Philadelphia Eagles: Realistic 2015 Predictions for Every Major Stat Category
If one thing is for certain with Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly, it’s that the 2015 team he puts on the field will be vastly different than the 2014 squad that won 10 games but missed the playoffs.
Kelly metaphorically took an axe to last year’s roster, parting ways with a handful of talented players from the Andy Reid era, including All-Pro running back LeSean McCoy and Pro Bowl quarterback Nick Foles. Kelly signed free agents DeMarco Murray and Byron Maxwell to massive contracts, traded for oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford to run his offense and added former Oregon Duck Kiko Alonso to an underrated Eagles front seven.
There are several keys to the Eagles season, notably Bradford’s ability to return from a twice-surgically-repaired knee. Kelly wasn’t shy in acquiring players fresh off season-ending injuries, and he’s either buying low or putting full faith in his sports science regime that includes lots of smoothies and monitored sleep.
If everything goes right for the Eagles, Kelly will look like an innovative genius, quite possibly a mastermind in the same mold as Bill Belichick. If Bradford gets hurt and the Eagles stumble—or even if Kelly finishes his third year at the helm without a postseason victory—the boos will rain down loud and clear from Philadelphia fans.
Kelly has proven so far he knows what he’s doing; he took a 4-12 team to consecutive 10-win seasons, and he’s never won fewer than double-digit regular-season games at any level in his head-coaching collegiate or professional history. He was also able to coax franchise records in points scored for the ’13 Eagles, and then again in ’14, so these ’15 stat predictions may look optimistic, but they could just be belief in the Kelly way.
Wins
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Let’s start with the most important statistic: wins. Are Philadelphia Eagles fans realistic to think their team could be viewed as the favorite in the NFC East or is that merely crazed optimism?
The Linemakers report the over-under for the Eagles’ 2015 win total as nine, which would likely put the Eagles on the brink of the playoffs. Historically, nine-win teams have the best chance at either grabbing the final wild-card slot or just missing the postseason, which means winning that Week 17 matchup with the New York Giants could prove pivotal.
At first glance, the nine-win prediction seems low, and a further look into the upcoming schedule solidifies this belief. The Eagles have the 10th-easiest strength of schedule in 2015 (per Blogging the Boys), and they get the good fortune of not facing a single team coming off of a bye. In addition, the schedule-makers gave Kelly a full 10 days to prepare for his matchup with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, and there are three straight home contests in December.
There’s no one game on the schedule that looks like it should be a loss. That doesn’t mean the Eagles will go undefeated, but it raises enthusiasm for the thought of a division title.
Last year, the wheels fell off for Kelly after a 9-3 start; losing three straight games gave the Eagles the dubious distinction of becoming the first team in NFL history to start 9-3 and be eliminated from the postseason hunt before Week 17.
That can’t happen again, but it should be remembered that those games were played with a backup quarterback. Kelly has also taken significant strides to improve a 31st-ranked passing defense from ’14 that couldn’t match up with top-tier wide receivers.
Predicting a win-loss total in May is no easy task and bound to cause controversy. But factoring in the success Kelly has had in his first two seasons on the job and a fairly light schedule, 11 wins seems realistic.
Prediction: 11-5 record
Points Scored
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If there’s one thing Chip Kelly-coached teams do, it’s score points. Even with a quarterback carousel of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez in 2014, the Philadelphia Eagles shattered their franchise record for points scored, scoring a whopping 32 more than the 442 they had in ’13.
That total of 474 was the third-best mark in the league, and while it’s extremely unlikely the Eagles duplicate their 11 total defensive and special teams touchdowns, it’s equally doubtful their quarterbacks combine to lead the league in interceptions again.
The Eagles matched their third-ranked scoring offense by putting up the fifth-most total yards in the league, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards. And while the franchise lost its all-time rushing leader in LeSean McCoy, it shouldn’t miss a beat with new addition DeMarco Murray, last season’s rushing champion, in the backfield.
The offense returns a top-five offensive line, led by All-Pros Jason Peters and Evan Mathis, plus standout run-blockers in Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson. A young receiving corps will need Jordan Matthews to emerge as the No. 1 target, but there’s potential with Matthews, Nelson Agholor and Josh Huff, plus tight end Zach Ertz.
As long as Kelly is sticking with his fast-paced, hurry-up offense, it’s reasonable to expect his team to rank among the league’s finest in points scored, even if the special teams scoring does drop off a little.
