How Much Can Cleveland Cavaliers Use NBA Trade Market to Improve?
The Cleveland Cavaliers haven't exactly enjoyed 2015 thus far.
After losing now-30-year-old LeBron James to a sprained left knee and lower back for two weeks, the team has continued to struggle, moving perilously close to a .500 record and sinking further and further away from the Eastern Conference-leading Atlanta Hawks. The trio of Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and James still hasn't experienced much success when everyone is healthy, and losing Anderson Varejao to a ruptured Achilles remains problematic.
Following a blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night, the Cavs fell to 19-15, a few games back of the top four squads in the weaker half of the Association. According to Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system, which looks at strength of schedule and margin of victory, Cleveland has barely been one of the league's 15 best teams and is trending in the wrong direction.
Fortunately for the Cavaliers, there's still plenty of time for a turnaround, and trade season is now in full swing. But can this new-look squad make any moves of significance that will help it become less reliant on internal improvement in its quest for a midseason turnaround?
Biggest Needs
The Cavaliers really don't need much help on the offensive end of the court.
On the season as a whole, this squad has emerged as a solid set of offensive rebounders that draws lots of contact and shoots the ball efficiently without recording too many turnovers. That's a deadly combination, and it's a major part of the reason that Cleveland still ranks No. 6 in offensive rating, though it's obviously far from the "best offense ever" speculation that ran rampant before the season began.
However, during the four games in which James has been inactive, the Cavs have posted a combined offensive rating of just 98.5, one that would beat out only the Philadelphia 76ers if it were maintained throughout the season. Obviously, that's not a good thing, but it's not exactly a fixable issue since the team was built to be dependent on the four-time MVP's brilliance.
Despite the recent woes that will likely continue—though not necessarily to this extent, which has seen Cleveland lose five of its last seven games—until James returns from his injury issues, defense is still the primary problem for this squad. Allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the Cavaliers rank No. 22 in defensive rating, a problem that exists largely because they don't contest shots on the perimeter and hemorrhage points on the interior of the half-court set.
The team that entered the season as a hopeful title contender is allowing an embarrassing 56.1 percent of the shots taken at the rim against it to fall through the net, per NBA.com's SportVU data. Only the Minnesota Timberwolves have been worse, and that's by just a tenth of a percentage point.
Nonetheless, David Blatt seems happy with the work Tristan Thompson has done since stepping into the role of primary center, as he recently told Bleacher Report's Greg Swartz:
"Tristan has been doing a great job. Obviously the loss of Andy was a big thing for us because the two of them were kind of the two-headed monster for us at the position. Lou and Brendan have seen some minutes, but we're going to play the way we think we need to to win games. Tristan is a workhorse. On the other hand, obviously we don't want to work him into the ground, so we've got to keep our eyes on him, yes.
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But the numbers, which do indicate Thompson has been the best option, haven't been all that kind:
There are no players on this roster capable of making a huge difference around the basket, and Thompson's wearing out and slowing down are legitimate concerns given the heavy minutes he's been handed. As a result, finding a big man who can protect the rim is more than the team's biggest need; it should basically be considered the only issue until it's remedied.
"Clearly we came into the year talking about our need for rim protection before Andy got injured," general manager David Griffin told Swartz. "I think it's very clear we have a need for more size. Our team is versatile in that we can play multiple positions, but we're not terribly big, so I'd like to improve that."
Obviously, there's more wrong with this squad. Adding one player who can swat away shots and turn driving guards out of the paint isn't going to fix every issue affecting the Cavaliers. But that addition would make a huge difference for the defense and would have a nice trickle-down effect for the perimeter players who no longer have to worry so much about allowing penetration and can take more risks while helping off their assignments with more frequency.
But can the Cavs actually get their hands on one in a trade?
Movable Assets
There are a few quality centers out there who would be nice additions to the Cleveland roster—Kosta Koufos and Timofey Mozgov are nice options, as are lesser players like Brandan Wright. But finding the assets necessary to land those guys will be rather difficult.
After scanning the Cavaliers' collection of players up and down, it's pretty tough to find players with lots of appeal.
