Likeliest 1st-Time NBA All-Stars at Every Position
New NBA All-Stars are born on a yearly basis. This season's rendition of your favorite no-defense display, while made up mostly of returning talent, should be no different.
First-time appearances are basically a given, after all. The tricky part is finding them.
Sometimes the first-timers are obvious. But the NBA's stable of star power creates big-name logjams. Certain positions—like shooting guard and center—are more open than others and therefore conducive to All-Star novices. Other spots—like power forward—are chock-full of recurring All-Stars and more closed off, making it difficult for younger or less established players to break in.
Identifying likeliest first-time All-Stars at every position, then, is a game of chance. These will be predictions based on statistical performances, subjective value and positional climate.
None of these candidates will be a starter. The voters have spoken and continue to speak. And to date, they've said the starters for both the Eastern and Western Conferences will be familiar faces.
What we're suddenly doing is cherry-picking a fresh crop of reserves. Selected players may or may not make an All-Star cameo in New York on Feb. 15. It doesn't matter in the long run.
Irrespective of what happens, each of these players has earned something comparably valuable to an actual All-Star selection: our consideration.
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
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Kyle Lowry is going to be repping the Toronto Raptors in New York next month. Either that or the NBA's head coaches will be facing the wrath of one Dwane Casey.
"I hope our fans get out and vote and don't put it in the hands of the coaches," Casey said of All-Star voting, per The Sports Network's Josh Lewenberg. "And if the coaches don't do it, I'm probably going to get in a physical fight with those guys."
Aside from thrusting himself into Quote of the Year discussions, Casey is slinging indisputable truth with his (hopefully) playful presage.
Contract-year Kyle Lowry was no aberration. He was more like a preview. This year's Lowry ranks 10th in player efficiency rating (22.7) and ninth in win shares (5.7), and he's one of just four players averaging at least 19 points, four rebounds, seven assists and 1.5 steals per game. The other three are LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry—all surefire All-Stars.
Although the Raptors, having lost seven of their last nine games, are slumping like a bag of overcooked ramen noodles, Lowry's stock isn't crumbling underneath their fast-falling title chances. To the contrary, he's the reason they survived DeMar DeRozan's absence and are in the championship discussion at all, even if they're now on the outskirts.
Lowry was snubbed from the All-Star festivities last season while playing like one of the Eastern Conference's best point guards (the other being John Wall). The absence of a nod this year would be criminal and punishable by a verbose, profanity-packed, hours-long lecture from Casey.
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
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Distinguishing one's self as an elite Western Conference guard is ridiculously difficult.
Shooting guard is a relatively barren position, but the All-Star ballots don't differentiate between the 1 and 2 slots. Beyond James Harden (MVP candidate) and Kobe Bryant (booming brand), you're competing with Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard and so many more.
Klay Thompson is now one of the few who have cracked this conversation.
While the Golden State Warriors' four-year, $70(ish) million commitment doesn't officially kick in until next season, Thompson is already playing like a superstud. He ranks eighth in PER (21.0) among all guards and third among shooting guards, trailing only Harden and Dwyane Wade. He's also one of 12 players averaging at least 20 points, three rebounds, three assists and one steal per game.
Of those 12, Thompson ranks second in effective field-goal percentage (56.1)—which accounts for two-pointers and three-pointers—behind only Curry (59.1). In fact, he is on pace to have the fifth-highest effective field-goal percentage of any guard to average at least 16 points per game through his first four seasons.
More impressive still, Thompson's offensive game has expanded to include more drives and post-ups. His per-36 minute free-throw rate has nearly doubled from last season, and a more peachy 35.1 percent of his baskets are coming unassisted, up from 24.9 percent in 2013-14.
At a shallow position crawling with scoring specialists, Thompson remains one of the few two-way talents. He can play and defend both shooting guards and small forwards, and opponents are shooting 6.4 percent below their season average when being defended by him.
Starting the All-Star Game is already out of the question. But if the coaches do their job, Thompson should be suiting up for the Feb. 15 exhibition in what would be the first of many All-Star romps.
Small Forward: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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Exactly zero qualms should be had with this pick.
Jimmy Butler spends most of his time at shooting guard, but he also represents 21 percent of the total minutes the Chicago Bulls have handed out at small forward, according to 82games.com. And given the lack of first-time candidates at small forward in general, we wind up here, banking on more flexibility being allotted when picking reserves.
It's not like Butler doesn't belong in New York, either. He's the Kyle Lowry of contract-year players this season.
