Fantasy Football 2015: LeSean McCoy's Fantasy Expectations with Buffalo Bills

The deal is done. The Philadelphia Eagles traded running back and offensive backbone LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso. I have no idea if cheesesteaks and buffalo wings were also exchanged in the blockbuster.

Fantasy football owners do not care much about Alonzo—unless they are in individual defensive player leagues where his tackles could be a fantasy factor in 2015. But most, if not all fantasy owners care about McCoy, who led the league in rushing in 2013 and was third in 2014.

McCoy has been one of the most valuable players in fantasy football over the past five seasons. He has averaged 1,231 rushing yards, 395 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns per year over that span, and he has only missed a half-dozen games during that period. He does it all, he does it all well and he does it all well most of the time.

McCoy will enter the 2015 campaign as one of the top 10 players in fantasy once again, and he'll be a surefire first-round pick. But how will his fantasy value change now that his uniform has? Will going from a Chip Kelly team to a Rex Ryan team make him a rushing champion once again, or will it make him more of a middle-of-the-road running back?

Here is a look at several factors that will determine how different McCoy’s fantasy value will be now that he is in Buffalo.

Coaching and System

Rex Ryan has never been a passing-attack guru who has lifted the levels of his quarterbacks, wide receivers or tight ends in his time as a head coach. But he has also been favorable to running backs because he prefers a ground-and-pound offense to complement the above-average defenses he puts together.

Partner Ryan up with offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who preferred calling Frank Gore’s number more often than Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree’s when he ran San Francisco’s offense, and you have the makings of a run-first offense that should center around McCoy.

While Buffalo’s offense will not be as greyhound-tempo as the Philadelphia offense he just left, McCoy should get just as many touches as he has in the past and should be the focal point of the offense.

Backups

Wasn’t Fred Jackson around when Joe Ferguson was Buffalo’s quarterback? Sure feels that way. But the sturdy, steady veteran is still on the roster and shapes up to be McCoy’s backup when the season starts.

Jackson will spell McCoy, but will he steal enough touches that McCoy’s fantasy worth takes a tackle on the knee? I do not think so. Jackson is 34 years old and does not have the speed or stock with Coach Ryan to supplant McCoy if “Shady” struggles early on.

Third-string back Bryce Brown is likely more of a threat to McCoy. The two played together in Philadelphia, and Brown had the opportunity to fill in for a couple of contests after McCoy was concussed in 2012. All Brown did was rumble for 374 yards and four touchdowns in a two-week span that had his fantasy owners happier than Peyton Manning gets when he is offered another commercial.

Buffalo did not trade for McCoy to have him split carries, though. He may get spelled a few times during games, but he is the main man of the rushing attack and will likely get the bulk of the work near the goal line as well.

Blocking

Buffalo is not known for having five road-graders up front that plow gigantic holes for its running backs, but the Bills have made two free-agent signings that should upgrade the blocking in front of McCoy.

Big-mouthed and oft-troubled guard Richie Incognito was signed in early February, and as long as he keeps his mind on blocking more than bullying, he should be a starter that will give McCoy some lanes inside.

Buffalo also sneakily signed fullback Jerome Felton. Even though fullbacks are a dying breed, like big-hitting safeties and 5'8" cornerbacks, Felton is one of the few left who can pulverize linebackers and lead the way for tailbacks like McCoy.

Quarterback

This has been the offseason where teams with quarterback quandaries have gone out and acquired mediocre quarterbacks from other teams with quarterback quandaries, hoping that a new uniform and a change of scenery is all that's needed. For example, Cleveland replaced the ineffective Brian Hoyer with equally ineffective Josh McCown.

Buffalo is in the same boat. With the surprise retirement of Kyle Orton and third-year man EJ Manuel battling New York’s Geno Smith for the title of most disappointing quarterback of the 2013 draft, the Bills had a hole to fill under center.

Enter Matt Cassel, who should inspire no confidence in super sophomore Sammy Watkins or keep defenses from crowding the line on McCoy. The good news is having an average-at-best quarterback will force Buffalo to hand the ball to McCoy more often. The bad news is he will have a harder time finding room to run with defenses keying on him.

Division

The NFC East was not known for its lockdown defenses the past two years. McCoy was able to feast against the Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and rush for nearly 3,000 yards between 2013 and 2014.

Now McCoy will be in a division featuring a Miami Dolphins team that just locked up Ndamukong Suh to anchor its defense, the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and a New York Jets unit that might be the top defense in the NFL after retooling its secondary by signing old friends Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie.

So McCoy’s six division games will not be walks in the park where you can just pencil him for 120 yards and two touchdowns. That may put a dent in his production over the course of the season.

With everything factored in, I think we will get a McCoy that lands somewhere in between his 2013 and 2014 seasons stats-wise. Since the offense will revolve around him, he will get enough touches to finish with 1,280 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. He should also run angry, as he will want to prove to Kelly and other doubters that he should have never been traded. 

But do not expect him to duplicate what he did in 2013 when he ended up with 2,146 combined yards and 11 scores. He would need Kelly’s offense, a decent quarterback and an easier schedule to post those numbers again.