Paul George's Return Just What the Doctor Ordered for Hopeful Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives.
At this point in the regular season, every opportunity is precious. The long-awaited return of Paul George has given the team an emotional and physical lift, and that just may be enough to put them over the top with four games remaining and Indiana just two games out of a playoff spot. The Pacers are one game back of both the Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics in the standings, but both teams hold tiebreakers over Indiana, which means the Pacers would need to finish ahead of one of those teams.
Indiana is largely fighting their way out of a hole of their own making. From Jan. 25 to March 12, they went 15-4 with a plus-8.7 point differential per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. At that point they looked poised to not just make the playoffs, but to also provide a stiff challenge when they got there.
Excepting George, this represented the first time all season that injuries concerns receded and head coach Frank Vogel could work with his full complement of players. Hope abounded and confidence swelled.
Unfortunately, that stretch of dominance was followed by a 2-9 run with a minus-8.4 point differential per 100 possessions that saw them leapfrogged in the standings by the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat. After that valley of terrible play, the Pacers essentially needed to peak and win out the rest of their schedule to secure a spot in the playoffs.
Enter Paul George.
Indiana has won three in a row, the last two with George back in the lineup.
It’s been eight months since his catastrophic leg injury in a Team USA scrimmage. Rust is both expected and evident so far, but even in the controlled 15 minutes a night he has played, there are some really positive signs, both for George individually and the Pacers collectively.
These two wins, both blowouts, have been against the Heat and the New York Knicks. A small sample and uneven level of competition, to be sure, but in the 30 minutes George has played, the Pacers outscored the Heat and Knicks by an absurd 26.9 points per 100 possessions.
Looking at his statistics emphasizes where he is individually:
| PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | 3PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 36.8% | 44.4% |
George is clearly not himself on offense yet, but he’s shown enough flashes to feed optimism. Those 30 minutes have also been a reminder of how broad his offensive skill set is and how many things he can do that aren't replicated anywhere else on the roster.
Of their regular rotation, the Pacers' most-used players fall within a usage rate band of roughly 22.0 to 24.0 percent. Rodney Stuckey, Roy Hibbert, David West, C.J. Miles and Luis Scola all sit within that range. In the broader context, those numbers are fairly low and mark Indiana as a team without a dominant individual scorer.
George Hill’s usage rate (24.3) is the highest on the team, but ranks 50th in the league among players who have played at least 1,000 minutes. Basic math then tells us that most teams in the league have at least two players on their roster who carry a bigger offensive load than Hill does for the Pacers.
Last season, George’s usage rate was at 28.3 percent. So far in his return, it’s up to an astronomical 40.1—Russell Westbrook territory (38.3). His efficiency isn’t there yet, but he’s making good things happen with those possessions.
George has already attempted six free throws, putting him on pace for a career-high rate of free throws attempted per 36 minutes. According to the NBA’s Player Tracking statistics, he’s also driving frequently—about six times per 36 minutes. The Pacers are averaging 1.40 points per drive on those plays, by far the best ratio on the team. Rodney Stuckey is the next closest at 1.28.
A high-usage scorer is not necessarily a prerequisite for great offense. But the Pacers don’t have the kind of smoothly collaborative offensive system of the Atlanta Hawks or San Antonio Spurs. Hill has done an admirable job as the primary offensive weapon, but having George back to help break down the defense and soak up some extra offensive possessions could be a huge deal over their last four games.
There is also the matter of George’s defense. As a group, the Pacers have been incredibly inconsistent on that end over the last month, and having George’s steady hand on the perimeter could smooth out some of the rough edges. In his first game back, against Miami, there were several strong defensive possessions from George, including this one against Dwyane Wade:
Jon Washburn of 8points9seconds.com focused in on this play as part of larger breakdown of George's return.
"This play was a fantastic sign for Pacers fans who had wondered how well he was going to be able to defend. Throughout the night, George shimmied and fought around screens better than one could have hoped, even in his limited minutes. But on this play early in the fourth quarter, he practically mirrored Dwyane Wade en route to forcing a badly missed jumper.
Perhaps more importantly, George trusted his right leg on the entire play, first as he planted and angled Wade to go left, and then elevating off of it to contest the long jump shot at the end. With better awareness from his teammates, PG just might have gotten a fast break dunk out of it…or, at least an attempt at a fast break something.
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While his presence in the lineup helps at a functional level, both offensively and defensively, George’s impact can also be seen in the psychological effects on his teammates.
Forward Solomon Hill talked with the Indianapolis Star’s David Woods about the extra motivation George’s return has brought:
"Always, you want to extend the season, but when you have a guy that's come from something he's been through, I think nobody should have an excuse as for why they shouldn't put forth the effort. If you're banged up, you're banged up. But if you're out there, you should give 100 percent. Because we have a guy who came back early and he's trying to give his 100 percent, too.
"
Besides adding a little extra drive, George's talent brings confidence to the Pacers, even if it's moderated by his minutes limit and continuing recovery. He is among the most talented players in the league, and the Pacers have been phenomenal over the past few years with him, Hill, West and Hibbert on the floor together. His teammates know as much and are responding.
It will probably take four straight wins for the Pacers to get into the playoffs. Their remaining schedule presents plenty of challenges—at the Detroit Pistons, at home for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Washington Wizards and then on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies to close out the campaign.
Their window is still open by the slimmest of margins.
Having their best player on the court again may be just enough to get them through.
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