5 Things the Orlando Magic Must Achieve During 2015
At 13-24 and three games out of the Eastern Conference's eighth and final playoff spot, the Orlando Magic need a change of fortune in 2015.
They opened the year at home with losses to the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets—not the kind of fortune they had hoped for.
With the All-Star break over a month away, there are still ample opportunities for strides to be taken.
They don't have to be leaps and bounds, necessarily, but some good health, consistency and improvement in certain areas could go a long way in transforming this team into the playoff contender they desire to be.
Those strides, however small or large, are necessary for Orlando's development and there's no better time than now to get started.
Here's what Orlando must achieve in 2015, both in order to finish this season strong and lay the foundation for what's to come.
5. Consistency from Elfrid Payton
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When Elfrid Payton was acquired by the Magic in a draft-day trade with the Philadelphia 76ers, a deal in which Orlando sent a future first-round pick Philly's way, the organization was handing the reins over to its point guard of the future.
Then when Orlando waived veteran point guard and franchise stalwart Jameer Nelson back in June, the future suddenly became now.
In his first 37 games, Payton has been inconsistent, to say the least, floating in and out of the starting lineup. His play isn't a reason to panic at all. Not yet.
Take last season's Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, for instance. The No. 11 pick from the 2013 draft was anointed as Philly's starting point guard from day one, and his poor shooting and lapses in judgment are just a few of the criticisms he shares with Payton.
Despite putting up the necessary counting stats (16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game) to secure the award, Carter-Williams was wildly inefficient. He shot 40 percent from the field (26.4 from three-point range), and despite amassing impressive steal totals, his Defensive Rating of 108 is actually worse than Payton's 106, per Basketball-Reference.
While Payton averages five fewer field-goal attempts per game than Carter-Williams' rookie season, their per-36 averages in other categories are eerily similar. Shooting percentage certainly isn't the end-all for point guards, but at some point you're going to have to keep the defense honest. You either have to knock down the open jumpers or be confident in your convictions and attack the basket, where Payton is currently shooting 41 percent on attempts within three feet.
For most, shooting percentages go up with repetition and experience. Russell Westbrook shot 39.8 percent his 2008-09 rookie season. But by 2011-12, with the Oklahoma City Thunder en route to an NBA Finals appearance, he bumped that up to 45.7 percent. Rajon Rondo made a similar leap from his 2006-07 season (41.8) to the 2009-10 campaign when he shot over 50 percent on the year.
Roster cohesion and more consistent play from teammates will also help in that regard, but an improved offensive repertoire is just one aspect of his game he'll likely be working on this offseason.
Payton's still a work in progress, but there is plenty of reason for optimism as the season, and his career, continues.
4. Roster Cohesion
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This is a two-step process. First, it's imperative for a team in transition, such as this Orlando squad, to grow and improve as a unit.
That means re-signing Tobias Harris, who is in the midst of a career year and has developed into one of the best young forwards in basketball.
The rest of Orlando's cornerstone pieces—Nikola Vucevic, Payton, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon—are under team control for at least three more seasons. Harris, who enters restricted free agency this summer, should be the first item on general manager Rob Hennigan's agenda.
At a team-high 18.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, Harris has done his part to warrant a nice raise. Not to mention his penchant for knocking down game-winners.
Once it's been established whom the main players will be going forward, it's time to fill in the roster with better supporting pieces. This is the second part of building a cohesive roster.
Orlando did an excellent job of acquiring three players in the offseason—Channing Frye, Ben Gordon and Evan Fournier—who helped fill a void: three-point shooting. Orlando ranked 21st in three-point percentage last season. This year, they rank sixth from beyond the arc.
Regardless of the improvement, Orlando is still the third-worst offensive team in the league, averaging 93.9 points a night.
So while the players being brought in can certainly contribute, how well do they fit with the overall makeup of this roster? Are these role players optimizing the team's strengths or correcting its weaknesses?
The early returns say no, despite the uptick in certain areas. It's something for head coach Jacque Vaughn and the front office to address going forward.
3. Get Aaron Gordon Back
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The Magic could certainly use Gordon, their energetic lottery pick, who underwent surgery for a broken foot on November 21. Gordon is expected to be sidelined through the All-Star break, and it's unclear when he will actually be able to return.
Many fans expected him to be full of highlight-reel dunks and blocks his rookie year; his broken foot has put a dampener on that potential show. But where he is really missed is on defense, particularly his athleticism and versatility.
While it certainly makes sense to rest him and not risk further injury given how valuable he is to the team's future, it's important for him to gain some momentum in 2015.
Seeing all that athleticism on display at the end of this season in a Magic playoff push could really benefit the team both immediately and down the line. It can give them some extra wins, sure, but it can also provide a glimpse of how Gordon fits with Orlando's other pieces.
A realistic comparison regarding his place on this team would be a player like 15-year vet Shawn Marion. Despite Marion's increased minutes and opportunities during his rookie season of 1999-2000, they have similar per-36 numbers and both exhibit tremendous versatility.
Gordon has all the tools to become the defensive stopper and glue guy Marion has always been at his various NBA stops.
2. Become a Better Home Team
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Orlando is just 4-12 at home this season.
It's mind-boggling that a team in this stage of their evolution—a young roster loaded with inexperienced players and new faces—has five more wins on the road than at home. Especially considering the fact that Orlando was just 4-37 away from the Amway Center last season.
The young guys should feed off the home crowd's energy.
That hasn't been the case this season, and with upcoming matchups against some of the West's best—Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder—in January, there doesn't appear to be much of a home-court advantage on the horizon.
Just in their division alone, the first-place Atlanta Hawks dominate at home (14-3 record), as do the second-place Washington Wizards (14-4).
When the time comes for this team to challenge for division crowns and playoff spots, their home marks will need to resemble those of the Hawks and Wizards. While they're a long way from being dominant at home, grabbing a few wins against top-notch opponents could be just what they need to start a playoff push.
1. Nikola Vucevic Makes the All-Star Team
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It would be nothing but positive if Vucevic represented the Magic in the 2015 All-Star Game.
He's far from a lock, and if he didn't make the team, there wouldn't be a tremendous outcry over his snub nationally, but he's certainly deserving of the honor.
In the most recent voting results that were released to the public on January 1, Vucevic ranked 11th among all frontcourt players in the East.
Joakim Noah, Kevin Love, Marcin Gortat and Chris Bosh, for example, all have at least double the votes Vucevic has among those players not being voted in as starters.
Out of that group, Vucevic ranks second behind Bosh in scoring and player-efficiency rating. He ranks third in assists and blocks. He bests all of them in shooting percentage and rebounds.
Noah and Gortat play for surefire playoff teams that get more exposure nationally. Love has been an All-Star in Minnesota and is on national TV every week with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Bosh has been to four straight NBA Finals with Miami. All four will almost certainly get more votes than Vucevic, but he definitely belongs in the conversation and deserves a nod regardless of Orlando's record.
All-Star appearances aren't everything. So many older players get voted in based on reputation. Players in smaller markets get passed over. It happens every year. Vucevic missing out on the All-Star Game likely won't have an adverse effect on Orlando's playoff pursuits.
Getting some sort of recognition, a sign that there is growth and development happening in Orlando, could be beneficial though. It could be a message to the rest of the organization that they are headed in the right direction. It's the jolt of positive energy this team could really use right about now.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference and current as of January 6. Follow Stephen on Twitter: @S_Albertini
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