Ranking the Top 10 Candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year
From the very beginning, it was going to be No. 1 vs. No. 2—Andrew Wiggins vs. Jabari Parker—for NBA Rookie of the Year. When Parker went down with a torn ACL on Dec. 15, most of the basketball punditry declared this particular contest to be a one-horse race, but Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel and Elfrid Payton never got the memo to stop running.
The emergence of the aforementioned three, coupled with a recent string of strong performances by previously unheralded NBA neophytes such as Jordan Clarkson and Tarik Black, has helped dispel the disappointing rookie class narrative and create an unexpectedly exciting Rookie of the Year competition.
With the end of the regular season less than a month away and the race to be named NBA’s best rookie as lively as it’s been all year, let’s take a look at my top 10 candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year.
Ranking Criteria and Honorable Mention
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My rankings take into account both standard statistics (points, rebounds, assists, blocks, etc.) and advanced statistics (on/off, win shares, true shooting percentage, etc.) while giving weighted value to rookies getting solid minutes on teams still playing meaningful March games.
While someone such as Andrew Wiggins has produced at a high level for a longer period of time than someone such as Nikola Mirotic, the fact that he’s doing so for the team with the second-worst record in the NBA hurts his standing, similar to how great players on terrible teams rarely get any MVP consideration.
The weightiness of such criteria isn’t enough to push, say, Marcus Smart ahead of Wiggins, but it certainly makes a player such as Bojan Bogdanovic’s case more compelling than if he were playing for a middling team already eliminated from playoff contention.
With apologies to Langston Galloway (toiling away on the worst team in the NBA), Rodney Hood (too inconsistent early on), Mitch McGary (too many missed games) and K.J. McDaniels (the trade from Tankadelphia to Houston has sapped his playing time), let’s get to the list.
10. Tarik Black, Houston Rockets/Los Angeles Lakers
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Tarik Black is a garbage man.
The undrafted rookie out of Memphis and Kansas does the deeds no one wants to do, and he does it with a smile on his face. He’s a grinder who appears to have been awkwardly transplanted from the rugged 1990s NBA to today’s more uptempo, run-and-fun style game.
That still hasn’t stopped Black from contributing in his freshman season in the league. The 23-year-old provides a furious intensity that many a team would love to employ, even in today’s game.
Even in a rookie season filled with some forced migration, Black has managed to stay on his feet and prove that he can be a respectable NBA role player.
Black was waived by the Houston Rockets in late December to make room for Josh Smith, but since joining the Lakers, the burly 6’11” bruiser has averaged 6.0 points on 54.8 percent shooting to go along with 5.8 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in just under 20 minutes per game.
Over the past month, he’s been even better, as his averages have jumped to 7.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.0 block per game in a starting role.
An argument could be made that Black deserves to be even higher on this list. His 2.1 win shares rank fourth among all rookies, and his 5.5 rebounds per game are good for third.
Still, the fact that Black is even being mentioned as one of the 10 best rookies this seasons speaks to the kind of drive he has. He’ll likely never be an All-Star or even a full-time starter on a playoff team, but Black will never have a problem dancing the bloody tango down low—he’ll be a cheap, valuable asset for years to come.
9. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
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LaVine over Black was actually a more difficult decision than one might think, but what pushed the 2015 NBA Slam Dunk Contest champion slightly ahead was the fact that he’s played 15 more games while handling one of the more unforgiving duties in the NBA: rookie point guard on a terrible team.
Anyone who watched the No. 13 overall pick in this year’s Slam Dunk Contest knows LaVine’s ability to levitate is enough to make David Blaine jealous, but there’s more to the 20-year-old than his otherworldly capacity to defy Sir Isaac Newton’s law of universal gravitation.
LaVine’s 3.2 assists per game trail only Payton and Marcus Smart among rookies, and despite some early-season shooting woes, LaVine has shot 45.7 percent on threes in 18 games following the All-Star break.
His overall field-goal percentage on the season is just 41.6 percent, but the recent confidence the springy rookie has shown from deep has inspired hope in the beleaguered Timberwolves fans.
