2016 NBA Championship Odds: Fresh Update Post-Draft
Young players picked in the 2015 NBA Draft likely won't single-handedly turn their respective teams' fortunes around in just one year. Still, the draft has made the picture ahead of next season slightly more clear.
Some teams are set up for a big jump in 2015-16, assuming free agency works out according to plan.
But there are a lot of unknown factors. Major free agents could come and go, and the championship odds will change accordingly. Apparent underdogs today may prevail tomorrow with a big signing, but there are still plenty of teams that can already be penciled in to be in the title picture when the 2016 playoffs arrive.
The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers put on a great basketball show for all basketball fans in the NBA Finals, and the draft was the first chance for inferior teams to catch up. It's also an opportunity to acquire attractive trade assets, which can be used for big-picture trades down the road.
More than anything, the draft often shows what direction teams are headed in. Some semi-contenders look to hit the reset button, while others look for immediate help to get over the hump.
The No Shots
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Philadelphia 76ers: 200-1
The 76ers are still in full rebuild mode, stocking up on young assets. Philadelphia surprisingly added another big man with the third overall pick: the skilled Jahlil Okafor. Joel Embiid's reoccurring foot issues don't offer much encouragement. Developing Nerlens Noel, Embiid (if he can play) and Okafor will take priority over everything else. The 76ers will be bottom-dwellers for another year or two.
Orlando Magic: 200-1
The Magic have some nice young pieces in Elfrid Payton, Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo. They addressed a desperate shooting need on the perimeter by picking Mario Hezonja, but his presence doesn't change much in the short term. Orlando is in the same boat as the 76ers, and will look to develop its young players in a what is a multiyear project.
Charlotte Hornets: 150-1
The team got rid of Lance Stephenson, but Spencer Hawes isn't exactly going to blow the Hornets away. Charlotte also traded for Nicolas Batum and replaced the departed Noah Vonleh by drafting another big man, Frank Kaminsky. The frontcourt could get a little crowded as a result. The recent moves should help Charlotte win a few more games, but this roster is nowhere near title contention.
Brooklyn Nets: 125-1
The Nets are stuck without an apparent way to get unstuck. They traded Mason Plumlee for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson on draft night, a slightly questionable move which won't really make that big of an impact. Brooklyn can't tank after trading away its 2016, 2017 and 2018 first-round picks. It has no choice but to re-sign Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young while remaining in NBA purgatory.
Denver Nuggets: 125-1
The Nuggets have finally conceded that a roster full of nice role players isn't going to lead to playoff success. Denver is way overdue for an overhaul, and drafting a young and talented point guard in Emmanuel Mudiay was the first step. Danilo Gallinari is already being shopped, while Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler could follow.
The Long Shots
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Sacramento Kings: 125-1
Most of the recent headlines surrounding Sacramento have revolved around the feud between DeMarcus Cousins and head coach George Karl. That certainly doesn't help the team's championship odds. The Kings added a great defensive player in Willie Cauley-Stein, but they are still a mess, even more so if they somehow end up trading Cousins.
Utah Jazz: 100-1
Utah's odds seem a little low. This team won't be a title contender, but it's not completely unfathomable that the Jazz could take a step toward and sniff around the playoffs. They played quality basketball late in the year, going 19-10 after the All-Star break. With a young and improving core, as well as some cap space this summer, the Jazz could take a big leap forward. Drafting another big man in Trey Lyles will add depth up front. Watch for this team to beat a lot of odds.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 100-1
Minnesota picked big man Karl-Anthony Towns with the first overall pick, and it has a promising young core to build around. Andrew Wiggins is a future All-Star, while Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng are all intriguing role players. Ricky Rubio's injury history is a little worrying, and it will take a couple of years for this group to grow into a truly competitive team.
Detroit Pistons: 100-1
Detroit has a lot of decisions to make. Is Reggie Jackson or Brandon Jennings the point guard of the future? Should they pay Greg Monroe (probably not)? Stan Van Gundy is slowly tailoring the roster to his style of coaching, but it will take a while before things begin to click. The Pistons needed to improve on the wing, and they added a versatile young player in Stanley Johnson, which was a step in the right direction.
New York Knicks: 100-1
There was a lot of dismay in the arena when the New York Knicks selected Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis with the fourth overall pick. It will almost certainly take him a while to adjust to the NBA game, but he's an interesting piece for the future. Unfortunately, the team still has holes at practically every position. Filling some of those will be possible this summer, but making a miraculous turnaround from last year's mess of a season is still a long shot.
