Ndamukong Suh Is the Ultimate High-Risk, High-Reward Big-Money Free Agent

With the 2014 NFL season officially in the books, we can turn our full attention to free agency and the 2015 draft. But while the upcoming combine in Indianapolis will draw a lot of interest, the draft itself is still nearly three months away. 

Free agency starts in less than five weeks, and this year's potential pool contains several huge names—players like Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Darrelle Revis, Justin Houston, Demaryius Thomas and Jason Pierre-Paul. 

But none of the stars on that list are in line for a payday quite as large as the one Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is in for. 

Suh isn't just an All-Pro in his prime, but he's also this winter's most intriguing impending free agent because he'll likely command a blockbuster salary while also bringing plenty of baggage to whichever team decides to fork over the money for his services. 

One of the best players in the history of free agency

Suh has been an NFL player for five years. In three of those seasons, he was a first-team All-Pro and a second-team All-Pro in another. He was the highest-rated non-quarterback in the 2010 draft, a second overall selection and he's never missed a game due to injury. 

As is often the case with defensive tackles, you can't rely solely on stats to describe how dominant a player like Suh can be. But the 28-year-old has recorded at least eight sacks from the inside in three of his five seasons, and he was graded by Pro Football Focus as the second-best run-stopping defensive tackle in the game in 2014. 

Player	Sacks
1. Ndamukong Suh	36.0
2. Geno Atkins	32.0
3. Justin Smith	30.5
4. Michael Bennett	29.5
5. Marcell Dareus	28.5

Truly elite players rarely hit the open market, which means that if indeed Suh becomes a free agent on March 10, we'll rightly view him as one of the greatest players to do so. Some comparisons to ponder:

Free agent	Year	Age	All-Pros	Pro Bowls
Peyton Manning	2012	36	11	5
Reggie White	1993	31	7	7
Rod Woodson	1997	32	5	7
Shannon Sharpe	2000	31	4	7
Ndamukong Suh	2015	28	4	4
Deion Sanders	1995	28	4	4
Nnamdi Asomugha	2011	30	4	3
Darrelle Revis	2014	28	3	5
Marcus Allen	1993	33	3	5
Deion Sanders again	1994	27	3	3
Steve Hutchinson	2006	28	3	3
Julius Peppers	2010	30	2	5
Albert Haynesworth	2009	28	2	2

If Suh jumps teams as a free agent, he'll become only the second player below the age of 30 with four or more All-Pro nods to do so.

So if he's so good, why is there a good chance he'll become a free agent? It's all about a specific set of financial circumstances. See, Suh was part of the final draft before the new collective bargaining agreement reeled in rookie contracts with a controlled slotting system. As a result, he's already filthy rich. 

In fact, he counted an NFL-high $22.4 million against Detroit's cap in 2014. The franchise tag would require the Lions to give him a 20 percent raise, which means he'd cost them $26.9 plus $9.7 million in dead money from prorated bonuses that Detroit is already on the hook for. 

In other words, if Suh were to play in 2015 with the franchise tag, he'd cost the Lions $36.6 million against the salary cap. Nobody can afford to commit 25 percent of their payroll to one defensive tackle, which is why Suh might escape, especially since he has indicated he'll follow the money (i.e. no hometown discount). 

And according to Over the Cap, 18 teams currently have more money to spend than the Lions. 

Behavioral concerns can't be ignored

Suh only just turned 28. One one hand, he might still have some growing up to do in the next few years and has time to become a respected locker room leader. But on the other hand, he's found a way to create quite a nasty reputation for himself in just half a decade as an NFL player. 

• In 2010, he pulled a wrestling move on Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, resulting in a personal foul and the third fine of his rookie season. 
• In 2011, he slammed Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton's helmet-less head into the turf, which resulted in a $20,000 fine. 
• Later that year, he was ejected and suspended for two games after stomping on the arm of Green Bay Packers center Evan Dietrich-Smith's arm. 
• In 2012, he was fined $30,000 for kicking Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub in the groin.
• In 2013, he was fined $100,000 for taking out the knee of Minnesota Vikings offensive tackle John Sullivan. Later that year, he was fined for making a throat slash gesture at an opposing player. 
• In 2014, he was briefly suspended and then fined $70,000 for stepping on the leg of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. 

The last time a big-name defensive tackle hit free agency facing character concerns—and, coincidentally or not, that player was also trying to distance himself from an infamous stomping incident—Albert Haynesworth became one of the biggest free-agent busts in NFL history when the Washington Redskins gave him a seven-year, $100 million contract with $41 million guaranteed in 2009. 