With Ricky Rubio down for most of the season and Mo Williams sent away to Charlotte in a midseason trade, LaVine has been thrust into a more prominent role far earlier than most expected.
While he's experienced the typical rookie growing pains—excessive turnovers, poor shooting, questionable defense—as Josh Martin wrote earlier this week, the former UCLA Bruin has already proved he can leave behind a legacy bigger than YouTube videos and six-second Vines.
8. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
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Our second of three European imports on this list, Bogdanovic has shot up the Rookie of the Year rankings lately due to a strong string of recent play for a team locked in a supremely mediocre five-way battle for the Eastern Conference's final two playoff spots.
The 25-year-old Croatian only averages 8.3 points and 2.8 rebounds per game, but his 1.6 win shares are seventh among all rookies. His ceiling is lower than most on this list due to his age and more limited skill set, but when the Nets wing gets it going, he can transform into the dangerous outside shooter Brooklyn needs.
Brooklyn is 14-14 when Bogdanovic scores 10 points or more. Just being .500 doesn't sound like much, but when you take into account the fact that the Nets are 16-26 when he doesn't, you begin to see the value he has.
With the playoff chase in full bloom, Bogdanovic has been at his best. Maybe it was having the game played at his home court, but since the All-Star break, Bogdanovic has averaged 10.8 points on 50.4 percent shooting from the field and 39.2 percent from behind the arc. His 59.2 true shooting percentage is the highest among all rookies on this list since the All-Star break.
Bogdanovic doesn't get a lot of love from the casual NBA observer, but his high basketball IQ, unselfish demeanor and sweet shooting touch have Nets fans excited about his future.
“I really don’t want to talk about me,” Bogdanovic told the New York Daily News following a perfect 8-of-8 shooting effort in a 123-111 win over Indiana on Saturday. “We are playing great basketball the last couple of games. We have to continue like this. Every game is like a final for us because we are fighting for a playoff [spot] and I hope we’re going to make it.”
If Bogdanovic can keep up this torrid shooting pace, the rookie might wind up being one of a select few NBA newbies with a key role on an NBA playoff team.
7. Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers
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Depending on your general outlook on life, the fact that two are Lakers on this list is either an indicator of a fruitful future or a sign of just how far the Black Mambas have fallen. I tend to lean toward the former (I'm not sure Kobe would agree), as the No. 46 pick in the draft has all the makings of a second-round steal.
Perhaps most endearing about Clarkson is his willingness to recognize his flaws and accept what any rookie must: He needs a lot of improvement.
“I think I took a few steps back,” Clarkson told Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News and InsideSoCal.com following Wednesday's 101-99 overtime victory over the Timberwolves. “I didn’t take care of the ball well. I was holding it a little bit too much on the offensive end. I have to keep growing, watch the film and learn from it.”
Clarkson, who calmly drained two game-winning free throws in the closing seconds of that game, may have been just a bit hard on himself.
The 6'5”, 193-pound rookie guard has been playing on par with the likes of Wiggins, Smart and Payton over the past month, despite their loftier draft status.
With fellow rookie Zach LaVine using the basketball court like his own personal moon bounce, it's been easy for those who have tuned the Lakers out this season to overlook the explosive athletic ability of Clarkson, but the former Missouri Tiger has used his superior athleticism even more effectively than LaVine.
Clarkson ranks fourth among all rookies in scoring (10.2 points) despite playing just 22.4 minutes per game. And since February, the Lakers guard has been even better.
Since the All-Star break, Clarkson has averaged 14.9 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game while posting the third-highest usage percentage among all rookies averaging at least 15 minutes per game.
Clarkson now has the ball in his hands nearly a quarter of the time he's on the court, and a lot of good has come of it. The rook just continues to reward the Lakers' decision to begin playing him over 30 minutes per game.
Tuesday against the Thunder, facing the masked menace that is Russell Westbrook, Clarkson had the best performance of his young career (30 PTS, 12-19 FG, 7 AST, 4 REB, 3 BLK). The Lakers lost by 10, but the fledgling pro more than held his own.