Phoenix Suns: 80-1
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The Suns have some nice pieces, but that's hardly enough to take the team back to the playoffs. Brandon Knight is in for a big pay raise, and Phoenix won't have much room to add quality players. They drafted a 2-guard in Devin Booker, a versatile wing with great range who should fit in well with the team.
Phoenix does have some quality players. Eric Bledsoe is a pitbull, P.J. Tucker is a nice three-and-D weapon and the Morris twins are locked up on cheap long-term deals. But if the Suns re-sign Knight, they'll be forced to make trades rather than competing for major signatures in free agency.
If the Suns can slot in a superstar around its core of role players, this team would be scary. Phoenix could get a little crazy and swing some deals, but the real chase for a star will likely have to wait until next year.
The odds might seem a little high for a borderline playoff team in the West (especially compared to the Jazz), but this group is unlikely to make the postseason unless something funky happens in the offseason.
Milwaukee Bucks: 66-1
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While other teams are about to enter the frantic free-agency period, the Milwaukee Bucks will calmly do their thing on the sidelines. The team should re-sign Khris Middleton and continue to wait on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and Michael Carter-Williams to develop.
The draft was somewhat weird for the Bucks. They gave up a future first-rounder to bring in guard Greivis Vasquez. Milwaukee also drafted a scoring-minded Rashad Vaughn, a curious choice with O.J. Mayo still under contract.
One way or another, the Bucks will be fine moving forward. They have young and talented players who will be given time to grow together. Head coach Jason Kidd has already established a defensive identity within the team, and the future should be bright.
Other than re-signing Middleton, Milwaukee probably won't make a big splash this summer. That makes the 66-1 odds understandable.
Los Angeles Lakers: 50-1
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The Los Angeles Lakers will always be an attractive destination for stars, and their title odds could shift massively as free agency takes its course. They drafted D'Angelo Russell. Julius Randle and Kobe Bryant will be back from injuries, and the Lakers will have cap space to add a max-contract player.
It's no surprise that plenty of big names have already been linked with the Lakers, starting with Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, and ending with DeMarcus Cousins and LaMarcus Aldridge.
If the Lakers land a big-time big, they should be a significantly better team next year. However, the oddsmakers still seem skeptical, and rightfully so.
Bryant will be coming off yet another major injury, and even a positive draft and free agency are unlikely to immediately catapult the Lakers into the ranks of serious title contenders. There simply isn't a solid core in place for that to be the case.
Instead, the Lakers will look to add a superstar this summer and hope to lure another one to LA in 2016. Russell and Randle should get a chance to develop (assuming LA doesn't trade them), and this team has the potential to look scary down the road if things go right.
Boston Celtics: 50-1
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The Boston Celtics are a curious case. Even with a seemingly weak roster, they made the playoffs in the East. Boston has a couple of young and intriguing players, but the team remains a long-term project for now, which is reflected in the odds.
President of basketball operations Danny Ainge has stocked up on draft picks, which could be packaged into blockbuster trades. Disgruntled All-Stars become available on an annual basis, and it's impossible to rule the Celtics out of any potential deal.
The free-agency period will be interesting for Boston. It has cap space and logjams almost everywhere, but if a star doesn't land in the team's lap, it's not impossible that Ainge opts to essentially stand pat.
Drafting Terry Rozier was an interesting choice. He's an explosive scorer, but his presence creates an immediate muddle in the backcourt unless Boston makes a trade. Ainge won't make a deal just for the sake of making one, but he has been dangling Marcus Smart in trade discussions, according to the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach.
Gerald Wallace's deal will come off the books in 2016, just as the cap rises. Keeping the salary sheet clean until then would theoretically allow Boston to add multiple stars and build a superteam in just one year.
Portland Trail Blazers: 50-1
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It might be somewhat surprising to find the Portland Trail Blazers with such poor championship odds, considering how well the team performed last season. They had one of the most solid cores in the league, but health issues closed the door on the team's title hopes. A whole lot of uncertainty lies ahead.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews are all free agents. Matthews tore his Achilles tendon last year, and whether or not he stays will depend on what his market value turns out to be. To make matters worse, Aldridge is expected to leave the team, per Marc Stein of ESPN.com. Add to the fact that trusted wing Nicolas Batum was traded to the Hornets, and Portland is a mess.
Arron Afflalo is also expected to opt out of his deal. However, the Trail Blazers could potentially let Matthews go and stick with Afflalo if there ends up being a bidding war for the former player.