So it's fair for teams to worry about Suh's temperament. Is he a dirty player? Based on polls like this one, his peers seem to think so. As does the NFL, which has fined Suh $217,000 for various incidents, only some of which are listed above. As Terrence McCoy of The Washington Post points out, he's apologized time and again, but he keeps committing football crimes. Will he ever change? 

That recent episode with Rodgers caused the league to suspend Suh for a playoff game. Said suspension was repealed, but you get the feeling it's only a matter of time before he's forced off the field for extended periods of time for his indiscretions.  

By no means is Suh's case identical to that of Haynesworth, who didn't have the same on-field pedigree and faced questions about his work ethic that Suh has never dealt with. But that should still serve as a cautionary tale for anyone considering giving Suh a Haynesworth-sized deal. 

Especially considering that both were groomed at the NFL level by the same man, Jim Schwartz. 

Can he transform a team?

As good as Suh's been in Detroit, the Lions have won exactly zero playoff games during his NFL career. And it's not as though he isn't well supported by guys like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, DeAndre Levy, Ziggy Ansah and Glover Quin. That's a solid football team, and they haven't experienced much success with Suh's leading the defense. 

Point being, in this day and age, it might be impossible for a defensive lineman to dramatically alter the path an NFL franchise is on. 

Look at J.J. Watt, who was the unanimous choice as Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year after what many have called one of the best defensive seasons in NFL history. And yet Watt's Texans failed to make the playoffs while ranking 16th in total defense. 

Did having 2014 All-Pro defensive linemen help any of the teams on this list in a significant way?

All-Pro	Team	Team record	Playoff wins
DE J.J. Watt	Houston Texans	9-7	0
DE Mario Williams	Buffalo Bills	9-7	0
DE Robert Quinn	St. Louis Rams	6-10	0
DT Ndamukong Suh	Detroit Lions	11-5	0
DT Marcell Dareus	Buffalo Bills	9-7	0
DT Gerald McCoy	Tampa Bay Buccaners	2-14	0

Suh won't make a bad team good, but he might have the ability to make a good team great. Still, I'm not sure quality teams would be smart to make such a huge investment, and most of them are in good shape because they've avoided such temptations while building through the draft. 

Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press makes a stellar point:

"

It won't be New England, Seattle, Green Bay or Baltimore going after Suh if he's on the market. It'll be Oakland or Cleveland. It'll be a desperate Chicago or the New York Jets, with sufficient cap space to offset a cupboard empty of young talent. Looking to generate buzz, to energize a forlorn fan base. 

"

Bottom-feeding teams might feel a big-name like Suh could help to re-energize their fanbases, but they'd be well-served to consider that only winning can usually accomplish that. And sadly, even premier defensive tackles haven't traditionally been game-changers for NFL franchises. 

Those teams should also consider that Suh isn't popular for all the right reasons. And keep in mind that a REPUCOM survey (h/t Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan) from last year found him to be the second-least likable player in the NFL, behind only Michael Vick. 

He can alienate as easily as he can energize. 

He'll be worth more to some than to others

That probably goes without saying when assessing any potential free agent, but it really applies here.

If the Lions lose him, a franchise that hasn't won a championship in more than half a century will look as though it is taking a step back.

Bad teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans will probably be tempted to bite, since all five of those franchises have over $40 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. But that brings us back to the above question regarding whether or not Suh would actually be able to help them become winners.

Those teams face much larger questions at positions that are considered to be more essential to success. 

And then there are teams like the Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Green Bay Packers and even the New York Giants, Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys, all of whom can probably find the money for Suh and would probably become stronger Super Bowl contenders with him on the roster. 

Aside from the Lions, whose general manager insisted on WDIV's Flashpoint (h/t the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett) that he believes they'll get a long-term deal done with Suh in the near future, those appear to be the most logical candidates to find room for the big guy. 

But when Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported last month that as many as 10 teams were "interested in making titanic pitches" for Suh, the potential suitors that were named were of course squads like the Jaguars, Raiders and Browns. 

That's just the nature of this league. There's a salary floor, too, so those teams have money to spend and improvements to make. They know Suh won't turn them into Super Bowl contenders just like that, but they have to use that cash on someone. 

That's why a team will look past those character concerns and see an incredibly talented defender in his prime and pay him like Mario Williams (six years, $96 million with $50 million guaranteed in 2012) or Watt (eight years, $109 million with $52 million guaranteed in 2014). 

Then the pressure will be on Suh to prove that he isn't another Haynesworth or Nnamdi Asomugha in a new city or that he can finally start helping the Lions win games in January back in Detroit. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon