likelier that Jackson will call back Shved, or maybe Larkin if he needs any point guards.
What's next?
It's not quite time for Knicks fans to panic.
For starters, Afflalo is a solid addition. He's got the experience to help guide a crop of young players. He's been a bit hot and cold as he moved from team to team the past two seasons, but if he matches his numbers from Portland, he'll at least satisfy those people who crave three-pointers. He shot 40 percent from downtown, and 42.3 percent from the field, which is more reliable than anyone else the Knicks have had at the 2 spot recently.
If the Knicks can land Lopez, Harris and Afflalo and build a bench from last year's core, that's a marked improvement. Although there are certainly reasons these players would steer clear of New York:
Until the salary cap goes up, the Knicks have too many empty roster spots to "make it rain" for every free agent. They are not a championship contender and have a long way to go before they are. Drafting Kristaps Porzingis, a player who will not be truly NBA-ready for another two seasons at least, indicates that winning a championship is not an immediate goal. Jackson's maneuvers thus far hint that he values "the system" above talent—perhaps too far above—which is going to turn some free agents away.
At age 25, Monroe is young enough that he might not mind waiting a few seasons for Porzingis to grow up, especially if the Knicks pony up the max contract. Yet older players like West and even those in the middle of their careers may be harder sells.
If the Knicks miss out on these targets, they have two options.
They could bide their time until next offseason. The salary cap will skyrocket from $67.1 million to a projected $89 million. Some tasty free agents will hit the market then too: Kevin Durant, Joakim Noah, Bradley Beal, Timofey Mozgov, Andre Drummond, Roy Hibbert and Mike Conley among them.
Or, they could go for a true rebuild...and trade Carmelo Anthony.
I’d like to rebuild and make the most of the 31-year-old star we still owe $75 million to. But a long-term rebuild is very difficult when you don’t have many draft picks in your future, and the Knicks don't. Nor do the Knicks have assets with which to trade for draft picks. The only big thing they have to trade is 'Melo.
Trading Carmelo seems like a legitimate possibility, because the draft choices definitely did not cater to him. It's not too ridiculous to imagine 'Melo in a Sixers jersey and Jackson riffling through a stack of Sam Hinkie's picks.
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