C.J. McCollum showed some tangible improvement and could take on a bigger role, and Portland traded for a young big in Mason Plumlee on draft night. But with so many rumors and unknown factors, it's understandable to find the Trail Blazers with 50-1 odds.
Toronto Raptors: 40-1
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The Toronto Raptors cruised through the regular season, but ended up getting swept by the Washington Wizards in the first round of the playoffs. This team has a ton of flaws, but there will opportunities to fix them.
Toronto's main players are all under contract, but Amir Johnson and Louis Williams are both coming off the books soon. If the Raptors let them both go, they'll have some cap space to play with. General manager Masai Ujiri hasn't been shy about making bold moves in the past, and there is a chance a new-look Raptors team will be put on the floor next year.
According to Joe Kotoch of SheridanHoops.com, Ujiri is shopping even his most prized assets:
"According to several executives I spoke with, the Toronto Raptors are actively exploring trades for All-Star guard Kyle Lowry, former All-Star DeMar DeRozan and even Jonas Valanciunas, who is up for an extension this summer. According to these sources, Raptors GM Masai Ujiri wants to blow up this roster because he believes it has reached its ceiling, even in the weak East.
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The Raptors won't contend for a championship as presently constructed. But with a trigger-happy general manager at the helm, Toronto could undergo a major transformation.
Miami Heat: 40-1
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The Miami Heat are a mystery. They missed the playoffs with Chris Bosh sidelined for the majority of the year, but seemingly struck gold in landing Goran Dragic and discovering Hassan Whiteside.
Justise Winslow somehow dropped to the Heat at No. 10 in Thursday night's draft, and he could very well replace Luol Deng. Winslow has landed in the perfect situation—he won't be pressured into a scoring role and should benefit from a veteran environment.
There are still a lot of issues Miami has to deal with in free agency, though. Dragic will opt out, although Heat president Pat Riley appears confident in his chances to retain the point guard with a five-year, $80 million offer, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Dwyane Wade will be entering free agency as well, and he remains the biggest question mark. Wade is apparently ready to meet with other teams unless Miami is willing to give him a raise, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
If the Heat can keep this core together, it could still be a formidable force in the East. The championship odds are fair considering the unknown factors, and could move in either direction as Riley finishes constructing the roster.
Indiana Pacers: 33-1
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The Indiana Pacers are a bit of a mess. What appeared as a perennial title-contending roster has crumbled, starting with Paul George's devastating leg injury. Lance Stephenson was then traded, Roy Hibbert had a bad year and David West's play declined as well.
Hibbert and West both have player options for next season, and a lot of what the Pacers can do will depend on their decisions. West is reportedly opting out, but Indiana still won't have much cap space to immediately expand its internal talent pool. On the flip side, Hibbert appears to be opting in, per Grantland's Zach Lowe.
The Pacers are well-coached, and this weird roster still almost made the playoffs in the East last season. If Paul George can return to form and the Pacers have a successful free-agency period, they could still be a feisty matchup. Still, it's hard to see this team turning the corner fast enough and catching up to the true contenders.
They opted to draft Texas' Myles Turner, a young center with potential, in the first round on Thursday. That could mean that Hibbert will be moved, but it could also severely detract from any hope the Pacers have of returning to the playoffs next year. Considering the current situation, even the 33-1 odds might be a little optimistic.
Dallas Mavericks: 33-1
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The Mavericks have ended up with 33-1 odds, but that should change significantly over the next couple of months. In reality, Dallas only has four players on guaranteed deals for next year, and it's completely unclear what the roster will look like.
The Mavericks will go after big-time free agents first, and landing one could boost their title chances. But if Dallas strikes out, there is a chance it might be forced to settle for leftovers. If DeAndre Jordan doesn't end up signing with Dallas, retaining Tyson Chandler will become the No. 1 priority.
It appears as though the Mavs are ready to cut ties with Monta Ellis if he opts out of the last year of his deal, per ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon. With Rajon Rondo also departing, that would leave both backcourt spots open. Finding solid two-way perimeter players will be key.
Dallas could still be competitive without landing a superstar. The Mavs will be a solid offensive team with Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons leading the way, and filling the roster with competent role players might do the trick.
Washington Wizards: 33-1
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Considering how well the Wizards performed in the playoffs, it's a bit surprising to see the oddsmakers giving them so little love. Then again, recent events make it understandable.
Paul Pierce, who was a major contributor in the team's playoff run this year, will be opting out of his deal, per Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. That leaves a gaping hole in Washington's frontcourt, and the Wizards won't have enough cap space to competently replace the departing veteran. It's on Otto Porter and rookie Kelly Oubre to pick up that slack.
