Where Can the Golden State Warriors Trade David Lee This Offseason?
Sixty-seven wins in the regular season. A small-ball revolution with undersized power forward Draymond Green manning the center position. A barrage of three-point shooting and off-the-bounce playmakers. A defense that switches every screen and uses speed to deny entry passes, swipe steals and negate any size advantage.
The Golden State Warriors took the evolving nature of the modern NBA game to a new extreme this season, and it left David Lee without a role. Head coach Steve Kerr weaponized all sorts of lineups and went deep into his bench even in the NBA Finals to maximize his team's chances of winning.
Andrew Bogut—the same man acquired for former face of the franchise Monta Ellis and who represents one of the league's most dominant interior defenders; the same man who started at center earlier in this series and throughout the entire regular season—did not even play in the Game 6 clincher.
No player represented the seismic shift in lineups and style more than David Lee. Last summer, his name was constantly dragged through the trade rumor mill as the Warriors debated whether to acquire Kevin Love.
After the Warriors decided to stand pat with their roster as currently assembled, Lee caught one of the worst breaks of his career—which, in a cruel twist of fate, helped to propel Golden State to the championship, as noted by Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated:
"In the preseason finale against Denver, [Lee] tweaked his hamstring. A week later he rushed back and tweaked it again. He sat out for more than a month. By the time he was ready to return, the Warriors were rolling (22-3), Draymond Green was firmly entrenched as the starter while Marreese Speights had earned Steve Kerr's trust coming off the bench. Suddenly, Lee was a pricey insurance policy. He started picking up DNP-CD's in March and by the end of the regular season he was little more than an afterthought.
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Despite Lee recording 11 points in 13 minutes of action in Game 3 of the Finals as the Warriors nearly scratched out a come-from-behind win, everything that glued him to the bench was on full display: His nifty passing and around-the-rim finishing were often canceled out by porous pick-and-roll defense and an inability to protect the rim in any meaningful capacity.
In only one minute and 13 seconds of action in Game 6, the Cavs attacked Lee in two pick-and-rolls, one of which ended with LeBron James bulldozing through Lee for an easy layup.
What started out as a season brimming with promise ended on the bench for the Warriors' highest-paid player. And with one more year left on his contract for a shade under $15.5 million, it appears he's on his way out the door via trade, according to ESPN's Marc Stein.
And this is a move, somewhat ironically, that clears cap room for the Warriors to extend Lee's replacement, Green, with a max contract. Talk about coming full circle.
The question now: Where could Lee end up next season?
Playing style, positional fit and cap flexibility will all factor into Lee's ultimate destination before the start of next season. The Boston Celtics and New Orleans Pelicans fit the bill the most, as they can check all of these boxes and are likely to remain quiet during free agency.
New Orleans Pelicans
First, the obvious: Lee just spent an entire season playing under Alvin Gentry, the former Warriors lead assistant coach and newly hired head man with the Pelicans. But more than their familiarity, Lee is a prototypical Gentry-style big and would make for a fine complement alongside Anthony Davis.
Lee's prowess as a pick-and-roll player is clear and has been since his days in New York under Mike D'Antoni. Lee enjoyed some of his best years during those early stages of his career, piling up 20.2 points per game to go along with 11.7 rebounds during his All-Star campaign of 2009-10 as a member of the Knicks.
Even though he didn't get much run this season, Lee insists he can still be a quality player in this league.
"I'll have chances from here. It's not like I'm trying to prove to people that I'm able to play this game," Lee told ESPN Radio after Game 1 (via Marc Stein of ESPN.com). "Everybody knows that I'm capable."
We saw some of it during that brief stint of action in Game 3 of the Finals, with Lee rolling and finishing with both hands or catching, turning and pivoting to find open three-point shooters.
Especially with Davis at the 5, Lee slots in nicely as a pick-and-roll 4-man for secondary screening situations. He also won't have to play the role of rim protector next to Davis, as the Pelicans can flip matchups to have Lee guard the more perimeter-oriented player of the opponent's two bigs.
Obviously Lee isn't much of a defensive upgrade for a team that finished 22nd in defensive rating during the regular season (according to NBA.com), but the hiring of Gentry indicates a clear direction for the team moving forward: spread pick-and-roll and a greater focus on offense in general.
