Projecting the Oklahoma City Thunder's 2015 Free-Agency Big Board
Free agency isn’t a commonly used tool for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Between the small market and the relative cost inefficiency of most free-agent signings, general manager Sam Presti has used trades and the NBA draft as his primary building blocks. The status quo will prevail again this summer, as OKC’s payroll situation prohibits them from making a splash on the open market.
The good news for the Thunder is that they currently have the deepest roster in the franchise’s short history. Only tinkering—not drastic change—is required. The biggest needs are shooting guard, backup small forward and potentially at center, depending on what happens with Enes Kanter (who is a restricted free agent).
Based on their current payroll, OKC is already near the projected luxury tax line for next season (approximately $81 million, according to Larry Coon, author of CBAFAQ.com), and that figure doesn’t include a contract for Kanter. As a result, the Thunder are slated to have only the taxpayer mid-level exception (approximately $3.3 million, per Coon) at their disposal to sign free agents this summer.
Another factor in the discussion is limited roster space. There is only room for two more players, and those spots may not even be available to external free agents if OKC re-signs Kanter and promotes Josh Huestis from the D-League.
Presti will have to choose very carefully with so little cap room to work with, and these are 10 of the top names he may pursue. I’ve tried to include only the realistic options, so you won’t find any of the headliners (e.g. Marc Gasol, Jimmy Butler, etc.) on this big board.
1. Enes Kanter, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Agent Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $5.69 million
As a restricted free agent, the Thunder have the right to match any offer sheet Kanter signs. More importantly, they hold his Bird rights, which allows them to exceed the salary cap to re-sign him. That’s an extremely valuable tool for a team without cap room, and it means the aforementioned $3.3 million mid-level exception wouldn’t be used for the big man.
Kanter is not only the best player Presti has a realistic chance of signing, but he’s become an integral part of this Thunder team. He’s added a completely new dimension to the OKC offense, as noted by Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman:
"Kanter, in particular, has altered the dynamics of the Thunder’s offense since his arrival from Utah. He’s the first legit post-up presence OKC has had and already, in 14 games since the trade, has all five 20-10 games from a Thunder center in history. He’s averaging 17.8 points and 11.1 rebounds on 56 percent shooting this month.
Kanter, clearly, is playing with a freedom and joy he lacked during a tumultuous end in Utah. He’s pointed to a firmer role and winning culture as the reasons. ‘We’re playing for a ring,’ he says. But the Thunder’s expressed commitment to him long-term also seems to be a factor.
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His defensive limitations are glaring, but OKC has the rim protectors to compensate for them. On offense, he’s already established great chemistry with Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. A “core four” of Kanter, Ibaka, Westbrook and Kevin Durant is an extremely potent offensive lineup.
Even if some other team signs him to a big offer sheet, the impending salary-cap leap in 2016 means OKC can match and still only pay the luxury tax in one season (2015-16). Kanter is young, offensively gifted and already has a rapport with his teammates. He’s the unquestioned No. 1 priority on Presti’s free-agent big board.
2. Wesley Matthews, SG, Portland Trail Blazers
Free Agent Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $7.25 million
His season-ending Achilles tendon tear is the only reason Matthews is on this list. As one of the league’s premier three-and-D players, OKC would be overjoyed with his presence on the roster. He would instantly make the Thunder a heavy title favorite and plug up the biggest hole they have at shooting guard.
Even with the injury, it’s extremely unlikely he signs a contract OKC can afford. With other three-and-D players like Danny Green, Khris Middleton and Arron Afflalo also entering free agency, however, there is a microscopic chance that the market for Matthews is colder than expected as a result of his injury.
3. Pero Antic, C, Atlanta Hawks
Free Agent Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $1.25 million
Antic is only on the big board as a contingency plan if Kanter leaves. If that scenario were to play out, center would overtake shooting guard as the biggest need for the front office (hence the No. 3 ranking). As unappetizing as OKC’s shooting guard pupu platter is, they still have three rotation-worthy wings (Andre Roberson, Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow) to choose from.
Without Kanter, their big-man rotation flips from a strength to a weakness. Ibaka and Steven Adams are a fine starting duo, but relying on Nick Collison and Mitch McGary to fill in the rest of the frontcourt minutes is a concern. Collison's best days are behind him, McGary still has a long way to go defensively and neither is a real center. They are fortunate enough to have an in-house, starting-caliber center in Adams, but Antic would provide reliable depth as a backup.
He’s not even shooting a good percentage from beyond the arc this season (29.7 percent), but he draws centers out of the paint and creates some funky spacing as a result. He’s nowhere near Kanter as an offensive player, but his unique skill set means he could bring some intriguing offensive dynamics to OKC.
