Karl-Anthony Towns Must Be Critical Piece Among Many in Timberwolves Rebuild
Though 2015-16 won't be the year of the Minnesota Timberwolves, it's still setting up to serve as an exciting time for fans of the downtrodden franchise. Having Andrew Wiggins on board is reason enough for celebration, but the organization is primed to add another crucial piece with the No. 1 pick of the 2015 NBA draft—ideally Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns.
The roster is only getting more talented.
However, rebuilding this team isn't as simple as blindly selecting one of the top talents to kick off the proceedings on June 25. And it's not as easy as nailing that pick either.
Minnesota still has a long tunnel to travel down, and though there's a bright light at the end, it's important to avoid any misfires for the next few years. It's acceptable to unearth a second-round bust, but the first overall pick must turn into a star. Then the Wolves have to continue strengthening their roster and find the right coach to replace Flip Saunders, whose time on the sidelines should be coming to an end fairly soon.
Rebuilds don't take place overnight, even when the night in question features plenty of NBA draft hoopla.
Step 1: Draft Karl-Anthony Towns
It's not difficult.
As intriguing as Jahlil Okafor may be, he's just not the right fit for the Wolves, even if that's apparently where the organization—read: Saunders—is leaning, per ESPN Insider Chad Ford.
Sure, he'd work out rather nicely and command plenty of double-teams in the post during his rookie season, but his skill set isn't as advantageous to the long-term rebuild. He brings strengths to the proverbial table; he just doesn't eliminate primary weaknesses.
The NBA is morphing into more of a three-point-shooting league every year, and the Wolves would risk being left even further behind the curve if they selected Okafor. Already, they're arguably the worst perimeter shooting team in the Association, though that weakness is only emphasized with the pound-it-inside Saunders holding the clipboard.
During the 2014-15 season, Minnesota knocked down only 406 shots from beyond the arc, which left it 17 treys behind the Memphis Grizzlies and the rest of the league. If the team was going to make so few, it was at least going to connect efficiently, right? Wrong, as the Wolves finished No. 25 in three-point percentage, ahead of only the Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets.
Obviously, that's not a combination conducive to success, particularly in the murderers' row that is the NBA's Western Conference.
Not many backcourt members and wing players on the roster are particularly adept at shooting from the perimeter, and the frontcourt is wholly devoid of stretchy contributors. Gorgui Dieng is expanding his range, for example, but he still shot only 30.9 percent on two-pointers from beyond 16 feet and went 1-of-6 from downtown.
But Towns could change that rather quickly, a notion that was only strengthened after this video of him drilling NBA-range threes during workouts surfaced:
Sure, he's essentially shooting set shots, and he's not moving into his looks. Chances are he'll thrive more as a mid-range sniper than a long-range assassin, but he also has the height necessary to rain in buckets without jumping to release over the outstretched arms of a defender.
His form is smooth and consistent. The results are there. And in time, Towns should be able to develop into the rare stretch 5, though nothing about player evolution is ever guaranteed.
On the flip side, here's exclusive video of Okafor letting it fly from beyond the arc:
You're correct. That's not actually Okafor.
It may as well be.
The Duke product thrives right around the basket, and he rarely ventures out beyond short mid-range zones. He has the Tim Duncan-esque bank down. But it's not like he's going to help Minnesota's spacing, and he's utterly incapable of teaming up with Nikola Pekovic.
Towns, thanks to his offensive versatility, can likely suit up next to either Dieng or Pekovic, which gives the Wolves even more options in the immediate and distant future. He's the future frontcourt centerpiece, and the ability to play next to almost anyone is quite nice.
And of course, that's saying nothing of his ability to shore up the team's biggest weakness: rim protection. We've gone over that in detail before, and the points still stand.
Essentially, the Wolves have an easy choice to make on June 25. As a franchise in dire need of floor-spacing contributors and rim protection, they can pick from one of the following two players:
- The shot-swatting defensive stud with three-point range.
- The lumbering defensive liability who dominates right around the basket.
It's that simple. Or at least, it should be.
Step 2: Evaluate the Young Players
Once the Wolves have added Towns—or, in a disastrous development, Okafor—to the roster, they'll have two more picks to make during the selection process.
DraftExpress.com has them going with LSU big man Jordan Mickey at No. 31 and Jarell Martin, a teammate of Mickey's, at No. 36. NBADraft.net predicts that Saunders will add Mickey and UNLV's Christian Wood to complete the draft-day haul.
But no matter whom they add to the mix, the Wolves won't end up serving as big players during the free-agency period. After all, their 15-man roster is nearly going to be set after the draft has come and gone, especially if all three rookies end up on it, not playing in the NBA Developmental League.
Adding the trio would push Minnesota's number of guaranteed contracts for 2015-16 to 13. If the team wanted to bring back Kevin Garnett and Gary Neal, both of whom are unrestricted free agents this summer, that would be it.
And this year, that's a good thing.
The Wolves have to devote as much time as possible to the young players in 2015-16 solely for the purposes of evaluating them and determining rather quickly which ones are going to serve as long-term keepers. They know that Wiggins, Dieng, Zach LaVine and the No. 1 pick are going to be around for a long time, but what about the other inexperienced contributors?