Panicking and trading Kevin Love would be ridiculous, as it's far too soon to give up a major part of the Cleveland core, even if the former Minnesota Timberwolf has struggled to adjust to his new home. Beyond that, the Cavaliers might be able to tempt other teams with a young guard like Matthew Dellavedova or Joe Harris, but those youthful backcourt members aren't intriguing enough to command a rim-protecting big in return.
Dion Waiters is still the only player who can move the needle, though he's had a rough go of things this season, averaging just 10.5 points, 1.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game while shooting 40.4 percent from the field and 25.6 percent from beyond the arc. Upside and all, the former Syracuse standout has developed such a negative reputation for his ball-stopping ways and inefficient scoring that it would still be tough to move him for anything even remotely valuable, even if he remains the most appealing trade asset.
If the Cavaliers are really going to get someone who can change their fortunes, they're going to have to include draft picks. And even that is problematic.
Cleveland has access to its own first-round pick in 2015. However, it can't be traded because the franchise has already dealt next year's selection to the Boston Celtics, and the Stepien Rule indicates that back-to-back first-round picks can't be traded. Griffin also has the Memphis Grizzlies' first-round pick in 2015 to play with, but it's protected for the non-lottery selections and likely won't be conveyed until 2017, which makes it far less appealing.
With all the incoming second-round picks properly protected and the Cavs already set to deal their own to the Utah Jazz, including draft-day assets won't really help out this struggling squad in its quest to find a viable trading partner.
No Game-Changing Trades
Devoid of many pieces that can win over another franchise and convince those in charge to part ways with a valuable big man, the Cavaliers are stuck without an ability to make any game-changing trades. However, that doesn't mean they're out of options.
First of all, they have some room to absorb a decent-sized salary, as Swartz details:
"If one positive aspect came out of Varejao's injury, it's that the Cavaliers asked for and were granted a $4.9 million disabled player exception, per Marc Stein of ESPN.com. They can use this to trade for or sign a player whose salary falls below this amount. Cleveland also possesses a $5.3 million trade exception, stemming from the preseason deal of Keith Bogans to the Philadelphia 76ers.
While the pair cannot be combined, they do represent two unique opportunities to add talent without having to send any back in return. The disabled player exception expires on March 10 (after the February 19 trade deadline), while the trade exception can be used until September 28.
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He goes on to suggest that the Cavaliers could look at players like Bismack Biyombo, Samuel Dalembert and Ian Mahinmi, as all three are shot-blocking presences who play on teams without much hope of competing during the 2014-15 campaign. But acquiring any of the three would still require Griffin to part ways with something, as he's not going to convince the Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks or Indiana Pacers, respectively, to give up a rotation center for absolutely nothing.
There are also some options on the free-agent market, as veterans like Jermaine O'Neal, Kenyon Martin and Emeka Okafor still haven't found teams to play for in 2014-15, if they even choose to return to the NBA at all. For example, Okafor might sit out the entire year to allow his neck injury to recover completely, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
O'Neal would be a particularly strong addition, as he's less than a year removed from playing highly effective basketball. While with the Golden State Warriors last season, the former All-Star held the opposition to 48.6 percent shooting at the rim on six attempts per game, via NBA.com's SportVU data. The issue with O'Neal, however, is that the Cavs would have to convince him that they offer more championship promise than a team that's better right now: the Dallas Mavericks.
So what happens if the Cavaliers can't make a trade or find a free agent willing to come to northeast Ohio? If that's the case, it's still not quite time to panic. Internal improvement can take place during the rest of this season, even if rim protection will always be an issue.
Remember, newly formed teams with so many major pieces entering the equation rarely gain too much steam right away. There's always an adjustment period, and though the Cavaliers quite clearly haven't been an exception to that rule, it's still far too early to blow things up or rule them out entirely.
Cleveland remains on pace to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. My FATS projections (full explanation here) are a bit more pessimistic than the team's current win percentage and have the Cavs winning just 40 games, but even that's still going to be good enough to get into the playoffs.
And from there, anything can happen on a team that still has three players on the roster who are capable of taking over games.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
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