Time to Pump Brakes on Toronto Raptors' NBA Title Aspirations
Once seemingly infallible in the midst of a torrid 23-8 start, the Toronto Raptors have plummeted out of the stratosphere and back into a middling layer of the NBA atmosphere.
Following a 110-89 drubbing at the hands of the Eastern Conference-leading Atlanta Hawks Friday night, Toronto is 2-5 since the start of the New Year. According to Raptors media relations, Friday's outing was the club's least productive offensive showing in nearly 10 months:
Subsequently, the Raptors have quickly receded from their perch as the conference's No. 2 seed and are in danger of slipping behind the Chicago Bulls and nestling into the No. 4 seed.
This regression shouldn't be terribly surprising, though.
Toronto's lackluster defense has been overshadowed by an overachieving offense all season long. Generating 109.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com, Toronto continues to rank among the league's top seven in terms of overall net rating (plus-4.9) despite posting a defensive rating of 105.0.
And while that deceptive margin had been able to mask flaws during the season's first two months, the team's rough 2015 opening has amplified concerns on both ends of the floor.
Take this note from TSN Sports' Josh Lewenberg, for instance:
Casting a wider net, here's what the team's efficiency has looked like on both ends of the floor before and after Jan. 1, per NBA.com:
| Before Jan. 1 | 111.7 | 103.8 | +7.9 |
| Since Jan. 1 | 102.1 | 110.2 | -8.1 |
To sum up just how bad things have been for Toronto since Jan. 1, consider these statistical tidbits: If the Raptors' defensive rating of 110.2 spanned the entire season, it would rank dead-last behind the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Furthermore, their offensive rating of 102.1 would grade out below the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.
Not only are those deficiencies concerning in a vacuum, but they have become terribly apparent when Toronto's been matched up against top-tier competition. Through Saturday night, Toronto is 8-10 against teams with records better than .500—one game worse than the Cleveland Cavaliers' record versus such foes.
"It’s no one person," head coach Dwane Casey said, according to the National Post's Eric Koreen. "We’re still in that rut and the only way we’re going to get out of it is to work our way out of it. There’s no pointing fingers. There’s no one person in that room [who is at] fault. If it's anybody's fault, put it on me. But, it's all of us in it together and [Atlanta] is a well-oiled machine."
Although the blame can rightfully be placed on the collective, as Casey suggested, the Raptors' shortcomings have pushed them to the back of the East's esteemed four-team pack.
While Atlanta's coasting atop the conference five games up on the Washington Wizards and six games ahead of the Raptors, the league's northernmost franchise is starting to resemble a title pretender, despite Casey's optimistic musings.
"In the Eastern Conference, it’s still open," Casey said, according to Koreen. "Four games or five games separate a lot of the teams. It’s wide open for the taking. That’s what I told our guys: Let’s not just be satisfied with winning the division. Let’s fight, scratch and claw and get better."
But as their 39-game resume suggests, the Raptors don't have the balanced approach necessary to remain competitive with the Hawks, Wizards or Bulls.
Just as they helped exemplify Toronto's struggles of late, net ratings also illuminate the disparity in productivity between the conference's jostling powers:
| Atlanta Hawks | 5 (106.9) | 5 (99.7) |
| Chicago Bulls | 7 (105.8) | 11 (102.1) |
| Toronto Raptors | 3 (109.9) | 22 (105.0) |
| Washington Wizards | 13 (103.9) | 7 (100.7) |
If there's a silver lining for Toronto, it's that shooting guard extraordinaire DeMar DeRozan has returned to the starting lineup after missing 21 games while rehabilitating a torn left adductor longus tendon.
In the two games he's appeared in since rejoining the club, DeRozan is averaging 22.5 points on 62.5 percent shooting. That said, the Raptors are actually 1.2 points worse per 100 offensive possessions with DeRozan on the floor this season, according to NBA.com.
With an offensive relapse hitting hard, players haven't been afraid to discuss a pervasive lack of continuity.
According to the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat, "James Johnson noted that teams seem to have the book on the Raptors right now. They have been scouted well. Couple that with not 'cherishing the ball' like they were earlier in the season, and this has become quite problematic."
Johnson's observation is validated in the form of some other concerning figures.
In addition to the turnover numbers Lewenberg cited, Toronto hasn't shared the ball at a remotely skillful rate. According to NBA.com, the Raptors' assist percentage (the number of total field goals a team assists on) of 54.2 ranks 27th, ahead of only the Sacramento Kings, Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns.
The primary worry is that Toronto's failings aren't confined to one area. Defensive flaws deserve to be magnified given the season-long scope of those defects, but offensive slippage is accelerating the Raptors' departure from contention.
Fortunately, a forgiving upcoming stretch that includes matchups against the New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings and Brooklyn Nets has the potential to provide some semblance of an equilibrium north of the border.
But if the Raptors fail to capitalize against those sub-.500 opponents, it will officially be time to put their title hopes on life support.
All statistics current as of Jan. 17 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
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