If this second-round pick can improve his outside-shooting ability to keep defenders honest, he could wind up becoming a special player out of a most unexpected draft position.
6. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
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He's big. He's nasty. He's aggressive—often too aggressive (3.3 fouls per game). Basically, Jusuf Nurkic plays exactly how one might imagine a 6'11”, 280-pound center nicknamed The Bosnian Bear would play.
The 20-year-old has had a bit of a tumultuous first season in America. Twenty-six times, he's started for the Nuggets, and 26 times, he's come off the bench. His minutes, his play and even the status of his coaching staff have been erratic this season. The whole slow-burning Brian Shaw saga wasn't good for anyone, especially a rookie new to the American game.
Despite a sprained ankle that cost him eight games and has slowed his play down of late, Nurkic still ranks second among all rookies in player efficiency rating (15.6). The No. 16 pick also ranks second in rebounding (6.4), fourth in double-doubles (4) and second in blocks (1.3) among his peers.
Nurkic only averages 18 minutes per game on the season, largely because of his foul troubles. If Nurkic could learn to be a little more patient, the European could develop into a true force on the block for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets are simply a better team when Nurkic plays. Denver outscores its opponents by 1.5 points with the big Bosnian on the court but are outscored by 5.0 points when he sits. If he can manage to stay on the court just a few minutes more per game, Nurkic could find his way up a few spots in the rankings before the season comes to a close.
5. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
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The No. 6 pick in the 2014 NBA draft has had an uneven season for a team that has seen a lot of roster upheaval. With Rajon Rondo, the last member of the Celtics' 2008 NBA championship team, gone, Smart has been tasked with doing everything he can to keep Boston's playoff chances alive.
Smart is averaging 7.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists (second among qualified rookies) and 1.4 steals (third among qualified rookies) this year over 24.4 minutes per game. Shooting woes (35.8% FG, 33.6% 3PT) have plagued him all season long, but his tenacious defense and improving rebounding have kept him valuable to a thin Celtics roster.
Even though his numbers look brutal on the surface, Smart ranks third among all rookies with 2.2 win shares. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy even outpaces Wiggins and Payton in that category, showcasing that standard statistics aren't the whole story with a player such as Smart.
With his minutes up to 30.4 following the All-Star break, Smart has seen his scoring increase to 9.8, but his assists have slipped to 2.7. Barring an unexpectedly strong finish to the season and a Celtics playoff appearance, Smart's play won't be enough to propel him past any of the next four players on my rankings.
4. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
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It's most likely too little too late for Payton to push his way into the top three, but boy, has he been fun to watch lately.
The dynamic point guard out of the University of Louisiana Lafayette has been on an absolute tear lately, recently becoming the first rookie with back-to-back triple doubles in nearly 18 years.
In consecutive games against two of the best teams in the Western Conference—Portland and Dallas—Payton totaled 37 points (16-23 FG), 22 assists and 20 rebounds.
Since the All-Star break, Payton has essentially morphed into a miniature Westbrook, complete with the same statistical strengths (11.6 PTS, 8 AST, 5.9 REB, 1.7 STL) and weaknesses (43% FG, 2.8 TOV). His shooting is still a weakness, but his quickness and court vision allow him to break down a defense better than any rookie in this class.
The Magic have been playing much better lately, but they're still one of the worst teams in the league. Were Payton putting up these kinds of numbers on a team such as Boston or Brooklyn, he'd be in contention for Rookie of the Year.
As it is, Payton will have to be content with a strong finish and a bright future in Orlando—not a bad consolation prize.
3. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
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It's not necessarily that Wiggins has lost this award; it's more like the two rookies in front of him have turned their play up to a level not many expected from either so early in their respective careers.
The No. 1 overall pick in the draft has turned in an excellent rookie season to this point. He leads all rookies in points (16.0) and minutes (35.5), and he is in the top five in rebounds (4.4) and steals (1.1).
The current basketball pride of Canada with Steve Nash now retired, Wiggins has already proved himself to be a prolific scorer. He has 23 games of 20 or more points this season even though he's only hit at least one three in 25 of the 71 games he's played in this season.