Washington will still be competitive, and Porter's development late last season was encouraging. However, that won't be enough to take it past the top dogs in the Eastern Conference, even with John Wall and Bradley Beal leading the way.
The biggest potential catch remains one year away. Washington will try to steal Kevin Durant in the summer of 2016, and will remain a feisty postseason matchup until then.
New Orleans Pelicans: 28-1
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The New Orleans Pelicans finally made their way into the playoffs, although it was mostly due to the Oklahoma City Thunder's injury issues. Anthony Davis was spectacular, and he will inevitably be the best player in the world soon.
Alvin Gentry will be taking over the coaching wheel next season, which should certainly improve the Pelicans offense. Even though Eric Gordon has opted into the last year of his contract, New Orleans could still have some room to add talent with Omer Asik's deal coming off the books.
The West is brutal, and even if the Pelicans improve, simply making the playoffs will be no cake walk. But Davis had an opportunity to dip into the postseason waters and may very well return next year.
If New Orleans keeps Asik, it will have to scramble to put together a supporting cast. The Pelicans don't have much wiggle room, but adding backcourt depth will be crucial.
Memphis Grizzlies: 28-1
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The Memphis Grizzlies were up 2-1 against the reigning champion Golden State Warriors in the second round of the playoffs, but the team's 28-1 odds reflect the brutality of the West.
Mike Conley played through injury against the Dubs, but the Grizzlies still had a chance in the series. The biggest key this offseason will be keeping the frontcourt intact, as Marc Gasol is entering unrestricted free agency.
Gasol is expected to be back, per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports. Memphis values consistency and has already taken care of Randolph as well. The team won't have much room to add more talent, but this is still a powerhouse in the West.
All things considered, the odds seem too high. One way or another, Memphis should be back among the elite in the West, imposing its physical style upon the opposition.
Atlanta Hawks: 20-1
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The Atlanta Hawks are surprisingly low on this list. They had their hiccups in the playoffs, playing a close series with the Wizards before getting swept in the Eastern Conference Finals by Cleveland.
Still, the Hawks are very well-coached, and the core group will be back next year. The team does have two crucial free agents in Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll that need to be taken care of. That could swing the odds down.
However, Atlanta should see the value in maintaining consistency and re-sign the two starters. After that, Atlanta won't have much wiggle room in free agency, but they should still be able to add some role players.
This team had four All-Stars and plays in the East. It doesn't feel like the Hawks should be 20-1 favorites, but the minor roster uncertainty and the beating they took in the postseason likely contribute.
Houston Rockets: 16-1
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Considering the fact that the Houston Rockets made the Western Conference Finals without two starters, it's a little surprising to find them at 16-1. Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas were crucial parts of the team, yet Dwight Howard and James Harden managed to drag this roster surprisingly far.
Some role players may change, but the same core group should be back next year. Both Terrence Jones and Motiejunas are eligible for extensions, but Houston will likely be content paying them their rookie-scale contracts for another year while exploring free agency.
Houston did use Jones as bait in potential draft-day deals, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, and could continue doing so when free agency rolls around.
As currently constructed, Houston should still be considered a powerhouse in the West. There is also a sense that general manager Daryl Morey could somehow improve the roster. He has enough assets to swing major deals, and it will be interesting to see what course of action the Rockets take this summer.
Outside of (potentially) Josh Smith, Patrick Beverley is the big free agent that Houston wants to retain, but there will likely be competition. Spanish media outlet Marca (h/t House of Houston's Brian Patterson) recently reported that the Rockets would be willing to sign Real Madrid's Sergio Llull, so a contingency plan may already be in place.
Chicago Bulls: 11-1
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The Chicago Bulls have the sixth-best odds to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy next season, mostly due to the fact that the team is in the weaker Eastern Conference.
In reality, there are still a lot of question marks that need to be straightened out. Derrick Rose has only shown flashes of his former self. It's going to take more than that to make it past the Cavaliers, who knocked the Bulls out in the second round of this year's playoffs.
Jimmy Butler needs to be re-signed, and his pending raise will remove Chicago's flexibility in free agency. The Bulls may even have to dump salary to get under the luxury tax.
The improvement will have to come from within, with Rose returning to his former glory or Butler taking another step forward. The team has enough talent to contend, but things will have to click under new head coach Fred Hoiberg.