Shabazz Muhammad looked good before a finger injury knocked him out for the season, but he has to prove that his perimeter work isn't a fluke. He also needs to improve defensively and become a more versatile player rather than only contributing points when he knocks down jumpers or goes to work in the post.
Adreian Payne and Anthony Bennett need to boost their own stocks as well, and they'll only get a few more opportunities to do so before the roster gets too crowded.
Plus, more experienced players—in particular Chase Budinger and Ricky Rubio, though those two aren't exactly on the same level—must show that Minnesota should keep investing in their long-term growth. The franchise is already considering the possibility of floating the Spanish floor general in the trade market, per ESPN Insider Chad Ford.
Not all of these players have to work out. But the Wolves do have to give all of them a chance before it's too late, and this season offers the perfect opportunity to do exactly that.
Step 3: Find the Right Veterans
The roster isn't going to be overloaded with youthful players forever. In fact, the books could clear sooner than some might expect.
As of now, the 2016-17 roster contains only three guaranteed contracts (Pekovic, Rubio and Kevin Martin), though this year's No. 1 pick will likely make it a quartet. Minnesota does possess club options on a boatload of players, however.
Per Spotrac.com:
- Anthony Bennett, $7,318,289
- Andrew Wiggins, $6,006,600
- Zach LaVine, $2,240,880
- Shabazz Muhammad, $3,046,299
- Adreian Payne, $2,022,240
- Gorgui Dieng, $2,348,783
The beauty of this situation is that the Wolves will either have plenty of high-quality players on cheap contracts, allowing them to splurge for the right veteran pieces, or they'll decline some of those options and have a plethora of cap room to fill even more holes.
You can spin both routes positively, as each enables the Minnesota front office to acquire the right complementary pieces.
Pekovic and Martin likely aren't the answers, given the youthful big men on—and soon to be on—the roster and the myriad wing contributors. But someone will be a few years down the road, and the Wolves will certainly serve as an attractive destination for free agents willing to brave the cold winter and play on a competitive team in the Western Conference.
Step 4: Figure Out the Coaching Situation
The 60-year-old Saunders isn't going to coach the Wolves forever, and it's exceedingly likely that he soon slips back into a more behind-the-scenes role as president of basketball operations. And while there's no denying that he has a strong track record, that's ultimately for the best.
Archaic is the best word to describe his coaching tendencies. He doesn't promote the use of the three-point arc nearly as much as some other modern-day signal-callers, and his preferred offensive strategy of pounding the ball inside or running isolation offense from the wings is better suited for the early 2000s and late 1990s.
Britt Robson went over this in some detail for MinnPost.com last summer, when Saunders first announced that he was taking over a more prominent role in the organization:
"Saunders is renowned primarily for the beautiful depth and complexity of his offensive sets. But there is a flaw in his system that has become more significant as the game has evolved: His plays too often result in two-point jump shots. They are brilliantly concocted to get the shooter open, but the net result is a paucity of three-pointers and free throws. Especially in the modern game, two-point jumpers are the least efficient method of scoring.
Longtime Wolves fans know this from repeated memory. Under Saunders, Minnesota did indeed enjoy an eight-year playoff run, but it was accomplished mostly due to the magnificence of [Kevin] Garnett, and despite a woeful absence of treys and free throws.
Furthermore, Saunders did not appear to adapt as the game evolved. During his three seasons in Detroit, the Pistons steadily declined in their NBA ranking for three-point attempts, going from tenth to nineteenth to twenty-second, while they never rose above 22nd place in their number of free throw attempts. Granted, Detroit had its own successful identity as a defensive ballclub and it would have been very difficult for Saunders to change the culture on such a veteran roster.
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All of this is problematic for the long-term development of the young players, especially if Towns isn't allowed to realize his full potential as a rim-protecting stretch 5. But a coaching change can solve it, and the perfect man for the job is sitting out this year, waiting for an opportunity in 2016-17.
Everything aligns perfectly.
As Minnesota owner Glen Taylor told Fox Sports North's Phil Ervin, Saunders does have a job for "another year or so":
"I'm not going to start out saying that he has to get another coach. He has worked like the dickens this year to get these guys ready, and he's taken a lot of losses and stuff just because he's working for the future, and if he thought it was in the best interest of the team to continue on for another year or so, I'm sure I would go with that.
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So long as he's willing to cede control to a fresh face in the summer of 2016, that's fine. Especially because Scott Brooks, the recently fired head coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder, will be looking to return to the coaching ranks, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Brooks is the ideal fit for the future Wolves, and the roster would be rather similar to the type of team he inherited for the 2008-09 season, when Kevin Durant had one year of experience and Russell Westbrook was a precocious combo guard coming out of UCLA.
Since then, he's proved that he's a master of player development, even if his work with X's and O's leaves something to be desired. That's the type of head coach Minnesota needs, not an old-school one who prefers to let his players police the locker room and provide heavy doses of leadership.
Minnesota is brimming over with potential, and it'll still be a few years before we get to see the final product.
The blueprint, however, is already clear.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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