Wiggins just turned 20 in February, and he's already one of the better, more engaged wing defenders in the league. On pure talent and upside alone, Wiggins is the rookie most franchises would love to build a team around, but despite the four-time Western Conference Rookie of the Month averaging a rookie-best 18.2 points per game since the All-Star break, he's been slightly overtaken by two burgeoning Eastern Conference stars.
2. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
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DeAndre Jordan. Anthony Davis. Rudy Gobert. And now, Nerlens Noel.
The latest in a batch of inconceivably athletic big men with preposterous wingspans and superior defensive instincts, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft is already one of the best defenders in the NBA. Noel not only leads all rookies in double-doubles (15), rebounds (8.0), blocks (2.0) and steals (1.8), but he actually ranks fifth and ninth in the entire NBA in the latter two categories, respectively.
With his pristine, throwback flat top and 6'11" frame patrolling the paint, the 76ers have gone from laughing stock to respectable defensive unit. Opponents shoot a measly 44.7 percent at the rim against Noel and his intimidating brand of defense, good for sixth among players who defend at least four shots at the rim per game.
Noel and his Stretch Armstrong length have opened eyes around the league, leaving many to think that Sam Hinkie might actually be a mad genius. And even though Noel's offensive game was supposed to come along slowly, he's been more than adequate (13.1 PTS, 49.2% FG) since the All-Star break.
Noel is already a Category 5 hurricane in the paint, and if his offense continues to develop, he might even overtake Wiggins as the most valuable rookie in this class (even though he was drafted in 2013).
Still, the 76ers are one of the worst teams in the NBA, while the player ahead of him plays for a team right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff fight.
Noel will have his time to shine, but this rookie class has suddenly brought the NBA an entirely new beard to fear (sorry, Mr. Harden).
1. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
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When Jabari Parker went down, it was almost inconceivable to believe that anyone would be able to overtake Wiggins in the Rookie of the Year race, let alone a backup power forward averaging less than 20 minutes and 10 points per game. Yet, over the past two months, Nikola Mirotic has been as good as any forward in the NBA.
Mirotic's recent good fortune has unfortunately come at the expense of his fallen teammates. With Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson missing a combined 66 games (and counting) this season, the 24-year-old Spanish transfer has been thrust into a key role on a team that should at the very least contend for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Mirotic hasn't missed a single game for a team that desperately needs roster stability. It's not very often a rookie can enter a deep, veteran, perennial playoff contender and take on a lead role, but Mirotic has done so when Coach Thibs and the city of Chicago have needed it most.
Though Mirotic's counting stats (9.8 PTS, 4.9 REB, 0.7 BLK) on the season don't scream “Rookie of the Year,” since the All-Star break, the 2013 Spanish League MVP’s production has dramatically improved for a team some might confuse with AMC’s The Walking Dead.
In the 19 games Mirotic has played following the All-Star Game, he's averaged 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. His usage rating has skyrocketed to a robust 28.9 percent, compared to just 19.3 percent in 54 games prior to the All-Star break.
"He's just a matchup problem," the Bulls' Mike Dunleavy told the Chicago Tribune's Steven Goldstein. "There are not a lot of 4s in the league who can guard him, get on the perimeter and challenge his 3s. He can put it on the floor and finish. He's a big weapon for us. His play lately has been great."
Mirotic's 4.9 win shares blow away every single rookie in the league, and he's already developed a knack for clutch heroics. The Bulls' new bearded hero has averaged 7.7 points in the fourth quarter since the All-Star break, which trails only Russell Westbrook, Isaiah Thomas and LeBron James—pretty good company for a guy with 73 NBA games to his name.
If you're using a purely statistically based argument, Mirotic would lose out to Noel, Wiggins and even Payton, but Mirotic means far more to a team that only has 12 fewer losses than their three teams combined.
I don't think he'll win the popular vote, but Mirotic is my Rookie of the Year, and come playoff time, a lot of voters are going to be left feeling pretty foolish.
All statistics are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
