No Need to Panic, New York Knicks Will Lose Enough
The New York Knicks have never had a hard time disappointing their rabid fanbase with losses, but now they're evoking the same emotion for finishing games on the other side of the box score.
The Knicks, who have three separate losing streaks of at least seven games this season, have suddenly ripped off four wins over their last five outings. On the surface, the victories could not be coming at a worse time.
New York, along with several other NBA cities, has begrudgingly learned to embrace the loss column. For downtrodden franchises like this, that typically painful place has instead served as a bastion of hope. No team wants to stay there long, but a temporary visit can have its perks.
The proverbial light at the end of this tunnel features potentially franchise-reversing talents. With draft lottery odds improved, the lower a team sits on the standings, these teams measure their victories in ping-pong balls—not actual wins.
That's why clubs are losing more for Duke's Jahlil Okafor or keeping their wins down for Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns. Superstars are such a vital part of success in this league that the mere chance of drafting and developing one is enough justification for some to sacrifice today in search of a better tomorrow.
For the Knicks, their need for star power is greater than most. With Carmelo Anthony's 31st birthday approaching in May, New York has to build something substantial around him fairly quickly. The free-agent market should help that effort, but the Knicks still have to nail this pick—especially with their 2016 first-round selection already headed to either the Denver Nuggets or Toronto Raptors.
"The Knicks need an infusion of high-level, young talent, and if they keep losing at their current clip, they will almost assuredly accomplish that," CBSSports.com's Ken Berger wrote in mid-December.
The problem is the Knicks aren't hoarding losses anymore. They hosted the 2014 Western Conference finalist Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, weathered a 40-point barrage from Russell Westbrook and still dispatched the visitors with a 100-92 win.
"In this league everybody's a professional, so I feel like if you bring it then you have a chance to beat anybody in the NBA," said forward Lance Thomas, who poured in a season-high 17 points during the win, per Brian Mahoney of The Associated Press. "And with the effort we're putting forward, we're keeping ourselves in games."
Keeping competitive is certainly no reason for alarm. Even tanking teams want to see the strength, skill and spirit of their guys every time out.
But what happens when that competitiveness starts to surface in the win column? Is that a reason to reach for the panic button?
The answer is still no.
A decent week-plus—which it has to be noted also included wins over the Anthony Davis-less New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic—is not going to break New York's lottery odds. In fact, the Knicks' biggest competitors for the top pick also left Wednesday with a win:
The Knicks and Sixers both hold dismal 9-37 records. That puts each of them a half-game up on the 8-37 Minnesota Timberwolves, who now have key contributors Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic back in action and should see the return of assist machine Ricky Rubio shortly, per Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune.
New York isn't falling behind in the tank race. The standings and stat sheets peg the Knicks, Sixers and Timberwolves as the NBA's three worst teams. A solid five-game stretch isn't going to pull New York out of that group.
Outside of Anthony, there isn't a single player on the roster averaging even 13 points a night. Undrafted rookie Langston Galloway sits second at 12.8 points per contest, and he's all of nine games into his career. Amar'e Stoudemire is up next at 12.2, and he's missed 13 of the team's last 18 outings.
According to Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus, Anthony and Galloway are the only Knicks playing above the level of an average NBA player.
It takes talent to win with any consistency, and the Knicks don't have nearly enough of it.
That doesn't mean New York is going to lose out. Given the next four teams on the docket—the Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets—it's very possible this mini-run will continue.
But there's a cap on how far this team can go. And it sits as low as any in the league.
Remember, Anthony hasn't dealt with his troublesome left knee yet. He admitted earlier this month he is "pretty sure at some point, [surgery is] going to be [his] only option," per Fred Kerber of the New York Post, and the team has discussed the possibility of shutting him down.
"From the conversations I've been a part of, I think everybody is smart enough to realize, calendar-wise, timing-wise that there may come a point that's the decision that needs to be made but that we can't force Carmelo to that point just yet," Knicks coach Derek Fisher said, per Mitch Abramson of the New York Daily News.
That bridge will eventually be crossed, likely sooner rather than later.
"As just about everyone around the NBA does as well, I expect Anthony will fight through, play in the All-Star Game, then shut it down for the season," wrote NBC Sports' Kurt Helin.
Once Anthony leaves and takes his team-high 24.3 points per game with him, where are the Knicks going to get that production? More than likely, most of it will simply disappear, putting even more pressure on a defense that already ranks as the league's third-least efficient unit.
That's when the losses will start coming again, every bit as rapidly as before.
But Knicks shouldn't be rushing to get back to that point. Enjoy these wins while they're here, especially for the fact they carry some additional perks.
The most noticeable change for the Knicks recently has been with their approach. Their effort seems to have immensely improved from where it was earlier this season. That has to be a reassuring sign for Fisher's vision for this team and ability to communicate that to his players.
It also speaks to the leadership qualities of New York's $124 million man, Anthony, who hasn't always been held in that department's highest regard.
"I think Carmelo is starting to find out more and more how capable he really is, not only statistically, but emotionally and psychologically how he can be a leader," Fisher said, per Marc Berman of the New York Post. "Guys are following him and he is setting a tone out there."
The Knicks may have uncovered valuable pieces in the 23-year-old Galloway and 26-year-old Thomas. Sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr. has played some of his best basketball of the season (15.2 points on .453/.481/.882 shooting over his last five games), which is big considering he's the only homegrown first-round pick on this roster.
Those are tangible benefits the Knicks can take forward. But arguably the greatest gift is the intangible message New York is sending to potential free-agent targets, as MSG Network's Alan Hahn observed:
The Knicks are loaded with cap space after this season and sure to pursue all the win-now talent they can get. But the NBA's biggest fish might need to see some signs of life in the Big Apple before committing to a future with Anthony, Fisher and team president Phil Jackson.
New York isn't going to have a strong season, but at least it won't be setting any records for futility.
The Knicks needed to show something, because they don't know who might be tracking their progress. One source told Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Kevin Durant will give the Knicks a look when he reaches free agency in 2016. That alone doesn't guarantee anything, but it reaffirms the need to stay ready in case a top-shelf player wants to join the ranks at some point.
So, Knicks Nation should take some satisfaction from this recent showing of respectability. This could plant the seeds for better things to come.
And, no, it won't disrupt New York's plans of securing a top pick. By season's end, the loss column will be saturated enough to give the Knicks a puncher's chance at the draft lottery jackpot.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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