Monta Ellis Deserves to Be an NBA All-Star but Probably Won't Be
Monta Ellis has hardly ever had a stronger All-Star case than the one he is putting forward this season. Even as he has been the best player on the Dallas Mavericks, his chances to represent the Western Conference are looking slim.
A top-five team in a conference normally gets at least one All-Star nomination. The Mavs are just half a game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for a top-three seed, but it's likely that Ellis, and every other Maverick for that matter, will miss out on the festivities this year.
Monta wasn't even among the 10 most popular backcourt players in the NBA All-Star fan voting, and he will have to rely on a gruesome reserve selection process.
It's hard to argue against Ellis' credentials to make the team this season. He is the leading scorer on the Mavs, who go into Wednesday's play leading the league in offensive efficiency. He has been a perfect complement next to Dirk Nowitzki, forming a lethal pick-and-roll duo that terrorizes opposing defenses. Ellis has come up huge in clutch situations and hasn't missed a single game despite being banged up.
To get the All-Star nod, a player has to not only put up big numbers and performances but also do so in a winning environment. Ellis, 29, has had explosive scoring seasons before, but he hadn't played for an elite team until joining Dallas. This makes it less surprising that Ellis' 19.4 points per game career average is the second-highest ever among players who have never made an All-Star game.
Even as the two prerequisites of performing well and winning are seemingly being met in Ellis' case, the competition will likely prove to be too tough this year.
The Competition
Kobe Bryant and Stephen Curry won the popularity contest, which has the fans voting for All-Star starters. That means a lot of deserving candidates will be competing for between two and four reserve backcourt spots.
NBA coaches will select three frontcourt and two backcourt reserves, as well as two wild cards who can be of any position.
There's no doubt one reserve guard will be the Houston Rockets' James Harden, who leads the league in scoring at 27.1 points per game and is a primary MVP candidate. Even in Dwight Howard's absence, Harden has managed to keep his team afloat in the West.
Moving further down the list, the Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson appears as a candidate to make his All-Star debut. Not only is he playing for the best team in basketball halfway through the season, but Thompson is also having a breakout year in every regard. He is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, field-goal percentage and three-point percentage, while playing three minutes per game less than he did last season.
The Los Angeles Clippers have looked shaky, but Chris Paul is still a perennial All-Star who is unlikely to get snubbed by the coaches. He might have shown signs of slowing down, as he isn't getting to the free-throw line as much as he used to, but Paul remains one of the best floor generals in the league.
The Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook is another curious case. On one hand, he has only played 26 games this season due to injuries. On the flip side, he has been one of the most entertaining players in the league when he has played. He is averaging a career-high 25.1 points per game and is arguably a top-five player in the league when healthy.
Damian Lillard made the All-Star team last year, and his numbers are even better this season. He has been as clutch as ever, and it wouldn't be surprising for the Portland Trail Blazers to send both Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge to the exhibition game.
The Memphis Grizzlies' Mike Conley is another legitimate candidate. He has been underrated for a long time and is putting together undoubtedly the best season of his career. Conley is scoring a career-high 18.1 points per game and is doing so at unprecedented efficiency for him.
Ellis' Case
As mentioned, Ellis is truly the engine of the Mavs offense. He is one of the fastest guys in the league, is practically unstoppable in the open court and possesses exceptional pick-and-roll versatility.
When combining with Nowitzki or Tyson Chandler on handoff plays, Ellis is impossible to deal with. He loves curling around the big man, getting a few steps ahead of his defender and then exploding to the basket. His passing ability has always been somewhat underrated, as HoopsHype.com's David Nurse sums up very well:
"Ellis has also been able to use the ball screen to become a high level playmaker, thanks to his ability to score off the ball screen and his teammate around him. 56 percent of Ellis’s passes off the ball screen are going to spot-up shooters, with an adjusted field goal percentage of 51.2 percent, putting him in the top 9 percent of the NBA creating off the ball screen, ranking him ahead of the likes of Russell Westbrook, Ty Lawson and Kyle Lowry.
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Ellis is a lot more willing to play off the ball than he was earlier in his career. He moves, screens and makes winning plays regardless of whether he is the one taking the shot or not. Ellis doesn't quite have the shooting touch of someone like the Warriors' Thompson, but he makes the most of the tools at his disposal.
Monta is part of one of the best starting lineups in basketball. That naturally makes it easier on him, as he isn't required to make plays every single offensive possession. While it works within the context of the team, it also hurts his statistical All-Star case.
Ellis' competition to make the All-Star Game consist mostly of ball-dominant point guards on very good teams, who are asked to do a lot more. Guys like Paul and Lillard don't have anyone to share their primary ball-handling duties with and get to pad their statistics as a result.
ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon also suggested that Ellis and Conley will likely be on the outside looking in when the festivities take place in New York this February:
"The list is long enough to keep Ellis from making his first All-Star appearance despite performing at a level that could certainly be considered All-Star caliber. Curry, Thompson, Harden, Lillard and Paul all deserve to be locks. Westbrook has an awfully strong case, too. Kobe will win the popularity contest for a starting spot, leaving Ellis and Conley as the best guards not to get an All-Star call this season.
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MacMahon is one of many media members to agree with the notion that Ellis' competition will simply be too tough to overcome this season.
Every year, some NBA players are snubbed from the All-Star Game. This season will be no different. As fantastic as Ellis' game-winning heroics have been, he will likely be one of those snubs. From the competitive image Monta projects, that will only fuel him moving forward.
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