Dallas Mavericks' Schedule Breakdown and Predictions for Season's Final 6 Weeks
With the NBA regular season entering its final stretch, the Dallas Mavericks find themselves in a peculiar position in the Western Conference.
The Mavs are out of contention for the top spot, having fallen nine games behind the spectacular Golden State Warriors. A top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs are still within reach, but the road there will not be easy.
The Mavericks are two games ahead of the seventh-seeded San Antonio Spurs but also just 1.5 games behind the Portland Trail Blazers, who occupy the fourth position. Dallas will face those teams several times before the regular season concludes, and there will be a ton riding on those meetings.
Dallas is just 3-3 since the All-Star break, as the absence of Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons has had the team scrapping. It's not going to get any easier, as the average remaining opponent will have a winning percentage of 0.550, a figure which would rank at the very top of the strength-of-schedule rankings on ESPN.com.
There are a lot of road blocks ahead, but can the Mavs reach the postseason unscathed?
March 2-8
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Key Matchup: March 6 at Warriors.
The Mavs have already lost to Golden State twice this season, with the latest 128-114 defeat on Feb. 4 being exceptionally painful. Dallas managed to burst out to a 42-25 lead in the first quarter of that contest but lost focus and allowed the Warriors back into the game.
Stephen Curry eviscerated Dallas with his 51 points by hitting 10 of 16 three-point attempts, and there was nothing that could've stopped him on such a night.
The Mavs have shown an ability to compete with the Warriors over stretches, and they will have to remain consistent in order to take down the best team in the league.
To make matters worse, the game against the Warriors will take place on the second night of a back-to-back, as Dallas will visit the Trail Blazers in a crucial matchup on March 5.
The Mavs will start the week out by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans and will end their three-game road trip against the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Pelicans and the Lakers shouldn't pose too big of a threat, but Portland and Golden State will be tough nuts to crack on their home floors.
Weekly prediction: 2-2
March 9-15
2 of 8
Key Matchup: March 13 vs. Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers are another team Dallas hasn't managed to overcome this season, having lost by 17 and 20 points in two meetings.
The 115-98 loss at home on Feb. 9 was an ugly one. Even though the Clippers didn't have Blake Griffin in the lineup, DeAndre Jordan had a field day in Dallas' paint. He scored 22 points and grabbed 27 rebounds, whereas 11 were on the offensive glass.
The Mavericks have added some size up front with Bernard James and Amar'e Stoudemire (both 6'10") since that game, and the battle down low could very well determine the outcome of what will be an important meeting.
In general, this will be a relatively calm week for Dallas, with only two games on the schedule. Three days prior to hosting the Clippers, the Mavericks will welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers to the American Airlines Center. Both teams are tough, but Dallas should be able to grab at least one win.
Weekly prediction: 1-1
March 16-22
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Key Matchup: March 20 vs. Memphis Grizzlies.
Games between Dallas and Memphis are always intriguing. They carry some sentimental value with former Maverick Vince Carter on the opposing side as well as providing a ton of great matchups all over the floor.
The Grizzlies head into the game leading the season series 2-1. Memphis' inclination to pack the paint and force Dallas to shoot from the outside has caused some trouble. The Mavericks are a streaky jump-shooting team, and establishing a consistent offensive flow against such an opponent is tricky.
This will be an overall action-packed week for the Mavericks, who will host the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Orlando Magic before ending the week with a back-to-back against the Grizzlies and the Phoenix Suns.
The Thunder are clawing for their lives to make the playoffs. Even though there is concern regarding Kevin Durant's health, a motivated Oklahoma City is a very tough opponent.
It's certainly feasible for the Mavericks to go 3-1 in this particular week, but playing four games in six days is never easy.
Weekly prediction: 2-2
March 23-29
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Key Matchup: March 24 vs. San Antonio Spurs.
Following a one-point loss to the Spurs in the season opener, the Mavericks managed to even the score in the 99-93 victory on Dec. 20. Monta Ellis was unstoppable, pouring in 38 points on 15-of-23 shooting from the field.
