Projecting Chicago Bulls' Best and Worst Eastern Conference Playoff Matchups

The Chicago Bulls are gearing up for the postseason. Who are they likely to play? Who do they want to play? And what seed do they want land?

They currently reside in third, after trouncing the Toronto Raptors by 13 points on March 25. Let’s quickly review the current standings situation, per NBA.com/Stats, focusing only on the teams which could potentially condern the Bulls:

Seed	Team	Wins	Losses	Behind	.500+ Opp.	SOS	Net Rating, Last 5
2	Cleveland Cavaliers	47	26	8	2	0.416	10.2
3	Chicago Bulls	44	29	11	2	0.422	8.8
4	Toronto Raptors	42	30	12.5	1	0.403	-2.4
5	Washington Wizards	40	32	14.5	4	0.476	-12.0
6	Milwaukee Bucks	35	36	19	4	0.470	-4.4
7	Miami Heat	33	38	21	5	0.489	1.1

The Playoff Picture

If the Bulls end up tied with the Raptors, Toronto would win the tiebreaker by virtue of its division championship, even though Chicago has the season sweep.

And while the Bulls are only three ahead of the Washington Wizards in the loss column, if Chicago goes 6-1 against teams with losing records, it clinches at least the No. 4 seed. However, it’s unlikely it passes the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 2 seed.

Meanwhile, with Toronto’s super-easy schedule for the rest of the season, it’s improbable the Wizards passes it up. 

So Chicago and Toronto will occupy the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds, though who has which is a toss-up. Washington is more or less locked in at No. 5, and Nos. 6 and 7 come down to a battle between Miami and Milwaukee—both of whom have fairly tough schedules the rest of the way.

The Bucks are playing a nightmarish sequence of games, starting on March 28 against the Golden State Warriors, followed by the Atlanta Hawks on March 30 and the Bulls on April 1.

But the Heat will have an equally difficult path in the same period of time, with the Hawks on March 27, the San Antonio Spurs on March 31 and the Cavs on April 2. They’ll have a chance to close the gap against the faltering Bucks over that stretch, but it’s no guarantee.

That means the Bulls have three possible opponents in the first round: the Wizards, the Bucks and the Heat. Two of those three teams have sent the Bulls packing in three of the last four years.

Which team do the Bulls most and least want to face? For our purposes here, we’ll assume they are at full strength. They have everyone but Derrick Rose right now, and based on Nick Friedell of ESPN’s reporting, it looks like Rose will be back before the end of the regular season:

"

Rose is hopeful that after a week or two of taking contact in practice that he could return to the floor, but he isn't sure exactly how his body will respond. Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said Rose has been doing everything in practice aside from taking contact and likes the way the former MVP is progressing.

"I'm feeling good," Rose said. "I'm trying to do all the right things, put all the positives in the bag and just try to go with it. It's something that I've been doing for a long time with rehab. It's a grind -- definitely a grind -- but I'm getting used to it."

"

Most Want: Bucks

This is easy. Everyone wants the Bucks right now. Theoretically, if the Bulls drew the Raptors, though, that might even be a better matchup.

Based on regular-season games, the Bulls are plus-11.3 per game against the Raptors, their third-easiest opponent and 11.0 against the Bucks, their fourth-easiest.

In the three games the two teams have played, the Bulls have led 125 of the 144 minutes, and Milwaukee hasn’t led beyond the eight-minute mark of the third quarter.

Furthermore, the Bulls have owned them in virtually every facet of the game, as shown by the chart above. The Bulls are outscoring, outshooting, outrebounding and outpassing the Bucks. The only thing Milwaukee has an edge in is turnover ratio.

And two of the three games came before the Bucks got worse, trading Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams. The Bucks are 4-10 when their new acquisition starts. And the Bulls had their full starting five only once.

So, if anything, the numbers are weighted “in favor” of the Bucks.

In fact, if there’s an argument against the Bucks, it might be that they’re too easy. The Bulls might want more of a challenge before heading into a series against with the Cavs, particularly since Rose may still be shaking off rust.

Barring an unforeseeable disaster, it’s hard to see how the Bucks give the Bulls (or anyone) much of a challenge.

Least Want: Washington Wizards

The Bulls would be favored in a series over either the Wizards or the Heat, but the former would be the tougher challenge.  Of the opponents the Bulls could potentially face in the first round, the Wizards are the only ones who have outscored the Bulls in their regular-season series.

Additionally, the same basic team beat the Bulls in last year’s playoffs in a relatively quick five-game series, albeit with Paul Pierce now filling the role of Trevor Ariza.

That said, the Bulls still split this year’s regular-season series 2-2. , in the one game that the Bulls had their full starting five, Chicago won handily in a game that saw its lead extend

Also, the Bulls are underrepresented by the numbers since they had their full starting five in just one of those game. Chicago won it handily. Its lead extend into double digits in the fourth quarter and the Wizards only led for only 19 seconds after the first four minutes were played.

And while the Wizards haven’t changed much from last postseason, the Bulls have. Rose is back. They’ve added Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic. And Jimmy Butler is arguably this year’s Most Improved Player.

Since the Wizards last beat the Bulls on Jan. 15, their record is just 13-19 with an offensive rating of only 99.6. So it’s not like the Wizards are a lock to win the series either.

There is a myth that the Bulls struggle against the Wizards bigs. But I looked at what Joakim Noah did while Nene was on the court combined with what Gasol did against Marcin Gortat and vice versa. The results are shockingly close:

Additionally, the Bulls’ combo is 50.0 percent from the field while the Wizards are 49.6 percent. So really, the big-man production is nearly identical.

So, why do the Bulls’ struggle? In the 90 minutes Rose and Jimmy Butler have been on the court together, the Wizards have outscored the Bulls by 41 points, which is the Bulls’ worst pairing against the Wiz. Furthermore, four of the Bulls’ five worst pairings include Butler.

Butler’s 25.7 percent shooting is the worst of any team he’s faced this year, per Basketball-Reference.com. He averages just 11.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists. When being guarded by Bradley Beal, he shoots 27.3 percent and is minus-37 in 105 minutes. Meanwhile Beal is shooting 51.4 percent against Butler and 66.7 percent from three.

If you’re looking for something to be optimistic about, look to the Bulls’ bench, which has outscored the Wizards’ reserves by 8.0 points per game, and that was before Mirotic started setting the world on fire.

Still, there’s enough to still make the Wizards a cause for concern, particularly in the light of last year’s departure.

 All stats are provided by NBA.com/Stats and Basketball-Reference.com.