Checklist for Atlanta Hawks During Season's Homestretch
The 43-11 Atlanta Hawks ended the pre-All-Star break portion of their schedule on a relatively sour note, losing three out of six games after winning 19 consecutive contests.
But it's still too early to sound the alarm bells on their championship aspirations. The Hawks have been consistently excellent throughout the season, and a 3-3 record over a tough six-game slate isn't enough to start doubting them.
In Atlanta's remaining 28 games, starting this coming Friday against the Toronto Raptors, the team will attempt to regain some of the edge it had during its lengthy winning streak.
Let's look at five things the Hawks should focus on as the 2014-15 regular season winds to a close.
Don't Sign an Offensive-Minded Wing
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The Hawks traded rookie power forward Adreian Payne to the Minnesota Timberwolves for a future first-round pick on Feb. 10, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore.
With Payne gone, Atlanta is now left with 14 players on its roster, one fewer than the maximum of 15.
Will the Hawks fill the vacated spot? Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported two options for the team: veteran shooting guards Ray Allen and Gary Neal. Allen seems to be the stronger candidate, as Atlanta has already reached out to the 39-year-old three-point shooter, per Vivlamore.
There are reasons to sign both players: Neal is familiar with Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer from their time with the San Antonio Spurs and can get hot from the three-point arc, while Allen is replete with championship wisdom and the NBA's all-time leader in long-distance makes for good measure.
But if I were calling the shots, I wouldn't sign either.
First, both Neal and Allen are not known as good defenders at this point in their careers due to their poor lateral quickness and strength. Their shooting would further bolster the league's best three-point attack, but at what cost?
Second, Thabo Sefolosha's calf injury has opened up playing time in the Hawks' wing rotation, but when he comes back in a month, the team will be set at the 2 and 3. Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore form a nice platoon at those positions, and adding a fifth wing who expects 20-25 minutes per game could be cumbersome.
And lastly, the team's chemistry is doing just fine, both on and off the court, as Newday's Mark Herrmann eloquently explained.
Although there would be benefits to signing Allen or Neal, there's no need to make a move when the positional need isn't strong and the team is meshing well as is.
Grab Half of Available Rebounds for the Rest of the Season
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Every team has weaknesses, even the Hawks.
But Atlanta's biggest flaw, rebounding, is becoming too hard to ignore. The team grabs 2.7 fewer boards than its opponents per game, good for the 27th-best ratio in the league, per ESPN. Its main competition in the Eastern Conference, (the Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors), all rank among the top 18 rebounding teams.
Looking at recent NBA championship squads, dominating the glass is by no means a requirement to ascend the league mountaintop—but it does help if a squad can at least hold its own in the rebounding department.
In reverse chronological order, these are the rebounding differential rankings of the past five title-winning teams, per ESPN: No. 13, No. 20, No. 6, No. 11 and No. 7.
Those numbers aren't anything special.
If the Hawks can ramp up their effort on the glass to become merely an average rebounding team, their chances of advancing deep in the playoffs will only improve.
Al Horford has done his part on the glass as of late, rebounding from an early-season slump (pun intended) to post 10.3 boards over his last 10 games. Sefolosha (8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes) will help when he returns in a month or so, but for now, Horford's teammates need to give him some assistance in gobbling up missed shots.
Win the Gimmes
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Apologies for pouring salt on an open wound with the above picture of Evan Turner's game-winning floater last Wednesday, but the 88-89 loss to the 20-31 Boston Celtics is exactly the type of effort the Hawks cannot make a habit of the rest of the season.
Boy, was that game rough.
The Hawks played their brand of basketball during the first half, racing out to a 49-34 lead at the intermission thanks to a focused defense and good ball movement. After the break, the inexperienced, talent-starved Celtics just kept chipping into the lead, finally winning on Turner's bucket with 0.2 seconds left in the contest.
Once Atlanta had a sizable lead, it relaxed a little bit too much, especially on the glass. The Celtics outrebounded the Hawks 31-19 in the second half (there's that rebounding problem again!).
The "gimme" games are there for Atlanta, but the team must capitalize on them.
Now, when I refer to "gimmes," I'm referring to both games against subpar teams and contests in which the Hawks build a lead.
Atlanta is usually good in both situations—it is 24-4 against sub-.500 teams and 35-4 when leading at halftime, per NBA.com.
But if the Hawks keep throwing away games like they did against the Celtics, they will be ill-prepared to match the intensity of their opponents when the postseason rolls around.
Get Healthy and Stay Healthy
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The Hawks have been blessed with a generally healthy season so far.
Atlanta's preferred starting five of Jeff Teague, Korver, Carroll, Paul Millsap and Horford has missed a combined 15 games, some of those for rest, and most of the reserves have only been out for a couple of contests at a time.
However, the one glaring injury right now is Thabo Sefolosha's calf strain, which has kept him out since Jan. 30. The 30-year-old small forward is predicted to be back six to eight weeks from Jan. 31 or sometime between mid- and late March, per the Hawks' official Twitter account.
Sefolosha is technically the Hawks' sixth man, with a bench-leading 19.0 minutes per game. His smothering defense and ability to finish at the rim are important to Atlanta's second unit, a big reason why the Hawks are just 5-4 when he's injured and 38-7 when he plays.
Having Sefolosha back at 100 percent by season's end is crucial for a possible Finals run by the Hawks.
As for the rest of the team, it's impossible to ensure complete health through April, but proper minutes management from Budenholzer and staying away from reckless play will be key.
Keep the No. 1 Seed
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This should be a pretty easy task for the Hawks, but they can't take it for granted.
At the moment, Atlanta owns a 6.5-game lead over the Raptors for the East's top seed. If the Raptors continue winning at their current pace for the rest of the season, the Hawks will need to finish 13-15 over their last 28 contests to maintain their seeding. The fifth-seeded Cavaliers have won 14 of their las 16 games, but are still a distant 10.5 games behind the Hawks in the standings.
So yes, it's quite likely Atlanta will end its campaign in the conference penthouse.
If the Hawks keep their position, they will have home-court advantage in any series against an Eastern Conference opponent. That's great news for them because they are 25-3 in Atlanta and haven't lost at Philips Arena since Dec. 26.
No. 1 seeds also have a history of doing a lot better in the playoffs than No. 2 seeds do—out of the 68 championship-winning teams, 49 were the top seed in their conference but only 10 were the second seed.
Atlanta should put forth enough effort to keep the East's No. 1 seed, but it shouldn't be its ultimate goal.
If they are able to keep their position the rest of the season while staying healthy and rested, the Hawks will have as good a chance as anyone to win the NBA title.
Note: All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and updated through Feb. 15 unless otherwise indicated.
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