And with the departure of Omer Asik almost certain as he enters unrestricted free agency—he will likely seek more consistent minutes elsewhere after being hustled out the door in Houston to make room for Dwight Howard, only to lose court time in New Orleans to off-the-bench shooting ace Ryan Anderson—the Pelicans need an offensively capable backup power forward.
Jeff Withey, who will likely take over Asik's minutes at the backup 5 spot, could pair nicely with Lee in limited minutes. While Lee screens and re-screens to free up ball-handlers, Withey can patrol the baseline area near the hoop for drop-off passes and offensive rebounds. On the other end, he can cover for Lee's troubles guarding the basket.
As for the cap particulars of a potential deal, the Pelicans or any other suitor would likely have plenty of leverage: The Warriors need to unload Lee, and his limited role this past season certainly reduced his trade value.
New Orleans only has $56.2 million on the books for next season, and that includes Eric Gordon picking up his $15 million player option and Norris Cole's $3 million qualifying offer. With the cap projected at $67.1 million for next season, not matching any incoming offer sheets for Cole would nearly create the requisite room for New Orleans to absorb Lee's entire deal without having to give anything significant back other than a second-round pick or two.
All in all, it's a win-win for the Pelicans. They maintain their cap flexibility for next offseason due to Lee's expiring contract, and any benefit he does bring on the floor means the Pelicans have first dibs at bringing him back for what's likely to be a deal far less than the significant salary chunk he's currently eating up.
Boston Celtics
Boston GM Danny Ainge has done quite a bit of maneuvering to set up his Celtics with plenty of options for the future. Sitting on a pile of draft picks and hoards of cap space, Boston is set up to take plenty of low-risk, high-reward chances.
The trade deadline deal to acquire Isaiah Thomas was exactly that. The Celtics weren't anywhere near championship contender status last season, but what was the harm in taking on a cap-friendly, four-year, $27 million deal for an electric point guard?
According to Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald, Thomas had always caught Ainge's attention.
"I've always wanted Isaiah," Ainge said after Boston acquired Thomas. "Isaiah was my first call last summer in free agency. Isaiah was a guy I liked in the draft. Isaiah was a guy that was part of discussions when he was at Sacramento."
Thomas might not be the centerpiece of any future NBA title team, but he can certainly be a key asset toward that future.
Enter Lee, who could fit in well next to Thomas. Although talent was lacking everywhere, Boston's offense was particularly hampered by an inability to draw defenses into the paint to protect against its rollers on pick-and-roll.
According to Synergy Sports, the Celtics ranked seventh in the league in scoring efficiency when pick-and-roll ball-handlers hit the rolling bigs. They also completed this pocket pass for shot attempts at the fourth-highest rate in the league. This high volume of frequency and efficiency would seem to spell good things for an offense.
But against Boston, that was the game plan. Their bigs—Tyler Zeller, Brandon Bass, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger—weren't good enough to score on rolls to the rim at a dominating efficiency, and none could shoot it at a deadly rate on pick-and-pops. This allowed defenses to shut off the three-point line, and it's why Boston's shooters ranked 24th in the league on spot-up shots.
Of the four best offensive teams in the league last season (the San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers, according to offensive rating, via NBA.com), none were particularly concerned with generating points via their rollers. The Spurs ranked 22nd, according to Synergy, the Warriors 20th, the Mavericks 19th and the Clippers 12th.
What all of these team do have in their bigs are playmakers out of pick-and-roll, which is to say that they can see the floor despite immense pressure in the paint. Tim Duncan, Andrew Bogut, Blake Griffin and Tyson Chandler rank among the best passing big men in the league.
Lee is on par with these players in terms of passing ability, and he provides Thomas with a secondary playmaker. Instead of having to directly create baskets whether for himself or teammates, he can drop off passes to Lee knowing he can relieve some of the pressure to generate points.
The Celtics have all kinds of draft picks and young, cheap assets to swing a deal. Similar to New Orleans, they stand to benefit should Lee regain his former All-Star form. And if he doesn't, they cut ties after one year without batting an eye.
Don't expect Lee to find a permanent new home when the Warriors do finally pull the trigger. Instead, it's likely he will use his one-year sojourn to re-establish his value and enter 2016 free agency at an opportune time when the salary cap is expected to spike significantly.
Not necessarily a storybook ending, but not a bad chapter for a guy who just won his first NBA title.
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