The two teams will round out their season series in this particular week, meeting again on March 27. Winning the first game at home would give the Mavericks more sense of comfort heading into the instant rematch.
Dallas and San Antonio are extremely close in the standings, and that could very well continue being the case heading into these two games. The Spurs have not looked as solid as they usually do at this point of the season, and the Mavericks will need to take advantage.
Before turning the calendar to April, Dallas will also take on the Indiana Pacers, who could potentially have Paul George back in their lineup.
Weekly prediction: 2-1
March 30-April 5
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Key Matchup: April 2 vs. Houston Rockets.
This is undoubtedly the toughest of all remaining weeks for the Mavericks. They will face the Thunder, the Rockets and the Warriors in a hectic, four-day, must-see basketball marathon.
Dallas will start the month off by traveling to Oklahoma City, which is always a tough place to visit. Even with all of their injuries, the Thunder have managed to scrap together a respectable 19-8 record at home, which is still misleading as to how good they are in front of their fans.
Following the game against the Thunder, Dallas will travel home to host Houston. The Rockets will also be on the second night of a back-to-back, which should even out the odds.
Houston is yet another team with a winning record against Dallas this season, although the Mavs did come out victorious in their last meeting.
After one day of rest, the Warriors will come into town for the final meeting of the season. Needless to say, it will be another difficult challenge to overcome especially coming off the two previous games. This will be an incredibly tough week for the Mavericks, but they should be able to grab at least one win, presumably against Houston.
Weekly prediction: 1-2
April 6-12
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Key Matchup: April 8 vs. Phoenix Suns.
When the Mavericks get to their April 8 game against the Suns, they will have completed the toughest stretch. The last couple of games of the regular season will offer some softer opposition and perhaps an opportunity for head coach Rick Carlisle to rest some players.
The Suns will be the toughest opponent of the week. However, Phoenix is 2-4 since making a ton of bold moves during the trade deadline and appears to have given up on its postseason aspirations.
Even though Dallas hasn't managed to beat the Suns in their two meetings this season, this is a game that could certainly be won. The Mavs will be well-rested and should take care of business on their home floor.
With no back-to-backs, the Mavericks will also visit the Denver Nuggets and the Lakers, two teams who shouldn't pose too much of a threat.
Weekly prediction: 3-0
April 13-15
7 of 8
Key Matchup: April 15 vs. Trail Blazers.
The Mavericks will have two games remaining entering the final week, including a crucial regular-season finale against Portland. It's impossible to predict how the standings will shake out in mid-April, but it's not unfathomable that this particular game could still impact the playoff seeding.
The Trail Blazers have a ton of lethal threats, but the Mavs showed they were capable of slowing them down in their 111-101 victory on Feb. 7.
Al-Farouq Aminu actually did an admirable job guarding LaMarcus Aldridge, which took a lot of pressure off Tyson Chandler. The fact that Dallas can throw several different guys at Portland's best player is a great advantage to have.
The Mavs have just one other game in the final week: against the Utah Jazz. It's a tricky game, as it will be the end of Dallas' three-game road trip and the third game in four days.
Weekly prediction: 1-1
Recap
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Final record prediction: 12-9
A 12-9 record might seem a bit low for a team of Dallas' caliber, but it's a realistic estimation. The Mavericks will face one of the toughest schedules in the league—loaded with Western Conference title contenders. Coming out with a winning record against that type of opposition will be a decent accomplishment.
There are still a lot of concerns regarding the legitimacy of Dallas as a title contender. The injuries have been piling up lately, and an internal conflict between Carlisle and Rajon Rondo hasn't helped either. Tim MacMahon of ESPN Dallas summed up the Mavericks' options moving forward:
"Rondo and Carlisle can either make the best of the rest of their brief time together or make a complete mess of the Dallas Mavericks' season. They can swallow their pride and try to squeeze all the potential out of a team that is still smack dab in the middle of the Western Conference playoff pack. Or they can keep squeezing each others' throats and guarantee they'll get out of each others' hair before the calendar flips to May.
"
This prediction would have Dallas at 51-31 at the end of the season, two games better than last year.
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