Antic isn’t a great defender, but he’s surprisingly effective around the rim, according to NBA.com. He’s also a smart, skilled passer and a reliable rebounder. At a near-minimum salary, Antic would be a high-quality backup for Adams.
4. Jared Dudley, G/F, Milwaukee Bucks
Free Agent Type: Early Termination Option
2014-15 Salary: $4.25 million
The early termination option means Dudley would need to opt out of his current contract and leave $4.25 million on the table to become a free agent. His agent isn’t going to condone such an action unless he’s confident Dudley will earn more than that on the open market.
So Dudley winding up in OKC will take some miscalculation, but that’s been known to happen before, and he would be nice fit for the Thunder. His three-point shooting plummeted last year due to a knee injury, but he’s back to an impressive 39.9 percent clip this season. He’s capable of guarding positions 2 through 4, and that versatility makes him a possibility as a starting shooting guard or Durant’s backup off the bench.
Despite his current shooting slump (15 percent on threes since the All-Star break), Dudley would be a significant upgrade as the only two-way shooting guard on the roster.
5. Alan Anderson, SG, Brooklyn Nets
Free Agent Type: Player Option
2014-15 Salary: $1.28 million
Every wing player from here on out is a gamble. It’s not clear if they’re better than the current 2-guards on the roster, but they all have a chance to emerge as the three-and-D guard OKC is looking for.
Anderson is a career 34.5 percent shooter from downtown, and he’s also become a reliable wing defender for the Nets. A short-term deal wouldn’t carry much risk for the Thunder, but his age (32 years old) means he’s on the downswing of his career. OKC already witnessed the shortcomings of an aging wing player expected to fill a key defensive role during their Caron Butler experiment last season.
At some point this offseason, Presti will have to make a decision on whether he wants to spend money on a 2-guard that isn’t a clear-cut upgrade. Anderson is the safest bet to rise above the rest of the bunch, but he doesn’t bring much upside.
6. Mike Dunleavy Jr., SF, Chicago Bulls
Free Agent Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $3.33 million
Dunleavy would be 35 years old at the start of next season, which is hardly a good sign for production on the perimeter. Then again, even at 34, Dunleavy is a much better all-around player than either of the options currently projected to serve as Durant’s backup next year (Perry Jones and Steve Novak).
He can play within the confines of a team defense and keep the ball moving on offense, but his true value comes as a floor-spacer. He’s knocking down a scorching 41 percent of his threes this season, and OKC could use that kind of deadly shooting off their bench.
7. Will Barton, SG, Denver Nuggets
Free Agent Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $915,243
To this point of his career, Barton’s path to playing time has been his energy. He’s a tremendous athlete capable of flying around the court and making plays. Barton has been a better long-range shooter (33 percent) since his trade to Denver, and that improvement should catch OKC’s attention.
If that refined shooting stroke is not a mirage, Barton can fill the shooting guard void for the Thunder.
8. Ed Davis, C, Los Angeles Lakers
Free Agent Type: Player Option
2014-15 Salary: $981,084
While the Lakers’ acquisition of Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer raised eyebrows last summer, most were commending their two-year deal with Ed Davis. Davis has already stated his desire to opt out this summer, according to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News, and he’s a possible option for the Thunder if they miss out on both Kanter and Antic.
Davis is still only 25 years old, and he’s a solid role player thanks to his defense, rebounding and energy. He’d be an adequate backup big man to add to the rotation.
9. Kyle Singler, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Free Agent Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $1.09 million
Singler has been awful since moving to OKC. He's shooting only 32 percent from the field, but he may be the best option to shore up the Thunder’s wing rotation. He already knows the system and his teammates, and if he regains his shooting form (over his career, he's knocked down 43 percent from the floor and 38 percent from downtown), he’s a better all-around option than Jones and Novak.
10. Justin Holiday, SG, Golden State Warriors
Free Agent Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $816,482
Justin Holiday is a complete gamble. The risk shouldn’t be high since he won’t command a hefty paycheck, but there’s a strong likelihood he will never emerge as a rotation player for the Thunder.
In limited minutes for the Warriors, Holiday has shown the makings of a reliable three-point stroke (33 percent this season) and flashes of defensive potential. He’s long-armed, athletic and has the very raw makings of a three-and-D player.
Then again, he may not even be as good as Jeremy Lamb right now. The Thunder would need to miss out on a number of other targets, turning to Holiday as a last resort. The potential is there, but he’s unlikely to move the needle for an OKC team looking to bounce back to title contention.
Note: All salary information is courtesy of ShamSports, and all statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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