Brook Lopez Trade Would Be Terrible Idea for Oklahoma City Thunder
After spending most of the first half trying to get back to full strength, the Oklahoma City Thunder are really pressing their luck in their alleged pursuit of Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez.
Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Jan. 16 the Thunder and Nets had discussed numerous trade proposals that would bring Lopez to Oklahoma City. The first included the Charlotte Hornets and had Brooklyn taking back hometown hero Lance Stephenson.
After those talks broke down, Brooklyn and OKC reportedly worked on a larger package that would have included Jeremy Lamb and Kendrick Perkins. The Nets backed out of that deal as well.
"Standing pat at this time," a Nets source said, per Wojnarowski. "There was nothing we liked."
The Nets' reluctance to pull the trigger on that swap is understandable. Lamb and Perkins for Lopez is a trade you couldn't even get the computerized AI on NBA 2K15 to agree to because it's a bit one-sided. (Trust me. I've tried.)
The Thunder may have dodged a bullet as well. The aborted trade is an example of how, sometimes, the best deals are the ones you don't make.
On paper, Oklahoma City's desire to add Lopez makes sense. The team needs a low-post scorer and Lopez is one of the best offensive big men in the game when he's healthy.
However, the possible acquisition of the All-Star center has more cons than pros.
Possible Effect on Others
Steven Adams hasn't been a worldbeater by any stretch of the imagination, but he's shown flashes of being a solid starting center for the Thunder. He's averaging 7.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game.
Those numbers may pale in comparison to Lopez's (15.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks), but they aren't terrible enough to warrant the need for an upgrade. A potential deal for Lopez would stunt Adams' growth in numerous ways.
First, it might be tough for Adams to build chemistry with the starting rotation if he's no longer a part of the first five. Adams' minutes would also take a hit, giving him less time to develop on the court. There's also the potential blow to a 21-year-old's confidence by replacing him midway into his first season as a starter.
Next, since Perkins' $9.1 million salary is needed to make a Lopez deal work financially, the team would be sacrificing Adams' mentor for the chance to roll the dice on an oft-injured replacement. Without Perkins, who would take the big Kiwi under their wing? Lopez? Serge Ibaka? Nick Collison? The coaching staff?
Starter or not, Adams is still the future, and that future becomes compromised without the proper tutelage.
Lopez's possible arrival also raises the issue of touches. By adding the Stanford product, the team would be bringing in another mouth to feed. Ibaka is already making $12.25 million, per HoopsHype.com, to be the third option. With Lopez in the fold, someone will be making eight figures to be the fourth man. That's an expensive headache for an offense already dominated by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
What about when Dion Waiters is on the floor with the starters? Waiters, acquired earlier this month in a three-team deal, is already starting to feel welcomed in his new surroundings.
"It seems like I've been here forever. It seems like I've been playing with them forever, too. When I came here, we clicked right away," Waiters said, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. "Listen, they give me the ball. Like, I touch the ball. Like, I actually, you know, touch the ball."
With the addition of Lopez, Waiters would likely touch the ball less. For a guy who is most effective with the rock in his hands, that could be an issue.
Lastly, super teams are at their best with a trio leading the pack, as in the case of the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh Miami Heat era. When a club branches to four stars, it rarely works out. The most recent example would be the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers with Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol. For all the high expectations, in-fighting, injuries and a lack of chemistry were key factors in their implosion.
Oklahoma City could be headed toward the same fate. It is already trying to dig itself out of an early hole and into a playoff spot. Adding another star to the mix would only complicate that goal.
Injury Risk
Ninety-six games.
That's the total number of games Brook Lopez had played since the 2010-11 season coming into this year. He's made 32 appearances this season, missing 10 games with myriad injuries. Oddly enough, 32 is the average number of games he played during that three-year stretch.
Jon Hamm of The Oklahoman mentioned the potential injury risk that comes with adding the Nets big man:
"Lopez also has a worrisome injury history. He’s been plagued by broken bones in his feet that have required extensive surgery. He’s also dealt with a number of nagging ankle injuries over the years and missed time earlier this season with a lower back strain. It’s enough to give many teams pause, but especially the snake-bitten Thunder."
Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote another broken foot could have "a catastrophic impact on Lopez's career." Given everything this franchise and its fans have already endured this season, is that really a chance you want to take?
Durant missed 23 games with foot and ankle issues. Westbrook was out for 14 with a broken hand. Forward Mitch McGary has made just one appearance during his rookie campaign. Anthony Morrow, Reggie Jackson and Perry Jones have all missed time as well.
Only two Thunder players have played the entire season so far: Ibaka and Adams. Now, OKC wants to replace the latter in the starting lineup with a man whose foot is a ticking time bomb.
If Lopez stays healthy, this becomes a moot point. However, there's nothing in his recent history to suggest that is possible.
He hasn't averaged more than seven rebounds since his second season in the league, and his modest 1.7 rejections are his lowest output since 2010-11. By comparison, Adams is already better on the glass, and he has just five less total blocks than Lopez (53 to 48). He's also nearly six years younger (Lopez will be 27 years old in April).
The advanced stats, shown in the chart below, seem to work in Adams' favor as well.
| Name | Total Rebound Percentage | Block Percentage | Offensive Box Plus/Minus | Defensive Box Plus/Minus | Value Above Replacement Player | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating |
| Steven Adams (OKC) | 16.2 | 3.8 | -2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 105 | 101 |
| Brook Lopez (BKN) | 13.2 | 5.1 | -2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 104 | 102 |
For what they might be paying for Lopez's services the next two years (just under $32.5 million combined), that's not much of an upgrade.
Expensive Price Tag
The biggest surprise in the Thunder's pursuit of Lopez is the desire to add his large contract. This is a team that dealt away James Harden a few years ago because it was unwilling to go into the luxury tax to keep him and Ibaka.
Now, the Thunder are all about opening up the checkbook to add a fragile big man that could cost them a pretty penny, per Lowe.
"Lopez has a $16.7 million player option for next season, and most league executives expect him to exercise it, barring a major surge over the second half of the season.
Adding that to the Thunder’s books would take their payroll into the $85 million range for next season, about $4 million above the projected tax. That doesn't include any salary for Jackson, a restricted free agent this summer. Any deal for a Lopezian salary in 2015-16 would likely clinch Jackson’s departure from Oklahoma City — if that ship hasn't already sailed.
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In regards to Jackson leaving, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. He came into his contract year wanting to both be a starter and get paid. Instead, he was left on the second unit, only to watch Waiters come along as his potential replacement.
The concern isn't losing Jackson. It's whether Lopez is worth losing the team's prized sixth man and going into the luxury tax. Per HoopsHype, Lopez is due $15.7 million this year, with a player option worth $16.7 million next year. That's a little more than what the team will pay Westbrook over that span.
So what does $32.5 million buy exactly? According to Devin Kharpertian of TheBrooklynGame.com, not as much inside scoring as you think.
"The seven-foot Lopez, who led the NBA in points off "cuts" to the basket (which includes things like dump-offs by guards for dunks and layups) just two seasons ago, has taken a higher percentage of his set shots from 16 feet & out (27.2%) than dunks & layups from within 3 feet (26.9%).
It’s a staggering change: once a post-dominant scorer and Deron Williams’s finisher at the rim, Lopez is now a set shooter who fires 17-footers."
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In other words, the Thunder's desired scoring threat in the post isn't really about that life anymore. If that's the case, why not save some money and go shopping in the bargain bin for an interior threat? The team could likely get someone like the Utah Jazz's Trevor Booker or the Boston Celtics' Brandon Bass for a portion of what they'd end up paying Lopez.
For a small-market team like the Thunder, saving a few dollars would make a ton of sense.
At this point in his career, Brook Lopez offers more on paper than he would on the court for the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's an expensive big man with an extensive injury history. The possibility of another serious injury is a gamble this team can't afford to take.
Furthermore, Lopez's added offense isn't worth sacrificing what Steven Adams and Kendrick Perkins bring defensively as well as on the glass. The Thunder already have two of the best scorers in the game in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. They've also gotten by just fine for years with the offensively limited Perkins in the middle.
To stay competitive in a deep Western Conference, Oklahoma City may need to make a move or two.
A potential deal for Lopez isn't one of them.
Note: All stats current as of Jan. 21 and are courtesy of NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.
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