3-Step Plan for Los Angeles Clippers to Return to the NBA Playoffs in 2015-16
The Los Angeles Clippers have an obvious chance of returning to the Western Conference playoffs next year, regardless of how this offseason unfolds. A team with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is probably playing more than 82 games, almost despite of the rest of the roster.
But considering the strength of the West, it's not completely out of the question that the Clippers fall out of the top eight next season.
Let's get hypothetical for a second.
A Zero Season
Let's say DeAndre Jordan leaves in free agency, and the Clippers don't find a capable replacement. They're left with someone like Kosta Koufos or even (gulp) Spencer Hawes starting at the 5 next year. Head coach and President of Operations Doc Rivers and the rest of the front office then fail to bring in any sort of capable depth to stabilize the roster.
Whoever the Clippers bring in for the mid-level exception—which they would have if Jordan were to leave and send them below the cap—busts for a second straight year. The rest of the roster is made up of mostly minimum-contract players who don't end up contributing because Rivers went the predictable route of signing age-33-and-older talent over the summer.
We enter the 2015-16 season, and Paul—now on the wrong side of 30—gets banged up. Griffin has another year where he misses 15 games. All of this happens while the West gets even stronger than it was this past season.
The Utah Jazz jump from 38 wins to 50 after a strong offseason, a second training camp under Quin Snyder and a defense that finishes in the top three. (The Jazz were easily first in points allowed per possession after the All-Star break this year. Watch them make a playoff push if they have a halfway decent offseason.)
The Oklahoma City Thunder get back into the playoffs after a healthy Kevin Durant and healthy Serge Ibaka re-enter the lineup. The New Orleans Pelicans win five more games with their improved and imaginative offense under new coach Alvin Gentry.
The Dallas Mavericks tread water. So do the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers (after re-signing their important free agents).
All this happens while the Clips drop from 56 to 46 victories in a transitioning 2015-16 before they prepare to go after a big name with max cap space in the summer of 2016.
Goodbye, playoffs.
How's that for a hypothetical? Is it improbable? Sure. Basically, everything would have to go wrong for the Clippers to miss the playoffs next year. But is it possible? Would it be the most shocking moment in world history if this team bungled the offseason and actually missed the playoffs?
Not really.
The Clips were almost championship contenders this year. A reasonable person can certainly argue they were one of the two or three teams in the league best-suited to fend off the Warriors in the postseason.
Unfortunately, they were responsible for their own undoing, unraveling after taking a 3-1 Western Conference semifinals lead over the Rockets and showing off one of the biggest collapses (if not the single biggest) in NBA postseason history.
Rivers doesn't have to get too creative to ensure a return to the postseason—and once the Clippers actually get into the dance, they have a legitimate shot to win it. All he has to do is keep it simple and address the key weaknesses that have plagued his team the past couple of years.
1. Re-sign DeAndre Jordan
This is the obvious first step. Everyone and their mother—Kimberly Jordan included—knows the Clippers have to re-sign D.J., and they have to give up a max contract to do it. (On a side note, how does Kimberly Jordan not have a million Twitter followers by now? The only thing in basketball more excited than a D.J. dunk is his mother tweeting how he was obviously fouled on the play five seconds after it.)
If D.J. walks, he takes the Clippers D with him. Whether you believe Jordan was a deserving First-Team All-Defense member or not, it's nearly impossible to argue against him being the Clippers' most important defender. Sure, Chris Paul may be more effective, but an anchoring center is always going to add significantly more impact to a defensive unit than a point guard.
Defense is about the back-line help. And while Griffin picked up his D during the playoffs, we don't have reason to suspect he'll be on anything other than the cruise-control, regular-season defender he was this past season. That means Jordan would have to be the Clips' entire back-line defense once again.
L.A. is right up against the cap even if Jordan leaves. It wouldn't be able to afford someone of his caliber to take over the center spot, unless it got particularly lucky with a sign-and-trade.
The Clips need D.J. as much as D.J. needs them. And make no mistake about it: D.J. is best off from a basketball perspective with the Clippers.
He can use a coach who props him up like no one else ever has to his advantage. He can control the defense and make it his. He can use Rivers' offense to show off one of the best screen-setting repertoires in the league. He can solely worry about scoring off lobs, dump-offs and putbacks.
Because of the way the Clippers use him, Jordan is one of the best offensive centers in the league. If he's on another team, that's not necessarily true. Say he were to go to the New York Knicks, where he'd actually get more touches. He'd look far uglier of an offensive player than he does right now when the ball is in his hands for only split seconds and when he's picking and rolling like few other centers.
A core of Jordan, Griffin and Paul has proven it's good for 50-plus wins a season—maybe more. The Clips have won 56, 57 and 56 games, respectively, over the past three years with those guys as their centerpieces. Griffin and Jordan have actually improved since that streak started, too.
If L.A. went into next season with the same core as this year—the aforementioned three plus J.J. Redick—it wouldn't have to worry about missing the playoffs, barring injury. But if the Clips want to make the final two words of the previous sentence irrelevant, they have to add some depth.
2. Find Wing Reinforcements
Don't be fooled by the previous paragraph. The depth is important, if only for injury and rest-related issues.
Rivers is a good enough coach that he didn't end up overplaying his starters during the regular season even though there weren't many options for him to use off the bench. Come playoff time, though, the first unit gassed itself. The Clips had no choice other than to run their stars into the ground.
It doesn't have to be that way in 2015-16. The Clippers don't need a dominant bench. They just need one that isn't the worst among all playoff teams. And yes, this year's reserve unit really was that poor.
If the Clips manage to re-sign Jordan, they can still find wings on the cheap. They'll have the taxpayer mid-level exception (about $3.7 million) available to them, a price that could find some talent.
We keep hearing the Paul Pierce rumors, per Robert Morales of InsideSoCal.com., though Pierce wouldn't actually help with what the Clippers are lacking in (athleticism and defense on the perimeter). Do the Clippers really need more offense after ranking No. 1 in points per possession for a second consecutive season?
Bringing in an offensive-minded wing for a minimum is one thing. It doesn't kill the asset. But using the mini mid-level to sign Pierce would have a completely different effect.
There are defensive wings out there to sign, as outlined in a piece I wrote earlier this week. Alan Anderson will be available. So will former Clipper Al-Farouq Aminu. Either of those guys could help and could do it for cheap.
3. Get Capable Backups for the Stars
The Clips have fared just fine without their stars the past couple of years. When Paul went down last season, they went 12-6 in his absence. When Griffin underwent elbow surgery this year, L.A. sustained a 9-6 record. But that doesn't mean the Clippers are always equipped to recover any time the big boys go down.
So, go out and get a third big man—even if Spencer Hawes is presumably returning, considering there are three years remaining on his deal, and the Clippers don't own the necessary assets to turn his contract dump into anything enticing. Add a backup point guard who isn't Lester Hudson, whose deal extends into next season but is currently non-guaranteed.
The trick here is finding guys who are cheap but helpful. The margins matter, even if you're not always looking there.
Failing to capitalize in that aspect of management is one of the many problems the Clippers front office has suffered during the Rivers era. If it can actually extend the postseason rotation beyond the six capable NBA players L.A. had this year, this team could be bound for more than just a return to the Western Conference Finals.
But that actually needs to materialize before we heap any praise on a group that is still yet to travel as deep in the postseason as its talent would say it should.
Follow Fred Katz on Twitter at @FredKatz.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current as of June 3 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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