Prediction: 462 points
Sam Bradford’s Passing Yards
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Believe it or not, no Philadelphia Eagles quarterback has ever passed for 4,000 yards in a single season. That’s difficult to fathom, considering this franchise has had the likes of Donovan McNabb, Randall Cunningham and Ron Jaworski under center.
Chip Kelly is putting his faith in Sam Bradford, a former No. 1 overall draft pick who has missed 25 consecutive games due to ACL tears. Bradford is a onetime Heisman Trophy winner who gets rid of the football substantially quicker than Nick Foles, per NJ.com (h/t Pro Football Focus).
If Bradford can stay healthy for all 16 games—an admittedly difficult scenario to imagine considering his recent injury history—there’s no reason he shouldn’t surpass the 4,000-yard mark. The Eagles will still run the football the majority of the time in 2015, especially with a talented running back duo of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews.
Eleven different quarterbacks reached the 4,000 mark a year ago, with three more coming within a game. That’s nearly half the league over 3,700 yards. Bradford is in an impressive offense with a coach who has always made the most out of his quarterbacks, and this is the best chance Bradford will ever have to do so.
Prediction: 4,086 passing yards
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DeMarco Murray’s Rushing Yards
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Fresh off an 1,845-yard rushing season, DeMarco Murray inked a lucrative free-agent deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. He won’t be playing behind that talented Dallas offensive line, but he gets an Eagles line nearly as good when it comes to the running game.
Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have ranked in the top seven in rushing attempts both seasons, finishing first and ninth in rushing yards. Kelly will likely scale back Murray’s workload after his ridiculous 392-carry output (plus 44 more in the postseason), and a two-headed back combo of Murray and Ryan Mathews (with shades of Darren Sproles in the mix) seems likely.
Murray has had an injury history, and the history of backs fresh off a 370-carry season isn’t friendly. A conservative approach should see Murray suiting up for 14 contests and averaging close to 20 carries per game.
Prediction: 1,261 rushing yards
Jordan Matthews’ Receiving Yards
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With the departure of Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City, Jordan Matthews is now the No. 1 receiver on this Philadelphia Eagles offense. The 2014 second-round draft pick thrived in the slot as a rookie, but will now likely play more outside where he won’t win as many matchups with nickel cornerbacks based solely on his size.
Still, Chip Kelly’s offense has been very friendly to top receivers, with both DeSean Jackson and Maclin putting up over 80 catches and 1,300 yards in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The Eagles will likely spread the ball around more, with Nelson Agholor, Riley Cooper, Josh Huff, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek and the running backs all in the mix to catch passes.
It’s reasonable to think Matthews will top 1,000 yards, but the 1,300-yard total of both Jackson and Maclin may be stretching it.
Prediction: 1,113 receiving yards
Sacks
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The 2014 Philadelphia Eagles finished second in sacks (49) and first in forced fumbles (15), and they actually added more talent to the front seven. Veteran pass-rusher Trent Cole was released, but he had contributed just 17.5 sacks the previous three seasons.
Re-signing former first-round pick Brandon Graham to a four-year deal means he’s now a starter for the first time in his career, and he’s always thrived as a situational pass-rusher. One-man wrecking crew Fletcher Cox, plus Vinny Curry, Bennie Logan and Cedric Thornton are key cogs in an impressive defensive line.
The inside linebacking corps is loaded with the addition of Kiko Alonso to a unit that already included DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. And outside linebacker Connor Barwin may be the defense’s best overall pass-rusher, as he’s fresh off of a 14.5-sack campaign.
Prediction: 49 sacks
Team Interceptions
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The 2014 Philadelphia Eagles were done in by a secondary that couldn’t cover elite wide receivers and finished 31st in passing yards allowed.
Cornerbacks Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher combined for just three interceptions, plus one more from nickel corner Brandon Boykin. Safety Nate Allen led the team with four, but as a unit, the Eagles had just 12 in 16 games. Just five of those picks were made by players still on the roster.
It’s quite possible the 2015 Eagles finish near the bottom of the pack again in many major pass-defense categories. A best-case scenario for this season’s secondary is that Byron Maxwell develops into the lockdown corner that the Eagles are paying him to be and that he records a handful of interceptions.
But if rookie second-rounder Eric Rowe struggles when forced into a starting role and defensive coordinator Billy Davis can’t find an adequate replacement, it could be a long year for the defensive backfield.
Prediction: 15
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