"He entered the league as a defensive-minded wing who showed flashes of potential on the offensive end, wrote Find The Best's Ben Leibowitz (via SI.com). "Now he’s experiencing a full-fledged, All-Star-caliber breakout."
Sporting per-game averages of 20.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals, he's in line for a max deal this summer—one the frequently frugal Bulls plan on giving him, per David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune.
Can't say I blame them. After all, no one else in the league is reaching Butler's per-game benchmarks. Only two other players have actually swam in that pool since 2009: Paul George and James (five times).
Not even a new-year downswing has been enough to bungle Butler's breakout campaign. He's only averaging 16.7 points on 40.7 percent shooting since Jan. 1, but he's easily been Chicago's best player (sorry, Pau Gasol). Not only has he eclipsed 20 points more times this season (23) than his previous three combined (nine), but he ranks fifth in win shares (6.8).
Such placement is usually reserved for MVP hopefuls. Consider that Anthony Davis, Curry, Paul and Harden all round out the top five. They're all MVP candidates.
Then again, having at times carried the Bulls while Derrick Rose works off rust and Joakim Noah battles injuries, so is Butler. Earning his first All-Star selection—be it as a shooting guard or small forward—is just a manifestation of that sublime value.
Power Forward: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Picking the most likely first-timers at the power forward position feels a lot like attending New York Knicks games these days: pointless and liable to make you both question and execrate the task at hand.
The West's established power forwards, barring injury, aren't going anywhere. Blake Griffin and Davis will be voted in as starters, and then you have Dirk Nowitzki, LaMarcus Aldridge and Tim Duncan all vying for reserve honors. Good luck beating any of those three out.
If there's one player who could sneak into the fold, it's Serge Ibaka. The Eastern Conference's frontcourt situation isn't as uncompromising, but it lacks first-time star power at the 4. Besides, once Curry received his first All-Star go-ahead last season, Ibaka became the most prominent active player not to have one.
Which, again, isn't for lack of trying. Creeping into the power forward Brat Pack is just a futile venture. Statistically speaking, Ibaka has been good enough to receive the green light for a while—especially this season.
His 14.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 2.3 blocks per game are nothing new. They're similar to his performance last season and lower in most cases. But the 6'10" product who's known for swatting shots, rattling rims and draining the occasional mid-range jumper now buries three-pointers consistently and in volume.
Ibaka has made more treys this season (23) than his first four combined (22), and he's banging in 41.7 percent of his long balls overall. And if his current numbers hold, he would become just the second player in NBA history to shoot 37 percent or better from deep while also averaging at least 10 points, seven rebounds, two blocks and one three-point attempt.
Most of this offensive evolution is lost in the Oklahoma City Thunder's battle for eighth place and a crowded batch of talented power forwards out West. But as Hardwood Paroxysm's David Vertsberger writes, "Serge Ibaka's name isn't really mentioned often as a 'Damn it, he's going to get snubbed because he's in the West' guy, but he really is."
Like many others, Ibaka's All-Star candidacy will probably be for naught. Yet should the time for reform come this season, his name will be there among the suggested and deserving newcomers.
Center: DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
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Viral infections, injuries, coaching changes and systematic tweaks have not derailed DeMarcus Cousins' sensational 2014-15 campaign.
Bigger megastars may have even crumbled within the perpetually restless environment that is the Sacramento Kings' locker room. Cousins has taken to destroying opposing defenses, obliterating box scores and shifting public perception instead.
Only eight players in NBA history have maintained averages of at least 24 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and 1.5 blocks for an entire season: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Garnett, Bob Lanier, Bob McAdoo, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Tim Duncan—five Hall of Famers and three future Hall of Famers.
Cousins is on pace to join their single-season company.
Ranking sixth in PER (26.1) is the cherry atop his statistical sundae. His impact on the Kings is the second dessert you devour on cheat night:
| With Cousins | 107.2 | 5 | 100.1 | 7 | 7.1 | 3 |
| Without Cousins | 100.1 | 23 | 110.9 | 30 | -10.8 | 29 |
"To be totally honest, it is what it is," Cousins said of making an All-Star appearance, per The Sacramento Bee's Jason Jones. "If I make it, I make it. If I don’t, I don’t."
This is no time for humility. If Cousins makes it, the would-be first-timer deserves it. And if he doesn't, if the coaches overlook all he's done, it will be one of the biggest All-Star snubs ever.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played Jan. 18, 2015.
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