Los Angeles Clippers: 9-1
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The Los Angeles Clippers were arguably the second-best team in the Western Conference this season. They knocked out the San Antonio Spurs in one of the most thrilling seven-game matchups in recent memory, before inexplicably dropping a 3-1 series lead against the Rockets.
Even though Chris Paul was hobbled, he played out of his mind and recorded some truly memorable postseason moments. With Blake Griffin next to him and Doc Rivers leading the way on the coaching front, the Clips will certainly be back next season.
If they can keep DeAndre Jordan.
Jordan will likely explore his options on the open market. If he leaves without a sign-and-trade, the Clippers would be left with a huge hole in the middle and no cap space to appropriately fill it.
LA has already traded for Lance Stephenson, all while dumping Spencer Hawes' awful contract in the process. That should be regarded as a positive move, assuming Rivers can get Stephenson's career back on track.
San Antonio Spurs: 9-1
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You can never count out the San Antonio Spurs. The 2014 NBA champions have a lot of work to do in free agency, but it would be silly not to trust them to figure it out.
Kawhi Leonard will be re-signed at the max, one way or the other. There is some uncertainty around Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, although it's hard to see the former retiring.
Duncan still has a lot left in the tank. There are reports that he could take a huge pay cut to leave room for the Spurs to maneuver in free agency, per Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News:
"There are several NBA player personnel executives who believe the Spurs will offer Duncan a two-year contract that begins between $6 million and $7 million, with a partial guarantee and a player option in the second season.
If Duncan doesn’t exercise the option, he gets, say, 50 percent of that season’s salary. In effect, his salary for next season would remain over $10 million, the partially guaranteed portion of the second season’s salary remaining on the Spurs team salary after the cap explodes with the NBA’s new TV money kicking in for 2016-17.
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Timing will be crucial for San Antonio. If it can re-sign its own free agents quickly while renouncing the rest of its cap holds, the team could still be in the running for some major free agents. LaMarcus Aldridge could be one of those targets.
San Antonio will also have to make a decision on how much it can pay Danny Green, who will surely attract interest in free agency. The front office has a lot of number-crunching to do, but the 9-1 odds on a Spurs title run seem fair.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 7-1
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Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder missed the playoffs last season, they are right up there with the favorites to achieve ultimate glory.
The Thunder just haven't been able to catch a break on the injury front in the last couple of years, derailing what should have been a perennial title contender. Kevin Durant's foot injury is very worrying, but if he, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka can stay healthy, Oklahoma City will remain a threat.
They are essentially capped out, so there won't be much roster movement. Keeping Enes Kanter, a restricted free agent who had a very successful run with the team, should be the team's top priority.
The Thunder got a great talent in point guard Cameron Payne with the 14th overall pick on Thursday. It might take him, and new coach Billy Donovan, a little while to adjust to the NBA game, but they should help the team next year.
Golden State Warriors: 9-2
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The reigning NBA champions are understandably one of next season's heavy title favorites.
The Warriors will keep their core intact, with the key players only just hitting their primes. Draymond Green is the only free agent that Golden State absolutely has to hold onto, and there is practically no way the two parties will fail to reach an agreement.
The Warriors mesmerized the league with their ball movement, three-point shooting and switch-heavy, small-ball defense. But Golden State will no longer fly under the radar, and it will have a target on its back.
The Warriors had a seemingly easy road to the NBA Finals, with the Western Conference getting hit by the injury bug. At the same time, the team avoided serious maladies. That string of luck is perhaps why the Warriors aren't the favorites to climb to the mountaintop next year.
Even so, Golden state is just getting started, and it is certainly the team to beat.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 5-2
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LeBron James was two games away from winning it all this year with an injury-depleted roster, so it's no surprise that the Cavaliers are the favorites to bringing the title home next year.
There are some question marks regarding who will be back, but the Cavs will be a heavyweight swinging for the fences for as long as LeBron is in town.
If Kevin Love returns, the internal logjam with James and Tristan Thompson will still be present. Thompson, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavadova are all free agents as well. As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes writes, the Cavs have basically no choice but to pay the huge bill and bring this roster back.
But this team showed a ton of growth defensively in the playoffs, which leaves no doubt about whether Cleveland is a legitimate contender.
If Cleveland stays healthy, the amount of talent on the team should easily overwhelm the Eastern Conference. Either way, another trip to the NBA Finals is certainly in the Cavs' near future. The odds reflect this, and being part of the weaker conference gives the oddsmakers more confidence to pencil Cleveland in as the huge favorite.
All odds are courtesy of Oddschecker.
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